This document outlines a study on future work and technology scenarios for 2050 conducted by The Millennium Project. It discusses three possible global scenarios - a mixed scenario where changes are irregular, a political turmoil scenario with increased unemployment, and a self-actualization scenario where universal basic income and education focus on increasing intelligence. It also describes the study methodology, which includes literature review, scenarios development, workshops in various countries, and analysis of results to develop policy recommendations, especially regarding education and learning. The goal is to help governments and societies better prepare for potential impacts of technological changes on employment.

1. Future Work/Technology
2050 Global Scenarios
and
Implications for Education and Learning
for the Color of STEM
April 7, 2018
Jerome C. Glenn, The Millennium Project

2. Inevitability of New Economics
• Concentration of wealth is increasing
• Income gaps are widening
• Employmentless economic growth seems the new norm
• Return on Investment in capital and technology is usually
better than labor
• Future technologies can replace much of human labor
• Long-term structural unemployment is a “business as
usual” or “surprise free” trend forecast
• What can we do about this?

3. Future Work/Technology 2050 Study
1. Literature and Related Research Review
2. Real-Time Delphi
3. Three Global Scenario Drafts to 2050
4. Separate RTDelphi Feedback on each Scenario
5. Final Scenarios, Policy Issues, and Workshop Considerations
6. National Workshops to Explore Long-range Strategies
7. Collect results of the national planning workshops, analyze &
synthesize results
8. Final Report for Public Discussion

4. Work/Tech Global Scenarios 2050
1. It’s Complicated - A Mixed Bag
2. Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair
3. If Humans Were Free – The Self-Actualizing Economy
Each scenario is about 10 pages of detailed cause & effect
sequences that illustrate decisions

5. Future Work/Tech 2050 Workshops
Initial workshops Initial workshops In planning Exploratory talks
1. Argentina (two, and series) 11. Italy Australia Croatia
2. Bolivia (series) 12. The Netherlands (two) China Dubai, UAE
3. Brazil (Sao Paolo) 13. Mexico (two) Kenya Egypt
4. Bulgaria 14. Poland Peru (2030 study first) Georgia
5. European Foresight Network 15. Spain (four: Basque & Madrid) Pakistan India
6. Finland 16. South Korea (two) Romania Iran
7. Germany (series) 17. Uruguay (series in progress) Slovakia Montenegro
8. Greece 18. Venezuela South Africa (1/18) Slovenia
9. Hungary Sri Lanka Turkey
10. Israel (two workshops) United States (4/25) United Kingdom
Zambia

6. Workshop Discussion Groups
Culture
Business &
Labor
S &TGovernment
Education &
Learning

7. Charrette
Workshop
Process
From the whole to the
parts – back and forth –
so the parts are
consistence with the
whole set of strategiesPress
Conference

8. Education & Learning Recommendations
• Make increasing intelligence an objective of education.
• In parallel to STEM, create self-paced inquiry-based learning for self-
actualization; retrain teachers as coaches using new AI tools.
• Begin shift from mastering a profession to mastering skills.
• Free Tele-education everywhere; ubiquitous, life-long learning
systems.
• Increased focus on developing creativity, critical thinking, human
relations, philosophy, entrepreneurship (individual and teams), art,
self-employment, social harmony, ethics, and values.
• Know thyself to build and lead a meaningful working life with self-
assessment of progress on one’s own goals and objectives.

9. Education & Learning Recommendations
• Intergenerational learning exchanges sharing competencies of elders
with youth.
• Consider experimental alternative education/learning models like
Finland’s education model that develops creativity, imagination, self
actualization.
• Utilize robots and AI in education.
• On-demand learning (also bite-sized) in learning portfolios.
• Unify universities and vocational trainings.
• Focus on exponential technologies and team entrepreneurship.
• Empathy training.

10. Education & Learning Recommendations
• Teach technology while preserving thinking abilities.
• Support hybrid education systems: STEM + social + economy.
• Change curriculum at all levels to normalize self-employment.
• Transition from teaching centers to learning centers.
• Benefit corporations to intervene in education systems.
• Management of tech effects on students.
• More future-oriented professional guidance.
• 2030-50 Private/public and machines/humans blurring make ethics
the cultural theme.
• Support Education X-Prize and other efforts to reach poorer regions.

