Kobus Meiring, Diana Blake,  September 081OPTIMAL ENERGY
 Diana Blake – May 2011Joule, a spearhead for the south African Electric Vehicle and Battery industries2
What Challenges Are We Facing?The 6.5billion people in the world today are consuming 1.4 earths, i.e. the global community is living 40% above its means
The supply is finite, but demand is growing exponentially – 9 billion by 2050, all striving to live like the first world
We are borrowing from the future to prosper and grow today
Our current way of life is not sustainableDiana Blake,  May 20113
Threat: Global WarmingDiana Blake,  May 20114
Risk Of Overshooting 2°C – 50%!Diana Blake,  May 20115
Diana Blake,  May 20116Threat:  Energy SecurityBrent Crude on 11 May2011: $118/barrel
A Massive Opportunity:“Renewable energy, as a reaction to peak oil and climate change, is probably the most important economic boon that will occur in our lifetimes.”  - Craig Shields“Renewables are nothing less than the re-industrialisation of the whole planet.”  - John Doerr“No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come” - Victor HugoDiana Blake,  May 20117
A New Paradigm is needed:We need to use the present to improve the futureNature does not negotiate!Diana Blake,  May 20118
Current Transport Landscape~800,000,000 vehicles in the world, doubling by 2030>50% of world live in cities, 75% of city transport is by carOverwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuelsTransport causes ~ 1/3 of energy CO2 emissions in the worldEnergy security concerns around crude oil worseningMarket insecurity -> price volatility -> economic instabilityAlternatives needed!Diana Blake,  May 20119
Market ForecastBy 2020, 10% to 25% of global car production will be electric vehicles. (Frost & Sullivan, Renault, Betterplace, etc)
Global car fleet in 2010 – 800 000 000
Global car fleet in 2030 – 1500 000 000
10 million will be electric vehicles
Globally, EV’s will not only take market from the (ICE) fleet – it is mostly new growthDiana Blake,  May 201110
Legislation & Incentives:JAPAN:Substantial  rebate
New subsidies for EV manufacturers
Subsidised battery R&D
Currently building the largest Li-Ion battery manufacturing plant in the world (Matsushita Battery Industrial Co.)USA:1000 000 plug-ins by 2015,
Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program (ATVMLP): $25 billion in loansUK:
£5 000 subsidy
London – free parking, license, registration & exemption from congestion chargeISRAEL:70% tax on conventional cars, 10% tax on EV’sCHINA: EV’s one of four national 25 year projects, $15bn government fundingDENMARK:180% tax on conventional cars, 0% tax on EV’sSOUTH AFRICA:New Tax on Carbon Emissions
Investment in Optimal Energy for the development & production of the JouleIDC, DST have launched battery initiatives
SABS have included EV’S in committee
IPAP2 to support SA EVEUROPE:France – € 5000 rebate, France – Oneof  world’s first Auto focused Li-Ion battery plants
Monaco – €6 000 rebate
Spain – 1 million EV’s by 2014
Portugal – 20% of gov fleets, 1100 charging stnsThe Solution:Create a business & product that:Meets all sustainability goalsIs attractive to the mass marketIs affordable to the mainstreamMakes business sense nowMakes use of Legislation and IncentivesDiana Blake,  May 201112
Proven Technology1935: The decline of the electric vehicle was brought about and disappeared by 19351897: First vehicle with power steering – an EV. Electric self-starters 20 years beforeappearing in gas-powered cars1902: The Phaeton had a range of 18 miles, a top speed of 14 mph and cost $2,0001859: Gaston Plante invented rechargeable lead-acid batteries.1894 - 19351894 - 19351834: Thomas Davenport invents the battery electric car – batteries were not rechargeable1921: Federal Highway Act. By 1922, federal match (50%) for highway construction andrepair (for mail delivery).1900: All cars produced: 33% steam cars, 33% EV, and 33% gasoline cars1910: Electric vehicle production peaked1998: The Toyota RAV4 sport utility, the Honda EV Plus sedan, and the Chrysler EPIC minivan. These three vehicles were all equipped with advanced nickel metal hydride battery packs1990: U.S. 