The document discusses the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in decision making for the Space Shuttle program. It provides background on the development of the Shuttle PRA since 1987. Key information for management includes clearly presenting the PRA analysis and assumptions, limitations, and estimates of uncertainty to support risk-informed decisions.
Human Exploration Framework Team PresentationBill Duncan
Summary of Phase I
- Developed an investment portfolio that strikes a balance of new developments, technology, and operational programs with an eye towards a new way of exploring.
- Created a point of departure DRM that is flexible and can evolve over time to support multiple destinations with the identified systems.
- Identified a minimum subset of elements needed to conduct earlier beyond LEO missions.
- Infused key technology developments
that should begin in earnest and identified gaps which should help inform additional technology prioritization over and above the NEO focused DRM.
- Costed the DRM using traditional costing methodologies.
- Determined alternative development options are required to address the cost and schedule shortfalls."
Human Exploration Framework Team PresentationBill Duncan
Summary of Phase I
- Developed an investment portfolio that strikes a balance of new developments, technology, and operational programs with an eye towards a new way of exploring.
- Created a point of departure DRM that is flexible and can evolve over time to support multiple destinations with the identified systems.
- Identified a minimum subset of elements needed to conduct earlier beyond LEO missions.
- Infused key technology developments
that should begin in earnest and identified gaps which should help inform additional technology prioritization over and above the NEO focused DRM.
- Costed the DRM using traditional costing methodologies.
- Determined alternative development options are required to address the cost and schedule shortfalls."
Presentation by Jim Reuter (Ares Vehicle Integration Manager, NASA) at the Von Braun Memorial Symposium in Huntsville, Alabama, 21 October 2008.
<a href="http://astronautical.org/vonbraun/vonbraun-2008/session1">http://astronautical.org/vonbraun/vonbraun-2008/session1</a>
The FMEA relates to a very broad spectrum on how effective this tool can be utilized as solver aid in dealing with the histories/pattern of failure in the product.
And how well can it be hierarchically deal with analysis the root cause of the problem.
This methodology is widely adopted in almost all manufacturing branch industries, due to its efficiency is tracking down all the possibilities occurrence in failure with the severity, occurrence, etc and other parameters to define the intensity of the failure being occurred.
To understand the tools usage a bit further, I have enumerated a case study via a example in this slides.
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
The Art of the Pitch: WordPress Relationships and SalesLaura Byrne
Clients don’t know what they don’t know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
All these questions and more will be explored as we talk about matching clients’ needs with what your agency offers without pulling teeth or pulling your hair out. Practical tips, and strategies for successful relationship building that leads to closing the deal.
PHP Frameworks: I want to break free (IPC Berlin 2024)Ralf Eggert
In this presentation, we examine the challenges and limitations of relying too heavily on PHP frameworks in web development. We discuss the history of PHP and its frameworks to understand how this dependence has evolved. The focus will be on providing concrete tips and strategies to reduce reliance on these frameworks, based on real-world examples and practical considerations. The goal is to equip developers with the skills and knowledge to create more flexible and future-proof web applications. We'll explore the importance of maintaining autonomy in a rapidly changing tech landscape and how to make informed decisions in PHP development.
This talk is aimed at encouraging a more independent approach to using PHP frameworks, moving towards a more flexible and future-proof approach to PHP development.
Key Trends Shaping the Future of Infrastructure.pdfCheryl Hung
Keynote at DIGIT West Expo, Glasgow on 29 May 2024.
Cheryl Hung, ochery.com
Sr Director, Infrastructure Ecosystem, Arm.
The key trends across hardware, cloud and open-source; exploring how these areas are likely to mature and develop over the short and long-term, and then considering how organisations can position themselves to adapt and thrive.
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...UiPathCommunity
💥 Speed, accuracy, and scaling – discover the superpowers of GenAI in action with UiPath Document Understanding and Communications Mining™:
See how to accelerate model training and optimize model performance with active learning
Learn about the latest enhancements to out-of-the-box document processing – with little to no training required
Get an exclusive demo of the new family of UiPath LLMs – GenAI models specialized for processing different types of documents and messages
This is a hands-on session specifically designed for automation developers and AI enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge in leveraging the latest intelligent document processing capabilities offered by UiPath.
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JMeter webinar - integration with InfluxDB and GrafanaRTTS
Watch this recorded webinar about real-time monitoring of application performance. See how to integrate Apache JMeter, the open-source leader in performance testing, with InfluxDB, the open-source time-series database, and Grafana, the open-source analytics and visualization application.
In this webinar, we will review the benefits of leveraging InfluxDB and Grafana when executing load tests and demonstrate how these tools are used to visualize performance metrics.
