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Capital management under the
Solvency II regime


  Workshop material




             Pre-Conference Workshop material   1
Overview
Contents of this workshop
 Capital in Solvency II: A brief review

 Drivers of the SCR changes

 Drivers of the Own Funds changes

 Own Funds and SCR changes: Common Drivers

 Emerging risks – and their effect on Capital

 SCR and Own Funds: Modelling techniques and tools

                    Pre-Conference Workshop material   2
Capital in Solvency II
A brief review
 Solvency II prescribes a Capital Requirement (SCR)

 Own funds need to be valued by a new methodology

 Capital buffer: difference between own funds and SCR

 Managing this buffer is today’s topic




                    Pre-Conference Workshop material   3
Drivers of the SCR changes

 Market conditions

 Growth of Business

 Investment strategies

 Risk Mitigation

 Emerging risks



                      Pre-Conference Workshop material   4
Own Funds and SCR changes
Common drivers and their impact
 Market conditions

 Investment strategies

 Risk Mitigation




                      Pre-Conference Workshop material   5
Emerging risks
and their effect on Capital
 What are emerging risks

 How capital management should treat emerging risks

 Examples (to follow on dedicated slides)

 Free discussion (to be held offline)




                    Pre-Conference Workshop material   6
SCR and Own Funds I
Modelling techniques and tools
 Standard Formula
 (Partial) Internal models
 Examples (to follow on dedicated slides)
 Free discussion on tools used or considered (to be
held offline)




                    Pre-Conference Workshop material   7
SCR and Own Funds II
Standard Formula
 Simple to implement and is obligatory to use
 Automatically supports consistency with Own Funds
calculation (e.g. Technical Provisions)
 SCR is calculated by formulae calibrated at 99.5%
confidence for the majority of the insurance industry
 No option to assess other confidence levels
 Might not capture all (emerging) risks
 Doesn't give sufficient insight into the drivers of the
capital requirements for capital management purposes

                    Pre-Conference Workshop material    8
SCR and Own Funds III
(Partial) Internal Model
 An internal model is a complex solution covering all
risks faced by the Undertaking
 A Partial Internal Model combines an Internal Model
for the most relevant risks with the Standard Formula for
the rest
 Can be used to value Own Funds – if not used that
way, consistency of methodologies must be evidenced
 Reflects the Undertaking's view of the risk landscape
 Gives a better understanding of the risks taken and
supports business decisions
                   Pre-Conference Workshop material      9
Examples
SCR & Own Funds changes and their modelling
 ORSA requirements, business decisions (e.g. growth,
a new product of termination of one)
    Changes in investment policies
    Management of underwritten portfolio
    Underlying asset management (e.g. Unit Linked)
    Cost of capital changes
 Emerging risks, e.g. catastrophes not related to the
Underwriting risks (Fukushima scenario)


                    Pre-Conference Workshop material   10
Example 1
Underwriting risk – Reinsurance impact
 Reinsurance is a major technique of Risk Mitigation
 (Non-proportional) Reinsurance treaties are often not
handled fully by the Standard Formula
 Impact of Underwriting Risk on e.g. Sliding Scale
Ceding Commissions cannot be captured in the
Standard Formula
 Discussion to be held under blog post
 http://blog.functionalfinances.com/?p=15



                   Pre-Conference Workshop material   11
Example 2
Simulating Capital driven Underwriting
 Underwriting will always depend on risk appetite and
available capital
 Simulating future Underwriting needs a reactive model
also taking into account Capital Requirement changes
 Standard Formula based calculation will give limited
insight
 Discussion to be held under blog post
 http://blog.functionalfinances.com/?p=17



                   Pre-Conference Workshop material   12
Example 3
Management of Underlying
 Many insurance products having some underlying
asset (e.g. Unit Linked)
 Capital requirement for Market Risk will cover changes
of the value of the Underlying
 Underwriting policies will be partially Market Risk
Capital driven
 Discussion to be held under blog post
 http://blog.functionalfinances.com/?p=21



                    Pre-Conference Workshop material    13
Example 4
Emerging risks
 Emerging risks do not imply a Capital Requirement
 Still, it is the best to quantify the possible Capital
Impact of such risks materializing
 By the very construction, Standard Formula cannot be
used
 An Internal Model reflecting the current risk profile is
also insufficient
 Discussion to be held under blog post
 http://blog.functionalfinances.com/?p=26

