The document discusses a case study that uses the PIEVC process to assess the effects of climate change on buildings. It summarizes the 5 steps of the PIEVC protocol: 1) define the project, 2) gather data, 3) assess risk, 4) engineering analysis, and 5) recommendations. It then provides details of steps 1-3 as applied to a sample 16-story residential building in Toronto, identifying key climate change risks like increased temperature, rainfall, and need for air conditioning. Components at medium-high risk included grounds/drainage, the building envelope, and mechanical drainage systems.

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Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Buildings
Using the Engineers Canada PIEVC Process
By
Gerald R Genge, P.Eng., C.Eng., BDS, BSSO, C.Arb., Q.Med.
Dale D. Kerr, M.Eng., P.Eng., BSSO, ACCI.
ABSTRACT
Building design today relies heavily on historic climate data; however, as our climate is beginning to
change, historic data can no longer accurately represent future conditions over the life of a building.
Throughout the next 40 years, Ontario is expected to see increases in temperature, relative humidity,
rainfall, snowfall, wind pressures, and UV radiation. In addition to changing the criteria for building
design, these weather changes can significantly affect Ontario’s existing building stock. Via Engineers
Canada, the Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) is tasked with
overseeing the planning and execution of climate change vulnerability assessments of public
infrastructure. Buildings represent one of four key areas that the PIEVC investigates. Through a case
study on a sample building, this paper discusses a five step protocol used to assess the effects of climate
change on buildings. The protocol includes determining the most important building components,
identifying the climate change parameters and associated values, probability of occurrence, and a risk
assessment protocol. Recommendations on specific building systems as well as on their operations and
maintenance can then be derived.
THEPIEVCPROCESS
The methodology employed follows the protocol
established by Public Infrastructure Engineering
Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC). The process
(Figure 1) includes several steps that assure
consistent and fair assessment of the effects of
climate change on infrastructure. The process
involves a rigorous review of the climatic
parameters that are expected to change in the next 40
years along with an assessment of the impact those
changes are expected to have on buildings. This
paper focusses on the climate change parameters
arising from the case study that affect buildings of
high density residential occupancy.
The protocol includes an assessment of risk in
combination with engineering judgement to assess
the impact of identified climate change parameters
on the building in the case study. The protocol is
FIGURE 1: PIEVC PROTOCOL OUTLINE.

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generic in that it is applicable to four categories of infrastructure including:
 Buildings;
 Roads and associated structures;
 Storm and waste water treatment and collection systems; and,
 Water resource systems.
The authors adapted the process to buildings and in particular, the multi-unit residential occupancy in a
case study. The Protocol employed was Version 10 Beta Method A with scores to Method B October
2011.
STEP 1 - PROJECT DEFINITION
This step develops a description of the case study building including Location, Infrastructure Detail,
Historical Climate, Load(s), Age, Life Cycle, any other relevant factors;
STEP 2 – DATA GATHERING AND SUFFICIENCY
This step involves the collection of data. The data includes: identification of the components of the
infrastructure to be assessed and the climate factors to be considered. The climate change projection
information is derived from a variety of sources, including the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios web
site (www.cccsn.ca) and peer-reviewed studies with results applicable to Toronto.
STEP 3 – RISK ASSESSMENT
This step involves identifying those components that may be vulnerable to climate change. If insufficient
data exists on the level of risk or the expected performance, recommendations for research or other action
are to be given.
Since there are a variety of perspectives on these matters, a workshop approach involving representatives
from a variety of stakeholders was employed.
STEP 4 – ENGINEERING ANALYSIS
Some Risk Assessments may require analysis to determine the level of vulnerability. Typically the
PIEVC protocol assumes empirically-derived mathematical relationships between load and capacity and
reliable data. Since most environmental design considerations use very limited empirically-based design
criteria, no rigorous analysis was conducted to compare loads and resistance.
STEP 5 – RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
Based on the results of Steps 1 to 4, recommendations are required, including:
 Action to upgrade the infrastructure;
 Management action to accommodate changes in the capacity of the building;
 Performance monitoring for re-evaluation at a later date;
 Necessary additional research and analysis; or
 No action required.

