This document provides a summary of a presentation on climate change and global health with a focus on food. The key points are: 1. The presentation discusses the primary, secondary and tertiary health effects of climate change, with examples of each provided. 2. Models project declines in global food production due to climate change, particularly impacting developing regions. Yield plateaus are already being seen for some major crops. 3. Climate change, food insecurity and conflict are interlinked, as food price rises and shortages can act as threats to social stability and drivers of migration or war.

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Prof Colin Butler ARC Future Fellow
Climate change and global health
June 11, 2014, U3A
with a focus on food

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Summary
Climate change in the context of Limits to Growth.
Primary, secondary and tertiary health effects.
The climate – food – conflict nexus.
Bias to optimism: FAO, IPCC
There is hope: we must keep within our trillion tonne
carbon budget, of which we have used just over half.
Civil disobedience and the “sustainability transition”.
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“Peak health”
(?)
President Royal Society 2005-
2010

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150
125
100
75
50
25
Extreme events – i.e. climate change?

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World food price index (deflated) (1961-2014) (data FAO)
First oil crisis
decline in price due to
Green Revolution
oil, speculation,
rice panic
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extreme weather events
price plateau: high energy
price, climate change, yield
limits and other evidence of
limits to growth
Index

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1998 2000 2004 2008 2011
Adapted from Murray & King, Nature. 2012; 481: 433-5.
Apparent production cap
2005: Plateau Oil
Production
(million barrels/day)
Oil price (US$ per
barrel)
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$1 billion a day, from Europe, Nth America
3rd carbon age? (M Klare) risk to
water, catastrophic climate change

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Green Revolution: 3 main grains

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“Yield plateaus are evident: wheat, maize in China perhaps irrigated
maize in the USA., Korea and China for rice” (Ken Cassman)
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Limits to growth

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Mostly biofuels?
in press

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Adapted from FAO: 2010 11
World fisheries production: wild vs farmed
some used for aquaculture, some as fertiliser
year
aquaculture

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Secondary
Tertiary
Primary
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Heat waves (fewer cold
waves) injuries, floods,
fires
secondary
primary
tertiary
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Mentalhealth

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1. Occupational hazards (Third World – “the South”)
2. Emergency workers – heat stress
3. Elderly, poor, other vulnerable:
1. Acute (eg confusion, cardiac or renal failure)
2. Possible delayed effects (eg via falls)
4. Other effects on apparently fit people?
Climate Council
2014

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Night-time
Day-time
‘Heat Island” Effect:
Melbourne, Australia
Heatwave, Jan 2009
From: M Loughnan,
Monash University
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Ambulance attendances: heat-related illnesses
Metropolitan Melbourne heatwave, 2009
Victorian Dept of
Health
Elderly at most risk: vulnerable to
exacerbation of chronic illness?

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1995 2000 2005 2010
EU
Russia
Chicago
despair, economic loss,
exposure to asbestos,
mould
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deaths 70k 50k600

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vector borne and
infectious diseases,
other: eg allergies, air
pollutants from fires
interacting with heat
secondary
primary
tertiary
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Mentalhealth

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3650m
(13,000 feet)
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Malaria in Papua New Guinea
Old location
New location
courtesy Prof Ivo
Mueller:
Institute of Medical
Research, PNG
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Overall reduction,
but control more
difficult in highlands
Malaria: the great recession (Boyd, 1930)
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secondary
primary
tertiary
Food price rises, social turmoil,
famine, conflict, population
displacement, refugees
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Mentalhealth

