The document provides an introduction to four forecasting methods: naive, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, and linear trend. It defines each method and provides examples of how to calculate forecasts using each technique. The naive method simply repeats the most recent actual value as the forecast. The weighted moving average and exponential smoothing methods incorporate past values to smooth out fluctuations. Linear trend modeling identifies a mathematical relationship between demand and time to forecast future demand based on a trend line.
Moving avg & method of least squareHassan Jalil
A quantitative method of forecasting or smoothing a time series by averaging each successive group (no. of observations) of data values.
Term MOVING is used because it is obtained by summing and averaging the values from a given no of periods, each time deleting the oldest value and adding a new value.
Moving avg & method of least squareHassan Jalil
A quantitative method of forecasting or smoothing a time series by averaging each successive group (no. of observations) of data values.
Term MOVING is used because it is obtained by summing and averaging the values from a given no of periods, each time deleting the oldest value and adding a new value.
Time Series Analysis - 1 | Time Series in R | Time Series Forecasting | Data ...Simplilearn
This Time Series Analysis (Part-1) in R presentation will help you understand what is time series, why time series, components of time series, when not to use time series, why does a time series have to be stationary, how to make a time series stationary and at the end, you will also see a use case where we will forecast car sales for 5th year using the given data. A time series is a sequence of data being recorded at specific time intervals. The past values are analyzed to forecast a future which is time-dependent. Compared to other forecast algorithms, with time series we deal with a single variable which is dependent on time. So, lets deep dive into this presentation and understand what is time series and how to implement time series using R.
Below topics are explained in this "Time Series in R Tutorial" -
1. Why time series?
2. What is time series?
3. Components of a time series
4. When not to use time series?
5. Why does a time series have to be stationary?
6. How to make a time series stationary?
7. Example: Forcast car sales for the 5th year
Become an expert in data analytics using the R programming language in this data science certification training course. You’ll master data exploration, data visualization, predictive analytics and descriptive analytics techniques with the R language. With this data science course, you’ll get hands-on practice on R CloudLab by implementing various real-life, industry-based projects in the domains of healthcare, retail, insurance, finance, airlines, music industry, and unemployment.
Why learn Data Science with R?
1. This course forms an ideal package for aspiring data analysts aspiring to build a successful career in analytics/data science. By the end of this training, participants will acquire a 360-degree overview of business analytics and R by mastering concepts like data exploration, data visualization, predictive analytics, etc
2. According to marketsandmarkets.com, the advanced analytics market will be worth $29.53 Billion by 2019
3. Wired.com points to a report by Glassdoor that the average salary of a data scientist is $118,709
4. Randstad reports that pay hikes in the analytics industry are 50% higher than IT
The Data Science with R is recommended for:
1. IT professionals looking for a career switch into data science and analytics
2. Software developers looking for a career switch into data science and analytics
3. Professionals working in data and business analytics
4. Graduates looking to build a career in analytics and data science
5. Anyone with a genuine interest in the data science field
6. Experienced professionals who would like to harness data science in their fields
Learn more at: https://www.simplilearn.com/
A method that uses measurable, historical data observations, to make forecasts by calculating the weighted average of the current period’s actual value and forecast, with a trend adjustment added in
This lecture is about TIME SERIES ANALYSIS in which quantmod and PerformanceAnalytics packages in R have been used to generate results relating time series datasets. Also, ploted the returns and observed one of the main features of financial return: volatility that changes with time.
Time Series Analysis - 1 | Time Series in R | Time Series Forecasting | Data ...Simplilearn
This Time Series Analysis (Part-1) in R presentation will help you understand what is time series, why time series, components of time series, when not to use time series, why does a time series have to be stationary, how to make a time series stationary and at the end, you will also see a use case where we will forecast car sales for 5th year using the given data. A time series is a sequence of data being recorded at specific time intervals. The past values are analyzed to forecast a future which is time-dependent. Compared to other forecast algorithms, with time series we deal with a single variable which is dependent on time. So, lets deep dive into this presentation and understand what is time series and how to implement time series using R.
Below topics are explained in this "Time Series in R Tutorial" -
1. Why time series?
2. What is time series?
3. Components of a time series
4. When not to use time series?
5. Why does a time series have to be stationary?
6. How to make a time series stationary?
7. Example: Forcast car sales for the 5th year
Become an expert in data analytics using the R programming language in this data science certification training course. You’ll master data exploration, data visualization, predictive analytics and descriptive analytics techniques with the R language. With this data science course, you’ll get hands-on practice on R CloudLab by implementing various real-life, industry-based projects in the domains of healthcare, retail, insurance, finance, airlines, music industry, and unemployment.
