The document discusses the challenges of developing sustainable cars, including climate change, depletion of fossil fuels, and air pollution. It argues that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) currently represent the best trade-off, as they can match the performance and autonomy of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles while reducing emissions and oil dependence. PHEVs do not require expensive new charging infrastructure and can cut oil use by up to 80% compared to ICEs. The document concludes that electrification will gradually increase through PHEVs as battery prices fall, until electric vehicles (EVs) can replace ICEs globally by 2040.

1. Will electric cars rule the future?
Nicolas Meilhan
Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan
September 2016

2. 2
3 major challenges we have to take into consideration to develop a
sustainable car : climatic changes, end of fossil fuels and air
pollution
Performance
• Efficiency
• Acceleration
• Top speed
• CO2 emissions
• Air pollution
Climatic changes
•CO2 emission at highest level
in the last 800,000 years
•More than 2° expected by 2100
with drastic consequences if
nothing is done
End of fossil resources
•97% of road transportation
use fossil fuels
•Oil, which is the main driver
of our economy, might have
disappeared by the end of
the century
Air pollution
•With the rural exodus and
development of mega cities,
air pollution has reached
unprecedented levels
•Serious health diseases to
multiply drastically
ChallengesConstrains
Sustainable car KSF = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Costs
• Total cost of
ownership
• Retail
• Recharging
• Maintenance
Autonomy
• Distance without
charging
• Time to recharge
• Storage weight
Infrastructure
• Investment required
to update existing
infrastructure and/or
build a new one
• Standards across all
countries
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost

3. 3
The reason why electric vehicles never met the gap until now is that fossil
fuels have the best energy density, both in mass and volume, than any other
energy vector
Source : Pierre-René BAUQUIS
Energy density of energy vectors used in transport
Fossil fuels have a mass density 100 times as high as batteries
 1kg of fossil fuel contain as much energy as in 100 kg of batteries

4. 4
If anthropogenic contribution to climate change is still being
debated, global warming is happening with up to 5°C increase by
2100 in the worst case scenarios with drastic consequences
800,000 Year Record of CO2 Concentration
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
• The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 30% higher than at any time in
measurable history
• It is predicted to reach from 550 to 900 ppm by 2100 – 85% to 200% increase compare to
highest concentration observed in the last 800,000 years
Projected temperature up to 2100

5. 5
Knowing whether we’ll still have fossil fuel in 2100 is not key
– the critical issue is how long we will have affordable oil to fuel our
economy and our cars
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
Extractioninbillionsofoil
barrelsperyear
Liquid fuels extraction
- 1930 to 2050 -
« It's not the size of the tank which matters, but the size of the tap»
Jean-Marie Bourdaire

6. 6
Air pollution is one of the key driver for city to adopt EV cars,
especially in China. Diesel emissions (particles & NOx) are
particularly unhealthy even though CO2 emissions are lower
Particles (PM) emissions in Paris
9th of juin 2004, 10h, atmo index « Mauvais 7 »
14th of June 2004, 10h, atmo index « Bon 3 »
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
PM10 = 20 µg/m3
PM10 = 80 µg/m3
72,000 people killed every year in Europe
because of NOx emissions from diesel cars
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis, ICCT
NOx emissions for diesel vehicles
- Standards vs. reality -

7. 7
Plug-in hybrids offer the best trade-off between petroleum
consumption and Well-to-Wheel Emission
Fuel Consumption and Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions for Future (2035 Cars)
Source: More Sustainable transportation: The Role of Energy Efficient Vehicle Technologies, Sloan Automotive Laboratory (MIT), April 2008
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
Plug-in hybrids (30 miles)

8. 8
Country electricity mix can have a huge impact on CO2 emissions of
electric vehicles
Well to wheel emissions of a battery vehicle
• Most of electricity in the USA (40%),Germany (45%) and China (70%) is produced from coal
• Nuclear and renewable energies (including hydro) are the only alternatives to produce CO2
free electricity
Emissions intensity
gCO2/kWh g/km
Wind 5.5 0.9
Nuclear 15 2.4
Hydro 18 2.9
Nuclear 60 9.6
Natural Gas - CC 461 74
Natural Gas 653 104
Coal 1075 172
CO2 emissions intensity (gCO2/kWh)
% of CO2
free
electricity
Emission
intensity
(gCO2 / kWh)
Well to wheel
emissions of electric
vehicle* (g/km)
France 90% 75 20
Canada 59% 267 43
California 44% 470 75
US 31% 710 114
China 20% 950 160
Source: Rouler sans pétrole, Pierre Langlois, 2008
* Equivalent to an intermediary ICE car = 9l/100 km => 244g/km
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost

9. 9
Plug-in hybrids are the only alternative technology able to compete
today at a global scale with the ICE on autonomy and infrastructure
investment required
Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2011
Autonomy
Infrastructure
investment
HighLow
Distance Time to recharge Storage weight
Internal Combustion
Engine
600 km 5 min Already existing45 kg
Plug-in hybrids
600 km (20 to 60
km electric)
Already existing2-3 hours 50 to 90 kg
Electric vehicle
60 to 250 km
electric
To be developed4-8 hours 90 to 250 kg
Fuel Cell Vehicle
600 km To be developed5 min 90 to 100 kg
Performance
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost

