In the slides present a structured description of the methods that can be used to calculate the delta for an asian option. Only European options are considered. The reference list has added as the last slide. Enjoy the presentation!
The Vasicek model is one of the earliest stochastic models for modeling the term structure of interest rates. It represents the movement of interest rates as a function of market risk, time, and the equilibrium value the rate tends to revert to. This document discusses parameter estimation techniques for the Vasicek one-factor model using least squares regression and maximum likelihood estimation on historical interest rate data. It also covers simulating the term structure and pricing zero-coupon bonds under the Vasicek model. The two-factor Vasicek model is introduced as an extension of the one-factor model.
The document discusses the determinants of option price and the Greeks - Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, and Rho. It explains that these Greeks measure how sensitive an option's price is to changes in the underlying asset's price, volatility, time to expiration, and interest rates. Specifically, Delta measures change in option price for a $1 change in the underlying, Gamma measures rate of change of Delta, Vega measures change for a 1% volatility change, Theta measures daily time decay, and Rho measures change for a 1% interest rate change. Understanding how the Greeks change is important for risk management and making informed options trading decisions.
Game theory is the study of strategic decision making. It involves analyzing interactions between players where the outcome for each player depends on the actions of all players. Key concepts in game theory include Nash equilibrium, where each player's strategy is the best response to the other players' strategies, and Prisoner's Dilemma, where the non-cooperative equilibrium results in a worse outcome for both players than if they had cooperated. Game theory is applied in economics, political science, biology, and many other fields to model strategic interactions.
Stochastic Control/Reinforcement Learning for Optimal Market MakingAshwin Rao
Optimal Market Making is the problem of dynamically adjusting bid and ask prices/sizes on the Limit Order Book so as to maximize Expected Utility of Gains. This is a stochastic control problem that can be tackled with classical Dynamic Programming techniques or with Reinforcement Learning (using a market-learnt simulator)
This document provides an overview of Ashwin Rao's presentation on the fundamental theorems of asset pricing. It begins with an outline of the topics to be covered, including an intuitive understanding using a simple single-period setting. It then covers portfolios and arbitrage, defines the risk-neutral probability measure, and states the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing relating arbitrage and the existence of a risk-neutral measure. Derivatives, replicating portfolios, and hedges are introduced. The second fundamental theorem is presented relating market completeness to a unique risk-neutral measure. Derivatives pricing is discussed based on replication and risk-neutral measures. Examples of incomplete markets with multiple risk-neutral measures are briefly mentioned.
This document provides an overview of elementary ruin theory, which models the probability of ruin for an insurance company. It begins with definitions of key concepts like the surplus process and probability of ruin. It then describes modeling the aggregate claims process as a compound Poisson process. It derives expressions for the expected value and variance of the aggregate claims process. The document also introduces the adjustment coefficient R and relative security loading θ, which are important variables for analyzing the probability of ruin. The overall document lays out basic notation, terminology, and modeling approaches for ruin theory.
The Vasicek model is one of the earliest stochastic models for modeling the term structure of interest rates. It represents the movement of interest rates as a function of market risk, time, and the equilibrium value the rate tends to revert to. This document discusses parameter estimation techniques for the Vasicek one-factor model using least squares regression and maximum likelihood estimation on historical interest rate data. It also covers simulating the term structure and pricing zero-coupon bonds under the Vasicek model. The two-factor Vasicek model is introduced as an extension of the one-factor model.
The document discusses the determinants of option price and the Greeks - Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, and Rho. It explains that these Greeks measure how sensitive an option's price is to changes in the underlying asset's price, volatility, time to expiration, and interest rates. Specifically, Delta measures change in option price for a $1 change in the underlying, Gamma measures rate of change of Delta, Vega measures change for a 1% volatility change, Theta measures daily time decay, and Rho measures change for a 1% interest rate change. Understanding how the Greeks change is important for risk management and making informed options trading decisions.
Game theory is the study of strategic decision making. It involves analyzing interactions between players where the outcome for each player depends on the actions of all players. Key concepts in game theory include Nash equilibrium, where each player's strategy is the best response to the other players' strategies, and Prisoner's Dilemma, where the non-cooperative equilibrium results in a worse outcome for both players than if they had cooperated. Game theory is applied in economics, political science, biology, and many other fields to model strategic interactions.
