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Kobus Meiring, Diana Blake,  September 08 1 OPTIMAL ENERGY
 Diana Blake – May 2011 Joule, a spearhead for the south African Electric Vehicle and Battery industries 2
What Challenges Are We Facing? ,[object Object]
The supply is finite, but demand is growing exponentially – 9 billion by 2050, all striving to live like the first world
We are borrowing from the future to prosper and grow today
Our current way of life is not sustainableDiana Blake,  May 2011 3
Threat: Global Warming Diana Blake,  May 2011 4
Risk Of Overshooting 2°C – 50%! Diana Blake,  May 2011 5
Diana Blake,  May 2011 6 Threat:  Energy Security Brent Crude on 11 May2011: $118/barrel
A Massive Opportunity: “Renewable energy, as a reaction to peak oil and climate change, is probably the most important economic boon that will occur in our lifetimes.”  - Craig Shields “Renewables are nothing less than the re-industrialisation of the whole planet.”  - John Doerr “No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come” - Victor Hugo Diana Blake,  May 2011 7
A New Paradigm is needed: We need to use the present to improve the future Nature does not negotiate! Diana Blake,  May 2011 8
Current Transport Landscape ~800,000,000 vehicles in the world, doubling by 2030 >50% of world live in cities, 75% of city transport is by car Overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels Transport causes ~ 1/3 of energy CO2 emissions in the world Energy security concerns around crude oil worsening Market insecurity -> price volatility -> economic instability Alternatives needed! Diana Blake,  May 2011 9
Market Forecast ,[object Object]
Global car fleet in 2010 – 800 000 000
Global car fleet in 2030 – 1500 000 000
10 million will be electric vehicles
Globally, EV’s will not only take market from the (ICE) fleet – it is mostly new growthDiana Blake,  May 2011 10
Legislation & Incentives: JAPAN: ,[object Object]
New subsidies for EV manufacturers
Subsidised battery R&D
Currently building the largest Li-Ion battery manufacturing plant in the world (Matsushita Battery Industrial Co.)USA: ,[object Object]
Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program (ATVMLP): $25 billion in loans ,[object Object]
£5 000 subsidy
London – free parking, license, registration & exemption from congestion charge ISRAEL: 70% tax on conventional cars, 10% tax on EV’s CHINA: EV’s one of four national 25 year projects, $15bn government funding DENMARK: 180% tax on conventional cars, 0% tax on EV’s SOUTH AFRICA: ,[object Object]
Investment in Optimal Energy for the development & production of the Joule ,[object Object]
SABS have included EV’S in committee
IPAP2 to support SA EVEUROPE: ,[object Object]
Monaco – €6 000 rebate
Spain – 1 million EV’s by 2014
Portugal – 20% of gov fleets, 1100 charging stns,[object Object]
Proven Technology 1935: The decline of the electric vehicle was brought about and disappeared by 1935 1897: First vehicle with power steering – an EV. Electric self-starters 20 years before appearing in gas-powered cars 1902: The Phaeton had a range of 18 miles, a top speed of 14 mph and cost $2,000 1859: Gaston Plante invented rechargeable lead-acid batteries. 1894 - 1935 1894 - 1935 1834: Thomas Davenport invents the battery electric car – batteries were not rechargeable 1921: Federal Highway Act. By 1922, federal match (50%) for highway construction and repair (for mail delivery). 1900: All cars produced: 33% steam cars, 33% EV, and 33% gasoline cars 1910: Electric vehicle production peaked 1998: The Toyota RAV4 sport utility, the Honda EV Plus sedan, and the Chrysler EPIC minivan. These three vehicles were all equipped with advanced nickel metal hydride battery packs 1990: U.S. 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment, the U.S. 1992 Energy Policy Act, and regulations issued by the California Air Resources Board (CARB)., several states have issued Zero Emission Vehicle requirements 1990: GM shows their production EV initially named, Impact; later it was re-named the EV-1 2002: Toyota RAV4-EV retail sales; their estimated 2-year supply sold out in 8 months. 