Reviews Millennium Project's Work/Technology 2050: Scenarios and Actions plus preparations for an international assessment for global governance of the transition from artificial narrow intelligence to artificial general intelligence

1. Managing Future Impacts of
Artificial Narrow, General, and Super
Intelligence
Implications for Work and Global Governance
Jerome C. Glenn
The Millennium Project

2. Increasing power and universality of A.I. can
worsen the economics for the majority
• Concentration of wealth is increasing
• Income gaps are widening
• Employmentless economic growth seems the new norm
• Return on Investment in capital and technology is usually
better than labor
• Future technologies can replace much of human labor
• Long-term structural unemployment is a “business as
usual” or “surprise free” trend forecast
• What can we do about this?

3. Future Work/Technology 2050 Study
1. Literature and Related Research Review
2. Real-Time Delphi on questions not asked or poorly answered
3. Three Global Scenario Drafts to 2050
4. Three Separate RTDelphi’s for Feedback on each Scenario
5. Final Scenarios, given for Millennium Project Nodes
6. National Workshops to Explore Long-range Strategies
7. Collect suggestions from the national planning workshops, distilled
in to 93 actions, assess all via five (5) Real-Time Delphi's
8. Final Report for Public Discussion

4. A Three-Year Global Study
on what to do about
Potential Futures for Work
and Technology
Jerome C. Glenn, CEO
The Millennium Project

5. Three Forms of Artificial Intelligence
 Artificial Narrow
Intelligence
 Artificial General
Intelligence
 Artificial Super
Intelligence

6. All these are artificial narrow intelligence
Source and Read short overviews

7. Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) is often
better and faster than humans at:
• Lip reading (LipNet; Deep Mind)
• Flying planes, driving trucks
• Mathematics
• Live voice translation (Microsoft)
• Playing games (Chess: Deep Blue,
Jeopardy & Go: Alpha Go)
• Face recognition
• Medical diagnosis (IBM Watson -
Cancer)
• Reading comprehension speed
(Microsoft and Alibaba)
• Legal analysis (LawGeex)
• Income tax preparation (TurbTax)
• Organizing shipping (Amazon)
• Specific research (Google; Alexa)
• Traffic navigation (Google Maps)
• And AI/robots for repetitive
tasks and large scale data analysis

8. Autonomous Nervous
System & Civilization
Just as the autonomous nervous
system runs much of our body, freeing
the mind to be creative;
AI and other Next Technologies (NT)
will run much of the physical
infrastructure of future civilization
freeing more of humanity to be
creative.

9. Eco-smart Cities
Inter-connected like
the human body

10. Artificial General Intelligence
Source
Source

11. Artificial Super Intelligence sets its own goals
independent of human awareness and understanding

12. Artificial Super Intelligence
“The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the
end of the human race...it would take off on its own and re-
design itself at an ever-increasing rate. Humans, who are
limited by slow biological evolution, couldn’t compete and
would be superseded.”
Stephen Hawking

13. Technological Unemployment
• Artificial Narrow Intelligence will make predictable
unemployment like truck drivers
• Artificial General Intelligence – if it occurs – will make far
more unemployment in many areas less predictable
• AGI may arrive as soon as 2030 to 2050
• This could lead to massive unemployment if we do not begin
to prepare
• Hugh? Didn’t every new age create more jobs than replaced?

14. Each economic transition created
more jobs than those lost
Why is it different this time?
1. the acceleration of technological change
2. the globalization, interactions, and synergies among NTs
3. the existence of a global platform—the Internet—for simultaneous
technology transfer … with far fewer errors in the transfer than in the past
4. standardization of data bases and protocols
5. few plateaus or pauses of change allowing time for individuals and cultures
to adjust to the changes
6. billions of empowered people in relatively democratic free markets able to
initiate activities
7. machines can learn how you do what you do, and then do it better than you.

15. Work/Tech Global Scenarios 2050
1. It’s Complicated - A Mixed Bag
2. Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair
3. If Humans Were Free – The Self-Actualizing Economy
Each scenario is about 10 pages of detailed cause & effect
sequences that illustrate decisions

16. IoT AI Contact Lens – always in Virtual and
Augmented Reality connected to the world
Hands-free, phone-free,
laptop-free, AI-Human
symbiosis

17. The next Smart phone?
Mojo Vision has $125 million invested
Connect the smart city to your eye to
guild mobility, avoid traffic, remind you
of appointments, events, and people.
14,000 pixels per square inch.