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STEP1 - PROJECTDEFINITION
LOCATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE DETAIL
The building in the case study was selected by Engineers Canada. A complete report can be downloaded
from http://www.pievc.ca/e/casedocs/Shuter/285_Shuter_Final_Report.pdf. The sample building is a 16-storey
residential building built in 1964 and provides family housing in Toronto. The building includes a variety
of residential unit sizes ranging from single occupancy to family occupancy; however, the majority of the
units are bachelor and one-bedroom apartments. The construction is typical of buildings of the vintage
having load-bearing, conventionally-reinforced concrete framing. The exterior walls are two-wythe brick
veneer supported on the reinforced concrete floor slabs. Repairs responding to carbonation-induced
corrosion of reinforcing steel and leaking at cracks have been undertaken. The exterior walls are the
primary building component separating the interior and exterior environment and thus are a primary
consideration in the assessment of climate change.
The windows have the original single-glazed sliders and are well past their life expectancy, and have been
assumed to represent 25% of the building energy loss. The windows are the second most relevant
component both in area and impact on heat transfer between the interior and exterior environments. They
provide or protect against solar heat gain; the operable portions allow for ventilation; and glazing
provides natural light to support the well-being of the occupants and reduce the need for artificial lighting.
The integration of the window system into the controlled interior environment is also a key consideration
in this study.
Heating is provided by gas-fired boilers and is distributed through insulated copper pipe to radiators in
common areas and suites. The boilers range in efficiency from 65% to 75%. Suite ventilation and
corridor pressurization is provided by make-up air units installed on the roof of the building. There is no
central air conditioning; it is estimated that 25% of the units have added window-mounted air-
conditioners. Air conditioning is a critical concern looking forward.
The electrical system is typical of older buildings. In the context of climate change, available power
supply is crucial to satisfy anticipated air conditioning loads, as will ensuring adequate emergency power
to satisfy the minimum demand during times of power loss from the municipal grid.
COMPONENT INVENTORY
Listings of components are typically sorted by major building systems and then broken down into
subsystems. Different consultants, owner groups, and proprietary software for asset management list the
components under different headings, but they are generally grouped under the following headings: Site,
Structure, Building Envelope, Mechanical HVAC, Plumbing and Drainage, Electrical, Elevator, Life
Safety, and Finishes.
TIME HORIZON
The time horizon stipulated by the owner and Engineers Canada is to the years 2020 and to 2050. The
2020 target date is expected to capture the near term changes and the 2050 target date is expected to
capture longer term changes to climate. These two horizons address anticipated thresholds that may, in
the shorter term, have a greater influence on building components than the longer term horizon.

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The period of time during which the infrastructure is expected to operate is a further 40 to 50 years. This
is consistent with the term of the study horizon to 2050.
RELEVANT CLIMATE PARAMETERS
The climatic design values included in the model National Building Code of Canada (mNBCC) provides
some initial guidance as to the climate parameters that are relevant to the design and performance of a
building. The environmental loads listed therein may act individually or in combination; however, the
mNBCC does not have design criteria for combination loads due to environmental effects. This is a gap
to be filled by future research.
In addition to the environmental parameters in the mNBCC, using our professional judgment, we
identified additional environmental loads that currently or under future climate change could affect the
building and site components and their ability to maintain a reasonable indoor environment. These are
tabulated and the effects of climate change, based on studies referenced at the end of this paper, are
summarized in Table 3.
CLIMATE BASELINE
Recently updated climate Normals information confirms that significant warming has taken place in the
past few decades in the Toronto region and should be reflected in the climatic design values. The updated
(but unofficial) climate temperature Normals or average annual temperatures for Toronto Pearson Airport
are shown in the Table 1 below for the various historical reference periods.
Normals Period (30 years) Average Annual Temperature Average No. Days with mean temperatures above 0°C
1961-1990 7.3°C 212
1971-2000 7.7°C 219
1981-2010 8.8°C 228
TABLE 1 HISTORICAL AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURES AND DAYS WITH MEAN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0°C.