1960 - 2003 Source: Frost & Sullivan 2000 : The Honda Insight  is the first production vehicle to feature Honda's Integrated Motor Assist system. The first-generation Insight was produced from 2000 to 2006 as a three-door hatchback. 1960’s: The first Battronic electric truck was delivered to the Potomac Edison Company in 1964. This truck was capable of speeds of 25 mph, a range of 62 miles and a payload of 2,500 pounds 1996 - 97: GM begins production of the EV-1 . Toyota Prius hybrid gas-electric vehicle unveiled at the Tokyo Auto Show 2003: ZEV Mandate weakened to allow ZEV credits for non-ZEV s. Toyota stops production of the RAV4-EV; Honda stops lease renewals of the EV-Plus; GM does the same for the EV-1 13 Diana Blake,  May 2011
Diana Blake  2011 14 14 This is the biggest and fastest change in the history of the automobile
Optimal Energy’s Vision: To establish and lead the electric vehicle industry  in South Africa, and expand globally. Diana Blake  May 2011
Optimal Energy’s Principles GREEN: With the convergence of three critical factors – climate change, pollution, and energy security, new types of urban transport must be developed and implemented in order to sustain the current way of life FORWARD THINKING, PROFITABLE: This convergence, together with advances in lithium battery technology, enables Optimal Energy to develop a business case giving a high return on investment, and to become a globally recognized brand LOCAL PRODUCTION, JOB CREATION: With backing from the South African government, and with an intention to produce the vehicles in South Africa,  the project will directly and indirectly benefit the local people and help to develop a nation EXPORT: With the goal to produce  and sell 50 000 vehicles a year starting end 2013, Optimal Energy has a taken an aggressive strategy and wants to make an impression on the global automotive industry
Optimal Energy’s Strategy: Optimal Energy, will be responsible for: ,[object Object]
industrialisation
production
marketing
distribution
retail

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Joule, a spearhead for the south African Electric Vehicle and Battery industries - by Diana Blake

  • 1. Kobus Meiring, Diana Blake, September 08 1 OPTIMAL ENERGY
  • 2. Diana Blake – May 2011 Joule, a spearhead for the south African Electric Vehicle and Battery industries 2
  • 3.
  • 4. The supply is finite, but demand is growing exponentially – 9 billion by 2050, all striving to live like the first world
  • 5. We are borrowing from the future to prosper and grow today
  • 6. Our current way of life is not sustainableDiana Blake, May 2011 3
  • 7. Threat: Global Warming Diana Blake, May 2011 4
  • 8. Risk Of Overshooting 2°C – 50%! Diana Blake, May 2011 5
  • 9. Diana Blake, May 2011 6 Threat: Energy Security Brent Crude on 11 May2011: $118/barrel
  • 10. A Massive Opportunity: “Renewable energy, as a reaction to peak oil and climate change, is probably the most important economic boon that will occur in our lifetimes.” - Craig Shields “Renewables are nothing less than the re-industrialisation of the whole planet.” - John Doerr “No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come” - Victor Hugo Diana Blake, May 2011 7
  • 11. A New Paradigm is needed: We need to use the present to improve the future Nature does not negotiate! Diana Blake, May 2011 8
  • 12. Current Transport Landscape ~800,000,000 vehicles in the world, doubling by 2030 >50% of world live in cities, 75% of city transport is by car Overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels Transport causes ~ 1/3 of energy CO2 emissions in the world Energy security concerns around crude oil worsening Market insecurity -> price volatility -> economic instability Alternatives needed! Diana Blake, May 2011 9
  • 13.
  • 14. Global car fleet in 2010 – 800 000 000
  • 15. Global car fleet in 2030 – 1500 000 000
  • 16. 10 million will be electric vehicles
  • 17. Globally, EV’s will not only take market from the (ICE) fleet – it is mostly new growthDiana Blake, May 2011 10
  • 18.
