Global environmental change and health: more than a climate emergency
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This document summarizes Colin Butler's career working on environmental and climate change issues as a medical doctor. It discusses how environmental change affects human health through impacts on energy, heat, water, food, and causes migration and conflict. Climate change worsens existing public health problems and introduces new risks. Urgent global cooperation is needed to transition to renewable energy and more sustainable systems to avoid catastrophic consequences for health and civilization.
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Global environmental change and health: more than a climate emergency
- 1. 1 Global environmental change and health: more than a climate emergency Doctors for the Environment Adelaide 30 July 2019 Hon Prof Colin D Butler National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, Australian National University Health Research Institute, University of Canberra College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide @ColinDavdButler
- 2. These slides are adapted from the talk given on July 30; additional material is here included.
- 3. “communicators must try to understand what people care about, what they value and how they think about climate change and related matters” (Moser and Dilling, 2011).
- 4. Summary: environmental change affects almost everything, because humans rely on environmental resources and compete for them
- 5. this century “will be dominated by a titanic global struggle—economic, political, scientific and military—for resources.” (p37)
- 7. My story Energy Heat Water Food Classifying climate change and health effects Migration and conflict Feedbacks Solutions
- 8. my story
- 9. 1974-7: off the grid (Tasmania) 1980: started medical school (Newcastle, NSW) 1983: civil disobedience Franklin River campaign Tasmania
- 10. 1985: Nigeria, Europe, Nepal and India “electives” 1989: Green independent candidate, Tasmanian state election 1989: co-founded NGOs BODHI and BODHI Australia 1990: DTM&H (London) – meeting with Maurice King
- 13. “Medical professionals, especially those in public health, need to do far more to raise public concern. First, however, we have to educate ourselves. To do nothing is to risk catastrophic global disease for us all.”
- 15. The medical profession must embrace this new challenge and aim to reverse the ecological clock now poised almost at midnight for many of the species and people on this planet. The Lancet
- 16. 2001: co-founding board member DEA 2014: co-founded Health-Earth 2012-4: contributed to health chapter IPCC 2014: edited book “Climate Change and Global Health” published 2014: civil disobedience, Maules Ck coal mine (NSW)
- 17. 2001: co-founding board member DEA 2014: co-founded Health-Earth 2012-4: contributed to health chapter IPCC 2014: edited book “Climate Change and Global Health” published 2014: civil disobedience, Maules Ck coal mine (NSW) https://leard.frontlineaction.org/ipcc-contributor- participates-in-blockade/ 2018: appointed advisor to DEA
- 18. Energy
- 19. https://www.worldenergydata.org/world-energy-supply/ World energy supply by share (2016)
- 23. “more than half of its yearly electricity demand from renewables, mostly wind but a growing amount of large scale and rooftop solar too” https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-has-10gw-wind-and-solar-in-pipeline-as-it-heads-to-100-renewables-65116/ (by 2030 – for electricity) China: wind + solar = 390 GW
- 27. Heat
- 28. (2019)
- 31. Water
- 32. Witze, A. Why extreme rains are gaining strength as the climate warms. Nature 2018, 563, 458-460. (2018) “landslides swept into towns and buildings as sodden ground collapsed. More than 1 million people fled their homes.”
- 33. Witze, A. Why extreme rains are gaining strength as the climate warms. Nature 2018, 563, 458-460. (3 deg warming)
- 35. More runoff .. more organic matter and nutrient losses from soil erosion, farmland and animal operations, urban centers .. overloading of organic matter and nutrients .. harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, fish and shellfish kills. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190723085957.htm
- 37. Witze, A. Why extreme rains are gaining strength as the climate warms. Nature 2018, 563, 458-460.