Stochastic Control/Reinforcement Learning for Optimal Market MakingAshwin Rao
Optimal Market Making is the problem of dynamically adjusting bid and ask prices/sizes on the Limit Order Book so as to maximize Expected Utility of Gains. This is a stochastic control problem that can be tackled with classical Dynamic Programming techniques or with Reinforcement Learning (using a market-learnt simulator)
This document provides an overview of Ashwin Rao's presentation on the fundamental theorems of asset pricing. It begins with an outline of the topics to be covered, including an intuitive understanding using a simple single-period setting. It then covers portfolios and arbitrage, defines the risk-neutral probability measure, and states the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing relating arbitrage and the existence of a risk-neutral measure. Derivatives, replicating portfolios, and hedges are introduced. The second fundamental theorem is presented relating market completeness to a unique risk-neutral measure. Derivatives pricing is discussed based on replication and risk-neutral measures. Examples of incomplete markets with multiple risk-neutral measures are briefly mentioned.
This document provides an overview of elementary ruin theory, which models the probability of ruin for an insurance company. It begins with definitions of key concepts like the surplus process and probability of ruin. It then describes modeling the aggregate claims process as a compound Poisson process. It derives expressions for the expected value and variance of the aggregate claims process. The document also introduces the adjustment coefficient R and relative security loading θ, which are important variables for analyzing the probability of ruin. The overall document lays out basic notation, terminology, and modeling approaches for ruin theory.
The document discusses the simplex method for solving linear programming problems. It explains that the simplex method is an iterative procedure developed by George Dantzig in 1946 to systematically examine the vertices of the feasible region to determine the optimal value of the objective function. The document then provides steps for applying the simplex method, including preparing the problem in standard form, creating an initial simplex tableau, selecting pivot columns and rows, and using row operations to solve for an optimal solution. An example problem is presented and solved using the simplex method in 3 iterations to find the optimal values.
Futures and Options report on Advance Options StrategiesChandan Pahelwani
The document discusses various options strategies including money spreads, straddles, and strangles. It provides examples of each strategy using hypothetical stocks and options prices. For money spreads, it shows how an investor can construct a bullish spread by buying a lower strike call and writing a higher strike call. For straddles and strangles, it gives examples of long positions involving both a put and call with the same expiration date but different strike prices. The examples calculate the potential profits and losses from these strategies under different stock price scenarios.
The exponential moving average (EMA) assigns more weight to recent data points compared to older data points. It is calculated by taking the previous EMA value and adding a percentage of the difference between the current closing price and the previous EMA. This percentage decreases exponentially as the data points get older. An example calculates the 10-day EMA for stock closing prices, applying an 18.18% weighting to the most recent price. The EMA responds more quickly to recent price changes than the simple moving average but can also generate false signals about market trends.
This document provides an overview of options strategies. It defines derivatives and describes how they derive value from underlying assets. Common types of derivatives are discussed including futures and options. Basic option positions like calls and puts are explained. Popular options strategies like bull call spreads, bear put spreads, and butterfly spreads are defined and examples are provided to illustrate how the payoffs work. Long straddles and short straddles are also introduced as strategies used when volatility is expected to increase or decrease. Key option terms are defined throughout like premium, strike price, expiration date, and different option types.
The document discusses Gomory's Cutting Plane Method for solving integer programming problems (IPPs). It begins by introducing all-integer linear programs (AILPs) and mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs). It then describes how Gomory's method works by taking the linear programming (LP) relaxation of an IPP, obtaining the fractional solution, deriving a cutting plane constraint, and adding it to strengthen the LP relaxation until an optimal integer solution is found. The key steps are to decompose the LP into basic and non-basic variables, derive cutting plane coefficients from the LP tableau, and add constraints of the form [yij]xj + xBi - yi0 ≤ 0 to eliminate fractional solutions.
Research study on selected stock listed in NSE through Technical Analysis,
which includes 15 stock as sample and done sector index wise Comparative analysis. Understanding the stock by 2 leading indicator which are RSI & Stochastic. Which will have the short investor to decide to Buy and Sell the stock by using Chart and there factor affecting stocks.
Download full content:
contact:
Meka Santosh
Email:santosh.ramulu@gmail.com
This document introduces the concepts of risk-neutral valuation and derivative pricing. It defines derivative securities as contracts contingent on the value of an underlying asset. The key questions in pricing derivatives are determining the expected payoff and the information required to calculate it. The document explains how replication arguments and preventing arbitrage opportunities can be used to derive fair prices for forwards, calls, puts and other derivatives under the risk-neutral measure, where the expected return on the underlying asset is equal to the risk-free rate. Relaxing simplifying assumptions, more advanced stochastic models can also be used for risk-neutral pricing.
