HighLights: Indian Rupee recovered from two day lows to end at 66.33 on Friday US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment plunged to 89-mark in April Euro Zone Prelim Flash GDP expanded by 0.6 percent in Q1 of 2016 UK’s Net Lending to Individuals rose to 9.3 billion Pounds in March

1. Currency Highlights
02nd
May’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee recovered from two day lows to end at 66.33 on Friday
 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment plunged to 89-mark in April
 Euro Zone Prelim Flash GDP expanded by 0.6 percent in Q1 of 2016
 UK’s Net Lending to Individuals rose to 9.3 billion Pounds in March
Indian Rupee recovered from its two day losing streak and gained around 19 paise
to end at 66.33 against the US dollar on Friday. The currency had appreciated on
account of fresh selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Further, persistent in-
flow of foreign capital led to positive movement in the currency.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.28 to 66.5650 in Friday’s trading session. The
currency had dropped around 8 paise or 0.12 percent in previous trading session.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reference rate for dollar was seen at 66.5176 and
Euro stood at 75.7303 on Friday.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee dropped against the pound sterling to finish at
97.05 from 96.79 yesterday. It moved down further against the euro, to 75.60 per
euro from 75.50 previously. The domestic currency dropped further against the yen
to 61.92 per 100 yens from 61.55 yesterday.
US Dollar Index plunged around 0.8 percent in Friday’s trading session due to unfavourable economic data from the country. However,
sharp downside in the currency was prevented due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for
the low yielding currency.
US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index was at 0.1 percent in March as against a rise of 0.2 percent in February. Em-
ployment Cost Index remained unchanged at 0.6 percent in Q1 of 2016. Personal Spending fell marginally to 0.1 percent in March from 0.2
percent a month ago. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 3.2 points to 50.4-mark in April when compared to 53.6-level
in March. Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment plunged by 0.7 points to 89-mark in April with respect to 89.7-level in
March. Revised UoM Inflation Expectations was at 2.8 percent in April as compared to 2.7 percent in March.
Euro against dollar grew around 0.9 percent on Friday on account of weakness in the dollar index. However, weak global market senti-
ments coupled with mixed economic data from the region capped sharp gains in the currency.
German Retail Sales declined by 1.1 percent in March as against a drop of 0.4 percent in February. Spanish Flash Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) unchanged at 0.8 percent in Q1 of 2016. Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate fell to 11.4 percent in March from 11.6 percent a
month ago. Euro Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate declined by 0.2 percent in April. Core CPI Flash Estimate dropped to 0.8
percent in April with respect to 1 percent in March. Euro Zone Prelim Flash GDP expanded by 0.6 percent in Q1 of 2016 as compared to 0.3
percent in Q4 of 2015. Euro Zone Unemployment Rate declined to 10.2 percent in March from 10.3 percent a month ago.
The Sterling Pound against dollar dropped marginally in Friday’s trade on account of weak global market sentiments. However, weaker dol-
lar index along with favourable economic data from the country cushioned sharp fall in the currency.
UK’s Net Lending to Individuals rose to 9.3 billion Pounds in March with respect to 5 billion Pounds in February.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated by more than 1.5 percent in yesterday’s trade due to rise in risk aversion in global market sen-
timents which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 92.94 93.05 (0.11) (0.12)
USD/INR(Spot) 66.46 66.42 0.04 0.06
USD/INR(NseApr) 66.67 66.88 (0.21) (0.31)
EUR/INR(Spot) 75.57 76.07 (0.50) (0.66)
EUR/INR(NseApr) 75.98 75.89 0.09 0.12
GBP/INR(Spot) 97.10 97.08 0.02 0.02
GBP/INR(NseApr) 97.47 97.27 0.20 0.21
JPY/INR(NseApr) 62.17 61.81 0.36 0.58
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart, JPYINR has formed shooting star shape candlestick
which is a bearish reversal candlestick. Though Pair needs to give
close below the low of candlestick which is placed at 62.10 level for
downside move confirmation.
A daily momentum indicator RSI reading is at 65.45 marks with posi-
tive crossover, however RSI has strong resistance of its downward
falling trend line, which point out for negative breath in the pair.
On weekly chart, JPYINR has formed Bullish engulfing candlestick,
however on upper side Pair has strong resistance of 62.52 level, a
level from where Pair gave downside movement upto the level of 52
level. So for further upside movement, Pair needs to give close
above this level.
A momentum indicator RSI reading is at 66.49 marks with positive
crossover, which point out for positive breath in the Pair.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
On hourly chart, USDINR has been trading above its 21 day mov-
ing average which is placed at 66.63, which shows that near term
trend is up. Even since last three days, volume has been increasing
which is showing upside momentum is building up in the Pair. How-
ever, Pair has strong resistance on upside at level 67.28 level which
is a 100 day moving average, so any rise upto 67.28 level, it would
become the best-selling opportunity in near term.
A momentum indicator RSI reading is at 46.64 level with positive
crossover, which point out for positive breath in the Pair.
On weekly chart, USDINR has formed doji candlestick which is inde-
cisive in nature and doesn’t indicate any particular direction for
coming trading session. However, Pair has been trading below its
21 weeks moving average since last seven weeks, which is showing
weakness in trend.
A Weekly Momentum indicator RSI reading is at 49.16 level with
negative crossover, which point out for negative breath in the Pair.
Currency Highlights
02nd
May’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.18 66.46 66.56 66.74 66.84 67.02 67.30
JPYINR 61.67 61.95 62.06 62.23 62.34 62.51 62.79