  • 19. New subsidies for EV manufacturers
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. SABS have included EV’S in committee
  • 27.
  • 28. Monaco – €6 000 rebate
  • 29. Spain – 1 million EV’s by 2014
  • 30.
  • 31. Proven Technology 1935: The decline of the electric vehicle was brought about and disappeared by 1935 1897: First vehicle with power steering – an EV. Electric self-starters 20 years before appearing in gas-powered cars 1902: The Phaeton had a range of 18 miles, a top speed of 14 mph and cost $2,000 1859: Gaston Plante invented rechargeable lead-acid batteries. 1894 - 1935 1894 - 1935 1834: Thomas Davenport invents the battery electric car – batteries were not rechargeable 1921: Federal Highway Act. By 1922, federal match (50%) for highway construction and repair (for mail delivery). 1900: All cars produced: 33% steam cars, 33% EV, and 33% gasoline cars 1910: Electric vehicle production peaked 1998: The Toyota RAV4 sport utility, the Honda EV Plus sedan, and the Chrysler EPIC minivan. These three vehicles were all equipped with advanced nickel metal hydride battery packs 1990: U.S. 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment, the U.S. 1992 Energy Policy Act, and regulations issued by the California Air Resources Board (CARB)., several states have issued Zero Emission Vehicle requirements 1990: GM shows their production EV initially named, Impact; later it was re-named the EV-1 2002: Toyota RAV4-EV retail sales; their estimated 2-year supply sold out in 8 months. 1960 - 2003 Source: Frost & Sullivan 2000 : The Honda Insight is the first production vehicle to feature Honda's Integrated Motor Assist system. The first-generation Insight was produced from 2000 to 2006 as a three-door hatchback. 1960’s: The first Battronic electric truck was delivered to the Potomac Edison Company in 1964. This truck was capable of speeds of 25 mph, a range of 62 miles and a payload of 2,500 pounds 1996 - 97: GM begins production of the EV-1 . Toyota Prius hybrid gas-electric vehicle unveiled at the Tokyo Auto Show 2003: ZEV Mandate weakened to allow ZEV credits for non-ZEV s. Toyota stops production of the RAV4-EV; Honda stops lease renewals of the EV-Plus; GM does the same for the EV-1 13 Diana Blake, May 2011
  • 32. Diana Blake 2011 14 14 This is the biggest and fastest change in the history of the automobile
  • 33. Optimal Energy’s Vision: To establish and lead the electric vehicle industry in South Africa, and expand globally. Diana Blake May 2011
  • 34. Optimal Energy’s Principles GREEN: With the convergence of three critical factors – climate change, pollution, and energy security, new types of urban transport must be developed and implemented in order to sustain the current way of life FORWARD THINKING, PROFITABLE: This convergence, together with advances in lithium battery technology, enables Optimal Energy to develop a business case giving a high return on investment, and to become a globally recognized brand LOCAL PRODUCTION, JOB CREATION: With backing from the South African government, and with an intention to produce the vehicles in South Africa, the project will directly and indirectly benefit the local people and help to develop a nation EXPORT: With the goal to produce and sell 50 000 vehicles a year starting end 2013, Optimal Energy has a taken an aggressive strategy and wants to make an impression on the global automotive industry
  • 35.
  • 41. after sales support of electric vehicles under the Optimal Energy’s brand OE focuses on EV specific areas optimising the use of existing suppliers and infrastructure in non-EV specific areas, to reduce capex, schedule and risk Diana Blake, May 2011 17
  • 42. The Company Founded in 2005, based in Cape Town Strong Management Team: Hi-tech development (Denel, SALT) Automotive production, sales and marketing (Mercedes, BMW, MINI), First and second tier suppliers (Johnson Controls, Arvin Meritor, Schnelleke) 109 Employees: >60% B, M or PhD Engineers World Class Associates: Universities, SABS, P3, EDAG, Zagato, Idiada, Hi-Tech Automotive Strong Government support Shareholders: Founders, DST-TIA, IDC, ELIDZ, EC Diana Blake, May 2011 18
  • 43.
