2. F U T U R E S R E S E A R C H M E T H O D O L O G I E S
S p a n i s h t r a n s l a t o r s
3. T H E P R O M I S I N G F U T U R E O F
L AT I N A M E R I C A 2 0 5 0
4. Lydia Garrido
U R U G U A Y
Concepción Olavarrieta
José Cordeiro
V E N E Z U E L A
E S P A Ñ A
Ibon Zugasti
P E R Ú
Fernando Ortega
N O D E C H A I R S
M É X I C O
5.
6. L A T I N A M E R I C A
p r o m i s i n g l a n d o f t h e f u t u r e
O p p o r t u n i t i e s
1. Demografic bonus 2. Nature care: ecodevelopments
3. Multicultural diversity 4. Globalism: respecting native cultures
5. Market 6. Industry
7. Services 8. Tourism
9. Innovation, 10. Science & Technological futures of work
7.
8. 2050 Scenario 1:
It's Complicated- A Mixed Bag.
1. A business-as-usual trend projection of the increasing acceleration of change
with both intelligence and stupidity characterized decisionmaking (or lack of
decisionmaking).
2. Irregular adoption of advanced technology; high unemployment where
governments did not create long-range strategies and mixed success on the use of
universal basic income.
Giant corporation's powers have often grown beyond government control, in this
government-corporate, virtual-3D, multi-polar complex world of 2050.
9. 2050 Scenario 2:
Political/Economic Turmoil - Future Despair
1. Governments did not anticipate the impacts of artificial general intelligence and
had no strategies in place as unemployment exploded in the 2030s leaving the world
of 2050 in political turmoil.
2. Social polarism and political grid-lock in many forms have grown.
3. Global order has deteriorated into a combination of nation-states, mega-
corporations, local militias, terrorism, and organized crime.
10. Scenario 3:
If Humans Were Free - the Self-Actualization Economy.
1. Governments did anticipate:
a) the impacts of artificial general intelligence,
b) conducted extensive research on how to phase in universal basic income
systems, and promoted self-employment.
2. Artists, media moguls, and entertainers helped to foster cultural change from an
employment culture to a self-actualization economy.
11. 1. Which is the focus of your country on
the future of work / technology
2050?
2. Which are the main challenges that
your country is facing for
futures work/technology 2050?
12.
13. DIGITAL CITIES
VI SI ONS & FORESI GHT MODEL S
C o n c e p c i ó n O l a v a r r i e t a
PROSPECTA COLOMBIA 2016
IX CONGRESO INTERNACIONAL DE PROSPECTIVA PARA EL DESARROLLO REGIONAL
“El postconflicto: un nuevo escenario para el desarrollo regional sostenible”
Bogotá, 27 y 28 de octubre de 2016
13
14.
15.
16. Ciudad de México 2050
Ciudad digital y del conocimiento
(Una visión prospectiva en construcción)
MEXICO CITY MEGALOPOLIS
FACING
THE FUTURE
INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE
ASESORIAESPECIALIZADA
16
36. M É X I C O
M o n t e r r e y , S t a t e o f N u e v o L e ó n
2 2 - 2 5 M a r c h 2 0 1 7
3RD.
Annual meeting
36
37.
38.
39.
40. THE FUTURES OF
HAPPINESS
C o n c e p c i ó n O l a v a r r i e t a
H A P P I N E S S P A N E L
M o n t e r r e y M a r c h 2 2 , 2 0 1 7
41. H A P P I N E S S
I S
S U B J E C T I V E ,
I T I S
A N E M O T I O N
P R O D U C E D W H E N A
P E R S O N B E L I E V E S H A S
R E A C H E D A G O A L .
