Climate change and global health: book launch
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Slides for the launch of Climate Change and Global Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, October 2014. here is increasing understanding, globally, that climate change will have profound and mostly harmful effects on human health. This authoritative book brings together international experts to describe both direct (such as heat waves) and indirect (such as vector-borne disease incidence) impacts of climate change, set in a broad, international, economic, political and environmental context. This unique book also expands on these issues to address a third category of potential longer-term impacts on global health: famine, population dislocation, and conflict. This lively yet scholarly resource explores these issues fully, linking them to health in urban and rural settings in developed and developing countries. The book finishes with a practical discussion of action that health professionals can yet take. Read a chapter for free at http://www.cabi.org/openresources/42659.
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Climate change and global health: book launch
- 1. CRICOS #00212K Prof Colin Butler (Australian Research Council Future Fellow) Manson Lecture Theatre London School Hygiene & Tropical Medici , Friday, October 17, 2014
- 2. CRICOS #00212K “The expense may be considerable, but the cost of doing nothing is incalculable” Health in the Greenhouse Editorial (Lancet, 1989) 2
- 3. CRICOS #00212K Outline “Primary”, “secondary” and “tertiary” effects Attribution type I and type II errors Food price rise Conflict Acknowledgements 3
- 5. CRICOS #00212K Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban, The Philippines, Nov 2013 Strongest recorded storm to make landfall Direct death toll: >5,000 Displaced: >4 million Total Burden of Disease? Fraction attributable to climate change? 5
- 6. CRICOS #00212K Trenberth, 2011: Climate change attribution - null hypothesis: no human role “science community much too conservative .. too many authors make Type II errors” (accept the null hypothesis in error) – ie conclude any particular extreme event has no anthropogenic (human) component” 6 “Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities” WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–9 30. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
- 7. CRICOS #00212K Oreskes & Conway (2013): “Western scientists built an intellectual culture based on the premise that it was worse to fool oneself into believing in something that did not exist than not to believe in something that did. Scientists referred to these positions as “type I” and “type II” errors, and established protocols designed to avoid type I errors at almost all costs”. 7 Type 1 error spectrum Type 2 conservative? risky?
- 8. CRICOS #00212K Oreskes & Conway (2013): “Western scientists built an intellectual culture based on the premise that it was worse to fool oneself into believing in something that did not exist than not to believe in something that did. Scientists referred to these positions as “type I” and “type II” errors, and established protocols designed to avoid type I errors at almost all costs”. 8 Type 1 error spectrum Type 2 conservative? risky? precautionary? risky?
- 9. CRICOS #00212K Extreme weather events (Russia/Ukraine 2010; US drought/heat 2011-2012) oil price, speculation, rice panic FAO Food price index 9
- 13. CRICOS #00212K 1989: Lancet editorial: foreshadows conflict 2011: Jarvis et al: "Climate change, ill health, and conflict." BMJ 342: 777-778. 2014: Stern, N. “Climate change is here now and it could lead to global conflict.” The Guardian Conflict and climate change 13
- 14. CRICOS #00212K Water scarcity Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage • climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger • armed conflict, current/recent From UK Ministry of Defence [May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture] Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions 14
- 15. CRICOS #00212K Type 2 errors: Conclude 100% random, zero anthropogenic contribution to: heatwaves heavy rain/floods severe storms Conclude 100% social, zero eco (environmental) causation famine migration conflict 15
- 16. CRICOS #00212K Heat waves, fewer cold waves, injuries, floods, bushfires Infectious diseases, especially vector borne, allergies, air pollutants, infrastructure secondary primary tertiary Health effects of adverse global environmental change (including climatic) famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure 1616 Mentalhealth
- 17. CRICOS #00212K Burden of Disease (proportion) Year widely accepted now 2050? PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity) SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies) TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large- scale migration, economic collapse
- 19. CRICOS #00212K All contributors, CABI staff, Rachel Cutts, LSH&TM Tony McMichael, Paul Epstein Tony Capon, Andy Haines, Martin McKee Susan Woldenberg Butler Thank you 19 19
Editor's Notes
- People searching through the debris of destroyed buildings in the aftermath of a strike by Syrian government forces, in the neighborhood of Jabal Bedro, Aleppo, Syria, Tuesday (AP Photo/Aleppo Media Center AMC) Feb 2013 Dear presenting author, Dear submitter, Please find below more information regarding your poster presentation: Abstract ID 3268 Title Is climate change as large a health threat as some have proposed? A new conceptual framework suggests it is. Presenting author Colin Butler Presentation format Poster Poster format The poster should not exceed the following dimensions: 90 cm width x 130 cm height (~world format). Session V-03: Poster Viewing III Time Thursday, 22 Aug, 13:00-14:00 PublicationYour abstract will be published in an online searchable program on the conference website. Furthermore all abstracts are published in an EHP Environmental Health Perspectives (http://www.ehponline.org/) online