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Photo-
synthetic
activity
20o C 30o C 40o C
Food Yields: General Relationship
of Temperature and Photosynthesis
0%
100%
e.g.: Field & Lobell. Environ Res Lett, 2007:
Globally averaged estimate: +0.5oC reduces crop yields by 3-5%.
+2oC
+2oC
Plus:
• Flood/storm/fire damage
• Droughts – range, severity
• Pests (climate-sensitive)
• Diseases (ditto)
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Nature, 1994
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Rosenzweig & Parry 1994
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Rosenzweig & Parry 1994
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(Source: Easterling et al, 2007)
Modelled major impacts of climate change on crop and
livestock yields and on forestry production by 2050
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World -0.6 to -0.9
Developed countries +2.7 to +9.0
Developing countries -3.3 to -7.2
Southeast Asia -2.5 to -7.8
South Asia -18.2 to -22.1
Sub-Saharan Africa -3.9 to -7.5
Latin America +5.2 to +12.5
From: Tubiello & Fischer, 2007
Range (% change)
Modelled range of climate change impacts
on global cereal grain production:
Percent change, 1990-to-2080
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Climate change will impair farm production in many
poor countries and regions
Modelled % change in agricultural production due to climate change, 2080
Source: Cline WR, 2007: Global warming and agriculture: Impact estimates by country. Washington, D.C.:
Center for Global Development, Peterson Institute for International Economics (cited in von Braun J (IFPRI), 2007
< -25%
> + 25%
0 to 5%
NA
-15 to -5%
LESS
MORE
- 5 to 0%
5 to 15%
15 to 25%
-25 to -15%
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64
36
20
80
Percentage change in yields to 2050
-50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100
UN Devt Prog, 2009
CLIMATE CHANGE to 2050: MODELLED CHANGES IN
CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS
Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst
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(2011) Nature, 476, 17.
Link between Indian ocean temperatures, anthropogenic climate
change and famine in N.E. Africa

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IPCC 2014
Agriculture chapter
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World food price index (deflated) (1961-2014) (data FAO)
First oil crisis
decline in price due to
Green Revolution
oil, speculation,
rice panic
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extreme events
price plateau: high energy
price, climate change, yield
limits and other evidence of
limits to growth

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IPCC 2014
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Doesn’t distinguish between scale of agric’l events; no
hint of Limits to Growth

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IPCC 2014
Yield impact of climate trend % per decade
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IPCC 2014
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IPCC 2014
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IPCC 2014

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Climate change
effect
Modelled? Direction Timing
temperature yes varies 1950 on
rainfall partially varies 1990 on
irrigation Partially generally
harmful
1990 on
Carbon
fertilization
effect
Yes (earlier
studies
tend more
optimistic)
beneficial 1950 on
Butler,
2010
Food and climate models
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effect Modelled? Direction Timing
rainfall intensity
and distribution
no varies 2000 on
irrigation partially generally
harmful
1990 on
Glacial melting no harmful 2050 on
CFE on pests no harmful uncertain
CFE & cassava no harmful future
Extreme weather
events
no gen harmful increasing
Soil quality no gen harmful 2050 on
Sea level rise no harmful 2050 on
Monsoon
changes
no harmful uncertain
Gulf stream
change
no harmful 2100 on
Butler,
2010 40

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Fischer et al, 2001 (IIASA)
2080: rain-fed cereal production
ECHAM4 model of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology
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A risky tradeoff?
1. Possible temporal mismatch
2. “Effective” demand needed for
investment
3. Migration as adaptation limited by state
boundaries
4. Excessively optimistic soil and other
assumptions? Or too pessimistic?
5. Better penetration of Green Revolution
in Africa may be protective.
Butler, 2003 42

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pp 1693–1733
“Climate change is the biggest global
health threat of the 21st century”
but why?
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“The dangerous impacts of
climate change can only be
discussed in terms of
nonlinear behavior.’’
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Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
“The difference between 2 and
4 degrees of warming ..
is civilisation’’

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Water
scarcity
Regions afflicted by problems
due to environmental stresses:
• population pressure
• water shortage
• climate change affecting crops
• sea level rise
• pre-existing hunger
• armed conflict, current/recent
From UK
Ministry of
Defence
[May RM, 2007 Lowy
Institute Lecture]
Climate Change: Multiplier of
Conflicts and Regional Tensions
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Lelieveld et al, 2012,
Climatic Change
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Lelieveld et al, 2012, Climatic Change 47