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment, the U.S. 1992 Energy Policy Act, and regulations issued by the California Air Resources Board (CARB)., several states have issued Zero Emission Vehicle requirements1990: GM shows their production EV initially named, Impact; later it was re-named the EV-12002: Toyota RAV4-EV retail sales; their estimated 2-year supply sold out in 8 months.1960 - 2003Source: Frost & Sullivan2000 : The Honda Insight  is the first production vehicle to feature Honda's Integrated Motor Assist system. The first-generation Insight was produced from 2000 to 2006 as a three-door hatchback.1960’s: The first Battronic electric truck was delivered to the Potomac Edison Company in 1964. This truck was capable of speeds of 25 mph, a range of 62 miles and a payload of 2,500 pounds1996 - 97: GM begins production of the EV-1 . Toyota Prius hybrid gas-electric vehicle unveiled at the Tokyo Auto Show2003: ZEV Mandate weakened to allow ZEV credits for non-ZEV s. Toyota stops production of the RAV4-EV; Honda stops lease renewals of the EV-Plus; GM does the same for the EV-113Diana Blake,  May 2011
Diana Blake  20111414This is the biggest and fastest change in the history of the automobile
Optimal Energy’s Vision:To establish and lead the electric vehicle industry in South Africa, and expand globally.Diana Blake  May 2011
Optimal Energy’s PrinciplesGREEN:With the convergence of three critical factors – climate change, pollution, and energy security, new types of urban transport must be developed and implemented in order to sustain the current way of lifeFORWARD THINKING, PROFITABLE:This convergence, together with advances in lithium battery technology, enables Optimal Energy to develop a business case giving a high return on investment, and to become a globally recognized brandLOCAL PRODUCTION, JOB CREATION:With backing from the South African government, and with an intention to produce the vehicles in South Africa,  the project will directly and indirectly benefit the local people and help to develop a nationEXPORT:With the goal to produce  and sell 50 000 vehicles a year starting end 2013, Optimal Energy has a taken an aggressive strategy and wants to make an impression on the global automotive industry
Optimal Energy’s Strategy:Optimal Energy, will be responsible for:development
industrialisation
production
marketing
distribution
retail

Joule, a spearhead for the south African Electric Vehicle and Battery industries - by Diana Blake

  • 1.
    Kobus Meiring, DianaBlake, September 081OPTIMAL ENERGY
  • 2.
    Diana Blake– May 2011Joule, a spearhead for the south African Electric Vehicle and Battery industries2
  • 3.
    What Challenges AreWe Facing?The 6.5billion people in the world today are consuming 1.4 earths, i.e. the global community is living 40% above its means
  • 4.
    The supply isfinite, but demand is growing exponentially – 9 billion by 2050, all striving to live like the first world
  • 5.
    We are borrowingfrom the future to prosper and grow today
  • 6.
    Our current wayof life is not sustainableDiana Blake, May 20113
  • 7.
  • 8.
    Risk Of Overshooting2°C – 50%!Diana Blake, May 20115
  • 9.
    Diana Blake, May 20116Threat: Energy SecurityBrent Crude on 11 May2011: $118/barrel
  • 10.
    A Massive Opportunity:“Renewableenergy, as a reaction to peak oil and climate change, is probably the most important economic boon that will occur in our lifetimes.” - Craig Shields“Renewables are nothing less than the re-industrialisation of the whole planet.” - John Doerr“No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come” - Victor HugoDiana Blake, May 20117
  • 11.
    A New Paradigmis needed:We need to use the present to improve the futureNature does not negotiate!Diana Blake, May 20118
  • 12.
    Current Transport Landscape~800,000,000vehicles in the world, doubling by 2030>50% of world live in cities, 75% of city transport is by carOverwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuelsTransport causes ~ 1/3 of energy CO2 emissions in the worldEnergy security concerns around crude oil worseningMarket insecurity -> price volatility -> economic instabilityAlternatives needed!Diana Blake, May 20119
  • 13.