NOTE:Download this file to preview as the Slideshare preview does not display it properly.
This is an introduction to Linear Programming and a few real world applications are included.
Volatility trading strategies seek to profit from changes in a asset's volatility. Volatility measures how much the price of an asset fluctuates over time. There are several types of volatility strategies including volatility dispersion trading which buys options on index components and sells options on the overall index, volatility spreads which use option combinations to profit from different implied volatilities, and gamma trading which aims to benefit from unexpected events causing large price moves. Volatility is important for options as their pricing depends on assumptions about future volatility.
The document discusses various options strategies and their payoffs:
- Covered calls involve buying a stock and writing a call on it. This limits upside gains in exchange for receiving the premium to reduce risk.
- Protective puts involve buying a stock and purchasing a put on it. This protects against stock price declines by ensuring a minimum sale price while allowing participation in upside gains.
- Straddles involve buying both a put and call with the same strike price. This bets that the stock will move substantially in either direction.
- Spreads, like vertical spreads, involve buying and selling options of the same type but different strike prices or expiration dates to limit risk and gain from smaller stock movements.
The document contains biographical and contact information for Dr. Atif Shahzad, along with slides from one of his lectures on optimization models and the simplex method. The slides cover converting linear programs to standard form, basic and non-basic variables, basic feasible solutions, optimality and feasibility conditions, and working through an example using the simplex method in 4 steps - choosing an entering variable, leaving variable, updating the pivot row and other rows, and iterating until optimality is reached.
1) Options have intrinsic value, which is the difference between the stock price and exercise price if in the money, and time value, which is any additional premium above intrinsic value.
2) Key variables that affect option pricing are the stock price, exercise price, time to expiration, volatility, interest rates, and dividends. Higher stock prices and volatility increase call values while lowering put values.
3) Put-call parity states that the call price plus the present value of the strike price must equal the put price plus the stock price.
Game theory is a mathematical discipline that investigates the interaction of multiple, interest driven and rational parties. In other words: Most of our business and social interactions. In this talk we will define some basic game theory terms, talk about some of the more iconic games that have been developed by the discipline and see how they apply to most of our product strategy decisions. We’ll talk about Prisoner’s Dilemma, Rock Paper Scissors and the Game of Chicken – describe business scenarios where they’re applicable and come up with the best solutions, together!
Linear programming using the simplex methodShivek Khurana
This document discusses linear programming and provides an example of using the simplex method to solve a crop plantation optimization problem. It begins with a brief history of linear programming and describes how the simplex method works by introducing slack variables and performing row operations to iteratively find an optimal solution. It then presents a crop plantation problem involving allocating land between potatoes and ladyfingers to maximize profit while satisfying pesticide, manure and land constraints. The simplex method is applied step-by-step to arrive at the optimal solution that allocates 1.42 acres to ladyfingers and yields a maximum profit of 8.57.
The document discusses moving averages, which are technical indicators used to analyze financial data trends. A moving average calculates the average price of a security over a specified period of time to smooth out price fluctuations and make trends easier to identify. There are two main types: simple moving averages, which give equal weight to all data points; and exponential moving averages, which give more weight to recent data points. Moving averages are used to determine the direction of the current trend and generate buy/sell signals when short-term averages cross above or below long-term averages. Popular periods used include 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 days.
Derivatives are financial instruments whose value is derived from an underlying asset. The four main types of derivatives are forwards, futures, options, and swaps. Forwards and futures are contracts to buy or sell an asset at a future date, while options give the right but not obligation to buy or sell. Swaps involve exchanging cash flows of one party's financial instrument for those of another party. Derivatives are traded both over-the-counter and on exchanges, and provide economic benefits like risk management and market liquidity.
The document discusses option pricing models. It covers the Binomial model and the Black-Scholes model. The Black-Scholes model assumes the stock price follows a geometric Brownian motion and uses a partial differential equation to derive a closed-form solution for pricing European stock options. It requires parameters such as the stock price, exercise price, risk-free interest rate, time to maturity, and volatility. The model provides a theoretical fair value for options.
This document provides an introduction to stochastic calculus. It begins with a review of key probability concepts such as the Lebesgue integral, change of measure, and the Radon-Nikodym derivative. It then discusses information and σ-algebras, including filtrations and adapted processes. Conditional expectation is explained. The document concludes by introducing random walks and their connection to Brownian motion through the scaled random walk process. Key concepts such as martingales and quadratic variation are defined.
