Biodiversity and the next generation Green Revolution
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M. Ann Tutwiler, Director General of Bioversity International, gave this presentation on 8 August as part of Expo Milano 2015, Milano Università degli Studi di Milano Bioversity International's research strategy: http://bit.ly/1gszF9W
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Biodiversity and the next generation Green Revolution
- 1. Biodiversity and the next generation Green Revolution M. Ann Tutwiler, Director General, Bioversity International Global Food Security Challenges , Milano Università degli Studi di Milano 7-8 August 2015
- 2. New challenge: Childhood stunting UNICEF 2009
- 3. New challenge: Climate change reducing crop yields Average decline in yields for eight major crops across Africa and South Asia by 2050 (Source IPCC, 2014)
- 4. New challenge: Degraded lands
- 5. Tomorrow’s formula for food production • what we produce and consume • how we produce and • where we produce – all under changing climatic conditions. Women harvesting nuts in Bangladesh. Credit: Md. Akhlas Uddin
- 6. Agricultural & tree biodiversity is an important part of the solution • Provides diverse nutrient content and dietary diversity through many available species and varieties within a species. • Provides more crop options to buffer against extreme climactic events. • Allows farmers to limit the spread of pests & diseases. • Sustains soil health, food & habitat for important pollinators and natural pest predators. • Provides variability to adapt to different edaphic conditions. • Source of genetic material vital for future generations. A diverse farming system in Burundi. Credit: Bioversity International/P.Lepoint
- 7. Stunting decreases with food system diversity 0 20 40 60 −2 0 2 Shannon−Weaver %Stunted 0 5 10 15 20 −2 Shannon−Weaver %Wasted 40 Coefficient -3.10*** Adj R2 0.707 %stuntingamongchildren<5 Supply Diversity (Shannon diversity) Remans et al. GFS 2014; also adapted by SUN 2014 Ethiopia • Controlling for # socio- economic factors including GNI, trade, infrastructure,.. • size of bullet = GNI per capita • Low diet diversity in Ethiopia is also well reported on at individual and household level (e.g. Headey 2014, Hirvonen et al. 2014) Kenya Vietnam Cambodia Bangladesh Senegal Malaysia WHATWEPRODUCE
- 8. Diversity on farms provides diversity of nutrients Declerck et al 2011 FNB Photo: Sorghum , Kenya : Credit: Bioversity/Yusuf Wachira WHATWEPRODUCE
- 9. Diversity achieves multiple functions Monoculture Diversified cropping systems Photo credit: University of British Colombia/Sean Smukler HOWWEPRODUCE
- 10. In marginal areas, tailored solutions are required •18.4% of farmers varieties are superior to the best improved variety for maturity •31.4% of farmers’ varieties are superior than the best improved variety •A yield advantage of 61% obtained from the best landrace over the best improved variety (Robe) and 23.9% of the farmers’ varieties were showing a yield advantage HOWWEPRODUCE Landraces perform better than improved varieties of Durum wheat in Ethiopia
- 11. In marginal areas, integrated approaches are required Land use mapping – dry season WHEREWEPRODUCE Barotse floodplain, Zambia
- 12. 4. Farmers test and report back by mobile phone 2. Each farmer gets a different combination of varieties 3. Environmental data (GPS, sensors) to assess adaptation 1. A broad set of varieties is evaluated 6. Detect demand for new varieties and traits 5. Farmers receive tailored variety recommendations and can order seeds New business model needed: more consumers, producer and location specific; more co-creation
- 13. Bioversity International’s approach – objectives to impact Consume Produce Plant Safeguard IMPACT Improved nutrition, incomes and other livelihood benefits Productive and Resilient Farms, Forests and Landscapes Effective Genetic Resource Conservation and Use Agricultural biodiversity nourishes people and sustains the planet Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems
- 14. Agricultural biodiversity nourishes people and sustains the planet Photo credit: LI-BIRD/A.Subedi
Editor's Notes
- Timely: 90th birthday of Professor Swaminathan yesterday To increase food supplies by 60% by 2050—and that the challenge before us is as compelling as the challenge we faced in 1962, at the start of the Green Revolution. We can’t simply repeat the arithmetic formulas that gave us the first Green Revolution—simply increasing yields and producing more food and more calories is no longer sufficient. We now have to solve a more complexequation: it matters both how we produce more food and where we produce it as well as how we market and consume it—all under changing climatic conditions.