                     Pre-Conference Workshop material      14

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Capital management under the Solvency II regime

  • 1. Capital management under the Solvency II regime Workshop material Pre-Conference Workshop material 1
  • 2. Overview Contents of this workshop  Capital in Solvency II: A brief review  Drivers of the SCR changes  Drivers of the Own Funds changes  Own Funds and SCR changes: Common Drivers  Emerging risks – and their effect on Capital  SCR and Own Funds: Modelling techniques and tools Pre-Conference Workshop material 2
  • 3. Capital in Solvency II A brief review  Solvency II prescribes a Capital Requirement (SCR)  Own funds need to be valued by a new methodology  Capital buffer: difference between own funds and SCR  Managing this buffer is today’s topic Pre-Conference Workshop material 3
  • 4. Drivers of the SCR changes  Market conditions  Growth of Business  Investment strategies  Risk Mitigation  Emerging risks Pre-Conference Workshop material 4
  • 5. Own Funds and SCR changes Common drivers and their impact  Market conditions  Investment strategies  Risk Mitigation Pre-Conference Workshop material 5
  • 6. Emerging risks and their effect on Capital  What are emerging risks  How capital management should treat emerging risks  Examples (to follow on dedicated slides)  Free discussion (to be held offline) Pre-Conference Workshop material 6
  • 7. SCR and Own Funds I Modelling techniques and tools  Standard Formula  (Partial) Internal models  Examples (to follow on dedicated slides)  Free discussion on tools used or considered (to be held offline) Pre-Conference Workshop material 7
  • 8. SCR and Own Funds II Standard Formula  Simple to implement and is obligatory to use  Automatically supports consistency with Own Funds calculation (e.g. Technical Provisions)  SCR is calculated by formulae calibrated at 99.5% confidence for the majority of the insurance industry  No option to assess other confidence levels  Might not capture all (emerging) risks  Doesn't give sufficient insight into the drivers of the capital requirements for capital management purposes Pre-Conference Workshop material 8
  • 9. SCR and Own Funds III (Partial) Internal Model  An internal model is a complex solution covering all risks faced by the Undertaking  A Partial Internal Model combines an Internal Model for the most relevant risks with the Standard Formula for the rest  Can be used to value Own Funds – if not used that way, consistency of methodologies must be evidenced  Reflects the Undertaking's view of the risk landscape  Gives a better understanding of the risks taken and supports business decisions Pre-Conference Workshop material 9
  • 10. Examples SCR & Own Funds changes and their modelling  ORSA requirements, business decisions (e.g. growth, a new product of termination of one) Changes in investment policies Management of underwritten portfolio Underlying asset management (e.g. Unit Linked) Cost of capital changes  Emerging risks, e.g. catastrophes not related to the Underwriting risks (Fukushima scenario) Pre-Conference Workshop material 10
  • 11. Example 1 Underwriting risk – Reinsurance impact  Reinsurance is a major technique of Risk Mitigation  (Non-proportional) Reinsurance treaties are often not handled fully by the Standard Formula  Impact of Underwriting Risk on e.g. Sliding Scale Ceding Commissions cannot be captured in the Standard Formula  Discussion to be held under blog post http://blog.functionalfinances.com/?p=15 Pre-Conference Workshop material 11
  • 12. Example 2 Simulating Capital driven Underwriting  Underwriting will always depend on risk appetite and available capital  Simulating future Underwriting needs a reactive model also taking into account Capital Requirement changes  Standard Formula based calculation will give limited insight  Discussion to be held under blog post http://blog.functionalfinances.com/?p=17 Pre-Conference Workshop material 12
  • 13. Example 3 Management of Underlying  Many insurance products having some underlying asset (e.g. Unit Linked)  Capital requirement for Market Risk will cover changes of the value of the Underlying  Underwriting policies will be partially Market Risk Capital driven  Discussion to be held under blog post http://blog.functionalfinances.com/?p=21 Pre-Conference Workshop material 13
  • 14. Example 4 Emerging risks  Emerging risks do not imply a Capital Requirement  Still, it is the best to quantify the possible Capital Impact of such risks materializing  By the very construction, Standard Formula cannot be used  An Internal Model reflecting the current risk profile is also insufficient  Discussion to be held under blog post http://blog.functionalfinances.com/?p=26 Pre-Conference Workshop material 14