The document discusses key concepts in game theory including:
- Players are the competitors in a game which can be individuals, groups, or organizations.
- Games can involve two players (two-person game) or more than two players (n-person game).
- Games where the sum of gains and losses is zero are called zero-sum games, all other games are non-zero-sum.
- Strategies are the decisions or actions players take. Pure strategies commit to one action, while mixed strategies randomly choose between actions.
- Payoff matrices represent strategy outcomes and the quantitative payoffs/satisfaction received by players.
The document introduces the binomial option pricing model, which values options by allowing the underlying asset price to move up or down by a set percentage at each time period. It assumes two possible prices, constant interest rates over the life of the option, and perfect markets. The model is then demonstrated by calculating the possible up and down prices of a stock and related call option values at the next time period, given inputs like the current stock price, interest rates, and strike price.
This document describes pricing options using lattice models, specifically binomial trees. It provides details on:
1) Using a binomial tree to price a European call option by replicating the option payoff at each node.
2) Matching the moments of the binomial and Black-Scholes models to derive the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein (CRR) binomial tree.
3) Implementing the CRR model in C++ to price European call and put options via backward induction on the tree.
Traveling salesman problem: Game Scheduling Problem Solution: Ant Colony Opti...Soumen Santra
The document describes using ant colony optimization to solve two traveling salesman problems.
For the first problem, it finds the shortest route between 4 nodes on a graph. It evaluates the cost of all possible routes and determines that the optimal path is 1-2-4-3-1 with a cost of 80.
For the second problem, it schedules games among 5 teams playing 3 types of games. It constructs a weight matrix based on how many games each team participates in. It evaluates all possible paths and determines the optimal schedules are either G1-G2-G3 or G3-G2-G1.
The document discusses the simplex method for solving linear programming problems. It explains that the simplex method is an iterative procedure developed by George Dantzig in 1946 to systematically examine the vertices of the feasible region to determine the optimal value of the objective function. The document then provides steps for applying the simplex method, including preparing the problem in standard form, creating an initial simplex tableau, selecting pivot columns and rows, and using row operations to solve for an optimal solution. An example problem is presented and solved using the simplex method in 3 iterations to find the optimal values.
Futures and Options report on Advance Options StrategiesChandan Pahelwani
The document discusses various options strategies including money spreads, straddles, and strangles. It provides examples of each strategy using hypothetical stocks and options prices. For money spreads, it shows how an investor can construct a bullish spread by buying a lower strike call and writing a higher strike call. For straddles and strangles, it gives examples of long positions involving both a put and call with the same expiration date but different strike prices. The examples calculate the potential profits and losses from these strategies under different stock price scenarios.
The exponential moving average (EMA) assigns more weight to recent data points compared to older data points. It is calculated by taking the previous EMA value and adding a percentage of the difference between the current closing price and the previous EMA. This percentage decreases exponentially as the data points get older. An example calculates the 10-day EMA for stock closing prices, applying an 18.18% weighting to the most recent price. The EMA responds more quickly to recent price changes than the simple moving average but can also generate false signals about market trends.
This document provides an overview of options strategies. It defines derivatives and describes how they derive value from underlying assets. Common types of derivatives are discussed including futures and options. Basic option positions like calls and puts are explained. Popular options strategies like bull call spreads, bear put spreads, and butterfly spreads are defined and examples are provided to illustrate how the payoffs work. Long straddles and short straddles are also introduced as strategies used when volatility is expected to increase or decrease. Key option terms are defined throughout like premium, strike price, expiration date, and different option types.
The document discusses Gomory's Cutting Plane Method for solving integer programming problems (IPPs). It begins by introducing all-integer linear programs (AILPs) and mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs). It then describes how Gomory's method works by taking the linear programming (LP) relaxation of an IPP, obtaining the fractional solution, deriving a cutting plane constraint, and adding it to strengthen the LP relaxation until an optimal integer solution is found. The key steps are to decompose the LP into basic and non-basic variables, derive cutting plane coefficients from the LP tableau, and add constraints of the form [yij]xj + xBi - yi0 ≤ 0 to eliminate fractional solutions.
Research study on selected stock listed in NSE through Technical Analysis,
which includes 15 stock as sample and done sector index wise Comparative analysis. Understanding the stock by 2 leading indicator which are RSI & Stochastic. Which will have the short investor to decide to Buy and Sell the stock by using Chart and there factor affecting stocks.
