Demand forecasting involves estimating future demand using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative methods rely on expert opinions from salespeople, executives, and market research to forecast demand. Quantitative methods use historical sales data and statistical analysis techniques like regression analysis and time series methods like simple moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing to mathematically model and forecast future demand. Accurately forecasting demand is important for organizations to plan production levels, budget finances, set sales targets, and make strategic business decisions.
Predicting future sales is intended to control the number of existing stock, so the lack or excess stock can be minimized. When the number of sales can be accurately predicted, then the fulfillment of consumer demand can be prepared in a timely and cooperation with the supplier company can be maintained properly so that the company can avoid losing sales and customers. This study aims to propose a model to predict the sales quantity (multi-products) by adopting the Recency-Frequency-Monetary (RFM) concept and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method. The measurement of sales prediction accuracy in this study using a standard measurement of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), which is the most important criteria in analyzing the accuracy of the prediction. The results indicate that the average MAPE value of the model was high (3.22%), so this model can be referred to as a sales prediction model.
Predicting future sales is intended to control the number of existing stock, so the lack or excess stock can be minimized. When the number of sales can be accurately predicted, then the fulfillment of consumer demand can be prepared in a timely and cooperation with the supplier company can be maintained properly so that the company can avoid losing sales and customers. This study aims to propose a model to predict the sales quantity (multi-products) by adopting the Recency-Frequency-Monetary (RFM) concept and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method. The measurement of sales prediction accuracy in this study using a standard measurement of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), which is the most important criteria in analyzing the accuracy of the prediction. The results indicate that the average MAPE value of the model was high (3.22%), so this model can be referred to as a sales prediction model.
Interventions required to meet business objectives - from Forecasting Methods,
Forecast Accuracy / Error Reduction,
Integrate – Sales Forecast / Production to undertaking a CPFR
Fuzzy sequential model for strategic planning of small and medium scale indus...TELKOMNIKA JOURNAL
The use of strategic planning can be an alternative solution to improve industrial performance. In small and medium scale industries especially in apple chips industries, strategic planning helps to know the current industry situation and the steps that must be taken to overcome the existing problems. This study aimed to develop an improvement strategies using Fuzzy Sequential Modeling (FSM) model. FSM model was consisted a SWOT analysis, Root Cause Analysis (RCA), Bolden’s Taxonomy and fuzzy AHP. Based on SWOT analysis, the external factors of threats was the similar business competition and low purchasing power. RCA described the issues that needed to be fixed using Bolden’s Taxonomy as the reference for determining the action plans and produce four OIA (Open Improvement Area) there are old technology machines and equipment, difficulty of enterprise development, ineffective marketing media and low market share. The strategic planning was determined using Fuzzy AHP based on OIA and ABC enterprise needs to improve the low market share and ineffective marketing strategy.
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Elective production management (part -1)smumbahelp
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The presentation describes demand forecasting, characteristics of forecasting, subjective forecasting, time series based forecasting, forecasting errors and seasonal adjustments with examples.
Interventions required to meet business objectives - from Forecasting Methods,
Forecast Accuracy / Error Reduction,
Integrate – Sales Forecast / Production to undertaking a CPFR
Fuzzy sequential model for strategic planning of small and medium scale indus...TELKOMNIKA JOURNAL
The use of strategic planning can be an alternative solution to improve industrial performance. In small and medium scale industries especially in apple chips industries, strategic planning helps to know the current industry situation and the steps that must be taken to overcome the existing problems. This study aimed to develop an improvement strategies using Fuzzy Sequential Modeling (FSM) model. FSM model was consisted a SWOT analysis, Root Cause Analysis (RCA), Bolden’s Taxonomy and fuzzy AHP. Based on SWOT analysis, the external factors of threats was the similar business competition and low purchasing power. RCA described the issues that needed to be fixed using Bolden’s Taxonomy as the reference for determining the action plans and produce four OIA (Open Improvement Area) there are old technology machines and equipment, difficulty of enterprise development, ineffective marketing media and low market share. The strategic planning was determined using Fuzzy AHP based on OIA and ABC enterprise needs to improve the low market share and ineffective marketing strategy.
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Elective production management (part -1)smumbahelp
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call us at : 08263069601
The presentation describes demand forecasting, characteristics of forecasting, subjective forecasting, time series based forecasting, forecasting errors and seasonal adjustments with examples.
ForecastingDiscuss the different types of forecasts to include tim.pdfamolmahale23
Forecasting
Discuss the different types of forecasts to include time-series, causal, and qualitative models.
When might a researcher or project manager utilize exponential smoothing?
What benefit does a Delphi technique provide when working with qualitative-based decision
making?