11. Three Forms of Artificial Intelligence
1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence
2. Artificial General Intelligence
3. Artificial Super Intelligence
These three
are often
lumped
together as
AI
This
confuses
the
discussion
about AI

12. Next Technologies (NT): Imagine How NT
Synergies Will Shape Your Company
Artificial Intelligence
Robotics
Synthetic Biology & Genomics
Computational Science
Cloud & Big Data Analytics
Artificial & Augmented Reality
Nanotechnology (two kinds)
IoT, Tele-Everything & Tele-
Everybody, the Semantic Web
Quantum computing
Tele-Presence, Holographic
Communications
Intelligence augmentation
Collective Intelligence
Blockchain
3D/4D Printing Materials/Biology
Drones, Driverless Cars (and
other autonomous vehicles)
Conscious-Technology
Synergies Among These

13. The Old Way of Seeing the Future of
Technologies: Linear and Separate
Artificial
Intelligence
Robotic
manufacturing
Computational Science
3-D4-D Priting
Nanotechnology
Quantum computing
Synthetic Biology
Drones
Artificial General
Intelligence
Tele-Everything &
Tele-Everybody
the SemanticWeb

14. Future Way of Seeing Future of
Technologies: Integration and Synergies

15. Next Smart
phone?
And how many
functions of your
smart phone will
this replace?
What new functions? Face recognition?
Zoom vision? Aggression warnings?

16. Future Synergies
Robotic
manufacturing
Drones
Quantum
computing
Robotic
manufacturing
3D，4D Printing
Augmented Reality
Tele-Presence
Holographics
Nanotechnology
Artificial General
Intelligence
Tele-Everything
Tele-Everybody
the SemanticWeb
Increasing
individual and
collective
intelligence
Synthetic Biology
Nanotechnology

17. Future Synergies
Artificial
Intelligence
Robotic
manufacturing
Quantum computing
Drones
Future
Technology
Robotic
manufacturing
3D，4D Printing
Augmented Reality,
Tele-Presence,
Holographics

18. What is possible… will change
• Moore’s Law
• +
• Artificial Intelligence acceleration to AGI
• +
• Computational science
• +
• Synergies among NT
• These four together will change what we think is possible.

19. Global Employment Assumptions
Workforce 3 billion 2000; 6 billion 2050
Scenario 1
Business as Usual
Scenario 2
Political Turmoil
Scenario 3
Self-Actualization
Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 1 Billion
Self-Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 3 Billion
Unemployed or
in transition
1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion
Informal
Economy
1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion

20. Scenario 1:
It’s Complicated – A Mixed Bag
• A business-as-usual trend projection
• Increasing acceleration of change with both intelligence and stupidity
• Irregular adoption of advance technology
• Major employment growth in Biotech Industries
• High unemployment where governments did not create long-range
strategies
• Mixed success on the use of universal basic income.
• Giant corporations grow beyond government control, in this
government-corporate, virtual-3D, multi-polar world of 2050.

21. IoT AI Contact Lens – always in Virtual and
Augmented Reality connected to the word
Hands-free, phone-free,
laptop-free, AI-Human
symbiosis

22. Scenario 2:
Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair
• Political grid-lock increases social polarization, prevents decisionmaking
• Political, economic, environmental migrations increase ethnic conflicts
• Governments did not anticipate impacts of artificial general intelligence:
hence, no strategies to address increasing mass unemployment
• Unemployment exploded in the 2030s leads to 2050 in political turmoil
• Financial systems cannot support ageing societies, financial crises
• World order has deteriorated into a combination of nation-states, mega-
corporations, local militias, terrorist groups, and organized crime

23. Scenario 2 Jobless Migrations

24. In Scenario 2 AI makes this Combination
Far More Powerful…
Organized
Crime
CorruptionTerrorism
Information
Warfare
…Making Democracy
and Free Markets…
…An Illusion

25. Scenario 3:
If Humans Were Free
the Self-Actualization Economy
Governments did anticipate the impacts of artificial general intelligence
Conducted extensive research on how to phase in universal basic
income systems
Increasing intelligence becomes a goal of education
Self-employment promoted
Artists, media moguls, and entertainers helped to foster cultural change
from an employment culture to a self-actualization economy.

26. Your Personal AI Avatar searches
the web while you sleep…
… then wakes you
up in the morning
….with all kinds of
interesting things to
do, some for
income, some
because the are just
fun, and some that
are both.

27. Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991
By 2030-2050 millions of
people could become
augmented geniuses, and
what could we create?
Consider what these two geniuses created!

