The document discusses the need to transition to more sustainable transportation systems due to various global challenges like rising energy prices and climate change. It notes that Toyota was able to transition successfully after the 1970s oil crisis by adopting the Toyota Production System. The document advocates for policies and technologies that can reduce car dependency and transition to electric, shared, and public transportation systems to address issues like congestion, emissions, and costs. Examples of innovative sustainable transportation projects and policies around the world are provided.

1. Natural Capitalism Solutions
T H E F U T U R E O F M O B I L I T Y
© NCS 2009

2. I love motors...

3. The world is changing

4. Business-As-Usual cannot endure
Businesses, governments and raceways will either drive change in
ways that allow companies and economies to flourish or they will
be forced respond to unrelenting crises and hope for the best.

5. Global Drivers of Change
• Carbon constrained world
• Volatile energy prices
• The sustainability imperative
• Loss of ecosystem services
• Chindia
• Economic instability
• Water
• Food

6. Toyota’s Chief Engineer, Taiichi Ohno:
“Prior to the oil crisis [of the 1970s], when I
talked to people about Toyota’s manufacturing
technology and production system, I found
little interest. When rapid growth stopped,
however, it became very obvious that a
business could not be profitable using the
conventional American mass production
system that had worked so well for so long.”
“The Oil Crisis Opened our Eyes” Toyota Production System, 1978.

7. Toyota’s Chief Engineer, Taiichi Ohno:
“Prior to the oil crisis [of the 1970s], when I
talked to people about Toyota’s manufacturing
technology and production system, I found
little interest. When rapid growth stopped,
however, it became very obvious that a
business could not be profitable using the
conventional American mass production
system that had worked so well for so long.”
“The Oil Crisis Opened our Eyes” Toyota Production System, 1978.

8. 2006 Profits ($B)

9. R. James Woolsey’s solar
powered plug-in-hybrid
has a bumper sticker
reading:
“Osama bin Ladin hates
my car.”

10. IEA
2007: IEA report:
World could face oil shortage within five years
2009: Whistleblowers:
IEA deliberately understating how close the world may
be to running out of oil - ‘imperative not to anger the
Americans’ or cause panic
Dec 2009: IEA Chief Economist:
“...in three, four years' time the production of
conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to
decline... which is, of course, not good news from a
global-oil-supply point of view. ”

11. WikiLeaks cables show that Saudi Arabia's oil reserves
have been exaggerated by as much as 40%, or 300
billion barrels.
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves

12. 24 February
$120 a barrel Libyan revolution
3 March
$200 a barrel if Algeria goes offline
Economist
7 March
$250 a barrel if oil tankers and reserves in Libya hit
Alan Duncan: UK Int’l Development Minister

13. Time to reconsider?

14. Why do we drive…?
Status
Fun
ScheduleCargo

15. Transportation – we’ve come a long way

16. Transport … carrying:
Food Stuff
People
from one place to another

17. Do we need to get into a car
every day?
• The average car trip is
less than 16 km (10
miles)
• Design better
transportation systems
• Create walkable
neighborhoods

18. Transportation
• 27% of all
automobile miles
traveled are
incurred going to
and from work
• 78% are driven in
single-occupancy
vehicles (SOV)

19. Transport costs
• Traffic congestion
• Air quality
• Collisions
• Infrastructure and
Maintenance
• Environmental Costs An average parking
space costs roughly
$6,000 per year

20. GHG Emissions
• Transportation sector is the
fastest growing in terms of
climate impact.
- 13% of global greenhouse
gases (GHG)
• At current rate, emissions
will increase 57% worldwide
by 2030.
- 80% of this in developing
countries

21. Auto Deaths
In countries that are free
of war, the largest cause
of violent death is
usually traffic fatalities
Young people have
more car accidents than
almost any other age
group
Accidents raise
health care costs,
insurance rates,
and lost work
productivity

22. We’ve reduced our
social interactions to
aggressive competition
through windscreens
for square meters of
asphalt
Road rage

23. Next wave of transportation
innovation should:
Decrease congestion
Foster accessibility and equity
Enhance livelihoods
Support walkable communities
Enhance pedestrian mobility
Improve environmental impact
Decrease cost

24. How much could you save by
sharing a car?
Total cost of ownership, over $30,000
• Average annual car insurance
$1,837
• Annual operating costs $6,000 –
$10,000
• Cost of new mid-size sedan $20,000

25. Carsharing
• Use a vehicle when
you need it, without
the annual cost of
ownership
• Carsharing
programs in
operation in 600
cities around the
world.