Download full content:
contact:
Meka Santosh
Email:santosh.ramulu@gmail.com
This document introduces the concepts of risk-neutral valuation and derivative pricing. It defines derivative securities as contracts contingent on the value of an underlying asset. The key questions in pricing derivatives are determining the expected payoff and the information required to calculate it. The document explains how replication arguments and preventing arbitrage opportunities can be used to derive fair prices for forwards, calls, puts and other derivatives under the risk-neutral measure, where the expected return on the underlying asset is equal to the risk-free rate. Relaxing simplifying assumptions, more advanced stochastic models can also be used for risk-neutral pricing.
NOTE:Download this file to preview as the Slideshare preview does not display it properly.
This is an introduction to Linear Programming and a few real world applications are included.
Volatility trading strategies seek to profit from changes in a asset's volatility. Volatility measures how much the price of an asset fluctuates over time. There are several types of volatility strategies including volatility dispersion trading which buys options on index components and sells options on the overall index, volatility spreads which use option combinations to profit from different implied volatilities, and gamma trading which aims to benefit from unexpected events causing large price moves. Volatility is important for options as their pricing depends on assumptions about future volatility.
The document discusses various options strategies and their payoffs:
- Covered calls involve buying a stock and writing a call on it. This limits upside gains in exchange for receiving the premium to reduce risk.
- Protective puts involve buying a stock and purchasing a put on it. This protects against stock price declines by ensuring a minimum sale price while allowing participation in upside gains.
- Straddles involve buying both a put and call with the same strike price. This bets that the stock will move substantially in either direction.
- Spreads, like vertical spreads, involve buying and selling options of the same type but different strike prices or expiration dates to limit risk and gain from smaller stock movements.
The document contains biographical and contact information for Dr. Atif Shahzad, along with slides from one of his lectures on optimization models and the simplex method. The slides cover converting linear programs to standard form, basic and non-basic variables, basic feasible solutions, optimality and feasibility conditions, and working through an example using the simplex method in 4 steps - choosing an entering variable, leaving variable, updating the pivot row and other rows, and iterating until optimality is reached.
1) Options have intrinsic value, which is the difference between the stock price and exercise price if in the money, and time value, which is any additional premium above intrinsic value.
2) Key variables that affect option pricing are the stock price, exercise price, time to expiration, volatility, interest rates, and dividends. Higher stock prices and volatility increase call values while lowering put values.
3) Put-call parity states that the call price plus the present value of the strike price must equal the put price plus the stock price.
Game theory is a mathematical discipline that investigates the interaction of multiple, interest driven and rational parties. In other words: Most of our business and social interactions. In this talk we will define some basic game theory terms, talk about some of the more iconic games that have been developed by the discipline and see how they apply to most of our product strategy decisions. We’ll talk about Prisoner’s Dilemma, Rock Paper Scissors and the Game of Chicken – describe business scenarios where they’re applicable and come up with the best solutions, together!
Linear programming using the simplex methodShivek Khurana
This document discusses linear programming and provides an example of using the simplex method to solve a crop plantation optimization problem. It begins with a brief history of linear programming and describes how the simplex method works by introducing slack variables and performing row operations to iteratively find an optimal solution. It then presents a crop plantation problem involving allocating land between potatoes and ladyfingers to maximize profit while satisfying pesticide, manure and land constraints. The simplex method is applied step-by-step to arrive at the optimal solution that allocates 1.42 acres to ladyfingers and yields a maximum profit of 8.57.
The document discusses moving averages, which are technical indicators used to analyze financial data trends. A moving average calculates the average price of a security over a specified period of time to smooth out price fluctuations and make trends easier to identify. There are two main types: simple moving averages, which give equal weight to all data points; and exponential moving averages, which give more weight to recent data points. Moving averages are used to determine the direction of the current trend and generate buy/sell signals when short-term averages cross above or below long-term averages. Popular periods used include 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 days.
Derivatives are financial instruments whose value is derived from an underlying asset. The four main types of derivatives are forwards, futures, options, and swaps. Forwards and futures are contracts to buy or sell an asset at a future date, while options give the right but not obligation to buy or sell. Swaps involve exchanging cash flows of one party's financial instrument for those of another party. Derivatives are traded both over-the-counter and on exchanges, and provide economic benefits like risk management and market liquidity.