28. Human Augmentation: AI-Brain Interface
as a “Neural Lace” (term coined by Elon Musk)
TheWorld
Artificial
Intelligence
Human
Brain
“Neural lace," a mesh of electronics
[and photonics] that will allow AI
and the brain to work together.
This could help human brains keep
up with future enhancements in AI.
https://youtu.be/ZrGPuUQsDjo

29. … Acts like a TransInstitution
UN
Organizations
NGOs
and
Foundations
Universities
GovernmentsCorporations
The Millennium
Project

30. 63 Nodes...and two regional networks in
Europe and Latin America
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews,
special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
Tunisia
Yerevan
Sri Lanka

31. Preface
Executive Summary
Ch 1 Global Challenges
Ch 2 2017 State of the Future Index
Ch 3 Future Terrorism & Deterrence
Ch 4 Work/Tech 2050 Scenarios
and Workshop Strategies
Ch 5 Conclusions
Appendix

32. 39 Chapters
37 Different Methods
1,300 pages
Largest collection of
Internationally peer-
reviewed methods to
explore the future
ever assembled in
one source

34. Current and Previous Sponsors/Clients:
• Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Egypt (2013-2015)
• AGAHI Pakistan (2016-18)
• Alan F. Kay & Hazel Henderson Foundation (1996–2000)
• Amana Institute, São Paulo, Brazil (2004)
• Applied Materials, Santa Clara, California (2002–09)
• Argentina Ministry of Agriculture (2012)
• Azerbaijan State Economic University (2009-2016)
• City of Gimcheon (via UN Future Forum, So. Korea) (2009–10)
• Deloitte & Touche LLP, Cleveland, Ohio (1998–09)
• The Diwan of His Highness the Amir of Kuwait (2010–11)
• Environmental Law Institute (2017)
• Ford Motor Company (1996–97, 2005–06)
• Foundation for the Future, Bellevue, Washington (1997–98, 1999–2000,
2007–08)
• General Motors, Warren, Michigan (1998–2003)
• Government of the Rep. of Korea (via UN Future Forum) (2007–08)
• The Hershey Company (2008–09)
• Hughes Space and Communications, (1997–98, 2000)
• Kuwait Oil Company (via Dar Almashora (2003–04 )
• Kuwait Petroleum Corp. (via Dar Almashora for Consulting) (2005–06)
• Ministry of Communications, Rep. of Azerbaijan (2007–11)
• Ministry of Educ. and Presidential Commission on Education, Republic of
Korea (2007)
• Monsanto Company, St. Louis, Missouri (1996–98)
• Montenegro Ministry of Science and Technology (2012)
• Motorola Corporation, Schaumburg, Illinois (1997)
• NATO, Brussels, Belgium (2016)
• Pioneer Hi-Bred International, West Des Moines, Iowa (1997)
• Rockefeller Foundation (2008–11; 2013)
• Shell International (Royal Dutch Shell Petroleum Company), London, UK
(1997)
• UNESCO, Paris, France (1995, 2008–10)
• United Nations Development Programme, New York, (1993–94)
• United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan (1992–95, 1999–2000)
• Universiti Sains Malaysia (2011)
• U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute, Arlington, Virginia (1996–2011)
• U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. (2000–03)
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Wash., D.C. (1992–93, 1996–97)
• U.S. Department of Defense, Off of the Secretary
• Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (Foresight and
Governance) (2002)
• World Bank (via World Perspectives, Inc. 2008 and GEF Evaluation Office
2012)
• In-kind Sponsors:
• Google
• George Washington University
• Harvard University
• The Smithsonian Institution
• World Future Society
• UNESCO

35. If there is time…

36. 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
How can sustainable development be achieved for all
while addressing global climate change?
How can everyone have sufficient clean water
without conflict?
How can population growth and resources be
brought into balance?
How can genuine democracy emerge
from authoritarian regimes?
How can decisionmaking be enhanced
by integrating improved global
foresight during unprecedented
accelerating change?
How can the global convergence of
information and communications
technologies work for everyone?
How can ethical market economies be
encouraged to help reduce the gap
between rich and poor?
How can the threat of new and reemerging
diseases and immune microorganisms be
reduced?
How can education make humanity more
intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise enough to
address its global challenges?
How can shared values and new security
strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism,
and the use of weapons of mass destruction?
How can the changing status of
women improve the human
condition?
How can growing energy demands
be met safely and efficiently?
How can scientific and technological
breakthroughs be accelerated to improve
the human condition?
How can ethical considerations become more
routinely incorporated into global decisions?
How can transnational organized crime
networks be stopped from becoming
more powerful and sophisticated global
enterprises?
Chapter 1: 15 Global Challenges

39. Chapter 2 State of the Future Index

40. Where are we
winning?
Living longer
Healthier lives
Beating poverty
Wealthier
Education
Water resources
Energy efficiency
Child Mortality
Internet Users

41. Where are
we losing
Environment
social unrest
Terrorism
Corruption
Organized crime

42. Menu Options for each Challenge GFIS
13 Menu options
for each of the15
Global Challenges

44. For further information
The Millennium Project
+1-202-686-5179
Info@Millennium-Project.org
State of the Future 19.1:
http://www.millennium-project.org/state-of-the-future-version-19-1/
Futures Research Methodology 3.0:
http://www.millennium-project.org/publications-2/#method
Global Futures Intelligence System:
http://www.millennium-project.org/projects/global-futures-intelligence-system/