Why learn Data Science with R?
1. This course forms an ideal package for aspiring data analysts aspiring to build a successful career in analytics/data science. By the end of this training, participants will acquire a 360-degree overview of business analytics and R by mastering concepts like data exploration, data visualization, predictive analytics, etc
2. According to marketsandmarkets.com, the advanced analytics market will be worth $29.53 Billion by 2019
3. Wired.com points to a report by Glassdoor that the average salary of a data scientist is $118,709
4. Randstad reports that pay hikes in the analytics industry are 50% higher than IT
The Data Science with R is recommended for:
1. IT professionals looking for a career switch into data science and analytics
2. Software developers looking for a career switch into data science and analytics
3. Professionals working in data and business analytics
4. Graduates looking to build a career in analytics and data science
5. Anyone with a genuine interest in the data science field
6. Experienced professionals who would like to harness data science in their fields
Learn more at: https://www.simplilearn.com/
A method that uses measurable, historical data observations, to make forecasts by calculating the weighted average of the current period’s actual value and forecast, with a trend adjustment added in
This lecture is about TIME SERIES ANALYSIS in which quantmod and PerformanceAnalytics packages in R have been used to generate results relating time series datasets. Also, ploted the returns and observed one of the main features of financial return: volatility that changes with time.
IST 230 Exercise on Forecasting RecurrencesUse Excel or OpenO.docxpriestmanmable
IST 230 Exercise on Forecasting Recurrences
Use Excel or OpenOffice to forecast the Airline Sales and US Interest Rate data in the data spreadsheet (data.xls or data.ods). You'll see that I started this for you for the airline data. There's also a tutorial in the exercise directory which you may find helpful.
Smooth the data using exponential smoothing. If you think the time series does not have a long-term trend up or down, use simple exponential smoothing. If you think the time series does have a long-term trend up or down, use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing for each of these time series. Note that this requires that you first do the simple exponential smoothing, and then compute the trend as the smoothed difference between successive forecasts. Finally, compute the trend-adjusted forecast as the sum of these two. Your objective should be to get a fairly smooth (hence the term “smoothing”) curve that follows the trend and runs as closely as possible through the middle of the data. This will usually give an RMS error as small as possible without following the cycles.
Add some type of cyclical adjustment. My usual approach is to compute a ratio the actual data and the exponentially smoothed forecast – a so-called “cyclical index” (or if it follows a calendar-year pattern, it's called a “seasonal index”.) You'll find additional info in the tutorial.
For both time series (airline-sales and interest-rates), forecast 12 periods ahead (h=12), starting from the beginning of your data, and extrapolate your forecast 12 periods past where you have actual data, based on your latest trend estimate and your cyclical index. Note you won't be able to assess the forecast for these, since you don't have actual data.
Use the exponential smoothing formulae given below.
Compute the mean-squared error by summing the squared differences between the forecast values and the actual values.
Your deliverable a one or two page executive summary of your results in a PDF document entitled exercise8-flastname.pdf, where flastname is your first initial and last name (e.g., for me, dmudgett). In your summary, present
- A brief one-sentence statement of your problem plus an explanation of how you
selected alpha, beta, and figured out the cyclical pattern. (1 paragraph)
- Graphs of your forecast and actual data for your final choices of alpha and beta
(should be just 2 graphs)
- A table of RMS forecast error for at least 3 choices of alpha and beta, for each time
series.
Here are the exponential smoothing formulae (carefully read the explanation of n-periods ahead forecasting).
Simple Exponential Smoothing:
The simple exponential smoothing forecast is given by:
F(t+1) = F(t) + alpha*(A(t) - F(t)) = (1-alpha)*F(t) + alpha*A(t) (1)
where
F(t+1) = the one-period-ahead forecast for period t+1
F(t) = the forecast for period t
A(t) = the actual value in period t
alpha is known as the smoothing constant, a constant in the range (0,1)
...
Assessing the Importance of Social Media and Social Networks to Rural College Students Seeking Employment highlights the use of Internet tools in finding jobs.
www.EdDansereau.com
Basic Break Even decision for managers. The break even calculation may be extend to help with outsource decisions.