The document discusses option pricing models. It covers the Binomial model and the Black-Scholes model. The Black-Scholes model assumes the stock price follows a geometric Brownian motion and uses a partial differential equation to derive a closed-form solution for pricing European stock options. It requires parameters such as the stock price, exercise price, risk-free interest rate, time to maturity, and volatility. The model provides a theoretical fair value for options.
This document provides an introduction to stochastic calculus. It begins with a review of key probability concepts such as the Lebesgue integral, change of measure, and the Radon-Nikodym derivative. It then discusses information and σ-algebras, including filtrations and adapted processes. Conditional expectation is explained. The document concludes by introducing random walks and their connection to Brownian motion through the scaled random walk process. Key concepts such as martingales and quadratic variation are defined.
The document discusses key concepts in game theory including:
- Players are the competitors in a game which can be individuals, groups, or organizations.
- Games can involve two players (two-person game) or more than two players (n-person game).
- Games where the sum of gains and losses is zero are called zero-sum games, all other games are non-zero-sum.
- Strategies are the decisions or actions players take. Pure strategies commit to one action, while mixed strategies randomly choose between actions.
- Payoff matrices represent strategy outcomes and the quantitative payoffs/satisfaction received by players.
The document introduces the binomial option pricing model, which values options by allowing the underlying asset price to move up or down by a set percentage at each time period. It assumes two possible prices, constant interest rates over the life of the option, and perfect markets. The model is then demonstrated by calculating the possible up and down prices of a stock and related call option values at the next time period, given inputs like the current stock price, interest rates, and strike price.
This document describes pricing options using lattice models, specifically binomial trees. It provides details on:
1) Using a binomial tree to price a European call option by replicating the option payoff at each node.
2) Matching the moments of the binomial and Black-Scholes models to derive the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein (CRR) binomial tree.
3) Implementing the CRR model in C++ to price European call and put options via backward induction on the tree.
Traveling salesman problem: Game Scheduling Problem Solution: Ant Colony Opti...Soumen Santra
The document describes using ant colony optimization to solve two traveling salesman problems.
For the first problem, it finds the shortest route between 4 nodes on a graph. It evaluates the cost of all possible routes and determines that the optimal path is 1-2-4-3-1 with a cost of 80.
For the second problem, it schedules games among 5 teams playing 3 types of games. It constructs a weight matrix based on how many games each team participates in. It evaluates all possible paths and determines the optimal schedules are either G1-G2-G3 or G3-G2-G1.
This document discusses image compression using the discrete cosine transform (DCT). It develops simple Mathematica functions to compute the 1D and 2D DCT. The 1D DCT transforms a list of real numbers into elementary frequency components. It is computed via matrix multiplication or using the discrete Fourier transform with twiddle factors. The 2D DCT applies the 1D DCT to rows and then columns of an image, making it separable. These functions illustrate how Mathematica can be used to prototype image processing algorithms.
This document discusses image compression using the discrete cosine transform (DCT). It develops simple Mathematica functions to compute the 1D and 2D DCT. The 1D DCT transforms a list of real numbers into elementary frequency components. It is computed via matrix multiplication or using the discrete Fourier transform with twiddle factors. The 2D DCT applies the 1D DCT to rows and then columns, making it separable. These functions illustrate how Mathematica can be used to prototype image processing algorithms.
This document discusses image compression using the discrete cosine transform (DCT). It begins by explaining the 1D DCT and how it converts a signal into elementary frequency components. It then shows how to compute the 1D and 2D DCT using Mathematica functions. The 2D DCT is computed by applying the 1D DCT to rows and then columns of an image. Examples compress a test image and recover it to demonstrate the process works as expected.
1. The document describes three exercises related to statistical methods for financial institutions. The first exercise considers portfolio returns and risk, defines the expected return and variance of a portfolio, and discusses the difference between arithmetic and continuous returns. The second exercise analyzes stock price data to estimate parameters and risks, and simulates portfolio values with Monte Carlo methods. The third exercise covers factor models, the CAPM, and APT for analyzing portfolio performance.
2. Key steps include: computing the expected return and variance of a portfolio as a linear combination of stock returns and risks; estimating means, variances, and covariances from stock price data; simulating portfolio values over time; and decomposing portfolio risk using factor models. Confidence
My talk in the MCQMC Conference 2016, Stanford University. The talk is about Multilevel Hybrid Split Step Implicit Tau-Leap
for Stochastic Reaction Networks.
