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Keynote Australian Primary Principals Association


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The future and its implications for schools.

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Keynote Australian Primary Principals Association

  1. 1. Adaptive Schools for a Different Future
  2. 2. StephenMurgatroyd, PhD
  3. 3. The Consequences of Poor Literacy Just a moment…
  4. 4. AMessagefrom Quebec
  5. 5. “Thefuture isn’twhatit usedto be..”
  6. 6. What’sItAll About?  This presentation has three components:  A Brief History of the Future  The Implications of This Future for Learning and Schools  Leadership for a Different Future
  7. 7. FiveForces Shapingthe Future 1. Governments and their relationships with public institutions – austerity, accountability and complexity. 2. New forms of organizations and new patterns of work. – the “uberization” of organizations and the “gig” economy. 3. Technological change shifting the focus of work, productivity and performance: 1. Artificial Intelligence 2. Robotics 3. 3D Printing 4. Stem-Cell Therapies and new approaches to medical treatment. 5. New materials (e.g. graphene) 4. Environmental shifts – 9 billion people by 2050 and climate change. 5. Demographic shifts and changes in social behaviour and “consciousness” – new patterns of social interaction, social engagement and new understandings of relationships between people, people and work, people and society, people and the planet.
  8. 8. FreelanceandSelf Employment Growing  By 2016 in Australia, app. 38% of the workforce were freelance workers – contracted for service rather than employees. 17% declare themselves in this way as self-employed. The freelance workforce doubled since 2008.  60% of the university sector are freelance workers (sessional, part-timers).  80% of all new jobs advertised in Australia over the last twelve months were part-time.
  9. 9. TheGigEconomy IStheEconomy..  Worldwide, 40% of the world’s workforce are freelance workers and this number is expected to rise to 60% by 2020.  In the Fortune 100 companies, freelance workers make up 30% of the workforce, but predictions are that will soon rise to 50%.
  10. 10. Changesinthe Workforce  Shift from routine work to creative employment..  Replacement of routine work with technology – think secretarial services, banking, insurance, travel..  Higher education key to future employment..  Literacy and numeracy are the keys that unlock all of this future…
  11. 11. NotOnlyHasWHO isworkingchanged, butWHATtheydo hastoo  Manufacturing more focused on the management of technology than production activity – maintenance.  Artificial intelligence + design = new thinking about process.  Office work has changed – 24x7 access, process based work, globalization of work..  Most gains in productivity arise from deployment of technology – we need to learn to dance with robots BMW Mini Plant at Cowley, Oxford UK A customized car every 61 seconds
  12. 12. Idea2:MoreChangeto Come Technology
  13. 13. Emerging Technology:3D Printing  Local Motors (Phoenix, Arizona) crowdsources design and engineering and then 3D prints its components / body.  Manufactures customized versions on demand.  Manufactures all forms of transport, including snowmobiles, water based vehicles and public transport.  First driverless 3d printed public bus now operating in Helsinki and will soon operate in Calgary
  14. 14. 3DPrinting Quickly Emerging…  A group of Dutch engineers have printed a bridge crossing a Dutch canal using an “arm printer”, overcoming the size limitations of 1st and 2nd generation 3D printers.  Apis Corp (San Francisco) 3D printed a house in 24 hours at a cost of $12,000US that met the California building code.  3D medical devices – prosthetics, stents, dental devices and other – already a fast growing sector: the ability to personalize / customize a strong attractor.  Using a cell phone as a printer (light from the phone used on polymers to print) Elon Musk and his engineers at SpaceX have created a 3D printed SuperDraco rocket engine. This got off the ground in 2016.  3D printing now includes:  Aerospace parts (European Space Agency)  Metal parts using various metals and graphene  Props and materials for films / TV  Shoes and clothing  Bones, skin and body parts  Tires and car parts
  15. 15. Robotics  Forget many of the images you have of what robots are and what they can do..  Imagine..  Robotic kitchens which can produce meals on demand..  Robotic weapons and fight systems  Self-driving cars, buses, trains and trucks likely to replace current transport systems over time – potential displacement of some 3.5 million North American workers by 2030  570,000 surgeries in 2014 were robotically assisted in the US
  16. 16. Artificial Intelligence(AI)  Offering an analysis of an MRI scan – suggesting clinical pathways based on “best possible” understanding  Predicting student behaviour  Counselling and personal therapy..  Supports for design and creativity  Man-machine interfaces for better productivity – especially in manufacturing, financial services and health The Singularity – Where AI is smarter than the collective intelligence of the species
  17. 17. Idea2:MoreChangeto Come Demography
  18. 18. BasicDemography(Canada) By 2030, 21.87% of Australians will be over 65 years of age - up from 13.8% in 2011.  Ratio of workers to seniors shifting from 5:1 (2012) to 2.5:1 (20132) - major tax implications!  Rate of growth of seniors is faster than the rate of growth of the working population. The Age of the Senior
