Climate change and health: an evolving planetary health emergency?
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This document discusses the health impacts of climate change and outlines several key points: 1) Climate change is presenting an evolving planetary health emergency, with impacts including increased heat waves and infectious diseases as well as secondary and tertiary effects such as conflicts over resources. 2) Extreme heat events have already led to increased mortality, as seen in India and France where heat waves resulted in thousands of extra deaths. 3) In addition to direct health impacts, climate change can act as a "multiplier of conflicts" by exacerbating issues like water scarcity, hunger and population pressure. 4) While the costs of mitigating climate change may be large, "the cost of doing nothing is incalculable." F
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Climate change and health: an evolving planetary health emergency?
- 1. CRICOS #00212K Prof Colin Butler, ARC Future Fellow Climate change: an evolving planetary health emergency?
- 2. CRICOS #00212K “We play Russian roulette with climate, hoping that the future will hold no unpleasant surprises. No one knows what lies in the active chamber of the gun". Broecker WS. Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse? Nature 1987;328:123-126. 2
- 3. CRICOS #00212K “The expense may be considerable, but the cost of doing nothing is incalculable” Health in the Greenhouse Editorial (Lancet, 1989) 3
- 4. 44 CRICOS #00212K “Demand will create a parachute”
- 5. CRICOS #00212K 5 What does this mean for society? and health??
- 6. CRICOS #00212K 6 Unmet electricity need Global G lEonbearlg Ey nAesrsgeys sAmsesnets, s2m01e2nt, 2012 6
- 7. Lack of “modern” energy Most electricity is not clean “Coal for all”? Clean(er) energy for many? CRICOS #00212K Global Energy Assessment, 2012 7
- 8. CRICOS #00212K 8 Released Sept 2014
- 9. CRICOS #00212K Health effects of adverse global environmental change Heat waves, fewer cold waves, injuries, floods, fires Infectious diseases, especially vector borne, allergies, air pollutants, infrastructure primary secondary tertiary famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure 99 Mental health
- 10. CRICOS #00212K “Primary” “Tertiary” 10 “Secondary” Old location
- 11. CRICOS #00212K Max temp 2010 May 1-31 Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave (Azhar et al, 2014) (adapted) Max temp 2009-and 2011 11 Daily deaths 2009 & 2011, 2010
- 12. CRICOS #00212K Paris, Heatwave (2003): Daily Mean Temps and Deaths 35 oC Mean 30 daily temp, 2003 Mean daily temp 1999- 2002 ~12 oC above season norm 25 20 15 oC June …..……………… July …………………. ………… August ………. ~900 extra deaths during heatwave 350 300 250 200 150 Daily deaths 100 50 0 van den Torren, 2004 +8 oC +12 oC ~100 extra deaths Daily deaths: 2003 1999-2002
- 13. CRICOS #00212K Extreme heat and health: who is vulnerable? Elderly People with chronic disease (renal, cardiac, dementia?) Poor Mentally ill Multiple sclerosis Emergency workers Military personnel? Many workers in already hot places, eg factories, cane cutters, labourers in Middle East 13
- 14. CRICOS #00212K Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines on Nov 7, 2013. Credit: EUMETSAT (Wide-angle satellite image) 14
- 15. CRICOS #00212K Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban, The Philippines Strongest recorded storm to make landfall Direct death toll: >5,000 Displaced: >4 million Total Burden of Disease? Fraction attributable to climate change? 15
- 16. CRICOS #00212K A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine city fails to rebuild homes Date: 29-Oct-14 Country: PHILIPPINES Tacloban Mayor: <100 of 14,500 promised permanent homes built, (7m storm surges destroyed around 90% of city) “The nephew of Imelda Marcos did not mention graft as factor in one of Asia's most corrupt countries” 16
- 17. CRICOS #00212K
- 19. CRICOS #00212K “Tertiary” health effects primary secondary tertiary famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure 1199 Mental health
- 20. CRICOS #00212K (nominal prices) 20 Butler, 2013
- 21. CRICOS #00212K Russia/Ukraine heat/drought US droughts Butler 21
- 22. CRICOS #00212K Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage • climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger • armed conflict, current/recent Water scarcity From UK Ministry of Defence [May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture] 22