Pricing average price advertising options when underlying spot market prices ...Bowei Chen
Advertising options have been recently studied as a special type of guaranteed contracts in online advertising, which are an alternative sales mechanism to real-time auctions. An advertising option is a contract which gives its buyer a right but not obligation to enter into transactions to purchase page views or link clicks at one or multiple pre-specified prices in a specific future period. Different from typical guaranteed contracts, the option buyer pays a lower upfront fee but can have greater flexibility and more control of advertising. Many studies on advertising options so far have been restricted to the situations where the option payoff is determined by the underlying spot market price at a specific time point and the price evolution over time is assumed to be continuous. The former leads to a biased calculation of option payoff and the latter is invalid empirically for many online advertising slots. This paper addresses these two limitations by proposing a new advertising option pricing framework. First, the option payoff is calculated based on an average price over a specific future period. Therefore, the option becomes path-dependent. The average price is measured by the power mean, which contains several existing option payoff functions as its special cases. Second, jump-diffusion stochastic models are used to describe the movement of the underlying spot market price, which incorporate several important statistical properties including jumps and spikes, non-normality, and absence of autocorrelations. A general option pricing algorithm is obtained based on Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, an explicit pricing formula is derived for the case when the option payoff is based on the geometric mean. This pricing formula is also a generalized version of several other option pricing models discussed in related studies.
This document discusses randomized algorithms. It begins by listing different categories of algorithms, including randomized algorithms. Randomized algorithms introduce randomness into the algorithm to avoid worst-case behavior and find efficient approximate solutions. Quicksort is presented as an example randomized algorithm, where randomness improves its average runtime from quadratic to linear. The document also discusses the randomized closest pair algorithm and a randomized algorithm for primality testing. Both introduce randomness to improve efficiency compared to deterministic algorithms for the same problems.
Multi-keyword multi-click advertisement option contracts for sponsored searchBowei Chen
1) The document proposes a new advertising model called "multi-keyword multi-click advertisement option contracts for sponsored search" that allows advertisers to purchase options to target keywords and receive a certain number of clicks over a period of time.
2) It describes the pricing framework for these advertisement options, which is based on a multivariate geometric Brownian motion model of keyword click-through rates over time. The value of an option is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation or closed-form solutions depending on the number of keywords.
3) An empirical example demonstrates pricing a sample multi-keyword option using Monte Carlo simulation and analyzes how setting the exercise price to the expected value of click-through rates can increase search engine revenue compared
The document discusses using Monte Carlo simulation to solve a partial differential equation (PDE) and using explicit time stepping to solve a different PDE. For the Monte Carlo method, as the number of random samples (M) increases, the approximation converges to the exact solution. For explicit time stepping, increasing the number of time and space steps (M and N) causes the error to diverge instead of converge due to exceeding memory cache capacity.
1. The document discusses random signal models, which represent random signals using parameters from probability distributions rather than storing the entire signals. This allows generation, classification, and compression of random signals.
2. Common random signal models include the moving average (MA), autoregressive (AR), and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. The maximum likelihood and mean square error methods are presented for determining the model parameters that best represent a signal.
3. An example shows determining the parameters a and b for an ARMA(1,1) model that estimates a signal x from another signal y by minimizing the mean square error between x and the model output. The parameters are calculated from the autocorrelation and crosscorrelation
The document describes three problems related to constructing optimal self-financing portfolios consisting of stocks and options. Problem 1 involves a portfolio with one stock and one option, Problem 2 involves one stock and two options, and Problem 3 prices an up-and-out option using a finite difference method. For each problem, the document outlines the portfolio composition, parameters, and numerical approach taken to determine optimal quantities of options to minimize portfolio variance.
1. The document provides an overview of digital modulation for mobile communication systems. It discusses key concepts like sampling, bandwidth, modulation theory, and digital modulation schemes.
2. The document covers sampling theory including the sampling theorem and concepts like energy, power, power spectral density, and pulse shaping filters. It explains how sampling works by modeling the sampling function as a train of Dirac impulse functions.
3. Key learning outcomes are listed and cover understanding principles of sampling and digital modulation, as well as modulation schemes like BPSK and QPSK. Concepts of bit error probability, eye diagrams, and spectrum analyzers are also introduced.
Interest Rate Modeling With Cox Ingersoll Rossstretyakov
The document describes the Monte Carlo method for estimating integrals and its application to pricing financial derivatives. It discusses using Monte Carlo simulation to price a European call option and a caplet by generating random stock prices and short-term interest rates based on stochastic processes, and taking averages of the discounted payoffs over many sample paths. It also examines how the parameters of the short-rate Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model affect the generated term structure of interest rates.