CUMULATIVE OR SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Many of the weathering processes, including wind-driven rain, freeze-thaw cycles, wetting and drying,
wind-driven abrasive materials, the action of broad spectrum solar radiation and ultraviolet (UV)
radiation, and atmospheric chemical deposition on materials have the potential to increase under climate
change.
It is anticipated that there will be deleterious effects arising from cumulative environmental loads. The
cumulative effects of freeze thaw cycles and increase rainfall are expected to expose the unprotected brick
masonry in the sample building to greater risk of freeze/thaw damage. In addition, potential increase in
high wind events along with rain will require greater water leakage resistance by the cladding, windows
and exterior doors.

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STEP2 – DATAGATHERINGAND SUFFICIENCY
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ASSUMPTIONS FOR CHANGING CLIMATE
Projections of the future climate used in this study considered climate change models produced by more
than 24 different international climate change modeling centres. Those scenarios form the basis for
climate projection work for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Despite the
multiplicity of models, it still remains a challenge to reliably derive changes in climate extremes from
model outputs owing to the coarse spatial resolution of the models and the importance of regional
influences on climate. Environmental factors considered in this case study are listed in Table 2 together
with a summary of the predictive model data for each selected parameter. Where data was not
sufficiently reliable, generalizations have been made.
Parameter Data
Temperature
Historical
(usually 1971-2000)
2050s
(Ensemble Projections)
Relative Change
(% less % more)
# days ≥ 30°C 15 40 +166%
# days ≥ 35°C 0.5 4 +700%
NBCC 2.5% July Dry Bulb Design Temperature 31°C 34°C +9%
NBCC 1% January Dry Bulb Design Temperature -20°C -16°C -20%
30-year period Extreme High Temperature 37°C 40°C +8%
Annual Average Cooling Degree-days 356 640 +80%
Annual Average Heating Degree-days 3520 2900 -18%
Average Annual Freeze-Thaw Cycles 55 ~40 -27%
Average Annual Days < -20°C 1.4 0.3 -78%
Average Annual Heat Related Mortalities 120 280 +133%
Precipitation Parameter
Average annual # wet days 113 ~ 125 +7%
Extreme annual precipitation (for a 30 year period) 1828 mm ~1940 mm 6%
Average Annual Precipitation 835 mm ~ 890mm 7%
Average annual Rainfall 710 mm ~> 800 mm +13%
NBCC 10 year return period 15 minute rainfall 25 mm Likely increasing +
NBCC 50 year return period one day rainfall 97 mm Increasing ~ 60% +60%
Average # days with > 25 mm rainfall 4.2 > 5 +2%
Maximum consecutive Dry days/year ~ 13 Likely increasing +
Driving Rain Wind Pressures (5-year return period) 160 kPa Likely increasing +
mNBCC design Ground Snow Loads Ss-0.9, Sr=0.4 kPa
Rain with snow and
intense storms - increase
+
Rain on snow events, snowmelt Increasing +
Extreme Wind Gust
NBCC 10 year return period wind pressures 0.34 kPa Likely increasing +
NBCC 50 year return period wind pressures 0.44kPa Likely increasing +
Average # hours/year > 70kph 24 (for 1994-2007) 26 (Pearson Area) +8%
Average # hours/year with Gusts > 80kph 5.9 ~7 mostly spring and fall +2%
Average # hours/year with Gusts > 90kph 1.0 h ~1.9 h +90%
Tornado risks May increase +
Severe thunderstorm Average 1-2 d/yr Potential increases +
TABLE 2 CURRENT CLIMATE PARAMETER VALUES AND 2050 ENSEMBLE CLIMATIC PROJECTIONS

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STEP3 - RISKASSESSMENT
ANTICIPATED SITE RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Potential building/site responses to climate change were developed and formed the basis of subsequent
steps in the vulnerability assessment. These included: Structural Strength and Serviceability parameters,
Water Shedding Capacity/Storage, Fuel Sources and Power Demand, Operational Issues and Responses,
and Public Sector Policy and Code Changes.
The risk assessment involves identifying how vulnerable building components may be to climate change.
The anticipated performance of the building components subjected to climate change reveals those at risk
of negative effect under the influence of climate change and the possible risk level.