46. RIBER HAPPY
Familia
Trabajo, riqueza y bienestar
Amigos y gente
Ayudar a terceros
Naturaleza y medio ambiente
Viajar
Paz y buen gobierno
Entretenimiento
Otros
50. Falta de Ética
Violencia
Corrupción y abuso de poder
Falta de humanidad y
pobreza
Injusticia
Enfermedad
Problemas emocionales
personales
Problemas de trabajo
Problemas familiares
Problemas económicos
Ignorancia e ineptitud
MEXICO UNHAPPY
52. MILLENNIUM PROJECT
UNHAPPY
Trump: xenofobia, racismo, odio, etc
Mal gobierno, abuso de poder
Violencia, guerras, acoso, terrorismo
Enfermedad
Falta de ética
Pobreza
Corrupción
Contaminación ambiental
Trabajo
Problemas con familia y amigos
Emociones negativas
Otros
54. BUTAN
GNH INDEX
A s s i s t a n c e i n m o n i t o r i n g
n a t i o n a l p r o g r e s s
55. HM Jigme Khesar
Namgyel Wangchuck,
5th King of Bhutan
Our most
important goal is
the peace and
happiness of our
people and the
security and
sovereignty of
our nation.
56. “True true happiness can not exist
while others suffer.
It comes only from serving others,
living in harmony with nature, and
realizing our innate wisdom and
the true and bright nature of our
own minds.”
Prime Minister of Bhutan
HAPPINESS
IS
MULTIDIMENSIONAL
58. Quality of life and dimensions of
Bhutan's Gross National Happiness
Index
1. Health
2. Education
3. Standard of material life
4. Time use
5. Governance
6. Vitality of the community
7. Ecological diversity
8. Culture & spirituality
9. Emotional well-being
59. Weighing:
The 9 domains are weighted equally
There are 33 subdomains
The subjective subdomains have light weight,
except for psychological well-being
Robustness tests are performed
60. Methodology
– The BNHI is a form of the FosterAlkire Methodology, used in UNDP
MPI, for national poverty.
• Cuts sufficiency
– Each subdomain identifies a person as a private of, if it
has not reached the "sufficiency" in that indicator.
• Identification of ‘Happiness’
– To allow diversity, a person is identified as "happy" if he
has achieved sufficiency in 70% of the domains.
61. Formula for the Butan NHI
BNH =1–(No of people x Intensity)
The BNH Index uses Foster Alkire aggregation for
ordinal data
• No of people
– It is the percentage of unhappy people
• Amplitude (Intensity)
– This is the average percentage of gaps among the
unhappy.
No of people and Amplitude focus on privations to inform
politicians
64. M e a s u r i n g Va r i a b l e s
1. GDP per cápita
2. Social support
3. Healthy life expectancy at birth
4. Freedom to choose in life
5. Generosity
6. Corruption perceptions
65. 6 3 N O D E S
5 . F i n l a n d 1 7 . B r a z i l
6 . C a n a d a 1 6 . B e l g i u m
8 . N u e v a Z e a l a n d 2 1 . M e x i c o
9 . A u s t r a l i a 2 3 . U n i t e d
K i n g d o m
1 1 . I s r a e l 2 4 . C h i l e
1 3 . U nited States of Amér ic a 2 5 . P a n a m a
1 4 . C o s t a R i c a 2 6 . A r g e n t i n a
1 6 . G e r m a n y
F i r s t g r o u p
1 5 f r o m M P
66. S e c o n d g r o u p
2 7 . C z e c h R e p u b l i c 4 5 . S l o v a k i a
28. United Arab Emirates 5 0 . I t a l i a
2 9 . U r u g u a y 5 1 . E c u a d o r
3 1 . C o l o m b i a 5 3 . J a p a n
3 2 . F r a n c e 5 6 . R u s s i a
3 7 . S p a i n 5 7 . P o l a n d
4 1 . K u w a i t 5 8 . S o u t h K o r e a
4 4 . V e n e z u e l a
1 5 f r o m M P
67. T h i r d g r o u p
1 5 f r o m M P
5 9 . B o l i v i a 8 9 . D o m i n i c a n R e p u b l i c
6 3 . S l o v e n i a 9 1 . H u n g a r y
7 1 . R u m a n i a 9 2 . P a k i s t a n
7 4 . C r o a c i a 9 4 . P o r t u g a l
7 8 . T u r k e y 9 8 . T u n e z
8 1 . A z e r b a i j a n 9 9 . G r e e c e
8 3 . C h i n a 1 0 5 . I r a n