18. Human Augmentation: AI-Brain Interface
as a “Neural Lace”
The
World
Artificial
Intelligence
Human
Brain
“Neural lace:” a mesh of
electronics [and photonics] that
will allow AI and the brain to
work together. – Elon Musk
This could help human brains
keep up with future
enhancements in AI.
https://www.neuralink.com/ is hiring now

19. Your Personal AI Avatar searches the
web while you sleep…
… then wakes you up
in the morning ….with
all kinds of interesting
things to do, some for
income, some
because the are just
fun, and some that
are both all with
smart contacts if
needed.

20. What is possible… will change
Moore’s Law & Nielsen's Law
+
Artificial Intelligence acceleration to AGI
+
Computational science
+
Synergies among NT
These four together will change what we think is possible.

21. ANI – AGI Global Governance
It is argued that creating rules for governance of AI too soon will
stifle its development.
Some AGI experts believe it is possible to have AGI as soon as ten
years.
Since it is likely to take ten or more years to
• develop ANI to AGI international agreements
• design an international governance system
• begin implementation
Then it is wise to begin exploring governance approaches now.

22. Proposed Global Governance Study
1. Assess current studies of governance issues, questions, concepts,
and models
2. Conduct Real-Time Delphi (RTD) study on questions not asked or
poorly answered
3. Draft detailed alternative governance scenarios based on RTD
results
4. Review of the feasibility, viability, and effectiveness of the ANI to AGI
governance models in each scenario by the RTD panel; and
5. Produce a report on each step concluding with recommendations for
international governance of the transition from ANI to AGI to
simulate global discussion

23. Some Potential Governance Models
1. IAEA-like model or WTO-like with enforcement powers
2. IPCC-like model in concert with international treaties
3. International S&T Organization (ISTO) as an online real-time global
collective intelligence system; governance by information power
GGCC (Global Governance Coordinating Committees) flexible but
enforced by national sanctions, ad hoc legal rulings in different
countries, and insurance premiums
4. ISO standards affecting international purchases
5. Put different parts of AGI governance under different bodies like ITU,
WTO, WIPO
6. TransInstitution

24. Governance: Some Issues
Should an international agency have access to all AI code to review ethics? And how
to protect the IP of the coder/author
Transparency of governance systems vs trust of elites or third party auditors? UN?
What lessons from regulations, standards, and governance from the IAEA should be
transferred to the governance of the transition from ANI to AGI?
General governance cannot anticipate everything; so, special cases can build up
amendments to rules, standards, treaties, etc. Just as legal judgement is based on
previous decisions and on legislation.
How to reduce the use of ANI to AGI by organized crime and terrorism?
How can/should governance models address geopolitical issues in an AI
development race?
Government spends money on detecting nuclear, bio, chemical, and conventional
weapons; so too will need to do this for AI and learn from IAEA and others.

25. Standards: Some Issues
• Purpose for AGI: Create synergies with humans to continually improve
civilization?
• On what values should AGI standards be based
– Declaration of Human Rights and related UN treaties and protocols?
– Optimize for UN SD Goals (New UN office in the Hague)
Algorithm prejudice – alignment of utility functions and human values
Algorithm ethics audits
Alignment of values and the utility function with future conditions unknown (How
can standards and governance correct undesirable actions unanticipated in
utility functions?) – trace decision tree back to point that lead to the error and re-
write and share with other AI

26. Standards: Some Issues (continued)
Require open source code or audit certification (patent, trade secret?)
Open source AI makes it easier to monitor ethics, but makes it easier for unethical
people to gain an advantage.
Has personal data become a global commons from which insights in medicine etc.
can develop better medical diagnosis?
Should we first evolve ISO standards?

27. China Goal: Lead the World in AI by 2030
Who ever leads AI... rules the world - Putin
Human Brain Projects:
USA, EU, China
Artificial Brains:
IBM, Google, Facebook, Baidu,
Microsoft, Alibaba, Apple, Amazon
The Great Brain
Race is on!

28. These Technologies Could Also Make
This Combination Far More Powerful…
Organized
Crime
Corruption
Terrorism
Information
Warfare
…Making Democracy
and Free Markets…
…An Illusion

29. A few Words about
The Millennium Project

30. … Acts like a TransInstitution
UN
Organizations
NGOs
and
Foundations
Universities
Governments
Corporations
The Millennium
Project
Created in 1996

31. 65 Nodes...and two regional networks in
Europe and Latin America
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews,
special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
Tunisia
Yerevan
Sri Lanka

33. For further information
Info@Millennium-Project.org
The following are resources are available at:
http://www.millennium-project.org
• Work/Technology 2050: Scenarios and Actions
• State of the Future 19.1
• Futures Research Methodology 3.0
• Global Futures Intelligence System