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
02nd
May’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
On daily chart, EURINR has formed doji candlestick which is indeci-
sive in nature and doesn’t indicate any clear direction for next trad-
ing session. However, Pair has been trading above its 21 day mov-
ing average which indicates that trend is still up and could acceler-
ates its upside movement.
A momentum indicator RSI reading is at 60.25 level with positive
crossover, which point out for positive breath in the Pair.
On broader basis, EURINR has formed bullish engulfing candlestick
which is a bullish indication. Moreover, Pair has been trading above
its 21 & 100 week moving average, which showing that trend is up
and Pair could accelerates its upside movement. So any plunge
upto the level of 74.69 & 73.88 level would become the best buy-
ing opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI reading is at 57.74 level with positive
crossover, which point out for positive breath in the Pair.
Technical View:
On daily chart, GBPINR has formed spinning top candlestick on top
level, which might become bearish reversal signal if Pair gives close
below the low of candlestick which is placed at 97.30 level. Moreo-
ver, Pair has been facing strong resistance of its 100 day moving
average which is placed at 97.49 level, which shows that short to
medium term trend is down. So one should wait for clear entry in
the Pair.
A momentum indicator RSI reading is at 63.26 level with positive
crossover, which point out for positive breath in the Pair.
On weekly chart, Pair has formed bullish belt hold shape candle-
stick. However on upper side, Pair has strong resistance of its 50
weeks moving average which is placed at 97.97 level which shows
that near to short term trend is down. So any rise upto the level of
98.00, it would become the best selling opportunity for near term
trade.
A weekly RSI reading is at 50.26 level with positive crossover,
which point out for positive breath in the Pair.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 96.32 96.95 97.21 97.58 97.84 98.21 98.84
EURINR 75.38 75.71 75.85 76.04 76.18 76.37 76.70

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
02.05.16 4:45am FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
02.05.16 12:45pm Spanish Manufacturing PMI 53.4 53.0 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
02.05.16 3:00pm German Buba President
Weidmann Speaks
02.05.16 7:30pm ECB President Draghi Speaks
02.05.16 7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 51.8 51.6 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
02nd
May’2016

5. Currency Highlights
02nd
May’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Vikas
Chaudhari
Digitally signed by Vikas Chaudhari
DN: cn=Vikas Chaudhari, o=Choice Equity
Broking Pvt Ltd, ou=Research Department,
email=vikas.chaudhari@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.05.02 09:08:22 +05'30'