This document provides an overview of reasons to be hopeful about addressing humanity's impact on the planet despite various challenges. It notes that while evolutionary forces have rewarded both aggression towards the planet and cooperation, the challenge is to reach a threshold of global cooperation before resource depletion leads to a "fortress world." It highlights pioneers working on ecological economics and planetary health as reasons for optimism. The document argues that increasing global cooperation, technology, lifestyle changes and shifts in consciousness can help solve environmental problems.

1. Consuming the planet:
reasons to be hopeful
Adjunct Prof Colin D Butler
Health Research Institute, University of Canberra
National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, Australian National University
College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide
BODHI, BODHI Australia @ColinDavdButler
Australasian Society
of Lifestyle Medicine
conference
Manly, NSW, September 2017

2. Propositions:
Evolutionary forces have rewarded humans that are collectively
ingenious but also aggressive, not only towards the planet, but to
other people, usually in groups.
The same evolutionary forces have generated and rewarded co-
operation, on increasing scales.
The challenge for civilisation is to reach a threshold of global co-
operation before our options run out and triage strategies lead to a
“fortress world” in which human well-being is scarce.

3. The environmentalist’s “paradox”
Limits to growth and “peak health”
Planetary boundaries, climate change and health
Solutions
Pioneers of ecological economics and planetary health
A social vaccine, technology, lifestyle change, consciousness
Butler, C. D. (2017). "Limits to growth, planetary boundaries, and planetary health "
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 25: 59-65. free link til 1/11/17 : https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1VifV6gsyPQHK5

4. Raudsepp-Hearne C et al, BioScience 2010
animals – aquifers – ecosystems - forests – fossil fuels – freshwater –
habitat – human habitat - phosphate – pollution sinks – rare earths –
soil

5. Artist unidentified
feasting on the planet .. so far, so good..
5

6. https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/gallery/2017/aug/14/how-the-wealthy-live-dubai-rich-set-in-pictures-nick-
hannes-bread-circuses#img-5

7. August 2017
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2017/07/05/WATCH-Truck-
MELTS-into-road-as-Kuwait-swelters-in-extreme-heat.html
Kuwait registers record high temperature
July 23, 2016
http://www.timeskuwait.com/Times_Kuwait-registers-record-high-temperature

8. 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
population(millions) global population: 0-2017
Limits to Growth (1972): 3.9 bn
Planetary Boundaries (2009): 6.9 bn
Data: Durand, UN, Manning
“checks”
Life expectancy also rising, now >70 years

9. Limits to growth and “peak health”
Planetary boundaries

10. 10

11. Modelled world economy and environment
• Many scenarios modelled from 1900 to 2100
• Most lead to “overshoot and collapse”
Widely believed to forecast resource scarcity and
collapse by year 2000
• leading to false claims that it was wrong
The Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth (LTG) (Meadows et al)
Best selling environmental book of 1970s

12. Turner, G. M. (2008). A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change 18: 397– 411.
Brijnath, B., McMichael, A. J. and Butler, C.D. (2012). Rio+20: Don’t forget health in sustainability talks. Nature 486: 191.
Courtesy Graham Turner

13. Peak health?
Turner, G. M. (2008). A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change 18: 397– 411.
Brijnath, B., McMichael, A. J. and Butler, C.D. (2012). Rio+20: Don’t forget health in sustainability talks. Nature 486: 191.
Courtesy Graham Turner

14. Limits to Growth
Cheap energy
Pollution sinks
Crop yield increase
Biosphere integrity
Complexity
Tolerance & compassion
}
}
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all
limited
Tainter, J. A. (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

15. From forecasting and models (1970s) to abundant data and
evidence .. not sufficiently acted on by policy makers, under-
appreciated within academia
1. Persistently high energy price
2. Stagnant economic “growth”
3. Flattened “genuine progress”
4. Return of famines
5. Increasing civil wars
6. “Health for all” a dream
7. Retreat of civilization and strengthening “fortress world”
Butler, Intl Soc Env Epidem, 2013

16. "Our proposed framework builds on and extends
approaches based on limits-to-growth (Meadows
et al. 1972, 2004)”
Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. et al, (2009). Planetary boundaries:
exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and
Society 14(2).
Limits to Growth not cited in their better known papers:
Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. et al (2009). A safe operating space
for humanity. Nature 461: 472-475.
Steffen, W., K. Richardson, et al (2015). Planetary boundaries:
Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science
347(6223) 1259855.
Butler, C. D. (2017). "Limits to growth, planetary
boundaries, and planetary health "
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 25:
59-65. free link til 1/11/17 :
https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1VifV6gsyPQHK5
16

17. Data: ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt, other
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
CH4
CO2
(ppm)

18. Burden of
Disease
Year widely accepted
now 2050?
PRIMARY (e.g. heat,
injury)
SECONDARY (e.g. vector-
borne diseases, air
pollution, allergies)
TERTIARY: “systemic
multiplier”) famine,
conflict, large-scale
migration, economic
collapse
Butler, 2014

19. Primary
Secondary
Old location
Hurricane Harvey related to climate
change because:
1. Sea level rise
2. Warmer sea, at depth
2. Warmer atmosphere, more rain
3. Stalled storm – may be related to
wavier Jetstream, Arctic ice melt(AFP Photo/Thomas B. Shea)
https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-
way-prevent-explosion-texas-
chemical-plant-222753824.html

20. Extensive US droughts (2012-2013, Ca
2013-14)
– dryness and heat
Data: FAO
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