Creative Commons allowed. All rights reserved Ed Dansereau @ 2016
How to set up a Graphical Method Linear Programming Problem - IntroductionEd Dansereau
How to set-up a simple linear programming problem using the Graphical Method. Excellent teaching tool before moving on to Simplex Method.. How to solve a linear programming problem.
Creative Commons allowed. All rights reserved by Ed Dansereau @ 2016
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfThiyagu K
This slides describes the basic concepts of ICT, basics of Email, Emerging Technology and Digital Initiatives in Education. This presentations aligns with the UGC Paper I syllabus.
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
Welcome to TechSoup New Member Orientation and Q&A (May 2024).pdfTechSoup
In this webinar you will learn how your organization can access TechSoup's wide variety of product discount and donation programs. From hardware to software, we'll give you a tour of the tools available to help your nonprofit with productivity, collaboration, financial management, donor tracking, security, and more.
The French Revolution, which began in 1789, was a period of radical social and political upheaval in France. It marked the decline of absolute monarchies, the rise of secular and democratic republics, and the eventual rise of Napoleon Bonaparte. This revolutionary period is crucial in understanding the transition from feudalism to modernity in Europe.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
Students, digital devices and success - Andreas Schleicher - 27 May 2024..pptxEduSkills OECD
Andreas Schleicher presents at the OECD webinar ‘Digital devices in schools: detrimental distraction or secret to success?’ on 27 May 2024. The presentation was based on findings from PISA 2022 results and the webinar helped launch the PISA in Focus ‘Managing screen time: How to protect and equip students against distraction’ https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/managing-screen-time_7c225af4-en and the OECD Education Policy Perspective ‘Students, digital devices and success’ can be found here - https://oe.cd/il/5yV
2. Forecasting
We will look at four different forecasting methods
1. Naive
2. Weighted Moving Average
3. Exponential Smooth
4. Linear Trend
In addition, we will look Forecast Accuracy
● MAE
● MSE
3. Naive
Naive is a quick and easy, but not highly accurate forecast. Sometimes the Naive
is used in teaching examples to start another forecast method.
Simply you assume that the forecast for the next period will be the same as the
current period.
If in January sales where $200,000, then February sales are forecasted at
$200,000.
Naive is responsive but not smooth.
4. Weighted Moving Average
Weighted averages are used to smooth a forecast. Smoothing removes some of
the quick reaction to one jump or dip in a forecast to maintain a long term trend
line.
To break down the parts, first let us look at the “average”. The average is just the
sum divided by how many periods the forecast covers. For example if we have 3
months sales of $120K (March), $110K (February), and $100K (January) our
average would be $110K.
● Average = (120+110+100)/3 = 110
The Moving part is we always look at the most recent months. As a new month is
add an old month drops off of the back end.
5. Weighted Average
Alternatively, we could write the average as
● Avg = ⅓*100 + ⅓*110 + ⅓*120 = 110
The ⅓ is a weight. For a straight average we assign the same weight to each
number. For a weighted forecast, we assign different weights. We typically assign
the most current month a greater weight.
WA3 = (.2)100 + (.3)110 + (.5)120 = 123
● The three in the subscript denotes a 3 month Weight Average
● Most recent month, March given the greatest weight.
6. Exponential Smooth
Exponential Smooth introduces the statistical concepts of “error”, “Alpha” (𝜶 -
symbol for alpha), and subscript notation.
In statistical terms, Error is the difference between actual and estimated value and
is often expressed as a percentage (5%).
● Errort = At - Ft
For example, if we forecasted March Sales as $17,000 and at the end of March we
added up transactions a post actual sales of $20,000, then we had an error of
$3000 or 15%. Error can be positive or negative.
7. Exponential Smooth
Alpha is the smoothing factor
In forecasting it determines the percentage of error to be added to the next
forecast.