- 23. CRICOS #00212K SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies) Burden of Disease (proportion) PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity) TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large-scale economic collapse now 2050? migration, Year widely accepted 23
- 24. CRICOS #00212K Eco-medicine? The good news is you’re too big to let fail Pope Canberra Times 29.10.08 The good news is you’re too big to let fail The bad news is it’s hard to get a government bailout until your stocks completely crash 24 Towards a solution
- 25. CRICOS #00212K Toxicity 25 Placebo Vaccine spectrum
- 26. CRICOS #00212K “Social vaccine” spectrum Panic, despair, or indifference 26 “Polyanna”
- 27. 27 CRICOS #00212K “Coal is good for humanity”
- 28. 28 CRICOS #00212K President Royal Society 2005-2010 “Peak health”
- 29. “The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be 29 CRICOS #00212K discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’ Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
- 30. CRICOS #00212K Qld govt “future vision 2044” 30
- 31. CRICOS #00212K Crisis = opportunity 31
- 32. CRICOS #00212K Ingenuity in the Year without a summer (1816) 32
- 33. CRICOS #00212K Rod Simpson 33
- 34. CRICOS #00212K NUCLEAR Solar (1975-2007 2007-10) Global Energy Assessment, 2012 US$/kwH (2005 dollars) 34
- 35. CRICOS #00212K
- 36. CRICOS #00212K 36 36
- 37. CRICOS #00212K The QWERTY Phenomenon SUBSIDIES: fossil fuel /renewables: 6 to 1 (2011 ) 10 times more than costs of Hurricane Sandy Lock-in of Technological and Social Cultures & Institutions 37
- 39. CRICOS #00212K He Had a dream 39
Editor's Notes
- Conjuring a parachute At 7:30 pm on Wednesday 20 JuneWhere: At the Fenner Building, ANU Prophets of the impending collapse of civilisation are increasing in number and credibility, bolstered by accumulating evidence. Glib reassurances of hope, technological rescue and reminders of previous false prophets of doom no longer bring relief; new strategies are needed. These include eroding the social contract that permits actions that poison our collective future, analysis of denial, and exposure of oppression. We need to create “social vaccines”; new fables that can help thwart collapse. Principally, we need a vast social movement; with scores of overlapping approaches. These are just a few. Associate Professor Colin D Butler is an Australian Research Council Future Fellow. His topic concerns Australia’s social sustainability, in a global context of increasing resource scarcity. He is a medically trained epidemiologist, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University. In 2009 he was named one of “a hundred doctors for the planet”. -----Original Message----- From: Colin Butler Sent: Sunday, 5 February 2012 10:39 AM To: Jenny Wanless Subject: RE: Talk to NSF in June Jenny Perhaps I could talk on this general topic (communication, hostility, denial, partying - &quot;shopping therapy&quot; - eg Dubai tower, Qatar soccer, &quot;small wins&quot;, a &quot;social vaccine&quot;). Below is a long abstract, (accepted) for a meeting on emergent risk to be held at Princeton in September. Below that is part of a recent grant application, of relevance. Attached is a recent editorial, also relevant, and a book review of McKibben&apos;s &quot;Eaarth&quot;. Fundamentally, though, I think a grossly dysfunctional (even if understandable) human response to the proximity of a looming crisis makes the crisis inevitable; think of Europe pre WWII, the French Court pre revolution.. Important to keep some hope, though! Colin PS I welcome comments, including ones that are critical. *** Understanding cyclic vulnerability to reduce the risk of global collapse Colin D Butler Australian National University (Princeton emerging risk conference) Population vulnerability is cyclic, analogous to immunity. Following epidemics, surviving populations have sufficient antibodies to inhibit repeat infection until a sufficient number of immunologically vulnerability people accrue, due to waning immunity and the maturing of a new generation. Other forms of cyclic risk exist, driven by the waxing and waning of collective memory and behaviour and amplified by the rise and fall of social mechanisms. Three examples are global conflict, inequality and economic history. In the first, strong global social forces following World War II (WWII) led to a sufficiently vigorous social contract to inhibit very large-scale state violence, fortified by numerous institutions including the United Nations. Almost 70 years later, the social immunity generated by the two World Wars is still fairly powerful, though some of the institutions are weakening. The second example concerns inequality. Following the Depression