21. A complex “tertiary” “eco-social” effect
Drought – probably climate change related
High population growth (though falling), aquifer depletion
and dammed rivers in Turkey
Loss of subsidies price shocks
Outside factors
Limited compassion and tolerance
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-
sWEupgTFIg4/WRx1BugbLqI/AAAAAAAAlRk/ugeNsz3VMmoPuOVJvJ76rYxkqsRQFzR_QCJoC/w2560-
h1700/IMG_2017-01-31-114049.jpg ‫غالي‬ ‫أيجاره‬ ‫الفرح‬ ‫بيت‬ ‫الن‬ ‫سنين‬ ‫من‬ ‫ساكن‬ ‫الحزن‬ ‫ابيت‬ ‫انه‬.....
SYRIA
War
Trauma, mental and physical
Migration
Loss of infrastructure, education and public health capacity also harms short and long-
term health
21

22. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-
sWEupgTFIg4/WRx1BugbLqI/AAAAAAAAlRk
/ugeNsz3VMmoPuOVJvJ76rYxkqsRQFzR_QC
JoC/w2560-h1700/IMG_2017-01-31-
114049.jpg ‫بيت‬ ‫الن‬ ‫سنين‬ ‫من‬ ‫ساكن‬ ‫الحزن‬ ‫ابيت‬ ‫انه‬
‫غالي‬ ‫أيجاره‬ ‫الفرح‬.....

23. “The expense may be considerable, but the
cost of doing nothing is incalculable”
Health in the Greenhouse
Editorial (Lancet, 1989)

24. Planetary boundaries
silent on social consequences, including
conflict

25. 25

26. Too soon to say?
Massive increase in individual killing power
26

27. Too soon to say?
Massive increase in individual killing power
Violence against
is out of control
Clown fish vivid against
bleached coral, 2016
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-
oz/2016/apr/21/mourning-loomis-reef-the-heart-of-the-great-
barrier-reefs-coral-bleaching-disaster
The Tragic Tale of a Pangolin, the World’s
Most Trafficked Animal
http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/short-film-
showcase/the-tragic-tale-of-a-pangolin-the-worlds-most-trafficked-
animal
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/0317
9/Pangolin_and_her_b_3179348b.jpg
27

28. Climate change will 'lead to battles for food', says head of World Bank
(April 2014)
(Dr) Jim Yong Kim urges campaigners and scientists to work together to form a
coherent plan in the fight against climate change
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/03/climate-change-battle-food-head-world-bank

29. The far-sighted amongst you are anticipating broader global impacts
on property, migration and political stability, as well as food
and water security. …
Mark Carney, 2015
(Governor of the
Bank of England)
Carney M. Breaking the tragedy of the horizon – climate change and financial stability.
http://wwwbankofenglandcouk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/844aspx

30. Double standards
The power of corporations
who shape what we think and are told

31. “We have 50% of the world’s wealth, but only 6.3%
of its population... we cannot fail to be the object of
envy and resentment. Our real task is to devise a
pattern of relationships which will permit us to
maintain this position of disparity without positive
detriment to our national security...”
Kennan, 1948
31

34. https://geddry.com/2016/03/29/turning-point-climate-fight-ags-
unite-target-exxon-crimes/

35. “Exxon Mobil's response to climate change
is consummate arrogance”
Bill McKibben, 2014
Unprecedented wildfires are burning in the American west.
What does big oil have to say about climate change?
35

36. a social
vaccine
technology
a role for
health
workers
Am I really hopeful?
Solutions

37. Kenneth Boulding (1910-93)
The Economics of Spaceship Earth
“the only person who believes in
perpetual economic growth is either a
madman or an economist”

39. UN Human Rights Declaration; Eleanor Roosevelt, 1947
After WWII:
hope humanity
gained maturity
from its then
recent, immense
suffering
Also Doc Evatt
39From Mary Glendon: “A
World Made New”

40. US President Harry S. Truman
inaugural address 1949
continue unfaltering support to the UN
we must embark on a bold new program
for making the benefits of our scientific
advances and industrial progress
available for the improvement and
growth of underdeveloped areas

41. Materialism: necessary for well-being, not
sufficient.
Connection with other people and with
nature.
Excess materialism harms planet, also
ourselves; consider Ebenezer Scrooge
"Even the blind men’s dogs
appeared to know him; .. when
they saw (Scrooge) coming ..
would tug their owners into
doorways and up courts; .. wag
their tails as though they said,
“No eye at all is better than an
evil eye, dark master!”Scooge and Marley's ghost,
Illustration: John Leech, 1843

42. ToxicityPlacebo
Vaccine spectrumsocial vaccine spectrum
Despair
Sufficient bad news to stimulate action
Sufficient good news to stimulate action

43. The accelerating energy transition

44. Floating solar farm, China
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/06/09/17/4143879B00000578-4589114-
The_floating_plant_was_built_on_top_of_a_lake_where_water_floode-a-63_1497024122044.jpg

45. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIkaJ0ZXAAEe89H.jpg:large

46. from fossil fuels, industry
Jackson et al, Nature Climate
Change, 2016
CO2 emissions (GtCO22yr-1)

47. Jackson et al, Nature Climate
Change, 2016
but not from fossil fuels,
industry; meat and dairy
CO2 emissions (GtCO22yr-1)

48. Towards a solution: consciousness
and behaviour
Ditch the car and lose half a stone – The Telegraph, 2014
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/11042821/Ditch-the-car-and-lose-half-a-stone-research-
shows-public-transport-linked-to-lower-BMI.html
http://www.thegreynomads.com.au
/outback-towns-terrorised-by-
plague-of-kangaroos/

49. Eroding the social license
Maules Creek coal mine, NSW Australia 2014
https://leard.frontlineaction.org/ipcc-contributor-participates-in-blockade/

50. Theodore Parker, a 19th century abolitionist who inspired Martin Luther King
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/11/15/arc-of-universe/
“the ARC of the MoRAl univeRse is long, but
it bends towARds justiCe”