- (- Linked to poverty) 195 million children are stunted estimated 195 million children under age 5 in developing countries suffer from stunting, a consequence of chronic nutritional deprivation that begins in the period before birth if the mother is undernourished. Of these, more than 90 per cent are in Asia and Africa. Taken from UNICEF 2009 http://www.unicef.org/eapro/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf
- IPCC predicts that climate change will reduce agricultural production by 2% every decade while demand will increase by 14% every decade until 2050 Notes from original slide: Impact of climate change on crop yields Facts: Changes in precipitation are difficult to predict: downward trends in some part of the country and upwards in others with increased inter-annual variability. Projected rainfall change over sub-Saharan Africa in the mid- and late 21st century is uncertain. In regions of high or complex topography ((such as the Ethiopian Highlands)), downscaled projections indicate likely increases in rainfall and extreme rainfall by the end of the 21st century. ((Climate model projections under the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios over Ethiopia show warming in all four seasons across the country, which may cause a higher frequency of heat waves as well as higher rates of evaporation (Conway and Schipper, 2011))) (- Negative impact largely in regions where there is poverty)
- - Example - Low status – read – medium to strong degradation. - Productive land is already being used intensively. Green Revolution was successful largely on good and irrigated lands. (- Where there is poverty, there is land degradation.) Degraded lands, from moderate to highly degraded, account for over 30% of the world’s land. FAO (2011) The State of the World’s Land and Water resources for Food and Agriculture (SOLAW) – Managing systems at risk. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and Earthscan/ Routledge 285 p
- What is the ‘new’ that we face in comparison to the 60s, i.e. NEW = beyond-calories, climate change, degradation The calculated formulas that gave us the Green Revolution - increasing yields and producing more food and more calories through a limited set of crops are no longer sufficient. In order to address food security around the world, today’s formula requires us to look at food production differently - what we produce, how we produce more food and where we produce, as well as how we market and consume it—all under changing climatic conditions and use of less-than-prime lands. Out of 7,000 plants used for agriculture throughout history, just three crops – rice, wheat and maize – provide more than 50% of the world’s plant-derived calories. Only 12 crops and 5 animal species provide 75% of the world’s energy intake. (When a species or the diversity within a species is lost, we also lose genes that are important for improving crops and promoting their resistance to pests and diseases or to climate change.)
- This is relevant when looking at the interconnectivity of Nutrition, crop production, conservation, and how this is impacted by climate change Edaphic conditions - Relating to soil, especially as it affects living organisms. Edaphic characteristics include such factors as water content, acidity, aeration, and the availability of nutrients. Influenced by factors inherent in the soil rather than by climatic factors. This links back to the what how and where we produce.
- Correlation between increased biodiversity and decrease in stunting. Showing that as diversity in national food supplies increases, % stunting decreases (while controlling for several other socio-economic factors) e.g. Ethiopia – Low diversity; high levels of stunting. Genetic diversity, if approached wisely, can also tackle the issue of malnutrition through nutritional diversity. Today, over twice as many people suffer from micronutrient deficiencies as from hunger, with the number of overweight adults in developing countries tripled between 1980 and 2008.
- - Zooming in at the farm level: 30 farms in Western Kenya, edible plant diversity contributing to a diversity of nutritional needs. Source: Declerck et al - http://www.millenniumvillages.org/uploads/ReportPaper/2011-DeClerck_Ecological-approaches-to-nutrition-FNB.pdf Agricultural biodiversity of 30 farms of a typical western Kenya village. Edible plant diversity was relatively high in farm fields, with an average of 14 edible plants, ranging between 5 and 22 species per field. Here we classify the edible species according to their contents of seven important nutrients: protein, carbohydrate, vitamin A, vitamin C, iron, zinc, and folate, identifying distinct clusters of species high in (A) protein (beans, peanuts, and amaranthus), (B) carbohydrate (sugar, sorghum, and corn), and (C) vitamin A (sweet potato and chili pepper)
- If you have monoculture approach you only address one specific nutritional aspect. Diversified at cropping systems allows framers and land managers to address multiple functions
- - The sample included 373 farmers varieties and 27 improved varieties. - Significance column indicate the significance based on GLM analysis between the improved varieties group and farmers varieties. For these three traits the difference found are all highly significant. - Biomass is important because it is used as animal fodder and sometimes animals are more important than the grain for farmers’ livelihood. - Units are days and t/ha for both Grain Yield and Biomass Yield .