Solution
Forecasting is basically the process of estimating or predicting the future trend, based on the
trend and information of the past and the present.Forecasting is a calculated assumption of how
the trend is going to be in a future date based on what we saw in the past and what we are
observing in the present scenario.
Time series methods:
These methods use historical data to assume future trends.
There are various time series methods such as,
1)Simple Moving Average Method: it is commonly used in technical analysis of financial data
such as stock prices,trading volumes or returns.Among the most popular technical indicators,
moving averages are used to gauge the direction of the current trend.It is calculated by averaging
a number of past data points. Once determined, the resulting average is then plotted onto a chart
in order to allow traders to look at smoothed data rather than focusing on the day-to-day price
fluctuations that are inherent in all financial markets.
As new values become available, the oldest data points must be dropped from the set and new
data points must come in to replace them. Thus, the data set is constantly \"moving\" to account
for new data as it becomes available. This method of calculation ensures that only the current
information is being accounted for.
for example, to calculate a basic 10-day moving average you would add up the closing prices
from the past 10 days and then divide the result by 10. The average thus obtained is plotted on a
chart. As the time progresses, we replace the first variable with the latest variable available ie.
latest closing price of 11th day, therefore getting a new avaerage. We plot this one too in the
chart. The chart thus formed gives a trend which is used for forecasting future movements.
2)Exponentially smoothed moving average:
Over the years, technicians have found two problems with the simple moving average. The first
problem lies in the time frame of the moving average (MA). Most technical analysts believe that
price action, the opening or closing stock price, is not enough on which to depend for properly
predicting buy or sell signals of the MA\'s crossover action. To solve this problem, analysts now
assign more weight to the most recent price data by using the exponentially smoothed moving
average (EMA).It is a type of infinite impulse response filter that applies weighting factors
which decrease exponentially. The weighting for each older datum decreases exponentially,
never reaching zero.
The exponentially smoothed moving average addresses both of the problems associated with the
simple moving average. First, the exponentially smoothed average assigns a greater weight to the
more recent data..
Demand Forecasting is the process in which historical sales data is used to develop an estimate of an expected forecast of customer demand. To businesses, Demand Forecasting provides an estimate of the amount of goods and services that its customers will purchase in the foreseeable future.
There are many types for forecast the future demand of the company. Delphi Method, Opinion Poll method, survey method etc...
Quantitative Math - MATH 132
Credits: Group 4 Reporters S.Y. 2015-2016
The ppt has animations, you'll appreciate the presentation if you'll download it. Thank you
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
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Who is a pi merchant?
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This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
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There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
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Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
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Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
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Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
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How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
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@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
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A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
2. “Demand estimation (forecasting) may be defined as a process
of finding values for demand in future time periods.”-
According to Evan J. Douglas.
“The act of forecasting is of great benefit to all who take
part in the process and is the best means of ensuring
adaptability to changing circumstances. The collaboration of
all concerned lead to a unified front, an understanding of the
reasons for decisions and a broadened outlook”.- According
to Henry Fayol.
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 2
3. Preparing the budget proposal
To Fulfilling objectives organization
Stabilizing production and employability
Future Expanding organizations
Taking correct Management Decisions
Evaluating Performance appraisal
Increasing government revue
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 3
4. Helpful in deciding to enter a new market or not.
Determining the sales territories.
Helpful in determining productivity.
Determining the product pricing strategy.
In decide the number of sales persons required to
achieve the sales objective.
Assessing the effect of a proposed marketing
programmed.
Product mix decisions.
Deciding the channels of Distribution
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 4
5. The following factors are to be considered for while going demand
forecasting:
Product Price
Purchasing power of customers
Demography
Replacement demand
Credit conditions
Conditions within the industry
Socio economic conditions.
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 5
6. Methods or Techniques of Forecasting
The forecasting techniques generally classified two
types:
1. Qualitative methods
2. Quantitative methods.
Forecasting methods use mathematical model and
existing historical data and experiences of the veterans
or combination of these two.
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 6
7. I. Qualitative or Judgmental Method
1. Sales force opinion
2. Executive opinion
3. Delphi Technique
4. Market Research
5. Customer survey
II. Quantitative or causal Method
1. Linear Regression
2. Time Series
3. Simple Average
4. Weighted Average
5. Exponential smoothing
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 7
8. I. Judgment or Qualitative Methods
Qualitative methods use the opinions of the veterans which are
translated in to action here no historical data are used only expert
opinions, survey reports and feedback from sales force are used to
estimate and forecast.
A) Sales Force Estimate
Sales force in their respective territories provides feedback on the sales
which are used estimate the expected sales. Many sales force feedbacks
are consider making companies overall sales estimate this would be
accurate as sale man would be in direct contact with customers.