and WWII sufficient social forces were liberated to reduce inequality of several forms; in the US memory of the gilded age faded, in the UK the National Health Service was born, and the global wave of decolonisation appeared unstoppable. However, gradually, many forms of inequality have reappeared, including in most formerly Communist nations. Economic history comprises the third example. Economic booms and busts have occurred since at least the Great Tulip frenzy (1634-37), and the cycle continues, not least because mainstream opinion in new generations asserts that the problem has been solved and a new generation of naive speculators and investors is seduced. Today, global civilisation itself is threatened. This risk may be emergent, as defined by this meeting, but is also ancient and recurrent. Numerous civilisations have collapsed in the past; what differs today is the global scale of this risk. This is plausible due not only to globalisation but also to the convergence of several forms of risk immuno-naïveté. This vulnerability has also been described as arising from the Cornucopian Enchantment, a period since roughly 1980, when most economists, decision makers and even the academy reached quasi-consensus that the problem of scarcity had been permanently solved. This hubris seemed rational to a new generation, trained and rewarded to think that economics and ingenuity would of themselves solve all major problems; such pride was fortified (for a time) by data regarding cheap food, cheap energy and declining global hunger. However, in the last decade, data have accumulated that show not just diminishing reserves (eg oil); but less contestable evidence such as rising prices (oil, food), rising unemployment and increased social resentment. Nevertheless, most policy makers remain wedded to the old-world thinking that has helped create these developing, interacting crises. What can be more important than to reduce the emergent risk of global civilisation collapse? Failure to lower this risk may lead to a dramatic change in global consciousness, following a period likely to make the Dark Ages seem desirable. Instead, it is vital to immunise a sufficient number of people who can then demand, develop and support the requisite radical new policies. These include acceptance that resources are limited, development of green economic systems that will price negative externalities, and revival of fairness of opportunity. **** part of the grant application: Project 5.3 Climate change and public health communication [Butler, Steffen] There is increasing evidence that both suppression ((C. D. Butler, 2000; Oreskes & Conway, 2010) and cognitive barriers (eg denial, bias to optimism) inhibit understanding of the risk of adverse global change, including to the climate (C. D. Butler, 2011; Diethelm & McKee, 2009; Ornstein & Ehrlich, 1989). These impede policy uptake. Improved understanding of collective social and cognitive factors that protect or endanger civilisation, and thus population health, is an urgent research need. For example, global abhorrence of further war followed World War II, leading to the birth of the United Nations and other peace-promoting institutions (C. D. Butler, 2000). Although weakening, their influence persists, as if the horror of the previous decades had produced a temporary global social vaccine. To prevent future global eco-social collapse, workers can devise social vaccines which balance dysfunctlonal arousal (Weick, 1984) (likely to trigger outcomes such as despair and indifference) and a placebo, which induces complacency. Methods: This project will review and synthesise the emerging literature in this field and also interview key informants (including CIs McMichael and Steffen) concerning perceived barriers which inhibit policy uptake. Outcomes will include conference presentations and an edited book. Benefits should include better uptake of difficult messages by populations and thus policy makers. -----Original Message----- From: Jenny Wanless [mailto:jennifer.wanless@gmail.com] Sent: Sun 05/02/2012 09:42 To: Colin Butler Subject: Re: Talk to NSF in June Indeed I remember that you spoke to us. And yes,we have made very little progress - or more probably gone backward since that time. More and more of the public are vociferously opposed to any idea that humans are inducing climate change or anything else harming the earth. It even seems that more deny evolution. It is very puzzling. At NSF we have a couple of groups who have been talking about this recently. Tony McMichael said he had had an overwhelmingly hostile reaction to an article he published