    Market ForecastBy 2020,10% to 25% of global car production will be electric vehicles. (Frost & Sullivan, Renault, Betterplace, etc)
  • 14.
    Global car fleetin 2010 – 800 000 000
  • 15.
    Global car fleetin 2030 – 1500 000 000
  • 16.
    10 million willbe electric vehicles
  • 17.
    Globally, EV’s willnot only take market from the (ICE) fleet – it is mostly new growthDiana Blake, May 201110
  • 18.
  • 19.
    New subsidies forEV manufacturers
  • 20.
  • 21.
    Currently building thelargest Li-Ion battery manufacturing plant in the world (Matsushita Battery Industrial Co.)USA:1000 000 plug-ins by 2015,
  • 22.
    Advanced Technology VehiclesManufacturing Loan Program (ATVMLP): $25 billion in loansUK:
  • 23.
  • 24.
    London – freeparking, license, registration & exemption from congestion chargeISRAEL:70% tax on conventional cars, 10% tax on EV’sCHINA: EV’s one of four national 25 year projects, $15bn government fundingDENMARK:180% tax on conventional cars, 0% tax on EV’sSOUTH AFRICA:New Tax on Carbon Emissions
  • 25.
    Investment in OptimalEnergy for the development & production of the JouleIDC, DST have launched battery initiatives
  • 26.
    SABS have includedEV’S in committee
  • 27.
    IPAP2 to supportSA EVEUROPE:France – € 5000 rebate, France – Oneof world’s first Auto focused Li-Ion battery plants
  • 28.
    Monaco – €6000 rebate
  • 29.
    Spain – 1million EV’s by 2014
  • 30.
    Portugal – 20%of gov fleets, 1100 charging stnsThe Solution:Create a business & product that:Meets all sustainability goalsIs attractive to the mass marketIs affordable to the mainstreamMakes business sense nowMakes use of Legislation and IncentivesDiana Blake, May 201112
  • 31.
    Proven Technology1935: Thedecline of the electric vehicle was brought about and disappeared by 19351897: First vehicle with power steering – an EV. Electric self-starters 20 years beforeappearing in gas-powered cars1902: The Phaeton had a range of 18 miles, a top speed of 14 mph and cost $2,0001859: Gaston Plante invented rechargeable lead-acid batteries.1894 - 19351894 - 19351834: Thomas Davenport invents the battery electric car – batteries were not rechargeable1921: Federal Highway Act. By 1922, federal match (50%) for highway construction andrepair (for mail delivery).1900: All cars produced: 33% steam cars, 33% EV, and 33% gasoline cars1910: Electric vehicle production peaked1998: The Toyota RAV4 sport utility, the Honda EV Plus sedan, and the Chrysler EPIC minivan. These three vehicles were all equipped with advanced nickel metal hydride battery packs1990: U.S. 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment, the U.S. 1992 Energy Policy Act, and regulations issued by the California Air Resources Board (CARB)., several states have issued Zero Emission Vehicle requirements1990: GM shows their production EV initially named, Impact; later it was re-named the EV-12002: Toyota RAV4-EV retail sales; their estimated 2-year supply sold out in 8 months.1960 - 2003Source: Frost & Sullivan2000 : The Honda Insight is the first production vehicle to feature Honda's Integrated Motor Assist system. The first-generation Insight was produced from 2000 to 2006 as a three-door hatchback.1960’s: The first Battronic electric truck was delivered to the Potomac Edison Company in 1964. This truck was capable of speeds of 25 mph, a range of 62 miles and a payload of 2,500 pounds1996 - 97: GM begins production of the EV-1 . Toyota Prius hybrid gas-electric vehicle unveiled at the Tokyo Auto Show2003: ZEV Mandate weakened to allow ZEV credits for non-ZEV s. Toyota stops production of the RAV4-EV; Honda stops lease renewals of the EV-Plus; GM does the same for the EV-113Diana Blake, May 2011
  • 32.