The consequence on a particular building component based on a particular aspect of climate change is
assessed independently of the likelihood of occurrence of that climate event to arrive at an overall risk
rating. This is stated in mathematical terms as:
R = P x S
Where, R = Risk;
P = Probability of a negative event and,
S = Severity of the event, given that it has happened.
CLIMATE CHANGE PARAMETERS RANKING
Working with the building owner, the Probability Ranking “P” (Table 3) was developed. Climatic
parameters ranked with Probability of an occurrence having an Important Ranking of 5, 6 and 7 included:
Temperature, Rain, Snow, Hail, Freeze-Thaw, Ice Accretion, Wind, and Solar Heat Gain. Those ranking
0 to 3 were dropped from the assessment. Using the assessment team and focus group experience, a
“Severity” “S” (Table 4) was developed.
Importance Ranking Criterion
0 N/A
1 Recognize its existence when analyzing other components.
3 Interested. Analyze if budget allows.
5 Analyze normally.
6 Relatively important. Analyze with more attention.
7 Important. Analyze with much more attention.
TABLE 3 PROBABILITY /IMPORTANCE RANKINGS (P) FOR ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE PARAMETERS,
BUILDING PERFORMANCE AND BUILDING COMPONENTS.
Score
Severity of Consequences and Effects (S)
Method A Method B
0 No Effect Negligible - Not Applicable
1 Measurable Very Low - Some Measurable Change
2 Minor Low - Slight Loss of Serviceability
3 Moderate Moderate Loss of Serviceability
4 Major Major Loss of Serviceability - Some Loss of Capacity
5 Serious Loss of Capacity - Some Loss of Function
6 Hazardous Major - Loss of Function
7 Catastrophic Extreme - Loss of Asset
TABLE 4 SEVERITY SCORE DEFINITIONS (S)

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RISK ASSESSMENT SPREADSHEET
Based on the work done in Steps 1 and 2, a comprehensive spreadsheet was developed with rows
representing the building components to be considered and the columns representing the climate
parameters to be considered. The risk assessment protocol was then adapted as follows:
1. Y/N: To indicate if the climate parameter is expected to impact the building component. These cells
were pre-populated based on the professional judgement of the authors. Where an “N” was
indicated, no risk calculation was made.
2. P: The standardized probability of the climate event occurring. These values were populated based
on the Lifespan (50 years) Climatological Probability (Table 3).
3. S: The score representing the severity of the event, given that it has happened (Table 4).
4. R: The calculated Risk, which is simply the product of P and S.
The PIEVC Protocol established the thresholds for risk tolerance as indicated in Table 5.
Risk Range Threshold Response
< 12 Low Risk  No action necessary.
12 – 36 Medium Risk  Action may be required.
 Engineering analysis may be required.
> 36 High Risk  Action required.
TABLE 5 REFERENCE RISK TOLERANCE THRESHOLDS
The spreadsheet is a full 11 x 17, 6 point font table and is not included herein in its entirety. This chart
can be viewed in its entirety in the referenced study on the PIEVC website. A portion of the risk
assessment results showing the calculated risk (P x S) where a “Yes” impact was anticipated is shown in
Table 6. Note that the only Building Component to achieve a high risk level was air conditioning
(Circled cell), a component currently not included in the building except by ad hoc installations.
Notable building components determined to be “Medium Risk” included:
 Grounds and Site, particularly with respect to drainage management and handling ice.
 Building Envelope, particularly with respect to moisture management and heat/cooling losses.
 Mechanical drainage systems at risk of inducing flooding.
 Emergency electrical supply systems associated with capacity to deal with power outages.
STEP4 – ENGINEERINGANALYSIS
No analytical work was conducted in the scope of the study. As noted, empirical relationships associated
with designs for moisture management at the building envelope level do not exist as yet. While drainage
control capacity on site could be analysed, the “bottleneck” would be drainage capacity of the municipal
infrastructure which was determined to be the subject of independent PIEVC assessments.

