This presentation has three components:
A Brief History of the Future
The Implications of This Future for Learning
Leadership for a Different Future
1. Governments and their relationships with public
institutions – austerity, accountability and complexity.
2. New forms of organizations and new patterns of work. –
the “uberization” of organizations and the “gig” economy.
3. Technological change shifting the focus of work,
productivity and performance:
1. Artificial Intelligence
3. 3D Printing
4. Stem-Cell Therapies and new approaches to medical
5. New materials (e.g. graphene)
4. Environmental shifts – 9 billion people by 2050 and
5. Demographic shifts and changes in social behaviour and
“consciousness” – new patterns of social interaction,
social engagement and new understandings of
relationships between people, people and work, people
and society, people and the planet.
By 2016 in Australia, app. 38% of the workforce
were freelance workers – contracted for service
rather than employees. 17% declare themselves
in this way as self-employed. The freelance
workforce doubled since 2008.
60% of the university sector are freelance
workers (sessional, part-timers).
80% of all new jobs advertised in Australia over
the last twelve months were part-time.
IStheEconomy.. Worldwide, 40% of the world’s
workforce are freelance workers and
this number is expected to rise to
60% by 2020.
In the Fortune 100 companies,
freelance workers make up 30% of
the workforce, but predictions are
that will soon rise to 50%.
Shift from routine work to creative
Replacement of routine work with
technology – think secretarial services,
banking, insurance, travel..
Higher education key to future employment..
Literacy and numeracy are the keys that
unlock all of this future…
Manufacturing more focused on the management of technology
than production activity – maintenance.
Artificial intelligence + design = new thinking about process.
Office work has changed – 24x7 access, process based work,
globalization of work..
Most gains in productivity arise from deployment of technology –
we need to learn to dance with robots
BMW Mini Plant at Cowley, Oxford UK
A customized car every 61 seconds
Local Motors (Phoenix, Arizona) crowdsources design and
engineering and then 3D prints its components / body.
Manufactures customized versions on demand.
Manufactures all forms of transport, including snowmobiles,
water based vehicles and public transport.
First driverless 3d printed public bus now operating in
Helsinki and will soon operate in Calgary
A group of Dutch engineers have printed a bridge crossing a Dutch canal
using an “arm printer”, overcoming the size limitations of 1st and 2nd
generation 3D printers.
Apis Corp (San Francisco) 3D printed a house in 24 hours at a cost of
$12,000US that met the California building code.
3D medical devices – prosthetics, stents, dental devices and other – already
a fast growing sector: the ability to personalize / customize a strong
Using a cell phone as a printer (light from the phone used on polymers to
print) Elon Musk and his engineers at SpaceX have created a 3D printed
SuperDraco rocket engine. This got off the ground in 2016.
3D printing now includes:
Aerospace parts (European Space Agency)
Metal parts using various metals and graphene
Props and materials for films / TV
Shoes and clothing
Bones, skin and body parts
Tires and car parts
Forget many of the images you have of what robots are
and what they can do..
Robotic kitchens which can produce meals on demand..
Robotic weapons and fight systems
Self-driving cars, buses, trains and trucks likely to
replace current transport systems over time – potential
displacement of some 3.5 million North American
workers by 2030
570,000 surgeries in 2014 were robotically assisted in
Intelligence(AI) Offering an analysis of an MRI scan – suggesting clinical
pathways based on “best possible” understanding
Predicting student behaviour
Counselling and personal therapy..
Supports for design and creativity
Man-machine interfaces for better productivity – especially in
manufacturing, financial services and health
The Singularity – Where AI is smarter than
the collective intelligence of the species
BasicDemography(Canada) By 2030, 21.87% of Australians will be over 65 years of
age - up from 13.8% in 2011.
Ratio of workers to seniors shifting from 5:1 (2012) to
2.5:1 (20132) - major tax implications!
Rate of growth of seniors is faster than the rate of
growth of the working population.
The Age of
Global population will exceed 9 billion
The proportion of the world’s population over 65 will double
There will be over 400 million persons over 80 – 4x the present number
80% of those 65 or older will live in low or middle income countries
For the first time in history, there will be more people over 65 than under 14
In Italy, Japan and Spain 1 in 3 will be over 65
2.3 billion new middle class consumers will emerge by 2030,
mainly in Asia, India and Africa
By 2025 almost 50% of the world’s billion dollar companies will be
headquartered in emerging markets, not in North America or
Europe (41% of them are already Asian based)
425 major cities will fuel the global economy – 315 of them are in
Increased pressure on Governments for $$ at a time
when the tax base is shrinking
Increased pressure on schools, colleges and universities
to engage in both the skills agenda but also a new focus
on resilience and adaptability
Increased pressure to accelerate program completion,
offer more flexible routes to success and engage in new
and imaginative programming.
The Skills Gap – which is actually complex..
Gap 1: The Basic Gap: The Gap Between What
Employers are Seeking and What they Can Find
Gap 2: The Expectations Gap – The Gap Between What
an Employee Expects to Experience at Work and What
they Actually Find Themselves Doing
Gap 3: The Productivity Gap – The Skills We Need to
Develop to Significantly Improve Productivity
Gap 4: The Leverage Gap – The Underutilization of
Skills in the Workforce
Gap 5: The Futures Gap – The Gap Between Current
Skill Sets and the Skills We Need to Become Competitive
in the 4th Industrial Revolution
Gap 6: The Innovation Gap - The Skills We Need to Build
a More Innovative and Sustainable Economy
A variety of substantial surveys of
Millennials (born between 1981 and
2000) show that they see themselves as:
Open to Change
High Expectations for Themselves and
We’re in the midst of a significa nt
Time and the Investment of Energy and Effort
Schooling / 3rd
21st Century for
Community / 4th
The Future School in the In Between
Frequent Testing /
Equity as the Key
Schools are where the action is - schools make a
difference, not technology or analytics or policy
Schools make a difference through a focus on the
student as a person not as a data point -
compassion, empathy and genuineness produce
more outcomes than algorithms and PISA
Collaboration is the DNA of the knowledge economy
- teachers who collaborate with other teachers and
students who engage in collaborative meaningful
projects achieve.. Competition between schools
lowers system-wide outcomes…
Learning from others and innovation will be
essential for all of our future…
Challenging ourselves to create great schools for all
and a great school down the road is the key task of
They focus on meeting learner needs and expectations.
Teaching is about engagement, value creation and
Through engagement, personalized learning, frequent
feedback and competency based assessment we can
change the pace of learning
Schools prosper when students are engaged in the
design of their learning experiences and the student
voice is heard
Schools thrive when teachers collaborate and have
But learning “stuff” is no longer the key - we need to
think about adaptive, resilient learners - this will be
the key “skill” in the balance of this century
I know what is expected of me in school today
I have everything I need to be a successful student
At this school I have an opportunity to shine as a
student every day
In the last five school days I have been recognized for
my achievements by a teacher
My teachers know me and care about me as a person
My voice as a student counts in this school – I feel I
can make a difference
What this school stands for makes me proud to be a
Everyone in my class is committed to doing quality
I have a best friend at school
Every month someone talks to me about my progress
Every month I feel I have an opportunity to grow
My teachers are committed to my development