Merits:
Can easily estimate product and services the customer would avail as
sales person would be direct contact with customers.
Forecasting for the new product will be very easier especially in
industrial market.
Demerits:
It is a completely subjective method.
The sales person may give the lower estimates if the estimates alone
are used to set their sales quotas.
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 8
9. B) Executive opinion
Executive opinion would be used mostly on technical
fore casting or modify the existing forecast due to
unforced seen events. This may include the opinion from
a single person or more than one person.
Merits:
Forecast may be made quickly and economically.
Much more factual than made from consumer opinion
and sales force method.
Demerits:
It is very subjective and hence forecast lacks scientific
reality.
The executives may rate recent experiences more heavily
than more distant once which may result in too much
optimism or pessimism regarding future sales.
It takes more time and hence it will incur high expense.
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 9
10. C) Market research
Market research uses methods for identifying customer interest. The
methods used can be market surveys which as series of questions are
answer by customers. Other methods could be.
Survey questionnaire covering economic and demographic information
from each person interviewed.
Gathering the customer interest by communicating through telephone
polling, mailings, or personal interviews.
Merits
The new entry products especially introduce for the first time.
Sales f
Demerits
Sales forecast data are projected on the basis of results of a part of the
segment or the market.
It takes long time to test the market.
orecast is based on actual results hence forecast is more reliable.
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 10
11. D) Delphi method
The Delphi method is process were group of experts provide
their estimate based on the experience and logical thinking.
Generally this method is used to forecast for a long term or for
new product.
The group of experts will report individually to the
coordinator and give their opinions. Hence experts will not
know about the opinion provide by others. The coordinator
will logically take a decision to select the best opinions.
Merits
Changes in society.
Government regulations.
The competitive environment.
Demerits
There would be lot of opinions and coordinator may take a
long time to assess and select the best one.
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 11
12. II. Quantitative Methods (or) casual methods:-
In this method huge historical data are used in
scientific way to analysis a future demand and
competitiveness of the products. Statistical methods
used are generally group under time series analysis.
Few of them are given below.
A)Regression Methods
In these methods various formulas are formulated and
formulas provided relationship between the variables
consider. This has many types. Few of them are given
below.
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 12
13. (i)Linear regression
Linear regression is a mathematical technique that uses formulas similar to a straight
line. Here two variables one is independent and other one is dependents are related. This is
given as below.
y=a + b x
Where:
y = dependent variable
x = independent variable
a = y-intercept of the line
b = slope of the line.
(ii) Multiple Regression
When dependent variable has more than one independent variable than multiple regression
methods is used. Now the relationship between dependent variables and independent variable
is given as follows.
Y= A0+ A1 X1 +A2 X2 +………+ An Xn
Where
Y = dependent variable
A0 = the intercept
A1,… An = Parameter representing the contribution of independent variable
X1 ,…Xn= Independent variable
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 13
14. (b)Time series methods:-
Here for a given periods of time varies methods to
calculate future demand are formulated. Few of them
are as follows.
(i) Simple Moving Averages:
The demands for the given periods of time are
considered and their summation is divided by the no
of time periods considers would provide demand for
the next
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 14
15. (ii) Weighted Moving Averages:
Here for a given period of time T is divided into n number of periods the
demand for this periods are calculated as follows.
The weighted averages for say M number of periods are considered.
Demand for the first M number of periods are totaled and divided by M to
get the demand for M th periods.
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 15
Periods(N) Sales Demands Periods(N) Sales
1. 31 - 1. 31
2. 35 - 2. 35
3. 33 (31+35+33)/3=33 3. 33
4. 40 (35+33+40)/3=36 4. 40
5. 32 (33+40+32)/3=35 5. 32
16. c) Exponential smoothing.
Here the exponential smoothing relationship exists
between the independent and dependent variables. This
given by.
Y=ex
This is further simplified
Y=C*X1+(1-C)*X2
Where
Y= future demand or next demand
X1= demand of the latest period
X2= demand of the last but one period.(previous periods of
last one).
C= smoothening constant and varies between zero and one.
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 16
18. Solution:
Let us four period average as the initial forecast year 5
while smoothing constant of C=0.1
S5=(S1+S2+S3+S4)
=(3+4+6+5)=18/4=4.5
S6= c*S5+(1-c)*Smt
S6 = 0.1*5+(1-0.1) 4.5
=4.55
Similarly: the sales for year 7 can be work out.
S6 = c*S6+(1-c)*Smt
= 0.1*8.6+(1-0.1)*4.55
=4.955
Mr.K.Vinothkumar, Ass Prof,
Mechanical, SRMIST, Ramapuram 18