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TABLE 6 SUMMARY OF RISKS FROM BUILDING COMPONENT/CLIMATE FACTOR TABLE
STEP5 – RECOMMENDATIONSAND CONCLUSIONS
ACTION TO UPGRADE THE INFRASTRUCTURE
Overcladding
Climate prediction indicates that in the short term, wetting from rainfall, freeze-thaw and wind driven rain
pressure will increase while the temperature increases. This has an effect on the exterior brick veneer
cladding which is subject to wetting and freeze thaw cycles. Both these exposure conditions are expected
to increase in the short term and increase the likelihood of cladding deterioration. Some areas of the
cladding have already experienced deterioration and have been replaced.
It is expected that the increase in wetting will arise primarily from external sources rather than interior
vapour migration and condensation within the wall system. Thus, exterior protection in the form of a
Totalrainfall
Heavyrain
Rainonsnowevents
Snowaccumulation
SnowLoads
Snowmelt
SevereIceStorms
CombinedRain/Wind
Dryspells
Highwindspeeds
Lightning,Severe
Thunderstorms
Tornadoes
ExtremeHeat
Coolingdegreedays
Sunnydays
Humidities
ExtremeCold
Heatingdegreedays
Freeze-thaw
Driveways/Surface Parking 14 19 23 19 6 21 26 2 4 3 1 1 23 2 2 6 0 0 18
Sidewalks/Steps/Curbs/Patios 12 18 21 19 6 21 28 2 4 2 1 1 14 2 2 6 0 0 18
Drainage 18 28 33 16 5 14 14 4 9 2 1 5 2 2 2 1 0 0 0
Balcony Decks 2 4 12 11 15 12 14 12 9 2 1 1 2 2 2 6 0 0 12
Balcony Railings 2 2 2 4 3 2 2 2 9 23 1 9 2 2 2 1 0 0 0
Foundation Walls 12 21 11 4 3 14 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0
Caulking 2 2 4 4 6 2 4 7 11 6 1 3 25 5 5 3 8 0 6
Doors 9 16 12 5 3 2 5 11 11 24 1 10 2 11 12 2 5 9 0
Exterior Cladding General 18 26 2 4 5 2 4 14 11 20 1 10 12 14 12 4 5 12 20
Windows 14 28 2 4 6 2 5 21 12 27 1 12 28 25 23 10 8 18 0
General Roof Repairs/Replace 2 25 2 9 18 2 21 7 12 5 1 11 23 16 25 2 7 12 0
Roof Flashings 2 2 2 4 4 2 5 16 12 15 1 9 2 2 2 2 0 0 0
Elevator Electrical Equipment 2 2 2 4 1 2 2 2 2 9 1 1 21 2 2 1 0 0 0
Elevator Sump 2 28 5 4 1 14 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0
Exterior Lighting 2 2 2 7 4 2 11 7 12 2 1 11 2 2 2 1 0 0 0
Air Makeup System 2 2 2 4 1 2 12 2 11 6 2 1 18 19 5 1 6 18 0
Convection Radiators 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 5 11 7 1 2 0 0
Ducting - Exhaust 2 2 2 7 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 5 19 2 1 0 0 0
Ducting - Supply 2 2 2 4 1 2 2 2 2 6 1 1 7 19 2 1 0 5 0
Heating Boilers 2 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 5 5 1 0 14 0
Heating System - General 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 5 5 1 0 0 0
Heating System - Units 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 5 5 1 0 14 0
Storm Water Removal General 14 26 23 23 10 12 12 11 7 2 1 5 2 2 2 1 0 0 0
Heating Pumps 2 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 7 5 1 0 5 0
Heating Supply Lines 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 7 5 1 0 4 0
Air-Conditioning 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 11 3 2 42 32 5 7 0 0 0
Exhaust - General 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 2 2 11 3 1 16 19 5 7 3 7 0
Emergency Generator 2 2 4 2 1 2 32 2 2 26 11 11 19 2 2 1 0 0 0
Transfer Switch 2 2 4 2 1 2 16 2 2 17 6 5 2 2 2 1 0 0 0
Transformer 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 11 8 1 21 2 2 1 0 0 0
Roofing
Elevators
Climate Factor
Building Component
Grounds/Site
Structural
Building Envelope
Electrical
Mechanical
Life Safety

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moisture barrier is required. Overcladding is the preferred approach which can incorporate a combination
of resistance factors to environmental effects.