    Diana Blake 20111414This is the biggest and fastest change in the history of the automobile
  • 33.
    Optimal Energy’s Vision:Toestablish and lead the electric vehicle industry in South Africa, and expand globally.Diana Blake May 2011
  • 34.
    Optimal Energy’s PrinciplesGREEN:Withthe convergence of three critical factors – climate change, pollution, and energy security, new types of urban transport must be developed and implemented in order to sustain the current way of lifeFORWARD THINKING, PROFITABLE:This convergence, together with advances in lithium battery technology, enables Optimal Energy to develop a business case giving a high return on investment, and to become a globally recognized brandLOCAL PRODUCTION, JOB CREATION:With backing from the South African government, and with an intention to produce the vehicles in South Africa, the project will directly and indirectly benefit the local people and help to develop a nationEXPORT:With the goal to produce and sell 50 000 vehicles a year starting end 2013, Optimal Energy has a taken an aggressive strategy and wants to make an impression on the global automotive industry
  • 35.
    Optimal Energy’s Strategy:OptimalEnergy, will be responsible for:development
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
    after sales supportof electric vehicles under the Optimal Energy’s brand OE focuses on EV specific areas optimising the use of existing suppliers and infrastructure in non-EV specific areas, to reduce capex, schedule and riskDiana Blake, May 201117
  • 42.
    The CompanyFounded in2005, based in Cape TownStrong Management Team:Hi-tech development (Denel, SALT)Automotive production, sales and marketing (Mercedes, BMW, MINI), First and second tier suppliers (Johnson Controls, Arvin Meritor, Schnelleke)109 Employees: >60% B, M or PhD EngineersWorld Class Associates: Universities, SABS, P3, EDAG, Zagato, Idiada, Hi-Tech Automotive Strong Government supportShareholders: Founders, DST-TIA, IDC, ELIDZ, ECDiana Blake, May 201118
  • 43.
    Designer Keith HelfetEducation:Graduated as mechanical engineer at the University of Cape Town
  • 44.
    Completed the mostprestigious automotive styling programme in the world – obtained Masters at the Royal College of Art in LondonExperience: Joined Jaguar in the UK and eventually became the chief stylistDesigned a number of high-performance cars, such as the iconic XJ-220 and the XK-180 and F-TypePosition: Consulting Design Director
  • 45.
    Optimal Energy’s MarketStrategyA globally competitive productThe ultimate city carIntroduced into a rapidly expanding new global market10 million electric vehicles by 2020Low volumes50 000 (can only be produced profitably at such low volume in SA – 5 Joules out of every 1000 EV’s sold globally)Unique customer experienceThe Joule Store, integrated distribution, after salesDiana Blake, May 201120
  • 47.
    The Ultimate CityCarSafe - UN ECE safety standards, Euro NCAP 5 star
  • 48.
    Beautiful - designedby Keith Helfet
  • 49.
    Spacious - fullfive-seater, largest boot in class
  • 50.
    Comfortable - quiet,no gear changes, single pedal driving
  • 51.
    Green - zeroemissions, regenerative braking, integrated PV panel
  • 52.
    Convenient - neverfill up, recharge at home, minimal maintenance
  • 53.
    Nimble - 0 to60km/h < 4.8s, 100-0km/h <3s, top speed 135km/hPractical - range 240km (NEDC) 300km (UDDS cycle)Sensible - Energy cost <10% of conventional fuelThe Ultimate Ownership ExperienceDiana Blake, May 201122
  • 54.
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  • 57.
  • 58.
  • 59.
    Joule InternationallyParis 2008:1,432,972Visitors90 World premiers of which 30 were powered by new energies2000 cars were exhibited13 000 journalists from 92 countriesHighest international profileWe have been approached by 32 distributors from 12 countriesGeneva 2010:Bigger than Paris
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62.
