2. A Seasonal Demand Series Fig. 2-8

3. Seasonal Series with Increasing Trend Fig. 2-10

7. Forecast made in period t for any future period t + τ

9. Initialization for Winters’s Method Fig. 2-11

11. 22/ [21.75 -(5/2-4)(.875) ] =.9539 30/ [21.75 -(5/2-3)(.875) ] =1.352 23/ [21.75 -(5/2-2)(.875) ] =1.079 12/ [21.75 -(5/2-1)(.875) ] =.5872 17/ [ 18.25-(5/2-4)(.875) ] =.869 26/ [ 18.25-(5/2-3)(.875) ] =1.391 20/ [ 18.25-(5/2-2)(.875) ] =1.123 10/ [ 18.25-(5/2-1)(.875) ] =.5904 c 0 c -1 c -2 c -3 c -4 c -5 c -6 c -7 So=21.75+(.875)(1.5) =23.06 Go=(21.75-18.25)/4 =.875 .9115 22 8 1.3720 30 7 1.1010 23 6 (.5904+.5872)/2 =.5888 21.75 12 5 17 4 26 3 20 2 18.25 10 1 V i D t Period