26. Time to change the way we
fund transportation
• Gas Tax
• Electronic Tolling
• Variable Pricing
• Regional Partnerships
• Incentivize Public &
Alternative Transit
• Bike Lanes

28. Vauban, Germany car-free city
70% of Vauban’s 5,500 residents do not own
cars, and 57% sold a car to move there.

29. UK transit policy
In 2000, Britain began comprehensive effort to
discourage car use by requiring that new
development be accessible by public transit.
“Development comprising jobs, shopping,
leisure and services should not be designed
and located on the assumption that the car
will represent the only realistic means of
access for the vast majority of people”

30. Masdar- The Source – Abu Dhabi
City of 50,000
Car free
Zero waste
Passively cooled
Solar canopies
Center for renewable energy research
1,500 clean tech start-ups focusing on solar,
wind and hydrogen power, carbon reduction
and management, sustainable development,
education, manufacturing

31. Congestion Tax
Vehicles entering city
centers are charged
based on real-time pricing
- Reduce traffic congestion
- Improve air quality
- Generates revenue
- Lowers GHG emissions

32. Bio-Fuels
Our need for oil is
fast becoming a
hunger problem
Food Riots
Competing
for scarce
land

33. Growing food and water scarcity
33 countries around the
world face potential
social unrest due to
spikes in food prices.
The recent spikes in
food prices have left
nations volatile, with
ensuing food riots
World Bank President
Robert Zoellick
Food riots fear after rice price
hits a high

34. World and regional ethanol
production

35. • Expanded hybrid fleet by
50% to over 250
vehicles
• Improve fuel economy
by 44%
• Decrease particulate
matter by 96%
• Reduce smog-causing
(NOx) emissions by 75%
FedEx Hybrid Vehicles

36. Federal agreement with 13
automakers to reach 54.5
MPG by 2025.
Equals a fuel savings of
$8,000 per vehicle, or $1.7
trillion nationally.
Reduces oil consumption by
2.2 million barrels a day, this
is half of what we import from
OPEC.
Fuel Efficiency Standard

37. • Of the 41 million cars in
the Germany, only 1,452
are electric.
• German government
goal to put million
electric vehicles on
roadways by 2020.
• Government investing
€500m ($705m) to
achieve this.
Electric Cars … the future of the
auto industry?

38. Fiskar Karma with PV roof

39. Renault/ BMW
concept car
VW E-Up electric car
2013 – 130 km range,
1 hr to 80% charge

40. Challenge: lithium batteries
Japanese are recycling the lithium

41. Shai Agassi
Better Place –
renewable
electric cars

42. dailyenergyreport.com
NASCAR: Mainstream Green
NASCAR is the top
spectator sport in the
U.S., with an
estimated 75 million
followers
The No. 2 regular
season sport on TV.
Potential for helping
to make “green” more
mainstream.

43. Has the largest recycling program in sports.
Recycled over:
- 1,000 tons of paper/cans
- 121,000 tires
- 180,000 gallons of oil
Made possible by
partnerships with:
- Coca-cola
- Coors Light
- Freightliner
- Goodyear
NASCAR Green Initiatives

44. dailyenergyreport.com
NASCAR Green Initiatives
Participating
raceways plant 10
trees for each green
flag that drops.
Last year over 1000
trees were planted.
Plans to expand the
program to offset
100% of GHG
emissions from racing.

45. dailyenergyreport.com
NASCAR Green Initiatives
All races are now run
on 15% ethanol.
Comes from corn
grown in the U.S.
Reduces GHG
emissions by 20%.
The fuel blend
increases horsepower
6-8%.

46. dailyenergyreport.com
NASCAR Green Initiatives
“ . . . the switch to ethanol
might be the most
important step in achieving
an ancillary benefit —
attracting new sponsors in
the green economy to
cash-strapped teams
hurting for funding since
the onset of the
recession.”
- CEO / Chairman Brian France

47. dailyenergyreport.com
NASCAR Green Initiatives
"Safe. Green. Smart. Quality.
These are the four pillars of
Ford Motor Company and it's
our mission that we are
committed to on a daily
basis . . . . and we applaud
NASCAR for taking this
important step toward an
ethanol blend of fuel.”
- Jamie Allison, Director of Ford
North America Motorsports
“It's terribly important to
car manufacturers that
we're in step with the
strategic thinking
they're doing right now.
- CEO / Chairman Brian
France

48. NASCAR had trouble requiring cars to
use 4-cylinder engines because
“lower-revving engines would
detract from the races’ aural
spectacle”.
Instead, race cars will use 6-cylinder
engines in 2013, which will achieve
35% better fuel efficiency than
currently used V-8 engines.
Formula One cars are also switching
from 2.4 litre V8s to 1.6 litre
turbocharged V6s.
NASCAR Green Initiatives

49. NASCAR and Other Tracks
Select IndyCar Series races
run on 100% field-grade
ethanol.
IZOD IndyCar Series installing
solar electric systems and
educating fans on solar power
during the 2011 season.
Pocono Raceway in PA has a
25-acre solar farm – the world’s
largest solar-powered sports
facility.

50. Installed a 1,700 panel, 350
kilowatt solar array
- Provides 41% of energy
Waterless urinals reduce water
consumption by 36%, and
landscaping uses recycled and
reclaimed water
The raceway has 3,000 sheep
to help maintain the facility’s
grasses and fire lanes
Infineon Raceway

51. Recognized by State of California
for recycling over 141 tons of
material.
Held first zero-emission
motorcycle race on American soil.
15 owl boxes encourage owls to
nest and hunt for rodents –
reducing the need for pesticides
and other pest-controlling poisons
Infineon Raceway

52. Global Biodiversity Outlook Three -
GBO-3

53. I am a professor of a discipline
that did not exist when I went to
college

55. Ray Anderson
What is the business
case for ending life
on earth?

56. The best way to predict the
future is to invent it

57. www.natcapsolutions.org
www.unreasonableinstitute.org
Natural Capitalism Solutions
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