In addition, increased wetting increases the likelihood of corrosion of reinforcing steel at the exposed
concrete, including floor slab edges, columns and beams, and balcony slab edges. The depth of
carbonation is time and material dependant progressing at a rate of up to 2 to 3 mm/yr; however, the
degree of corrosion is largely a function of moisture content, pH of the concrete, and oxygen availability.
Reduction of moisture content from the exterior through overcladding will reduce the progression of
carbonation-induced corrosion and deterioration of the concrete slab edges.
Replacement Windows
In a survey of high-rise buildings conducted in 1998, 93% of the properties surveyed had all of the
windows replaced. The typical life span of the windows varied but 49% of the window replacement in
buildings constructed in the 1960s took place when the windows were between 25 and 30 years old. Only
7% exceeded 36 years.
The existing windows are thermally inefficient, leak air and water, and are reported to be responsible for
25% of the heat loss. The windows are also over 45 years old and thus, roughly 10 to 15 years past their
normal life span. Replacement can reduce heat loss and improve thermal comfort.
Window Air-conditioners and Window Remedial Work Options
The air-conditioner capacity and number of air-conditioners in the units is uncontrolled. Thus, the power
demand and the potential for overloading existing electrical circuitry is unknown. Since the air-
conditioner installation has been ad hoc, the stability of the installation is unknown. There is risk in the
air-conditioners falling from the opening.
It is anticipated that climate change and general desire for increased comfort consistent with newer
buildings will increase the number of window air conditioners installed with a corresponding increase in
risk associated with failure of those installations. Moreover, the air-conditioners are not installed in a
sleeve that is purpose-made for the installation in the existing window. Water penetration around the air-
conditioner will (continue to) leak into the interior space or interior of the wall system. Remedial work
must therefore integrate the window and air conditioning system if steps are to be taken to provide air
conditioning to the suites. Options include:
 New windows with air conditioner sleeves designed to drain
 New Incremental through wall units below windows
 New 2 or 4 pipe fan-coil system
 Cooling stations in the building
A feasibility study had been recommended to develop the cost/benefit of these options.
MANAGEMENT ACTION TO ACCOMMODATE CHANGES IN THE CAPACITY OF THE BUILDING
Along with the changes in the building systems, will be a need to amend maintenance practices and the
operational protocols associated with maintenance. Protocols and programs specific to the preferred
approach will vary. Key examples include:
 air conditioning supplied by any means requires ongoing equipment assessment and changing of
consumable parts, filters, belts, motors, etc.

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 overcladding will require altered maintenance of the overcladding finish dependant on the finish
materials and exposure.
PERFORMANCE (AND ASSOCIATED) MONITORING FOR RE-EVALUATION AT A LATER DATE
Education and interaction programs should be developed to advise tenants of the issues involving climate
change as related to their use of the building and to incorporate tenant expectations and needs into
possible changes to the building systems.
Associated with the general impact of the previous recommended physical alterations to the building, is
the study of the potential impact both in terms of timing and physical manifestation of probable ill health
effects on those most vulnerable to the predicted effects of climate change such as increased temperature,
increased humidity, etc. This would necessitate a study of social demographics and predicted trends as
the building continues to age and incorporate results of health relevant studies. Recommendations may
include means to monitor the general social demographic as well as identified individuals.
The physical and emotional impact on the tenancy of not making changes to the building should also be
explored. Should, for example, the building not be upgraded to accommodate improved thermal
performance, air conditioning for occupant comfort and new windows and ventilation systems, the
building may become stigmatized as “unlivable” making it functionally obsolete before it is physically
obsolete.
NECESSARY ADDITIONAL RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS
The building codes used in Canada currently do not incorporate values arising from climate change
prediction models but are based on regularly updated historical data. As predictive models are enhanced
and reliability becomes more aligned with the empirical data that designers are accustomed to using,
prediction data on environmental loads should be included in the climatological data available to
designers.
In addition, research is needed to develop the effects of combination loading involving environmental
conditions.