recently. He said that scientists are realising that they are failing to communicate, and wondering where they have gone wrong. If you have any answers we would be delighted to hear them - but I am not hopeful. Our meetings are on the third Wednesday, so it would be 20th June, 7.30pm. Speakers have half an hour to an hour, but we do want some time for discussion, and we finish about 9pm. And I don&apos;t deserve any congratulations - Ian did it, not me. But I am pleased to have brought up a mathematician. Jenny On Sat, Feb 4, 2012 at 9:19 PM, Colin Butler &lt;[email_address]&gt;wrote: &gt; ** &gt; &gt; Jenny &gt; &gt; Thanks .. and congratulations to you and your son.. &gt; &gt; I am planning to hear Nicole Foss on the 13th, and probably my topic &gt; will be somewhat related; I will try to come up with a title and short &gt; description after hearing her. Please do not hesitate to nag me if you &gt; think I have overlooked advising you. &gt; &gt; Do you have a provisional date in June, and also a suggested time to speak? &gt; &gt; You may recall that I spoke to N&SF in early 1998 - we have more or &gt; less continued with business as usual since that time; indeed you &gt; might say since Limits to Growth appeared, 40 years ago. &gt; &gt; Best wishes &gt; &gt; &gt; Colin &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; -----Original Message----- &gt; From: Jenny Wanless &gt; [mailto:jennifer.wanless@gmail.com&lt;jennifer.wanless@gmail.com&gt; &gt; ] &gt; Sent: Sat 04/02/2012 20:49 &gt; To: Colin Butler &gt; Subject: Re: Talk to NSF in April &gt; &gt; That would be great - it sounds very relevant. Please let me know in &gt; another month or so whether that still suits you, and a title for yout &gt; talk. &gt; Tony told me it was the recent round, so I took his word for it. &gt; Actually I am the proud mother of a Future Fellow - our younger son &gt; Ian was awarded it in the recent round, but he is in Pure Maths - Combinatorics. &gt; I&apos;m very glad that you were awarded it in something to do with &gt; sustainability - maybe the Government will take some notice of it. &gt; JennyW &gt; &gt; On Sat, Feb 4, 2012 at 11:44 AM, Colin Butler &lt;Colin.Butler@anu.edu.au &gt; &gt;wrote: &gt; &gt; &gt; ** &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Jenny &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Yes, I do remember you - of course! &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; The Future Fellowship was actually awarded in late 2010, not the &gt; &gt; most recent round. &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Its topic is &quot;Health and sustainability: Australia in a global context.&quot; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; I have a pretty hectic time in the next three months, but perhaps a &gt; &gt; talk in June or so would be possible? &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Best wishes &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Colin &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; -----Original Message----- &gt; &gt; From: Jenny Wanless &gt; &gt; [mailto:jennifer.wanless@gmail.com&lt;jennifer.wanless@gmail.com&gt; &gt; &lt;[email_address]&gt; &gt; &gt; ] &gt; &gt; Sent: Sat 04/02/2012 11:31 &gt; &gt; To: Colin Butler &gt; &gt; Subject: Talk to NSF in April &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Dear Colin - remember me? I&apos;m still secretary of the Nature and &gt; &gt; Society Forum. Last week I asked Tony Capon whether he would talk to &gt; &gt; NSF at our 18th April meeting. He suggested you instead. He told me &gt; &gt; that you &gt; received &gt; &gt; a Future Fellowship in the recent ARC round of grants. &gt; &gt; Congratulations - that is very prestigious. What is your field? &gt; &gt; Anway, I am sure it is something that is relevant to our concerns It &gt; &gt; has been a long time since &gt; we &gt; &gt; heard from you, so I do hope you will agree to talk to us some time &gt; &gt; even &gt; if &gt; &gt; April does not suit you. &gt; &gt; Jenny Wanless &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Even before that World Health Day I heard a joke. Two people have fallen from a very tall building. One is an ecologist and the other is an economist. The ecologist is terrified, but the economist is supremely calm. Don’t worry, he says, “demand will create a parachute”. The person who told us that joke was vilified by many people; some of you will have heard of him. His name is Paul Ehrlich. If we go back to the vaccine analogy, it is very clear that Ehrlich alienated many people because his message was too painful. I personally think, on good days, that a parachute is possible. But we are not going to use that parachute unless we can see the ground, and unless we can anticipate the consequences of hitting it, and I think far too, many people, including policy makers, politicians and what we could call the consuming class of about 1 billion people are in denial. They cannot see the ground, though by now, perhaps a few hundred million can, and they are calling very hard for the ripcord to be pulled. -----