8 8 . M o n t e n e g r o
68. F o u r t h g r o u p
1 1 6 . S o u t h A f r i c a 1 2 2 . K e n y a
1 1 7 . S r i L a n k a 1 2 6 . G e o r g i a
1 1 8 . I n d i a 1 2 9 . B u l g a r i a
1 1 9 . M y a n m a r 1 4 6 . U g a n d a
1 2 0 . E g y p t 1 4 9 . T a n z a n i a
1 2 1 . A r m e n i a
11 from MP
69. Methodological reflection
“ W e g i v e m o r e v a l i d i t y t o p e o p l e ' s o w n
j u d g m e n t s a b o u t t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e i r
l i v e s t h a n t o a n y I n d e x t h a t w e c a n
c o n s t r u c t a b o u t m e a s u r e m e n t s o n
p o s s i b l e c o m p o n e n t s . ”
John F. Helliwell, Haifang Huang & Shun Wang
World Happiness Report 2016
70. MILLEN N IU M
PROJECT
B U TA N W OR LD
HAPPINESS
Love Health GDP per capita
Family Education Social support
Achievements: creativity,
discoveries, goals
Standard of material life Life expectancy
Friends Time use Freedom to choose
Helping others Governance Generosity
Work & income Community vitatlity Corruption perceptions
Health Ecological diversity
Nature Culture & Spirituality
Arts Emotional well-being
75. B o o k
I B E R O A M E R I C A 2 0 5 0
1 5 C H A L L E N G E S
C o n c e p c i ó n O l a v a r r i e t a
M a r c h 2 3 , 2 0 1 7
M o n t e r r e y, N u e v o L e ó n ,
76. I B E R O A M É R I C A 2 0 5 0
1 5 C h a l l e n g e s
78. I n i t i a l v e r s i o n
1 5 e x p e r t s p e r c o u n t r y
B o o k 2 0 5 0 p e r c o u n t r y
F i n a l v e r s i o n
I B E R O A M E R I C A 2 0 5 0 .
1 5 C H A L L E N G E S & S C E N A R I O S
79. B o o k
I B E R O A M E R I C A 2 0 5 0
1 5 C h a l l e n g e s
F i r s t s t a g e
v e r s i o n s
1 . B y I b e r o - A m e r i c a n c h a l l e n g e s f a s c i c l e s
.
2 . B y c h a l l e n g e s f a s c i c l e s p e r c o u n t r y
3 . E l e c t r o n i c v e r s i o n
4 . P r i n t e d v e r s i o n
S e c o n d s t a g e
S C E N A R I O S
82. 12
Transnational
organized crime
15
Global Ethics
7
Rich & poor gap
Water
2
5
Foresight mexican policies
and decision making
Tecnoloógical Information
& Communications
6
9
Education
1
Sustainable development
& climate change
Transnacional
organized crime
12
J u n e 2 8 t h , 2 0 1 6
83. 14
Victor Manuel Mayoral
Science & Technology
4
José Fabián Ruíz
Democratization
10
Gabriela de la Paz
Peace & Conflict
13
María del Pilar Rodríguez
Energy
11
Luz María Velázquez
Improvement of
Women’s status
8
Gema Leon
Health
3
Guillermo Gándara
Population & Resources
15
Edgar Jimenez
Global Ethics
89. OUR EXPERIENCE IN MEXICO
S t e p s
1. Thematic experts invitation
2. Periodic meetings with authors for checking advances,
problems, support with third parties and new proposals for
publishing the book.
3. Important agreements.
Since all the challenges are impacted holistically:
a. Each author electronically sends the other authors their Essay for
comments.
b. Opinions are punctual and constructive. They are sent personally
to the author to improve his Essay.
c. Nobody has the right to get angry because it is a collective effort.
90. Ex perienc es Challenge 1 2
T r a n s n a t i o n a l O r g a n i z e d C r i m e
C h a l l e n g e s
• Lack of Mexican and international publications on
the 23 variables of transnational organized crime as
a whole.
• Lack of sequential Mexican and international
statistics on the 23 variables of Transnational
Organized Crime.
91. R i s k f a c t o r s f o r Transnational
Organized Crime
1 . F A M I L Y
2 . E D U C A T I O N
3 . I N D I V I D U A L
4. NEIGHBORHOOD
5. RELATIONSHIPS
92. O p i n i o n S u r v e y
S u p p o r t : f o r m a t y c o d i n g .