    “Best EV atthe Geneva Motor Show”The MarketPilot fleets in global target cities from 2011 until start of productionFirst plant, and volume launch in South Africa in 2015:General urban passenger market Corporate & rental fleetsGovernment (national, provincial, local) and state owned companiesExporting from 2015 (RHD, then LHD)Export growing to >80% of total salesUK first export market, then commonwealth, then EU, then the EastDiana Blake, May 201129
  • 63.
    Sales ForecastOE alongwith F&S, and other industry leaders considered political, economic, social and infrastructural factors in finding the most attractive markets by city:UK, Germany, Spain, Italy and France.
  • 64.
  • 65.
    GDP: US$350 billion
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 68.
    Nissan/RenaultDurban:Toyota SAEast London: Mercedes Benz Port Elizabeth: General MotorsVolkswagen470 000 CBUs
  • 69.
    US$ 15.32billion
  • 70.
  • 71.
  • 72.
    Sales: ~500 000per yearEconomic ActivityLocal OEMsVehicle ProductionSouth Africa
  • 73.
    East London IDZOver230 ha of prime industrial land fully serviced sites
  • 74.
    Proximity to transportnetworks (2,5 km from EL Airport and 6km from EL’s river port , rail link to all major South African cities)
  • 75.
    Direct access toexport and domestic marketsFurther Industry OpportunitiesElectric motor manufacturing• Battery cell manufacturing• Battery assembly and testing • Power electronics at automotive prices (chargers, high power relays, high power fuses, HV connectors, HV cables)• Electric compressor, peripheral components • Battery handling equipment• Automotive electronics (ECU’s, displays)Charging infrastructure & equipmentBattery financingEV testing & certification facilities for global OEM’sDiana Blake, May 201133
  • 76.
    South African policy:IPAP212.4.7 Commercialise South Africa’s electric carNature of the intervention: Provision of appropriate support to encourage local manufacture of EV’s and related components, installation of infrastructure for such EVs, creation of testing facilities, provision of demand stimulation mechanisms and public education on the use and benefits of alternative energy source vehicles.Economic rationale: Direct and positive spillover effects of developing a local electric vehicle coupled with the creation of the broader regulatory environment for such vehicles.Outcomes: Creation of a legislative and regulatory environment to allow the operation of electric vehicles, relevant testing infrastructure for electric vehicles, local manufacturing for domestic and global markets, initiation of charging infrastructure and educational campaigns on electric vehicles.Kobus Meiring, Diana Blake, 20113412.4.7 Commercialise South Africa’s electric carNature of the intervention: Provision of appropriate support to encourage local manufacture of EV’s and related components, installation of infrastructure for such EVs, creation of testing facilities, provision of demand stimulation mechanisms and public education on the use and benefits of alternative energy source vehicles.Economic rationale: Direct and positive spillover effects of developing a local electric vehicle coupled with the creation of the broader regulatory environment for such vehicles.Outcomes: Creation of a legislative and regulatory environment to allow the operation of electric vehicles, relevant testing infrastructure for electric vehicles, local manufacturing for domestic and global markets, initiation of charging infrastructure and educational campaigns on electric vehicles.Key Milestones1. 2010/11 Q3 Approval of investment support measure for the manufacture of the electric vehicle and components.2. 2010/11 Q3 Development of a Government position on the purchasing, demand stimulation, infrastructure for charging, testing facilities and public education regarding EVs3. 2011/12 Q1 Roll-out of public education on EVs4. 2011/12 Q2 Commissioning of the plant5. 2011/12 Q3 Development of testing facilities for EVs6. 2011/12 Q4 Commencement of plant construction7. 2013/14 Q4 Start of productionLead department: DTISupporting departments / agencies: DoT, DST, Provincial Governments and targeted MetrosEconomic impact:An estimated 160,000 direct jobs will be created in the industry in the next ten years. Investment levels exceeding R20 billion are expected to take place in the next four years with an expected further annual R3 billion for the following six years. Greater localisation of componentry will lead to an improvement in the trade balance.
  • 77.