  • 44. Completed the most prestigious automotive styling programme in the world – obtained Masters at the Royal College of Art in LondonExperience: Joined Jaguar in the UK and eventually became the chief stylist Designed a number of high-performance cars, such as the iconic XJ-220 and the XK-180 and F-Type Position: Consulting Design Director
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48. Beautiful - designed by Keith Helfet
  • 49. Spacious - full five-seater, largest boot in class
  • 50. Comfortable - quiet, no gear changes, single pedal driving
  • 51. Green - zero emissions, regenerative braking, integrated PV panel
  • 52. Convenient - never fill up, recharge at home, minimal maintenance
  • 53. Nimble - 0 to 60km/h < 4.8s, 100-0km/h <3s, top speed 135km/hPractical - range 240km (NEDC) 300km (UDDS cycle) Sensible - Energy cost <10% of conventional fuel The Ultimate Ownership Experience Diana Blake, May 2011 22
  • 55.
  • 56. Joule
  • 58. Joule Marketing Fleet Diana Blake, May 2011 27
  • 59.
  • 62.
  • 63. Sales Forecast OE along with F&S, and other industry leaders considered political, economic, social and infrastructural factors in finding the most attractive markets by city: UK, Germany, Spain, Italy and France.
  • 64.
  • 65. GDP: US$ 350 billion
  • 66.
  • 68.
  • 69. US$ 15.32 billion
  • 72. Sales: ~500 000 per yearEconomic Activity Local OEMs Vehicle Production South Africa
  • 73.
  • 74. Proximity to transport networks (2,5 km from EL Airport and 6km from EL’s river port , rail link to all major South African cities)
  • 75.
  • 76. South African policy: IPAP2 12.4.7 Commercialise South Africa’s electric car Nature of the intervention: Provision of appropriate support to encourage local manufacture of EV’s and related components, installation of infrastructure for such EVs, creation of testing facilities, provision of demand stimulation mechanisms and public education on the use and benefits of alternative energy source vehicles. Economic rationale: Direct and positive spillover effects of developing a local electric vehicle coupled with the creation of the broader regulatory environment for such vehicles. Outcomes: Creation of a legislative and regulatory environment to allow the operation of electric vehicles, relevant testing infrastructure for electric vehicles, local manufacturing for domestic and global markets, initiation of charging infrastructure and educational campaigns on electric vehicles. Kobus Meiring, Diana Blake, 2011 34 12.4.7 Commercialise South Africa’s electric car Nature of the intervention: Provision of appropriate support to encourage local manufacture of EV’s and related components, installation of infrastructure for such EVs, creation of testing facilities, provision of demand stimulation mechanisms and public education on the use and benefits of alternative energy source vehicles. Economic rationale: Direct and positive spillover effects of developing a local electric vehicle coupled with the creation of the broader regulatory environment for such vehicles. Outcomes: Creation of a legislative and regulatory environment to allow the operation of electric vehicles, relevant testing infrastructure for electric vehicles, local manufacturing for domestic and global markets, initiation of charging infrastructure and educational campaigns on electric vehicles. Key Milestones 1. 2010/11 Q3 Approval of investment support measure for the manufacture of the electric vehicle and components. 2. 2010/11 Q3 Development of a Government position on the purchasing, demand stimulation, infrastructure for charging, testing facilities and public education regarding EVs 3. 2011/12 Q1 Roll-out of public education on EVs 4. 2011/12 Q2 Commissioning of the plant 5. 2011/12 Q3 Development of testing facilities for EVs 6. 2011/12 Q4 Commencement of plant construction 7. 2013/14 Q4 Start of production Lead department: DTI Supporting departments / agencies: DoT, DST, Provincial Governments and targeted Metros Economic impact: An estimated 160,000 direct jobs will be created in the industry in the next ten years. Investment levels exceeding R20 billion are expected to take place in the next four years with an expected further annual R3 billion for the following six years. Greater localisation of componentry will lead to an improvement in the trade balance.