P a r t i c i p a n t e s : 1 6 8
México
Latinoamérica
Millennium Project
21 a 29 años
30 a 49 años
50 y más
A g e
Licenciatura
Maestría
Doctorado
S c h o l a r s h i p
Ciencias Sociales
Ingeniería-Arquitectura
Ciencias exactas
Medicina
Otras
Academia
Sector privado
Otros
P r o f e s s i o n a l s p e c i a l t y W o r k
93. O u r v i s i o n f o r C h a l l e n g e 1 2 i s
c o n s t r u c t i v e t o w a r d s :
1 . A p u b l i c p o l i c y o f e f f e c t i v e
f o r e s i g h t .
1 . S t r o n g , t r a n s p a r e n t a n d a s s e r t i v e
g o v e r n a n c e .
2 . A m o r e i n v o l v e d , c o m m i t t e d a n d
r e s p o n s i b l e s o c i e t y.
94. Adv antages of
MÉXICO 2050
I t w i l l b e a n a v a n t - g a r d e p u b l i c a t i o n
t h a t
w i l l f e e d b a c k a n d i m p a c t
o n t h e p u b l i c , p r i v a t e a n d s o c i a l
n e w p o l i c i e s
95. B e n e f i t s f o r
I B E R O A M É R I C A 2 0 5 0
A U T H O R S
• Each challenge could be published as a fascicle
• Each author could make presentations on his challenge.
C O U N T R Y
• Each country will elaborate its scenarios
• Each country could edit its own publication
• The authors will make joint presentations to influence decision-makers in the public,
private, academic and social sectors.
R I B E R
• It will have a series of national publications accrediting the value of its members and
the presence of RIBER.
• The members of RIBER can group together to formulate the Scenarios for
IBEROAMERICA 2050.
97. ¡ L E T ’ S B E C O M E A M O D E L F O R T H E
M I L L E N N I U M P R O J E C T !
I B E R O A M É R I C A
t o w a a r d s
2 0 5 0
C o n c e p c i ó n O l a v a r r i e t a
P r e s i d e n t a d e l N o d o M e x i c a n o . E l P r o y e c t o d e l M i l e n i o
V i c e p r e s i d e n t a d e l C o n s e j o D i r e c t i v o y M e x i c a n C h a i r d e l
M i l l e n n i u m P r o j e c t
S e c r e t a r i a d e l a R e d I b e r o a m e r i c a n a d e P r o s p e c t i v a
c o n c e p c i o n o l a v a r r i e t a @ g m a i l . c o m
103. Study goals
Identify cultural, educational, scientific,
technological, economic, social, financial
and welfare changes necessary for a
peaceful transition between the population
and its work by 2050.
103
104. ¿ I n w h i c h
i s d i f f e r e n t
T h e F u t u r e o f W o r k /
Te c h n o l o g y 2 0 5 0
S t u d y ?
104
105. 1
An international
study with
the participation of
45 countries
Artificial intelligence, Impact of robotics
at work, Synthetic biology, 3D / 4D & Bio-
printing, Nanotechnology, Virtual and
augmented reality, etc ...
3.
Is projected to 2050
to include
necessary cultural changes
for a peaceful transition. 105
2.
106. 4.
Helps look at 2050
The primary, secondary and tertiary
Consequences
and creates
global alternative scenarios for
Helping the transition of the new
economic / technological conditions
5.
It starts with national strategy workshops,
compares the results and
feedbacks to each country.
6.
Result:
Focus on what to do in the long run,
instead of repeating
descriptions of the problem. 106
107. 3 Scenarios 2050
1.It's Complicated- A Mixed Bag
2. Political/Economic Turmoil –
Future Despair
3. If Humans Were Free –
the Self-Actualization Economy.
.
107
108. 1. A business as usual trend with:
a. The increasing accelaration of change with,
b. Intelligence & stupidity
characterized decisionmaking (or lack of decisionmaking).
2. Irregular adoption of advanced technology
a. High unemployment, where governments did not create long-range
strategies and
b. Mixed success on the use of universal basic income
Giant corporation’s powers have often grown beyond government control, in this
government-corporate, virtud-3D, multi-polar complex world of 2050.