- Nutrition-Sensitive Landscapes: An integrated approach in Barotse, Zambia - Farm Design model -> agroecology and nutrition (Trini/Natalia) In the dry season, this access changes Malnutrition high and ecosystems degraded – e.g. fisheries Bringing together disciplines to find solutions to improve nutrition and other ecosystem services We need to take into consideration seasonality ie. Wet lands (not pictured) Access to different foods – provides multiple solutions labor deficiency, inappropriate task timing (e.g. planting, weeding and harvesting dates), bare soil exposure to the first torrential rains of the season lack of seeds adapted to local conditions and their availability (timing is an issue as well) Crop opportunities with drought/flood cycle Flood cycle determines crop suitability by location Traditional knowledge and agroecologies of land use Social condition determines labour availability Seeds adapted to societal capabilities Household condition determines food security needs Seeds that provide societal needs
- How do we get this diversity to the farmers? - A rapid approach to identify crop varieties, adapted to changing climates and markets, uses existing diversity - Can be customized to local and marginal conditions around the world, engages farming communities - Value for money – scaling up and out Climate Analogues Addressing material in genebanks (landraces, improved variety) Participation ------------------- Notes: Seeds for Needs Through our ‘Seeds for Needs’ initiative, we have been working in Ethiopia since 2009 to bring farmers high-quality and diverse seeds that meet their needs. Example of Innovation – genebanks and using them to put to work to address climate change to use exisitng instrastructure. The farmers we work with are directly involved in evaluating and selecting varieties of barley and durum wheat (most of which are traditional landraces conserved in Ethiopia’s national genebank), providing valuable feedback on their preferred traits to scientists. Combining scientific data with the experiences and knowledge of farmers, is a key element of this initiative. Role of Crowdsourcing, Information and Communication technologies. Results Our research found that more than 20% of the traditional Ethiopian landraces performed better than commercial varieties bred specifically for drought resistance. One variety yielded 61% better than the best commercial variety – an important discovery for food security in the country. Thanks to our work with partners, from 2010 to 2013 varietal diversity increased by 23% across the initiative’s sites and more than half are still sharing these varieties within their seed networks. As a result, we now work with over 2000 farmers in the country who are planting better material in their farms, an achievement that would have taken far longer through a formal plant breeding programme. In 2014, we set up a community seedbank in Amhara region with the Ethiopian Biodiversity Institute, to provide a reliable source of good-quality seeds to farmers in the area.
- Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems (Short: Healthy Diets) A1. Rural To Urban Agri-Food Value Chains A2. Local Agri-Food Systems Productive and Resilient Farms, Forests and Landscapes (Short: Farms-Forests-Landscapes) B1. Ecological Intensification and Diversification B2. Landscape Restoration and Management Effective Genetic Resources Conservation and Use (Short: Genetic Resources) C1. Strategies, Management and Trait Identification C2. Information Services and Seed Supplies C3. Policies, Institutions, and Monitoring
- Final thoughts: A view of moving from the Green Revolution to the next generation: While different to the 60s as explained, at the same time, four critical elements still need to come together, i.e. global/national imperative; use of policy levers; inclusion of market forces; and new technologies We will need to look at new institutional frameworks and equitable distribution of benefits at local, national and global levels to achieve the Next Green Revolution. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) will be one essential element in addressing these issues. We will need to specifically look into: trade-offs amongst interventions/policies Cost benefit analyses Impact of subsidies Scaling to achieve impact Broader policy environment Long tail business model