  19. 19. By2050:More Demographic Shocks..  Global population will exceed 9 billion  The proportion of the world’s population over 65 will double  There will be over 400 million persons over 80 – 4x the present number  80% of those 65 or older will live in low or middle income countries  For the first time in history, there will be more people over 65 than under 14  In Italy, Japan and Spain 1 in 3 will be over 65
  20. 20. Economic Geography–Shift Happens!  2.3 billion new middle class consumers will emerge by 2030, mainly in Asia, India and Africa  By 2025 almost 50% of the world’s billion dollar companies will be headquartered in emerging markets, not in North America or Europe (41% of them are already Asian based)  425 major cities will fuel the global economy – 315 of them are in Asia
  21. 21. AllofWhich GivesRiseTo..  Increased pressure on Governments for $$ at a time when the tax base is shrinking  Increased pressure on schools, colleges and universities to engage in both the skills agenda but also a new focus on resilience and adaptability  Increased pressure to accelerate program completion, offer more flexible routes to success and engage in new and imaginative programming.
  22. 22. AManifestation ofWhich…  The Skills Gap – which is actually complex..  Gap 1: The Basic Gap: The Gap Between What Employers are Seeking and What they Can Find  Gap 2: The Expectations Gap – The Gap Between What an Employee Expects to Experience at Work and What they Actually Find Themselves Doing  Gap 3: The Productivity Gap – The Skills We Need to Develop to Significantly Improve Productivity  Gap 4: The Leverage Gap – The Underutilization of Skills in the Workforce  Gap 5: The Futures Gap – The Gap Between Current Skill Sets and the Skills We Need to Become Competitive in the 4th Industrial Revolution  Gap 6: The Innovation Gap - The Skills We Need to Build a More Innovative and Sustainable Economy
  23. 23. andanew understanding of“SELF”  A variety of substantial surveys of Millennials (born between 1981 and 2000) show that they see themselves as:  “Awesome”  Capable  Confident  Connected  Open to Change  Work-Life Balance  High Expectations for Themselves and Society
  24. 24. NewThinkingAbout Learning
  25. 25. We’re in the midst of a significa nt change.A.. In Between Time Time and the Investment of Energy and Effort SystemMaturity Industrial Form of Schooling / 3rd Way Policies 21st Century for of Personalized Learning in School and Community / 4th Way Policies Paradigm Shi The Future School in the In Between Time
  26. 26. TwoSolitudesof Educational Policy (MurgatroydandSahlberg,2016) Competition Between Schools Frequent Testing / Accountability De-Professionalization PISA Envy Collaboration Trust Based Responsibility Collaborative Professional Autonomy Equity as the Key Measure GERM EQUITY
  27. 27. 5Important Developments  Schools are where the action is - schools make a difference, not technology or analytics or policy  Schools make a difference through a focus on the student as a person not as a data point - compassion, empathy and genuineness produce more outcomes than algorithms and PISA  Collaboration is the DNA of the knowledge economy - teachers who collaborate with other teachers and students who engage in collaborative meaningful projects achieve.. Competition between schools lowers system-wide outcomes…  Learning from others and innovation will be essential for all of our future…  Challenging ourselves to create great schools for all and a great school down the road is the key task of leadership.
  28. 28. KeyComponents ofEmergent LearningSystems  They focus on meeting learner needs and expectations. Teaching is about engagement, value creation and competencies.  Through engagement, personalized learning, frequent feedback and competency based assessment we can change the pace of learning  Schools prosper when students are engaged in the design of their learning experiences and the student voice is heard  Schools thrive when teachers collaborate and have professional autonomy  But learning “stuff” is no longer the key - we need to think about adaptive, resilient learners - this will be the key “skill” in the balance of this century
  29. 29. TheDelors Framework My Self and My Future Learning to Know Learning to Do Learning to Live Together Learning to Be
  30. 30. • Tough Minded • Self- Disciplined • Adaptive• Purposeful Connected Curious Self- Reliant Hopeful TheResilientandAdaptive Student
  31. 31. HowWouldYour StudentsAnswer These12 Questions?  I know what is expected of me in school today  I have everything I need to be a successful student today  At this school I have an opportunity to shine as a student every day  In the last five school days I have been recognized for my achievements by a teacher  My teachers know me and care about me as a person  My voice as a student counts in this school – I feel I can make a difference
  32. 32. ..2…  What this school stands for makes me proud to be a student  Everyone in my class is committed to doing quality work  I have a best friend at school  Every month someone talks to me about my progress at school  Every month I feel I have an opportunity to grow through learning  My teachers are committed to my development
  33. 33. WhatDoYouNeedto Do? SOME SUGGESTIONS..
  34. 34. BuildandEmpower TeacherTeams& FocusTheirWorkon TheNowWhatand SoWhat..
  35. 35. BuildandEmpowerLearnerSupports
  36. 36. Enable the Student Voice To Be Heard
  37. 37. Connect Globally- Act Locally
  39. 39. InConclusion..
  40. 40. IfAllElseFails..