Scenario 1
It’s complicated –
A mixed bag
108
109. 1. GOVERNMENTS:
a. Did not anticiapte the impact of artificial general intelligence and
b. Had no strategies in place
As unemployment exploded in the 2030’s
Leaving the world of 2050 in political turmoil.
2. Social polarism and political grid-lock in many forms have grown
3. Global order has deteriorated into a combination of:
a. Nation-States,
b. Mega-corporations,
c. Local militias,
d. Terrorism & organized crime.
Scenario 2
2. Political/Economic Turmoil
–
Future Despair
109
110. 1. Governments did anticipate:
a) The impacts of artificial intelligence,
b) Conductive extensive research onhow to phase in
universal basic income systems, and promoted self-
employment.
2. Artist, media muguls, and entertainers helped to foster
cultural changes from an employmnet culture to self-
acutlization economy.
Scenario 3
If humans were free–
the Self-Actualization Economy
110
111. GUIDELINE FOR A WOKSHOP ON
FUTURE WORK/ TECHNOLOGY
2050
111
112. 7
W O R K
TA B L E S
1 . E d u c a t i o n & l e a r n i n g
3. S c i e n c e & Te c h n o l o g y.
6. F i n a n c i a l c a p i t a l
2 . G o v e r n m e n t
4. C u l t u r e
5. Business & Work 7. We l l n e s s a n d w o r k
112
113. S c h e d u l e y a c t i v i t i e s
• 10:00 a 11:00
• Primera Ronda Grupos de Trabajo
• 11:05 a 11:10
• Receso
• 11:11 a 12:11
• Segunda Ronda Grupos de Trabajo
• 12:11 a 12:16
• Receso
• 12:17 a 13:02
• Tercera Ronda Grupos de Trabajo
• 13:03 a 13:33
• Consensos finales 6 Relatores Grupos de trabajo
H o u r Ac t i v i t y
1 0 : 0 0 a 11 : 0 0 F I R S T R O U N D
E a c h e x p e r t m a k e s h i s p r e s e n t a t i o n s a n d
e a c h w o r k t a b l e c o n s e n s e s i t s v i s i o n s f o r
2 0 5 0 .
11 : 0 1 a 11 : 1 0 B r e a k
11 : 1 0 a 1 2 : 0 0 P R E S E N TAT I O N S O F E A C H W O R K I N G
G R O U P.
E a c h e x p e r t m a k e s i t s n o t e s o f w h a t h e
w o u l d l i k e t o a d d o r c h a n g e .
1 2 : 0 1 a 1 2 : 1 0 B r e a k
1 2 : 11 a 1 3 : 3 0 S E C O N D R O U N D
E a c h e x p e r t p o s e s h i s c h a n g e s o r
a d d i t i o n s o n h i s n e w v i s i o n s a n d t h e
g r o u p c o n s e n s e s h i s n e w v i s i o n s f o r
2 0 5 0
113
114. Rapporteurs-Facilitators
1. Direct the 2 sessions of the group.
2. Compile the written views of each expert.
3. Regulate the time of each participant.
4. Summarize the visions of the group consensus.
5. Make the initial presentation of the group.
6. Make the summary of the final version of the group.114
115. A c t o r s A c t i v i t i e s M i n u t e s
F i r s t R o u n d
T a r g e t : G a t h e r e x p e r t s o p i n i o n s
R a p p o r t e u r &
E x p e r t s
P r e s e n t a t i o n s o f e a c h
o n e
5 ’
E x p e r t Y o u r v i s i ó n 5 ’ e a c h
R a p p o r t e u r
S u g g e s t s c o n s e n s u s
s y n t h e s i s a n d a s k s f o r
f e e d b a c k
15’
S E C O N D R O U N D
T a r g e t : I d e n t i f y t h e h o l i s t i c i m p a c t
R a p p o r t e u r P r e s e n t s
T h e m a t i c v i s i o n o f i t s
t a b l e
10 ’ p e r g r o u p
E x p e r t s T a k e n o t e o f
c o n t r i b u t i o n s f r o m o t h e r
t a b l e s f o r t h e i r g r o u p
S i m u l t a n e o u s
T E R C E R A R O N D A
T a r g e t : I n t e g r a t e n e w o p i n i o n s a n d r e a c h c o n s e n s u s
E x p e r t s A d d n e w c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o
t h e t a b l e 5 ’ e a c h
R a p p o r t e u r &
E x p e r t s
C o n s e n s u s 15 ‘ 115
116. Ta b l e 1
E D U C AT I O N / L E A R N I N G
1. How should education, training and learning
systems change?