- 40. Indian water train arrives with desperately needed relief for Chennai https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/12/india/india-chennai-water-crisis-train-intl/index.html?utm_term=link&utm_content=2019 07-12T15%3A10%3A48&utm_source=twCNNi&utm_medium=social 50 wagons 2.5 M litres (total) Daily supply: 525M litres/day Goal: 4 trains/day = 10 M L = 2% current supply
- 41. “Farmers and towns on brink of dry disaster” (29/6/19) “Like trying to farm in the Sahara” (ABC News 17/7/19) https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/farmers- towns-on-brink-of-dry-disaster/news- story/f9c18a6c05fa68476398c456c995c0be?fbclid=IwA R3nx2BzCSN9YEWUtgRuSWwape3jr_pFKgbpT0k1ZifUJY WcEtLV5pWXrBo
- 42. Food
- 44. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/19/extreme-heat-wave-hits-us-farmers-already-suffering-from- flooding.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar After massive flooding in 2011, the Corps had to repair five breaches. So far in 2019, they are dealing with 50. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-reckoning-in-the- heartland-cbsn-originals/
- 45. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1158101/France-news-crisis-grain-farmers-heatwave-stop-harvest More than 500 hectares of land caught fire on Tuesday alone France grain CRISIS: French officials order farmers to stop harvest as fires destroy crop .. FEARS over a French grain shortage rose yesterday as France ordered farmers to stop harvesting as hundreds of hectares caught fire in the heatwave.
- 46. Oil price Oil price Raw data: FAO
- 47. Oil price Oil price Climate change Raw data: FAO
- 49. 49 Irakli Loladze https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/09/13/food- nutrients-carbon-dioxide-000511?lo=ap_a1 Protein Micronutrients (Zn, Fe, others)
- 50. Classifying climate change and health effects
- 52. Direct effects of a rise in temperature (particularly .. heatwaves) may include deaths from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease among the elderly. Indirect effects are secondary, such as changes in vector-borne diseases or crop production, and tertiary, such as the social and economic impacts of environmental refugees and conflict over fresh water supplies. The Lancet
- 53. c 125,000 functioning brick kilns in India, c 10-23 million workers.Heat index, wet bulb temp https://www.antislavery.org/what-we-do/past-projects/india-debt- bondage/?gclid=CjwKCAjw1f_pBRAEEiwApp0JKCksyttttCwqVvaKAuYk_LALJeWkSYraOXIaPaQw 3IbMkMcKjEkPkBoCn1EQAvD_BwE
- 54. c 125,000 functioning brick kilns in India, c 10-23 million workers. https://arielschecklist.com/wbgt-chart/
- 59. 59 (2012)
- 61. 61 PDSI =Palmer Drought Severity Index When a severe drought began in 2006/2007, the agricultural system in the northeastern “breadbasket” region, which typically produced over two- thirds of the country’s crop yields, collapsed In 2008, after the driest winter in Syria’s observed record, wheat production failed and the agricultural share fell to 17% (from average Kelley et al, PNAS 20015 doi: 10.1073/pnas.1421533112.