    IPAP2Key Milestones1. 2010/11 Q3Approval of investment support measure for the manufacture of the electric vehicle and components.2. 2010/11 Q3 Development of a Government position on the purchasing, demand stimulation, infrastructure for charging, testing facilities and public education regarding EVs3. 2011/12 Q1 Roll-out of public education on EVs4. 2011/12 Q2 Commissioning of the plant5. 2011/12 Q3 Development of testing facilities for EVs6. 2011/12 Q4 Commencement of plant construction7. 2013/14 Q4 Start of productionLead department: DTISupporting departments / agencies: DoT, DST, Provincial Governments and targeted MetrosEconomic impact: An estimated 160,000 direct jobs will be created in the industry in the next ten years. Investment levels exceeding R20 billion are expected to take place in the next four years with an expected further annual R3 billion for the following six years. Greater localisation of componentry will lead to an improvement in the trade balance.Kobus Meiring, Diana Blake, 20113512.4.7 Commercialise South Africa’s electric carNature of the intervention: Provision of appropriate support to encourage local manufacture of EV’s and related components, installation of infrastructure for such EVs, creation of testing facilities, provision of demand stimulation mechanisms and public education on the use and benefits of alternative energy source vehicles.Economic rationale: Direct and positive spillover effects of developing a local electric vehicle coupled with the creation of the broader regulatory environment for such vehicles.Outcomes: Creation of a legislative and regulatory environment to allow the operation of electric vehicles, relevant testing infrastructure for electric vehicles, local manufacturing for domestic and global markets, initiation of charging infrastructure and educational campaigns on electric vehicles.Key Milestones1. 2010/11 Q3 Approval of investment support measure for the manufacture of the electric vehicle and components.2. 2010/11 Q3 Development of a Government position on the purchasing, demand stimulation, infrastructure for charging, testing facilities and public education regarding EVs3. 2011/12 Q1 Roll-out of public education on EVs4. 2011/12 Q2 Commissioning of the plant5. 2011/12 Q3 Development of testing facilities for EVs6. 2011/12 Q4 Commencement of plant construction7. 2013/14 Q4 Start of productionLead department: DTISupporting departments / agencies: DoT, DST, Provincial Governments and targeted MetrosEconomic impact:An estimated 160,000 direct jobs will be created in the industry in the next ten years. Investment levels exceeding R20 billion are expected to take place in the next four years with an expected further annual R3 billion for the following six years. Greater localisation of componentry will lead to an improvement in the trade balance.
  • 78.
  • 79.
    Optimal Energy’s currentstatusPrototype development complete (engineering prototypes, mules, display vehicles and marketing prototypes)
  • 80.
    Set up toproduce pilot fleet (5 per month)
  • 81.
    Starting industrialisation toreach start of production by 2015 – detailed plan, schedule, costing ~US$1.3b
  • 82.
    Cooperating with verystrong partners – EDAG, Idiada, Zagato, etc.Diana Blake, May 201137
  • 83.
    Optimal Energy’s currentstatus contd.Ready to explore relationship with OEM’s as strategic equity partners
  • 84.
    Designs, names, brandsprotected internationally
  • 85.
    Strong brand builtinternationally
  • 86.
    Unique retail modeldeveloped, can be rolled out internationally quickly and cost effectively
  • 87.
    Strong SA governmentsupport built – investment, IPAP2Diana Blake, May 201138
  • 88.
    Business HighlightsStart ofProduction in 2015Plant sized for 50 000 p.a. over 2 shiftsELIDZ is the preferred siteSales peak at ~73 000 units p.a. (production limit)Joule Generation 1 in production for 7 yearsTotal Investment Requirement is ~USD 1.3bnProjected IRR is 27.7%1 350 OE Assembly Jobs, 6 200 Indirect, 7 550 in TotalInvestment Commitment Needed in 2011
  • 89.
    Kobus Meiring, DianaBlake, September 0840OPTIMAL ENERGYThank You

Editor's Notes

  • #26 And Joule is going to help us do this