10. 10
Plug-in hybrids will be competitive with the ICE without any state
subsidy for an oil price over 2,5 €/L
Total cost of ownership of an ICE compared with a Plug-In Hybrid
* Prospects for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States and Japan: A General Equilibrium Analysis MIT, 2009
** 80% of French drivers average trip per day is less than 50 km every day
Payback period sensitivity to oil price and state subsidy
TCO of a C-segment car ICE
Plug-in hybrids
(50 km electric autonomy)
Retail price (€) 14800 € (20000$) + 7400 € (+10000 $*)
Electric autonomy 0 km 50 km
Energy consumption 7 l/100km 1.4 l/100km ** & 15 kWh/100km
Annual energy consumption (14000 km) 980 l 196 l & 1,68 MWh
Annual TCO(1,75€/l & 100 €/MWh) 1715 € 343 € + 168 € = 511 €
Annual TCO(2 €/l & 100 €/MWh) 1960 € 392 € + 168 € = 560 €
Annual TCO(2,5 €/l & 100 €/MWh) 2450 € 490 € + 168 € = 658 €
Oil price 1,75 € 2 € 2.5 €
Incremental annual TCO of ICE 1204 € 1400 € 1882 €
Payback period without subsidy 6.1 years 5.3 years 3.9 years
Payback period with a €2,000 subsidy 4,5 years 3,9 years 2.9 years
Payback period with a €4,000 subsidy 2.8 years 2,4 year 1.8 years
Épuisement des énergies fossiles
Performance
Changements climatiques Pollution atmosphérique
Autonomie Infrastructures Coûts

11. 11
Plug-in hybrids represent the best trade-off for a sustainable vehicle at a
global scale in the short to medium term - up to 2030
Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Plug-In Hybrids Electric VehicleInternal Combustion Engine
Battery Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
Metal
Independence
Highway Range
Charging
Infrastructure
Availability
Energy Efficiency
Affordability
Oil Independence
Metal
Independence
Highway Range
Charging
Infrastructure
Availability
Energy Efficiency
Affordability
Oil Independence
Metal
Independence
Highway Range
Charging
Infrastructure
Availability
Energy Efficiency
Affordability
Oil Independence
Metal
Independence
Highway Range
Charging
Infrastructure
Availability
Energy Efficiency
Affordability
Oil Independence

12. 12
PHEVs do not need an expensive fast charging infrastructure deployment, can
reduce oil consumption by as much as 80% and uses four times as less supply-
constrained cobalt than BEVs
Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Affordability
Metal
Independence
Highway
Range
Charging
Infrastructure
Availability
Energy
efficiency*
Oil
Independence
ICE
Most cost
competitive
alternative
5
Platine in
catalytic
converters
4
More than
500 km
5
Infrastructur
e existing
5
18%
Gasoline
22% Diesel
3
100%
oil
1 23
BEV
High cost of
60kWh
battery
3
Lithium and
cobalt for 60
kWh battery
2
Up to 300
km
3
Fast charger
network &
local grid
upgrade
2 20% 3
100%
electric
5 18
PHEV
20kWh
battery
4
Lithium and
cobalt for 20
kWh battery
3
More than
500 km
5
Local grid
upgrade
4 20% 3
80% electric
20% oil
4 23
FCEV
High cost of
fuel cell
stack
2
Platinum in
the fuel cell
stack
2
More than
500 km
5
Network of
hydrogen
station
1 8% 1
100%
electric
5 16
* Well to wheel

13. 13
Electrification of vehicles will take place progressively starting with Plug-in
hybrids whose electric autonomy increases when battery prices decrease -
up to the day when all vehicles will run electrically
• ICE will still be around for a while representing the majority of vehicle sales for another 15 years
• Hydrogen is very unlikely to be used in a car before 2025 - only an energy vector for gas or nuclear, no
significant advantage over an PHEV and some investments required to set up a distribution infrastructure
• EV, which neither emits CO2 nor pollutants, still face too many challenges – cost, autonomy, infrastructure,
norm standards – to have a chance to replace at a global scale the ICE before 2040.
• There is however a potential for EV and FC in local niche applications like company fleets, car sharing or
bus/tramway
• Plug-in hybrids has both the ICE advantages – autonomy, infrastructure required, affordable cost - and the EV
ones – Energy efficiency, Well to Wheel emissions without sharing their drawbacks
Annual light-duty sales by technology type Annual global EV and PHEV sales
Source: EIA 2011

14. 14
However electric cars will need more than hype to become mainstream!
Media attention for all alternative fuel vehicle technologies
- 1980–2013 -
Source: Moving beyond alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportation, Noel Melton, Jonn Axsen & Daniel Sperling, Nature Energy (2016)

15. 15
Nicolas Meilhan
Principal Consultant
Energy & Transportation Practices
(+33) 1 42 81 23 24
nicolas .meilhan@frost.com