Length: 30 minutes
Session Overview
-------------------------------------------
During this webinar, we will cover the following topics while demonstrating the integrations of JMeter, InfluxDB and Grafana:
- What out-of-the-box solutions are available for real-time monitoring JMeter tests?
- What are the benefits of integrating InfluxDB and Grafana into the load testing stack?
- Which features are provided by Grafana?
- Demonstration of InfluxDB and Grafana using a practice web application
To view the webinar recording, go to:
https://www.rttsweb.com/jmeter-integration-webinar
Search and Society: Reimagining Information Access for Radical FuturesBhaskar Mitra
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Let's dive deeper into the world of ODC! Ricardo Alves (OutSystems) will join us to tell all about the new Data Fabric. After that, Sezen de Bruijn (OutSystems) will get into the details on how to best design a sturdy architecture within ODC.
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
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Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
- For advanced developers: master the skills to efficiently apply PowSyBl functionalities to your real-world scenarios.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 3DianaGray10
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Topics covered:
UI automation Introduction,
UI automation Sample
Desktop automation flow
Pradeep Chinnala, Senior Consultant Automation Developer @WonderBotz and UiPath MVP
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
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A presentation about the usage and availability of Varnish on Kubernetes. This talk explores the capabilities of Varnish caching and shows how to use the Varnish Helm chart to deploy it to Kubernetes.
This presentation was delivered at K8SUG Singapore. See https://feryn.eu/presentations/accelerate-your-kubernetes-clusters-with-varnish-caching-k8sug-singapore-28-2024 for more details.
To Graph or Not to Graph Knowledge Graph Architectures and LLMs
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1. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
USE OF PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT
(PRA) IN THE SHUTTLE DECISION MAKING
PROCESS
Roger L. Boyer Teri L. Hamlin
Analysis Branch Chief Shuttle PRA Lead
NASA Johnson Space Center
Safety & Mission Assurance
Presented at
PM Challenge
February 9 ‐ 10, 2011
Long Beach, CA
1
2. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
INTRODUCTION
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive,
structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and
analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes
that seeks answers to three basic questions:
What kinds of events or scenarios can occur (i.e., what
can go wrong)?
What are the likelihoods and associated uncertainties of
the events or scenarios?
What consequences could result from these events or
scenarios (e.g., Loss of Crew and Loss of Mission)?
2
3. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
BACKGROUND
• The Space Shuttle Program (SSP) initiated the
development of a Shuttle Probabilistic Risk
Assessment (SPRA) in March 2001. Prior to that
there were a number of PRA estimates for the
Shuttle, but none were sponsored by the SSP.
– Chart on next page summarizes the Shuttle PRA evolution.
• The “consequence” or metric of concern selected for
the SPRA is Loss of Crew and/or Vehicle (LOCV).
• The risk contributors include hardware failures,
external events, crew errors, software failures, and
phenomenological events.
3
4. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
SHUTTLE PRA EVOLUTION
• The advent of established NASA requirements, standards, and tools ‐ as well
as the development of a strong Shuttle program PRA team have resulted in
significant recent progress
• Iteration 3.2 is the most comprehensive and used Shuttle PRA to date
STS-128 STS-131
Examples of SPRA uses: SLEP Risk HST Manifest Flight Flight
Trades Decision Rationale Rationale
Mean Probability of LOCV
1:70 1:55 1:73 1:131 1:234 1:78 1:61 1:67 1:77 1:81 1:85 1:89
1987 1988 1993 1995 1998 2003 2004/2005 2005 2006/2007 2008 2009 2010
Proof of First Update of the First major Unpublished Integrated Integrated Integrated Updated Updated Updated Updated
concept study somewhat Galileo study integrated analysis using PRA with all PRA with all PRA with all SPRA SPRA SPRA SPRA
for applying integrated results to (multi phase) QRAS. No elements, 18 elements, 18 elements, 18 iteration 2.1 iteration 2.2 iteration 3.0 iteration 3.1
PRA to Space PRA reflect then shuttle PRA. integration of Orbiter Orbiter Orbiter with with Abort with with updated
Shuttle. conducted on current test Done with elements. Systems, Systems, Systems, Inspection modeling, corrected MMOD,
Scope was the Space and input from Limited to MMOD and MMOD and MMOD and with Repair Rendezvous APU Ascent
limited to Shuttle. Done operational prime three Orbiter human human human and Crew and Docking. Hydrazine Debris,
APUs for in support of base of the contractors. systems and actions actions actions Rescue. Updated Leak Orbiter Flight
Orbiter and Galileo shuttle. the included. included. included. Updated Functional Probabilities Software,
SRB Mission. (Ascent Only) Propulsion Presented to Peer Peer MMOD and Data, MMOD Incorporated
(Ascent Only). elements Peer review reviewed. reviewed. Ascent Debris and Ascent Orbiter
Team. Updated Pre‐ Modeling Debris Review
valve Summit
modeling Comments
Galileo Phase 1 Shuttle PRA Shuttle PRA SPRAT PRA SPRAT PRA SPRAT PRA SPRAT PRA SPRAT PRA SPRAT PRA SPRAT PRA
1988 1993 1995 1998 Iteration 1.5 Iteration 2.0 Iteration 2.1 Iteration 2.2 Iteration 3.0 Iteration 3.1 Iteration 3.2
2003 2004/2005 2005 2006/2007 2008 2009 2010
4
5. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
BACKGROUND
• The purpose of the SPRA is to provide a useful risk
management tool for the SSP to identify strengths
and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and
operation.
– SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions,
but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness
Reviews (FRR) and near real‐time flight decisions.
5
6. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
LEVELS OF ASSESSMENT
• Full Scope SPRA
– Establishes baseline risk associated with the overall
mission by mission phase, as well as by vehicle elements
and subsystems
– Documented end states, assumptions, approach, and risk
drivers
• Focused PRA
– Answers specific question that doesn’t require full model,
but benefits from it
• Insights
– Knowing relative risk contributors provides input for
decisions without comprehensive PRA
6
7. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
KEY INFORMATION FOR MANAGEMENT
• Clear presentation of analysis
– if the audience doesn’t understand the analysis, the information will
not be used
– Difficult because many different ways people process information
• Applicable assumptions and limitations
– PRA is only as good as the assumptions that go into the analysis, thus
important to share for managers to understand the basis of the results
– Limitations should be understood, so that the results are not misused
• Estimates of uncertainty
– state of knowledge about the system being modeled (e.g. the real
capability of the system to successfully respond to an event)
– randomness of the probabilistic parameters (e.g. the uncertainty in
estimating a failure probability of an event)
7
8. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
EXAMPLES
8
9. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
Shuttle Service Life Extension Program (SLEP)
Assessed the
risk of each
proposed
upgrade and
compared
relative
changes in risk
9
10. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
Shuttle Service Life Extension Program (SLEP)
Showed that
~70% of
calculated risk
due to crew
error occurs
during entry,
descent, and
landing
10
11. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
Engine Cutoff (ECO) Sensors
Assessed the risk of
changing the Launch
Commit Criteria (LCC)
for these ECO sensors
from requiring four of
four sensors to only
requiring three of four
sensors.
Pointed out the need to
better understand the
other side of the risk
trade when a launch is
scrubbed due to ECO
sensor failures, i.e.,
scrub turnaround risk.
11
12. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
Probability of LH2 Low Level Cutoff (STS‐122)
Shuttle Program
Manager requested
and used
Model used
historical data in a
simulation model
Shuttle Program
Manager could see
impact of adding
Ascent Performance
Margin (APM) on
risk
12
13. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
Solid Rocket Booster Power Bus Isolation Supply Analysis
Emphasized the need to
implement a design change that
would eliminate the failure in
future flights
13
14. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
Main Propulsion Flow Control Valve (FCV)
Shuttle Program used these risk estimates as
supporting flight rationale for STS‐119, combined
with FCV inspection and impact testing
14
15. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Manifest Decision
Analysis
compared HST
risk with and
without crew
rescue to other
Shuttle missions
in order to help
NASA
Administrator
decide whether
or not the HST
mission was an
acceptable risk
15
16. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Manifest Decision (2)
Risk reduction
with crew rescue
was compared to
risk reductions
from implemented
Shuttle upgrades
16
17. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
Probability of Launch on Need
Assisted the Shuttle
Program Manager with
making an informed
decision not to release the
HST rescue vehicle
17
18. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
STS‐128 Power Controller Assembly Risk Presented at L‐2
Analysis was used
to help Shuttle
Managers decide
that PCA risk was
acceptable for flight
Analysis showed
that it was much
more likely to have
a broken contactor
on the ground
Important to
inform
managers of
the analysis
assumptions
18
19. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
STS-131 Helium Isolation Valve Risk
Analysis was
used to support
STS‐131 flight
rationale at the
HQ Flight
Readiness
Review
19
20. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
Right RCS Helium System Reliability
Analysis results
combined with
graphical display
to help
communicate risk
to Management
at HQ Flight
Readiness Review
20
21. SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Space Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance Office
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
SUMMARY
• Showed various ways of communicating and using
PRA findings in the Shuttle Program
• Stated that it is important to provide management:
– Clear presentation of analysis
– Applicable assumptions and limitations
– Estimates of uncertainty
• Maintain consistency and accuracy across the
program to make it relevant
• Used various levels of PRA to answer the mail
• The Shuttle Program has benefited from using PRA
and others can too
21