At present, the success or failure of moisture control methods relies on competent design, quality of
materials, resistance to deterioration, and installation practices. “Loads” for design for moisture control
and applicable “Resistance” factors similar to that routinely employed by structural designers may be a
paradigm worth pursuing.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Specific acknowledgement is given to the exceptional work by Heather Auld, a climatologist, in
supporting the case study with respected sources of data on climate change. The authors have employed
accrued experience in developing the findings supplementing the experience available in the following
documents.
1. Auld, H, 2008a. Adaptation by Design: The Impact of Changing Climate on Infrastructure.
Journal of Public Works and Infrastructure; 1 (3), May 2008. pp. 276-288.

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2. Auld, H, 2008b. Disaster Risk Reduction under Current and Changing Climate Conditions:
Important Roles for the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) Bulletin, 57 (2), April 2008. pp. 118-125.
3. Burnett A.W., M.E. Kirby, H.T. Mullins and W.P. Patterson, 2003. Increasing Great Lake–Effect
Snowfall during the Twentieth Century: A Regional Response to Global Warming? Journal of
Climate, 16: 3535-3542.
4. Changnon S.A., D. Changnon and T.R. Karl, 2006. Temporal and spatial Characteristics of
Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,
45: 1141-1155.
5. Cheng C.S., Q. Li, G. Li and H. Auld, 2012. Climate Change and Heavy Rainfall-Related Water
Damage Insurance Claims and Losses in Ontario, Canada. Journal of Water Resource and
Protection. Vol.4 No.2, 49-62.
6. Cheng C.S., G. Li. Q. Li, H. Auld and C. Fu, 2012. Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Wind
Gust under Downscaled Future Climate Conditions over Ontario, Canada. Journal of Climate, 25:
3390-3408.
7. Cheng, Shouquan, Guilong Li, Qian Li, Heather Auld, 2011a: A Synoptic Weather-Typing
Approach to Project Future Daily Rainfall and Extremes at Local Scale in Ontario, Canada. J.
Climate, 24, 3667–3685. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3764.1
8. Cheng, C.S., G. Li, and H. Auld, 2011b. Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain
using downscaled future climate scenarios: Updated for eastern Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol
49(1), pp. 8-21.
9. Cheng C.S., Q. Li, G. Li and H. Auld, 2010. A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Simulate
Daily Rainfall and Extremes in Ontario, Canada: Potential for Climate Change Projections.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 49, No. 5, 845-866.
10. Cheng, C.S., M. Campbell, Q. Li, G. Li, H. Auld, N. Day, D. Pengelly, S. Gingrich, J. Klaassen,
D. MacIver, N. Comer, Y. Mao, W. Thompson, H. Lin, 2008a. Differential and combined
impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south-central Canada.
Part I: Historical Analysis. Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health, 1: 209–222, DOI
10.1007/s11869-009-0027-1.
11. Cheng, C.S., M. Campbell, Q. Li, G. Li, H. Auld, N. Day, D. Pengelly, S. Gingrich, J. Klaassen,
D. MacIver, N. Comer, Y. Mao, W. Thompson, H. Lin, 2008b. Differential and combined
impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south-central Canada.
Part II: Future Estimates. Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health, 1: 223–235, DOI 10.1007/s11869-
009-0026-2.
12. Cheng, C.S., G. Li, Q. Li, H. Auld, 2008c.Statistical downscaling of hourly and daily climate
scenarios for various meteorological variables in south-central Canada. Theoretical and Applied
Climatology, DOI 10.1007/s00704-007-0302-8. 91: 129–147.
13. Cheng, C.S., H. Auld, G. Li, J. Klaassen, and Q. Li. 2007a. Possible impacts of climate change on
freezing rain in south-central Canada using downscaled future climate scenarios. Natural Hazards
Earth Systems. Science 7: 71-87. Available from: www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/71/2007/.
14. Cheng, C.S., M. Campbell, Q. Li, G. Li, H. Auld, N. Day, D. Pengelly, S. Gingrich, D. Yap.
2007b. A synoptic climatological approach to assess climatic impact on air quality in south-
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