In general, Alpha can range from 0.1 to 1.0 (10% to 100%)
8. Exponential Smooth - Subscripts
Subscript t
Current time or period
Subscript t+1
The forecast for the next period (current time plus one)
Subscript t-1
The previous period (or current time minus one)
For example
Ft+1 = is the Forecast for the next time period
F = is the Forecast for the current time period
9. Exponential Smooth
Equation
Ft+1 = αAt + (1-α)Ft
Simplified equation
Ft+1 = αAt + 1Ft-αFt → Multiple current forecast by one minus alpha
Ft+1 = 1Ft + αAt - αFt → rearrange terms
Ft+1 = Ft + α(At - Ft) → Factor out Alpha
Ft+1 = Ft + α(At - Ft)
10. Exponential Smooth
Example, Find the forecast for May using Exp Smooth
Alpha is 0.5
Naive Forecast is used to get process moving, organizations would have historical data
May’s Forecast is $17,156
Month Sales Naive Error Exp Smooth
Jan 16,250
Feb 17,000 16,250 750
Mar 20,000 3,375 16,625 =16250 + 0.5*750
Apr 16,000 -2,313 18,313 =16625 +
0.5*3375
May 17,156
11. Linear Trend
Linear Trend is the mathematical relationship between demand and some other
factor that causes demand. When demand displays a trend over time then a linear
trend model can be used to forecast demand. Demand may be revenue or a stock
price.
Y = mt + b (in statistics textbooks → T1 = b0 + b1t)
Y is the forecasted demand for period t
t is the time period (x is used for regression)
m is the slope of the line (rise over run)
b is the y-axis intercept
12. Linear Trend
We must calculate the following values for the Linear Trend
M - Slope calculated using least squares formulas
Sub-caluclations tY, t2, ΣtY, Σt2, tbar (t average), ybar (y average)
B - the slope intercept
Sub-calculations tbar and ybar from above
13. Linear Trend
Simple Example of 4 months worth of revenue
(in millions)
Month (t) Revenue (Y)
Jan 14
Feb 18
Mar 17
Apr 22
Start by setting up a table for calculations
t is the month of revenue (1st month, 2nd
month, and so on), y is revenue, tY is
multiplication and t2 is the square of t.
Next create a row for summation (sigma)
and average (tbar, ybar)
Month Revenue
t Y tY t2
1 14
2 18
3 17
4 22
Sum
Avg
14. Linear Trend
Table Calculations
Month Revenue
t Y tY t2
1 14 14 1
2 18 36 4
3 17 51 9
4 22 88 16
Sum 10 71 189 30
Avg 2.5 17.75 47.25 7.5
Month Revenue
t Y tY t2
1 14 =B3*C3 =B3^2
2 18 =B4*C4 =B4^2
3 17 =B5*C5 =B5^2
4 22 =B6*C6 =B6^2
Sum =SUM(B3:B6) =SUM(C3:C6) =SUM(D3:D6) =SUM(E3:E6)
Avg =AVERAGE(B3:B6)
=AVERAGE(C3:C6
)
=AVERAGE(D3:
D6)
=AVERAGE(E3:
E6)
15. Linear Trend
Table ∑ty is the sum of the ty column, 189
Ybar is average of the Y column, 17.75
tbar is average of t column, 2.5
∑t2 is the sumof t2 column, 30
(tbar)2 is avg of tbar column squared , 2.52 = 6.25
n is the number of months in forecast, 4
Month Revenue
t Y tY t2
1 14 14 1
2 18 36 4
3 17 51 9
4 22 88 16
Sum 10 71 189 30
Avg 2.5 17.75 47.25 7.5
16. Linear Trend
Calculate the slope of the line
M = (∑ty - n*Ybar*tbar) / (∑t2 - n* t2
bar )
M =(D7-B6*B8*C8)/(E7-B6*B8^2)
Plug in numbers
M = (189-4*2.5*17.75)/(30-4*6.25)
M = 2.3
From Table
∑ty is the sum of the ty column, 189
Ybar is average of the Y column, 17.75
tbar is average of t column, 2.5
∑t2 is the sum of t2 column, 30
(tbar)2 is avg of tbar column squared , 2.52 = 6.25
n is the number of months in forecast, 4
17. Linear Trend
Calculate b, the intercept
Y = mt + b, so solve for b
b = Ybar - mtbar
b = C8-C10*B8
Plug in the numbers
b = 17.57 - 2.3 * 2.5
b = 12
From Table
∑ty is the sum of the ty column, 189
Ybar is average of the Y column, 17.75
tbar is average of t column, 2.5
∑t2 is the sum of t2 column, 30
(tbar)2 is avg of tbar column squared , 2.52 = 6.25
n is the number of months in forecast, 4
m is 2.3
18. Linear Trend
Let’s make a forecast!
Y= mt + b
Y = 2.3t + 12
What is the forecast May (month 5) and June (month 6)?
Ymay = 2.3(5) + 12 = 23.5
Yjune = 2.3.(6) + 12 = 25.8