- 64. internal migration rival groups (including religious) poor governance climate change aquifer depletion high fertility, youth bulges, high unemployment “eco-social” determinismeconomic liberalisation Butler, C.D. Regional overload” as an indicator of profound risk: a plea for the public health community to awaken. In Health in the Anthropocene: Living Well on a Finite Planet, Quilley, S.; Zywert, K., Eds. University of Toronto Press: Toronto, Canada (in press). Syrian war
- 65. “The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’ Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
- 66. “The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’ Hans Joachim Schellnhuber “The difference between 2 and 4 degrees of warming .. is civilisation’’
- 67. 1990 2004 2018 2032 Primary (e.g. heat stress, injuries Secondary e.g. vector- borne diseases, air pollution, allergiesBurden of disease Year concept accepted
- 68. 1990 2004 2018 2032 Primary (e.g. heat stress, injuries Secondary e.g. vector- borne diseases, air pollution, allergiesBurden of disease Tertiary (a systemic multiplier) e.g. famine, conflict, migration Year concept accepted
- 72. CO2 from Arctic circle fires in June 2019 .. larger than all of the CO2 from Arctic circle fires in same month from 2010-18 combined”
- 73. Pistone et al: Radiative Heating of an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters (2019) https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/research-highlight-loss-arctics-reflective-sea-ice-will-advance-global-warming-25-years “Losing the reflective power of Arctic sea ice will lead to warming equivalent to one trillion tons of CO2 and advance the 2ºC threshold by 25 years. Any rational policy would make preventing this a top climate priority for world leaders,” said Ramanathan, a professor of atmospheric and climate sciences at Scripps
- 75. Modelled world economy and environment • Best selling environmental book of all time • Many scenarios modelled from 1900 to 2100 • Most lead to “overshoot and collapse”, including “standard run” Widely believed to forecast collapse by year 2000 • leading to many false claims that it was wrong
- 76. 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 non-renewable resources remaining food per capita services per capita population industrial output per person pollution 1970 2010 LTG study observed data (1900-1970) LTG modelled data (1970-2100) Data provided to author by Dr Graham Turner
- 77. 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 non-renewable resources remaining food per capita services per capita population industrial output per person pollution 1970 2010 LTG study observed data (1900-1970) observed data used by Turner (until 2010) LTG modelled data (1970-2100) Data provided to author by Dr Graham Turner
- 78. 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 non-renewable resources remaining food per capita services per capita population industrial output per person pollution 1970 2010 LTG study observed data (1900-1970) observed data used by Turner (until 2010) LTG modelled data (1970-2100) peak health? Data provided to author by Dr Graham Turner
- 80. REGIONAL
- 81. 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 non-renewable resources remaining food per capita services per capita population industrial output per person pollution 1970 2010 c2030: Following “peak health” the global population declines due to increasing cases of “regional overload”” LTG study observed data (1900-1970) observed data used by Turner (until 2010) LTG modelled data (1970-2100) Data provided to author by Dr Graham Turner
- 82. Steffen et al: Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene PNAS 2018
- 83. Steffen et al: Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene PNAS 2018 “Gaia 2.0”
- 84. Solutions
- 89. Some are scientifically literate yet do little to try to slow climate change THOSE WITH WEALTH AND POWER Many have low scientific literacy and ignore the issue THOSE WITH LITTLE WEALTH AND POWER Consume most fossil fuels, eat substantial quantities of meat, travel most, including by air Generally oppose or are indifferent to policies to improve education & reduce poverty, and to slow population growth in rich and poor countries Oppose policies to slow climate change Reason that at the worst case their wealth will protect them and their descendants, in some cases for generations policy Some support and create lobby groups to influence public opinion to disregard climate change Promote policies for fossil fuel use behaviour CLIMATE CHANGE WORSENS Very few are scientifically literate Contribute comparatively little to climate change but purchase fossil fuels when they can Have almost no capacity, even collectively, to change global climate change policy Often have high fertility, contributing to poverty and persisting vulnerability Are agents in ecosystem transformation, e.g. of forests, fish, corals, for subsistence and as agents of those with wealth and power KEY: Butler, in press: ”Global Health and Global Health Ethics”
- 90. Image ; Prescott, S.L.; Logan, A.C. Larger than life: injecting hope into the planetary health paradigm. Challenges 2018, 9, 13. a “social vaccine”? Social vaccine discussed in Butler et al “Mental health, cognition and the challenge of climate change”, in: Climate Change and Global Health, CABI (2014)
- 91. The young? (great that Greta Thunberg and her increasing number of colleagues and emulators can tell adults they are hypocrites; her (their) youth commands attention [and respect], but obviously the young can’t solve our mess; they need our help)
- 92. Technology? https://www.ecowatch.com/australia-worlds-largest-solar- farm-singapore-2639199712.html
- 95. 0 75 150 225 300 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Score 3 Score 2 Score 1 Papers per year 1.90 1.34 “Index of existential risk” Butler, CD. Climate change, health and existential risks to civilization: a comprehensive review (1989-2013) https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/15/10/2266
- 96. World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency (in press) https://www.mdpi.com/2078-1547/10/1/24