2. And what strategies will make it happen?
116
117. Ta b l e 1 R a p p o r t
E d u c a t i o n / L e a r n i n g
Main topics
1. Personalization of learning
2. Teachers
3. Students
4. Education system
5. Evaluation
6. Employers
7. Government
Consensus with the Tables of:
Government, Welfare and Work, Science and Technology, Culture
117
118. Ta b l e 2
G O V E R N M E N T
1. Will a program be needed to
guarantee income?
2. What type? When?
Cash flow projections to show what is possible.
118
119. Ta b l e 2 R a p p o r t
G o v e r n m e n t
Main topics
1. Democracy
2. Public administration
3. Legislation
4. Guaranteed Basic Income
5. Free time (quality)
6. Education (public processes)
Consensus with the Tables
Education, Science and Technology, Culture, Business and Work
119
120. Ta b l e 3
S C I E N C E & T E C H N O L O G Y
1. Artificial Intelligence / Robotics /
Synthetic Biology / Nanotechnology / etc. NT
2. What type? ... When? ...
Cash flow projections to show what is possible.
120
121. Ta b l e 3 R a p p o r t
C i e n c i a y Te c n o l o g í a
Main topics
1. Public policies
2. Job
3. Quality of life
4. Sustainability and population
5. Education
6. Rational use of energy
Consensus with the Tables
Education and Learning, Government, Culture, Business and
Labor, Financial Capital, Welfare and Work
121
122. Ta b l e 4
C U LT U R E
1. ¿What cultural changes will be needed?
2. How to innovate in the new content industry?
3. Culture says that jobs / employment are the source of
self-esteem.
4. What will be the role of risk capital related to futures
in the cultural industries?
122
123. Ta b l e 4 R a p p o r t
C u l t u r e
Main topics
1. Humanization
2. Means
3. Values
4. Spirituality
5. Profile
6. Critical thinking
7. Government
Consensus
Humanization, Resources, Values, Spirituality, Profile and Critical
Thinking.
123
124. Ta b l e 5
B U S I N E S S & J O B S
1. Which will be the roles of companies and work, and
their associations in a national long-range strategy?
2. How to reduce income gaps and concentration of
wealth?
3. How to guarantee workers' rights and fair treatment
when AI and other NTs change the nature of work
and employment? 124
125. Ta b l e 5 R a p p o r t
B u s i n e s s & W o r k
Main topics
1. Role of companies
2. Income Gaps and Wealth Concentration
3. Workers' rights when AI and NT change
Consensus with other Tables
Education / Learning, Government, Science and Technology,
Culture, Financial Capital and Well-being and Work
125
126. Ta b l e 6
F I N A N C I A L C A P I TA L
1. What will be the forms of financial
transactions, the money market and its
modes of accumulation and distribution?
2. What will be the future of the fiscal function
with the virtual money?
3. Will there be a single global currency? ...
126
127. Ta b l e 6 R a p p o r t
F i n a n c i a l C a p i t a l
Main topics
1. Money market
2. Fiscal function
3. Global single currency
Consensus
Acquisition of knowledge, social benefits, technologies, culture
and work.
127
128. Ta b l e 7
W E L L N E S S A N D W O R K
1. Will the working hours be relevant in the future?
2. How are we preparing for the labor demands of the new
generations?
3. What is meaningful work and why is it important for new
generations?
4. How should companies ensure the involvement of their
employees?
128
129. Ta b l e 7 R a p p o r t
W e l l n e s s a n d w o r k
Main topics
1. Technology as a means to facilitate processes
2. People with purpose
3. Equality and safety at work
4. The leader new role
129
130. MÉXICO 2050
1 5 C h a l l e n g e s
INVITATION
O c t o b e r 1 1 t h
131.
132. I nv it at ion
Oc tober 11th
Aut hors presentation of
MEXICO 2050.
15 Challenges
2015 - 2017