- Figure 2.3. The detection of climate change impacts on qualitatively differing systems: geophysical processes, natural ecological relationships, and human wellbeing and health. The process of attribution is much more complex and difficult for that third, human, impact category – especially since many other aspects of human culture, circumstances and behaviour bear on human health, and often change over time.
- Figure TS-26 | Historical experience with household electrification in select countries. Source: Chapter 19 .
- Figure TS-4 | Density of population lacking access to modern energy carriers in 2005. Colored areas show people per km 2 without access to electricity and those that use solid fuels for cooking, e.g., dark blue and red areas show where people do not have access to electricity and cook predominately using solid fuels. Source: Chapters 17 and 19 .
- Carbon sink – climate change – SOD; urbanisation – cultural services Highly indirect .. CONTESTED
- People searching through the debris of destroyed buildings in the aftermath of a strike by Syrian government forces, in the neighborhood of Jabal Bedro, Aleppo, Syria, Tuesday (AP Photo/Aleppo Media Center AMC) Feb 2013 Dear presenting author, Dear submitter, Please find below more information regarding your poster presentation: Abstract ID 3268 Title Is climate change as large a health threat as some have proposed? A new conceptual framework suggests it is. Presenting author Colin Butler Presentation format Poster Poster format The poster should not exceed the following dimensions: 90 cm width x 130 cm height (~world format). Session V-03: Poster Viewing III Time Thursday, 22 Aug, 13:00-14:00 PublicationYour abstract will be published in an online searchable program on the conference website. Furthermore all abstracts are published in an EHP Environmental Health Perspectives (http://www.ehponline.org/) online file, which will have a fully citable DOI number. Setting up your poster on siteThe poster exhibition will take place in hall 4.1.of the Congress Center Basel - there will be staff available to assist you with the installation of your poster. Around 450 posters will be on display during your poster viewing session. Please ensure, that your poster is installed before 10h00. The posters may be uninstalled starting at 15:30 (after the coffee break). For the poster viewing sessions on Tuesday (Aug 20) and Wednesday (Aug 21) we ask you to make sure, that your poster is uninstalled at the end of the conference day to free the poster space for the following poster viewing session the next day. Presenting your posterThe presenters of the posters should be available for questioning during the poster viewing sessions, which will take place from 13h00-14h00. Poster Award CompetitionIf you are a student poster presenter, you have the possiblity to register for the poster award competition for one of the three societies organizing this conference (ISIAQ/ ISES/ISEE). Click on the following link for more information: http://see13.organizers-congress.ch/english/Poster-award-comp.php Online RegistrationPlease ensure, that at least the presenting author is registered for the conference and the presenting author information we received is correct (see above). Posters without a registered presenting author may be cancelled.Online Registration and further information is available through our conference website: www.ehbasel13.org Once again we would like to thank your for your contribution to the conference. We are looking forward to welcoming you soon in Basel!For the organizing committeeThe Registration Office
- Wide-angle satellite image showing Super Typhoon Haiyan approach the Philippines on November 7, 2013.Credit: EUMETSAT http://www.climatecentral.org/news/globe-saw-a-record-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2013-17037
- 10-minute sustained wind speed of 230 kilometers per hour Nguyen, P., S. Sellars, A. Thorstensen, Y. Tao, H. Ashouri, D. Braithwaite, K. Hsu and S. Sorooshian (2014). &quot;Satellites track precipitation of Super Typhoon Haiyan.&quot; Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 95(16): 133-135.