  • 77. IPAP2 Key Milestones 1. 2010/11 Q3 Approval of investment support measure for the manufacture of the electric vehicle and components. 2. 2010/11 Q3 Development of a Government position on the purchasing, demand stimulation, infrastructure for charging, testing facilities and public education regarding EVs 3. 2011/12 Q1 Roll-out of public education on EVs 4. 2011/12 Q2 Commissioning of the plant 5. 2011/12 Q3 Development of testing facilities for EVs 6. 2011/12 Q4 Commencement of plant construction 7. 2013/14 Q4 Start of production Lead department: DTI Supporting departments / agencies: DoT, DST, Provincial Governments and targeted Metros Economic impact: An estimated 160,000 direct jobs will be created in the industry in the next ten years. Investment levels exceeding R20 billion are expected to take place in the next four years with an expected further annual R3 billion for the following six years. Greater localisation of componentry will lead to an improvement in the trade balance. Kobus Meiring, Diana Blake, 2011 35 12.4.7 Commercialise South Africa’s electric car Nature of the intervention: Provision of appropriate support to encourage local manufacture of EV’s and related components, installation of infrastructure for such EVs, creation of testing facilities, provision of demand stimulation mechanisms and public education on the use and benefits of alternative energy source vehicles. Economic rationale: Direct and positive spillover effects of developing a local electric vehicle coupled with the creation of the broader regulatory environment for such vehicles. Outcomes: Creation of a legislative and regulatory environment to allow the operation of electric vehicles, relevant testing infrastructure for electric vehicles, local manufacturing for domestic and global markets, initiation of charging infrastructure and educational campaigns on electric vehicles. Key Milestones 1. 2010/11 Q3 Approval of investment support measure for the manufacture of the electric vehicle and components. 2. 2010/11 Q3 Development of a Government position on the purchasing, demand stimulation, infrastructure for charging, testing facilities and public education regarding EVs 3. 2011/12 Q1 Roll-out of public education on EVs 4. 2011/12 Q2 Commissioning of the plant 5. 2011/12 Q3 Development of testing facilities for EVs 6. 2011/12 Q4 Commencement of plant construction 7. 2013/14 Q4 Start of production Lead department: DTI Supporting departments / agencies: DoT, DST, Provincial Governments and targeted Metros Economic impact: An estimated 160,000 direct jobs will be created in the industry in the next ten years. Investment levels exceeding R20 billion are expected to take place in the next four years with an expected further annual R3 billion for the following six years. Greater localisation of componentry will lead to an improvement in the trade balance.
  • 79.
  • 80. Set up to produce pilot fleet (5 per month)
  • 81. Starting industrialisation to reach start of production by 2015 – detailed plan, schedule, costing ~US$1.3b
  • 82. Cooperating with very strong partners – EDAG, Idiada, Zagato, etc.Diana Blake, May 2011 37
  • 83.
  • 84. Designs, names, brands protected internationally
  • 85. Strong brand built internationally
  • 86. Unique retail model developed, can be rolled out internationally quickly and cost effectively
  • 87. Strong SA government support built – investment, IPAP2Diana Blake, May 2011 38
  • 88. Business Highlights Start of Production in 2015 Plant sized for 50 000 p.a. over 2 shifts ELIDZ is the preferred site Sales peak at ~73 000 units p.a. (production limit) Joule Generation 1 in production for 7 years Total Investment Requirement is ~USD 1.3bn Projected IRR is 27.7% 1 350 OE Assembly Jobs, 6 200 Indirect, 7 550 in Total Investment Commitment Needed in 2011
  • 89. Kobus Meiring, Diana Blake, September 08 40 OPTIMAL ENERGY Thank You

Editor's Notes

  1. And Joule is going to help us do this