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Lelieveld et al, 2012, Climatic Change 48

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“we all joined the revolution. Right away.”
Was this about the drought? “Of course,” she said, “the drought
and unemployment were important in pushing people toward
revolution.”
Thomas Friedman, NYT, May 20, 2013

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Syria, c 2013
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Climate change will 'lead to battles for food',
says head of World Bank (April 2014)
Jim Yong Kim urges campaigners and scientists
to work together to form a coherent plan in the
fight against climate change
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very dangerous
catastrophic
IPCC 2013

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me
my nephew
a baby
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Burden of
Disease
(proportion)
Year widely accepted
now 2050?
PRIMARY (eg heat, injury,
productivity)
SECONDARY (eg
vector-borne diseases,
air pollution, allergies)
TERTIARY: (a
“systemic multiplier”)
famine, conflict, large-
scale migration,
economic collapse
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what about adaptation?
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A mirage that threatens to trap us in dry
sand?

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Adaptation: dreams vs reality
Declared
• dream crops
• dream co-operation
• dream geoengineering
• dream technology
Revealed
• PR campaigns
• militarisation
• fortress world
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cyclone shelter, Bangladesh dyke, Netherlands
currently acceptable faces of adaptation
unwanted person camp,
Australia
Armed border fence,
India - Bangladesh
or a fortress world?
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http://www.abc.net.au
/tv/changeyourmind/

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Peabody Energy: “Coal Can Help Meet Millennium
Goals (Burson-Marsteller)
Mandela: overcoming poverty "is not a task of charity, it is
an act of justice".
Mandela – in favour of economic boycotts over apartheid
AND big carbon

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“Exxon Mobil's response to climate change
is consummate arrogance”
Bill McKibben, 2014
Unprecedented wildfires are burning in the American west
What does big oil have to say about climate change?
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his
salary depends on his not understanding it.” Upton Sinclair

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Adaptation (to peak oil) obvious
benefits to air, health; climate
mitigation – opposed by big
carbon

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Kenneth Boulding (1910-93)
The Economics of Spaceship Earth
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“the only person who believes in
perpetual economic growth is either a
madman or an economist”
or in the current parliament!

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Reduce by
9% per yr
Reduce by
3.7% per yr
Reduce by
5.3% per yr
Peak year(s):
2011
2015
2020
Year
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2009
Emissions paths: to keep inside (50% chance) +2oC ‘guardrail’
Must constrain post-1750 cumulative emissions to 1 trillion tonnes C
[Note: Total emissions to date = ~0.55 trillion tC. Current emissions = ~0.10 trillion tC/decade]
10
8
6
4
2
0
Global emissions:
Gt of C and CO2 / yr
Other 50% probabili
scenarios:
1.5 trillion tC ~ 2.6oC
2.0 trillion tC ~ 3.2oC
Allen et al, Nature, 2009
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Joining the dots: creative destruction,
stranded assets and dysfunctional
lock-ins; technological and social
“canal mania”
“creative
destruction”
(Schumpeter’s
gale)
“coal
mania”
“railway
mania”
Eroding the social license
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“free-market advocates seem to experience a peculiar
loss of faith whenever the subject of the environment
comes up” Paul Krugman, 2014 (Nobel Laureate economics)
Subsidies (IMF) (2011)
Fossil fuel $480 billion (0.7% global GDP; 2% govt
revenues)
Renewable energy: $88 billion ratio: >5:1
Subsidies (IMF) (2011)
Fossil fuel $2 trillion (factoring in externalities)
Renewable energy: $88 billion; ratio: >20:1
67Hurricane Sandy - $50 billion

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Why We’re in a New
Gilded Age
Paul Krugman
US political class actively
working to restore
patrimonial capitalism
Capital in the
Twenty-First Century
Thomas Piketty
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Gini
co-efficient (%)
China
US
world
Global Gini data (US$) Butler, 2002
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Ingrained inequality
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Peters’ Projection

