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PERRY STEPHENSON | SENIOR SOFTWARE ENGINEER | ATLASSIAN
Automatic Forecasting
Creating a robust, fault-tolerant, auditable and reproducible forecasting
pipeline
Empowered End User
Building pipelines with end-user tooling means

I can Get S#!* Done™ all by myself
Reproducibility
Lots of people talk about it. 

I did something about it.
I ❤ Databricks
It makes my life easier and makes me look
good in front of colleagues and managers
Why am I
speaking?
Perry Stephenson
ATLASSIAN
BUSINESS CASE
Forecasting a special case
for Machine Learning
because you need to retrain
every time you make a
CONTEXT
Holdout
Holdout
End-to-End Pipeline
Create a robust, fault-
tolerant, auditable and
reproducible forecasting
pipeline
Backtesting
Evaluate the whole
pipeline using
backtesting.

Prioritise stability
Ensuring Fresh Forecasts
MEME TRANSLATION
Update
Dataset
Train
Models
Score
Models
Not Production Production
Update
Dataset
Train
Models
Score
Models
Production
Support Ticket Forecasting Pipeline
Scheduler (monthly)
Create

Modelling
Dataset
Update

Modelling
Dataset
Train
Forecast
Models
Score
Forecast
Models
1 2 3 4
Delta 

Lake
MLflow
Tracking
Notebook
Workflows
Review 

Pipeline
Agenda
Delta Lake
Reproducible Training Data
Support Ticket Forecasting Pipeline
Scheduling
Create

Modelling
Dataset
Update

Modelling
Dataset
Train
Forecast
Models
Score
Forecast
Models
1 2 3 4
Support Ticket Forecasting Pipeline
Create

Modelling
Dataset
create table zone_myteam.my_table
using delta
as
select * from … … …
1
Update

Modelling
Dataset
Support Ticket Forecasting Pipeline
- Runs every month to update the dataset
- Merges changes and retains history
by leveraging Delta Lake
2
MORE INFO

ABOUT THE
PIPELINE
DELTA LAKE
THIS TALK >>>
FAKE NEW
S
DELTA LAKE GIVES YOU
VERSIONED TABLES FOR
REPRODUCIBLE DATA
SCIENCE
merge into zone_myteam.my_table as existing
using my_latest_data as new
on existing.date_name = new.date_name
and existing.platform = new.platform
and existing.customer_region = new.customer_region
when matched then
update set *
when not matched then
insert *
Update

Modelling
Dataset
Support Ticket Forecasting Pipeline
- Creates a new version every time it
runs
- Latest version is always the most
accurate
- Can recover any previous version of
the training dataset
MLflow Tracking
Reproducible Forecasting Models
Support Ticket Forecasting Pipeline
Scheduling
Create

Modelling
Dataset
Update

Modelling
Dataset
Train
Forecast
Models
Score
Forecast
Models
Support Ticket Forecasting Pipeline
Train
Forecast
Models
- Written in R, using Facebook Prophet
- Trains a model for every ticket grouping,
stores model + metadata in MLflow
- Takes an argument for “forecast_date”
to allow backfilling, defaults to month
end
MLflow
THIS TALK >>>
MORE INFO

ABOUT THE
PIPELINE
LOGGING TO MLFLOW
mlflow_client_static <- mlflow_client()
run_info <- mlflow_start_run(experiment_id = 611628)
… … …
mlflow_log_param(key = “forecast_date", value = forecast_date)
mlflow_log_param(key = “platform", value = platform)
… … …
mlflow_log_artifact(path = 'prophet_model.rds',
artifact_path = ‘model’)
… … …
mlflow_end_run(run_id = run_info$run_uuid,
client = mlflow_client_static)
Scheduling
Create

Modelling
Dataset
Update

Modelling
Dataset
Train
Forecast
Models
Score
Forecast
Models
Delta
MLflow
Delta
Score
Forecast
Models
Support Ticket Forecasting Pipeline
- Reads from MLflow (two passes to
recover params), builds an execution
plan
- Scores each forecast, and prepares
aggregates for consumption
- Appends/overwrites results in our data
lake, with history maintained using Delta
- Includes MLflow links for every row in
the forecast table
READING FROM MLFLOW
required_forecasts <- mlflow_list_run_infos(experiment_id=611628)
for (i in 1:nrow(required_forecasts)) {
run_details <- mlflow_get_run(required_forecasts$run_uuid[i])
run_params <- run_details$params[[1]]
… … …
# not shown: unpack params and score model
# not shown: weekly/monthly/quarterly aggregations
# not shown: add MLFlow URL
}
# not shown: union and upload all forecasts at once
Score
Forecast
Models
Support Ticket Forecasting Pipeline
- Uploads all results to in-memory
temporary table
- Deletes all records from the final table
with the same forecast_date
- Merges changes in to forecast output
table
Notebook Workflows
Flexible and Reliable Execution
NOTEBOOK
WORKFLOWS
THIS TALK >>>
MORE INFO

ABOUT THE
PIPELINE
WIDGETS (AKA NOTEBOOK ARGUMENTS)
Review
Scheduling
Update Modelling
Dataset
Train Forecast Models
Score Forecast Models
15th day of the month
Delta table
MLflow
ULTIMATE PRETTY GOOD REPRODUCIBILITY
Forecast Table
Forecast Row
MLflow URL
Model Binary Table Name Table Version
Training Data
The Databricks platform
supports the chaos during
early development, and
provides pathways to
CONCLUSION
Automatic Forecasting using Prophet, Databricks, Delta Lake and MLflow

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