- A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine city fails to rebuild homes Date: 29-Oct-14Country: PHILIPPINESAuthor: Manuel Mogato http://planetark.org/wen/72387 The mayor of the central Philippine city worst hit by a super typhoon a year ago said on Tuesday fewer than 100 of 14,500 promised permanent homes had been built and that thousands were still living in danger zones. Typhoon Haiyan wiped out or damaged practically everything in its path as it swept ashore on Nov. 8, 2013, with seven-meter storm surges destroying around 90 percent of the city of Tacloban in Leyte province. Haiyan killed or left missing close to 8,000 people and displaced as many as four million. &quot;Building more permanent homes is very slow and takes time. Hopefully, by January next year, the pace will pick up,&quot; Mayor Alfred Romualdez, nephew of the Philippines&apos; former first lady, Imelda Marcos, told reporters. He blamed the lack of suitable land where houses which could withstand 250-kph (155-mph) winds could be built but said he hoped the 14,500 homes would be completed by 2017. &quot;There are still 3,000 people in danger zones, many in tents and we want them all transferred to transitional shelters by next month,&quot; Romualdez said. &quot;...One year after typhoon Haiyan, we are back but only about 50 percent,&quot; he said, saying the recovery effort was slowed down by bureaucracy, shortage of manpower and resources and other delays. Construction materials, like galvanized iron sheets, were also scarce, he said, forcing people to use fallen coconut trees to build temporary shelters. Romualdez did not mention graft as a factor in one of Asia&apos;s most corrupt countries. The Philippines came in at 94 out of 175 countries in Transparency International&apos;s corruption perceptions index last year. The Aquino government has a six-year 170 billion pesos ($3.80 billion) master plan to rebuild devastated areas, building about 200,000 homes and providing more sustainable jobs for 2.6 million people who living below the poverty line. (Editing by Nick Macfie)
- Carbon sink – climate change – SOD; urbanisation – cultural services Highly indirect .. CONTESTED
- #16: spelling error: contiguous (not &quot;continguous&quot;) #22: Panic! (remove the explanation mark)#22: good governance needs regulation and taxes global subsidies for fossil fuel exceed that for renewables by a ratio of about 6 to 1. In 2011 these subsidies exceeded 500 billion dollars – about ten times the clean-up costs for Hurricane Sandy, which struck the U.S. prior to its 2012 Federal election.
- Fig. 26.2. This conceptual diagram compares the likely burden of disease from the primary, secondary and tertiary effects of climate change with the time at which the effects are likely to be widely accepted as causally related by the general and even the scientific community. Two major European heatwaves since 2000 (France and Russia) killed over 100,000 people. Both extreme events are likely to have been contributed to by climate change. Secondary effects, such as changes to vector-borne diseases, probably have a lower burden of disease. There has been greater scientific resistance to their reality, but this is fading. Tertiary effects such as the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the conflicts in Sudan and Syria are still regarded as speculative by most people, including most scientists. These events have the potential to cause a burden of disease at least of an order of magnitude higher than the others. Waiting for complete consensus is to wait too long.
