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• When Claims Conflict
 Contradictions - If a claim conflicts with
other claims we have good reason to
accept, we have good grounds for doubting
it.
 If a claim conflicts with our background
information, we have good reason to doubt
it.
Chapter 4: Reasons for Belief and Doubt
Fact and Opinions
• Two meanings of “fact”
– State of affairs
– Claims that is true
• “That’s a matter of opinion”
– There are many different opinions about this issue
– There is no objective fact of the matter as the
grounds for deciding are entirely subjective
• Belief and Evidence
 We should proportion our belief to the
evidence.
 It’s not reasonable to believe a claim
when there is no good reason for doing
so.
• Experts and Evidence
 If a claim conflicts with expert opinion,
we have good reason to doubt it.
 Who is an expert?
 Access to more information on the subject
than we do
 They are better at judging that
information than we are.
When to rely on experts
• When they are experts in the relevant field
• When the are speaking or writing on their
subject of expertise
• When there is not some reason to doubt their
motivation
• When experts agree
• When the experts disagree about a claim, we
have good reason to doubt it.
Appeal to authority
• When any of the previous conditions is
violated the fallacy of appeal to authority is
committed.
• The reliance on expert opinion is undermined.
Some hints that the authority is dubious
• The expert is guilty of simple factual or formal errors.
• The expert’s claims conflict with what we have good
reason to believe.
• The expert does not adequately support his or her
assertions.
• The expert’s writing contains logical contradictions or
inconsistent statements
• The expert is strongly biased, emotional, or dismissive.
• The expert relies on information you know is out of date.
• The other experts in the same field disagree.
•Personal Experience
•It’s reasonable to accept the evidence
provided by personal experience only if
there’s no good reason to doubt it.
• Factors that can give us good reason to
doubt the reliability of personal experience:
 Impairment
 Expectation
 Innumeracy
Impairment
• Memory
– We construct our memories
• Perception
– We sometimes see what we want to see – the
constructive nature of perception
Expectation
• Experiments showing that if we are told that
something is going to happen we will
experience it
• Pareidolia
• Stereotypes and perceptions:
racism/sexism/prejudice
Innumeracy
• We (humans) are bad at making judgments
about probabilities.
• We frequently make misjudgments about
coincidences.
• Gambler’s fallacy
So what conclusion should we draw from this?
Don’t rely solely on our intuitions.
Fooling ourselves
• Resisting contrary evidence
• Looking for confirming evidence
• Preferring available evidence
Resisting contrary evidence
• We may deny, ignore, or reinterpret evidence
that contradicts cherished beliefs.
Looking only for confirming evidence
• Confirmation bias
• Popper’s point about confirmation – what
makes a theory scientific
Preferring available evidence
• Availability error
– Not just what is readily available in the sense of
easy to find, but also what is psychologically
available.
– Weighting what you have seen or experienced
more heavily than it should be weighted
– Hasty generalization
• How to evaluate the reliability of
the news:
 Consider whether the report conflicts
with what you have good reason to
believe.
 Look for reporter slanting.
 Consider the source.
 Check for missing information.
 Look for false emphasis.
 Check alternative news sources.
Advertising and persuasion
• We generally have good reason to doubt
advertising claims and to be wary of
advertising’s persuasive powers.
– The purpose of advertising is to sell or promote
something.
– History of misleading messages
Identification
• Snob appeal
– Ads asking you to identify with particular groups
of people
– Insinuating that you will be identified with such
people if you….
Slogans
• Catch phrases get our attention
Misleading comparisons
• Vagueness of comparisons
• What’s the baseline with which we are
comparing?
• Emptiness of claims
• Comparing “apples and oranges”
Weasel words
• Words which appear to make a strong claim
but are really close to lying
• Taking back what was said with modifiers that
undermine the claim

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Chapter4

  • 1. • When Claims Conflict  Contradictions - If a claim conflicts with other claims we have good reason to accept, we have good grounds for doubting it.  If a claim conflicts with our background information, we have good reason to doubt it. Chapter 4: Reasons for Belief and Doubt
  • 2. Fact and Opinions • Two meanings of “fact” – State of affairs – Claims that is true • “That’s a matter of opinion” – There are many different opinions about this issue – There is no objective fact of the matter as the grounds for deciding are entirely subjective
  • 3. • Belief and Evidence  We should proportion our belief to the evidence.  It’s not reasonable to believe a claim when there is no good reason for doing so.
  • 4. • Experts and Evidence  If a claim conflicts with expert opinion, we have good reason to doubt it.  Who is an expert?  Access to more information on the subject than we do  They are better at judging that information than we are.
  • 5. When to rely on experts • When they are experts in the relevant field • When the are speaking or writing on their subject of expertise • When there is not some reason to doubt their motivation • When experts agree
  • 6. • When the experts disagree about a claim, we have good reason to doubt it.
  • 7. Appeal to authority • When any of the previous conditions is violated the fallacy of appeal to authority is committed. • The reliance on expert opinion is undermined.
  • 8. Some hints that the authority is dubious • The expert is guilty of simple factual or formal errors. • The expert’s claims conflict with what we have good reason to believe. • The expert does not adequately support his or her assertions. • The expert’s writing contains logical contradictions or inconsistent statements • The expert is strongly biased, emotional, or dismissive. • The expert relies on information you know is out of date. • The other experts in the same field disagree.
  • 9. •Personal Experience •It’s reasonable to accept the evidence provided by personal experience only if there’s no good reason to doubt it. • Factors that can give us good reason to doubt the reliability of personal experience:  Impairment  Expectation  Innumeracy
  • 10. Impairment • Memory – We construct our memories • Perception – We sometimes see what we want to see – the constructive nature of perception
  • 11. Expectation • Experiments showing that if we are told that something is going to happen we will experience it • Pareidolia • Stereotypes and perceptions: racism/sexism/prejudice
  • 12. Innumeracy • We (humans) are bad at making judgments about probabilities. • We frequently make misjudgments about coincidences. • Gambler’s fallacy So what conclusion should we draw from this? Don’t rely solely on our intuitions.
  • 13.
  • 14. Fooling ourselves • Resisting contrary evidence • Looking for confirming evidence • Preferring available evidence
  • 15. Resisting contrary evidence • We may deny, ignore, or reinterpret evidence that contradicts cherished beliefs.
  • 16. Looking only for confirming evidence • Confirmation bias • Popper’s point about confirmation – what makes a theory scientific
  • 17. Preferring available evidence • Availability error – Not just what is readily available in the sense of easy to find, but also what is psychologically available. – Weighting what you have seen or experienced more heavily than it should be weighted – Hasty generalization
  • 18. • How to evaluate the reliability of the news:  Consider whether the report conflicts with what you have good reason to believe.  Look for reporter slanting.  Consider the source.  Check for missing information.  Look for false emphasis.  Check alternative news sources.
  • 19. Advertising and persuasion • We generally have good reason to doubt advertising claims and to be wary of advertising’s persuasive powers. – The purpose of advertising is to sell or promote something. – History of misleading messages
  • 20. Identification • Snob appeal – Ads asking you to identify with particular groups of people – Insinuating that you will be identified with such people if you….
  • 21. Slogans • Catch phrases get our attention
  • 22. Misleading comparisons • Vagueness of comparisons • What’s the baseline with which we are comparing? • Emptiness of claims • Comparing “apples and oranges”
  • 23.
  • 24. Weasel words • Words which appear to make a strong claim but are really close to lying • Taking back what was said with modifiers that undermine the claim