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Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Solar (1975-2007
2007-10)
NUCLEAR
US$/kwH
(2005
dollars)
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urgent
Inequality, dirty energy, limits to growth & climate change are core
interlinked public health issues
sustainability solutions will deliver many co-benefits
need radically new ways of thinking and doing
James Hanson
arrested again
“society .. like a sorcerer no longer able to control the powers of
the nether world whom he has called up by his spells” (Marx, 1848)

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colin.butler@canberra.edu.au
http://www.canberra.edu.au/faculties/health/courses/public-
health/staff-profiles/butler-colin
www.bodhi.net.au
https://twitter.com/ColinDavdButler
http://globalchangemusings.blogspot.com.au/
http://www.cabi.org/bookshop/book/9781780642659
Healthy People, Places and Planet: Reflections based on Tony McMichael’s four decades of
contribution to epidemiological understanding (ANU E-Press) (co-eds Jane Dixon, Tony Capon)

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Selected publications:
Edited books
Butler C.D., editor. Climate Change and Global Health CABI, Wallingford, UK: CABI; 2014, 315 pages.
Butler C.D. Dixon J., Capon A.G. Healthy People, Places and Planet: Reflections based on AJ (Tony) McMichael’s four decades of contribution
to epidemiological understanding, ANU e-press, Canberra, 2015
WHO Technical Reports
McMichael A.J., Zhou Z-N., Blignaut J., Bradshaw C., Butler C.D. (editor) Gillespie S., Guhl F., Grace D., Sulaiman S.M., Trostle J.A., Utzinger
J., Wilcox B.A., Willingham III L., Yang G-J. (2013) Research Priorities for the Environment, Agriculture and Infectious Diseases of Poverty.
First report of the World Health Organisation/Special Program on Tropical Diseases Research Thematic Reference Group IV. Technical Report
976
Articles
Bowles D, Friel S, Butler CD. (2013) Climate change and health in Earth’s future. Earth’s Future 2:60-67
Butler CD. (2012) Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world Infectious Diseases Poverty 1:5
McMichael A.J. and Butler C.D. (2011) Promoting global population health while constraining the environmental footprint. Ann Rev Public
Health 32: 179-197.
Butler C.D. (2010) Climate change, crop yields and the future SCN News 38 18-25.
Butler C.D. (2010) Lightening our carbon footprint: economics, norms and doctors Med J Australia 192:485-486.
Butler C.D., Harley D. (2010) Primary, secondary and tertiary effects of the eco-climate crisis: the medical response Postgrad Med J 86:230-
234
Butler C.D. (2009) Food Security in the Asia-Pacific: Malthus, limits and environmental challenges Asia Pacific J Clinical Nutrition 18(4) 577-
584.
Butler C.D. (2009) Food Security in the Asia-Pacific: climate change, phosphorus, ozone and other environmental challenges Asia Pacific J
Clinical Nutrition 18(4) 590-597.
Bryant L, Carver L, Butler C.D., Anage A. (2009) Climate change and family planning: least developed countries define the agenda. Bull World
Health Organisation 87: 852-857.
Butler C.D. (2005): Peering into the fog: ecologic change, human affairs and the future EcoHealth 2: 17-21.
Butler C.D. (2004): Human carrying capacity and human health. Public Library of Science Medicine 1(3) e55: 192-194.
McMichael A.J., Butler C.D., Folke C: (2003): New visions for addressing sustainability, Science 302: 1919-1920.
Butler C.D. (2000): Inequality, global change and the sustainability of civilisation Global Change Human Health 1(2): 156-172.
Butler C.D. (1997): The consumption bomb Medicine, Conflict Survival 13: 209-218.
Butler C.D. (1994): Overpopulation, overconsumption and economics Lancet 343: 582-584.