- Sharot T, Korn CW, Dolan RJ. How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality. Nature Neuroscience. 2011; 14: 1475-9. Sharot T. The Optimism Bias. New York: Pantheon Books; 2011. Sharot T, Riccardi AM, Raio CM, Phelps EA. Neural mechanisms mediating optimism bias. Nature. 2007; 450: 102-5. http://thesituationist.wordpress.com/2007/10/26/neural-origins-of-optimism/ “This time it’s different” – the life cycle of of hope ... and disappointment Emerging risk - elements A “social vaccine” – or is it fruitless?
- Mossman, K. 2008. Profile of Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, 105, 1783-1785.
- Is &quot;danger&quot; plus &quot;opportunity&quot; equal &quot;crisis&quot; in Chinese?Is the Chinese symbol crisis made up of &quot;danger&quot; and &quot;opportunity&quot; as is often quoted? First of all, the Chinese symbol crisis is not one symbol but two. The symbols for crisis in Chinese are made up of these two words: They are pronounced wei1 ji1. wei means &quot;danger; peril&quot;. And ji means &quot;opportunity; crucial point&quot; So literally wei plus ji equals &quot;danger&quot; plus &quot;oportunity&quot;. However in reality, a crisis is still a dangerous state of affairs - regardless of the language. Crisis wei ji still means &quot;a situation that has reached an extremely difficult or dangerous point&quot;. However, a dangerous situation can become an opportunity if wei ji becomes zhuan3 ji1.Zhuan ji means &quot;turn for the better&quot;. Zhuan means &quot;turn into&quot;. So zhuan ji means &quot;turn into opportunity&quot;. In this sense, the Chinese symbol crisis can mean &quot;opportunity&quot; in a time of &quot;danger&quot;. wei ji is commonly used as in wei1 ji1 gan3 meaning &quot;sense of crisis&quot; and wei1 ji1 si4 fu2 meaning &quot;beset with danger; danger lurking in every direction&quot;.
- An inability to feed livestock and the high price of oats (the preferred food of horses!) led Karl Drais, a German inventor, to create a method of horseless transportation, the laufmaschine. Drais&apos; &quot;running machine&quot; is a prototype for the modern bicycle that lacks pedals and relies on the rider to start off with a trot and then ride once sufficient speed is obtained.
- Figure SPM-12. | Cost trends of selected non-fossil energy technologies (US$2005/kW installed capacity) versus cumulative deployment (cumulative GW installed) Chapter 24 data have been updated with most recent cost trends (2010) available in the literature for PV Si Modules and US onshore wind turbines. Note that the summary illustrates comparative cost trends only and is not suitable for direct economic comparison of different energy technologies due to important differences between the economics of technology components (e.g. PV modules versus total systems installed), cost versus price data, and also differences in load factors across technologies (e.g., nuclear’s electricity output per kW installed is three to four times larger than that of PV or wind turbine systems). Source: Chapter 24 .
- One factor making the challenges more severe is the major participation in the global system of giant nations whose populations have not previously enjoyed the fossil energy abundance that brought Western countries and Japan to positions of affluence. Now they are poised to repeat the West’s energy ‘success’, and on an even greater scale. India alone, which recently suffered a gigantic blackout affecting 300 million people, is planning to bring 455 new coal plants on line. Worldwide more than 1200 plants with a total installed capacity of 1.4 million megawatts are planned [76], much of that in China, where electricity demand is expected to skyrocket. The resultant surge in greenhouse gases will interact with the increasing diversion of grain to livestock, stimulated by the desire for more meat in the diets of Indians, Chinese and others in a growing global middle class.
- global subsidies for fossil fuel exceed that for renewables by a ratio of about 6 to 1. In 2011 these subsidies exceeded 500 billion dollars – about ten times the clean-up costs for Hurricane Sandy, which struck the U.S. prior to its 2012 Federal election.