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The Delta Of An Arithmetic Asian Option Via The Pathwise Method
1. THE DELTA OF AN
ARITHMETIC ASIAN OPTION
VIA THE PATHWISE METHOD
Anna Borisova
University of Bocconi
1/12/2014
2. Assignment
1. Compute the Monte Carlo simulation for the
price of an Asian option on a lognormal
asset (with descrete monitoring at dates
t1, t2, … , tM);
2. Provide the pathwise estimate of the Delta of
these options.
4. The price of an Asian option by MCS
An Asian option (call) has discounted payoff:
Y = e-rT
[S - K]+
S =
1
m
S(ti )
i=1
m
å For fixed dates 0<t1<…<tm<T
Since for Monte Carlo simulation we describe the risk-neutral dynamics of the stock price, we
need to use the stochastic differential equation for modeling the price movement of the
underlying asset
S(T) = S(0)exp([r -
1
2
s 2
]T +sW(T))
Where W(T) is the random variable,
normally distributed with mean 0 and
variance T.
5. S(T) = S(0)exp([r -
1
2
s 2
]T +sW(T))
Monte Carlo simulation of the
lognormal asset price movement
Model:
S = 100, r = 0.045, σ=15%,
trials = 100000
For fixed dates 0<t1<…<tm<T
6. Constructing the Brownian motion
The properties of Brownian motion:
• W(0) = 0;
• The increments {W(t1)-W(t0), W(t2)-W(t1), … , W(tk)-W(tk-1)} are independent;
• W(t) – W(s) is normally distributed N(0, t-s) for any 0 ≤ s < t ≤ T.
S(t) = S(0)exp([r -0.5s 2
)t + ts Zi
i=0
t
å
9. Model:
S = 100, r = 0.045, σ=15%
12 averaging points
100simulations5000simulations
1000simulations10000simulations
10. Option value estimation and its
confidence level
The sample standard deviation
sC =
1
n-1
(Yi - ˆYn )2
i=1
n
å
1-δ quantile of the standard normal distribution zdConfidence interval:
ˆYn ± zd/2
sC
n
ˆYn =
1
n
Yi
1
n
å
E[ ˆYn ]= Y
ˆYn -Y
sC / n
Þ N(0,1)
The estimation of the option value is unbiased
As number of replications increases, the standardized estimator converges in
distribution to the standard normal
12. TRADE OFF: The value of the option, confidence interval and
computational time
Number of
simulations
100 1000 3000 5000 7000 10000
Value of the
option
0.9306 1.3199
1.125
6
1.3533 1.3347 1.2666 1.1797 1.1634 1.2084 1.2256 1.2575 1.1560
Comput.
time
0.15 0.11 0.13 0.17 0.42 0.47 0.76 0.85 1.13 1.16 1.67 2.14
95% c.l.
lower bound
0.4123
0.929
8
1.2043 1.0898 1.1318 1.1917
95% c.l.
upper bound
1.4490
1.321
4
1.4652 1.2696 1.2850 1.3233
99% c.l.
lower bound
0.3496 1.1336 1.1454 1.0755 1.1472 1.0932
99% c.l.
upper bound
2.2901 1.5730 1.3878 1.2512 1.3040 1.2188
13. The pathwise estimator of the option
delta
This estimator has great practical value
• This estimator is unbiased;
• mean(S) is simulated in estimating the price of the option also, so finding the delta
requires just a little additional effort;
• This method reduces variance and computing time compared to finite-difference.
dY
dS(0)
=
dY
dS
dS
dS(0)
= e-rT
1{S > K}
S
S(0)
dS
dS(0)
=
1
m
dS(ti )
dS(0)
=
1
m
S(ti )
S(0)
=
i=1
m
å
i=1
m
å
S
S(0)
dY
dS(0)
= e-rT
1{S > K}
S
S(0)
15. Model:
Asian call option
S(0) = from 0 to 200
with step 1;
r = 4,5%;
sigma = 1;
K=50;
T = 1 with 24 averaging
points (two times a
month);
Trials = 10000.
17. References:
• Glasserman “Monte Carlo Methods in Financial
Engineering”
• Mark Broadie, Paul Glasserman “Estimating Security
Price Derivatives Using Simulations”
• John C. Hull “Options, futures and other derivatives”
• Huu Tue Huynh, Van Son Lai, Issouf Sourmare
“Stochastic Simulation and Applications in Finance with
MATLAB® Programs”