file, which will have a fully citable DOI number. Setting up your poster on siteThe poster exhibition will take place in hall 4.1.of the Congress Center Basel - there will be staff available to assist you with the installation of your poster. Around 450 posters will be on display during your poster viewing session. Please ensure, that your poster is installed before 10h00. The posters may be uninstalled starting at 15:30 (after the coffee break). For the poster viewing sessions on Tuesday (Aug 20) and Wednesday (Aug 21) we ask you to make sure, that your poster is uninstalled at the end of the conference day to free the poster space for the following poster viewing session the next day. Presenting your posterThe presenters of the posters should be available for questioning during the poster viewing sessions, which will take place from 13h00-14h00. Poster Award CompetitionIf you are a student poster presenter, you have the possiblity to register for the poster award competition for one of the three societies organizing this conference (ISIAQ/ ISES/ISEE). Click on the following link for more information: http://see13.organizers-congress.ch/english/Poster-award-comp.php Online RegistrationPlease ensure, that at least the presenting author is registered for the conference and the presenting author information we received is correct (see above). Posters without a registered presenting author may be cancelled.Online Registration and further information is available through our conference website: www.ehbasel13.org Once again we would like to thank your for your contribution to the conference. We are looking forward to welcoming you soon in Basel!For the organizing committeeThe Registration Office
- 10-minute sustained wind speed of 230 kilometers per hour Nguyen, P., S. Sellars, A. Thorstensen, Y. Tao, H. Ashouri, D. Braithwaite, K. Hsu and S. Sorooshian (2014). "Satellites track precipitation of Super Typhoon Haiyan." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 95(16): 133-135.
- Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is unequivocal and very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142 Oreskes, N. and E. M. Conway (2013). "The collapse of Western civilization: a view from the future." Daedalus 142(1): 40-58. Trenberth, 2011: Past CC attribution studies assumed null hypothesis (no human role ) Challenge, therefore to prove anthropogenic component. .. CC unequivocal .. very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
- Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is unequivocal and very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142 Oreskes, N. and E. M. Conway (2013). "The collapse of Western civilization: a view from the future." Daedalus 142(1): 40-58. Trenberth, 2011: Past CC attribution studies assumed null hypothesis (no human role ) Challenge, therefore to prove anthropogenic component. .. CC unequivocal .. very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
- Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is unequivocal and very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142 Oreskes, N. and E. M. Conway (2013). "The collapse of Western civilization: a view from the future." Daedalus 142(1): 40-58. Trenberth, 2011: Past CC attribution studies assumed null hypothesis (no human role ) Challenge, therefore to prove anthropogenic component. .. CC unequivocal .. very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
- http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/12/science/earth/warning-on-global-food-supply.html?emc=eta1&_r=1&
- #16: spelling error: contiguous (not "continguous") #22: Panic! (remove the explanation mark)#22: good governance needs regulation and taxes global subsidies for fossil fuel exceed that for renewables by a ratio of about 6 to 1. In 2011 these subsidies exceeded 500 billion dollars – about ten times the clean-up costs for Hurricane Sandy, which struck the U.S. prior to its 2012 Federal election.
- #16: spelling error: contiguous (not "continguous") #22: Panic! (remove the explanation mark)#22: good governance needs regulation and taxes global subsidies for fossil fuel exceed that for renewables by a ratio of about 6 to 1. In 2011 these subsidies exceeded 500 billion dollars – about ten times the clean-up costs for Hurricane Sandy, which struck the U.S. prior to its 2012 Federal election.
- #16: spelling error: contiguous (not "continguous") #22: Panic! (remove the explanation mark)#22: good governance needs regulation and taxes global subsidies for fossil fuel exceed that for renewables by a ratio of about 6 to 1. In 2011 these subsidies exceeded 500 billion dollars – about ten times the clean-up costs for Hurricane Sandy, which struck the U.S. prior to its 2012 Federal election.
- Anonymous (1989). "Health in the greenhouse." Lancet 333: 819-820. Jarvis, L., H. Montgomery, N. Morisetti and I. Gilmore (2011). "Climate change, ill health, and conflict." BMJ 342: 777-778.
- Carbon sink – climate change – SOD; urbanisation – cultural services Highly indirect .. CONTESTED
- Fig. 26.2. This conceptual diagram compares the likely burden of disease from the primary, secondary and tertiary effects of climate change with the time at which the effects are likely to be widely accepted as causally related by the general and even the scientific community. Two major European heatwaves since 2000 (France and Russia) killed over 100,000 people. Both extreme events are likely to have been contributed to by climate change. Secondary effects, such as changes to vector-borne diseases, probably have a lower burden of disease. There has been greater scientific resistance to their reality, but this is fading. Tertiary effects such as the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the conflicts in Sudan and Syria are still regarded as speculative by most people, including most scientists. These events have the potential to cause a burden of disease at least of an order of magnitude higher than the others. Waiting for complete consensus is to wait too long.