This document discusses aggregate supply and demand models. It explains that aggregate supply curves represent the quantity of output firms are willing to supply at different price levels. Aggregate demand curves show the equilibrium of goods and money markets at different price levels and output. The intersection of the aggregate supply and demand curves determines equilibrium output and price. Fiscal and monetary policies can shift these curves, impacting output and inflation. Expansionary fiscal policy like tax cuts shifts aggregate demand right, increasing output in the short run but raising prices in the long run when supply is fixed.
It shows the meaning of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Why aggregate demand curve downward slopping? Show the Short run and Long run Aggregate demand aggregate supply.
It shows the meaning of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Why aggregate demand curve downward slopping? Show the Short run and Long run Aggregate demand aggregate supply.
Principles of
Money, Banking & Financial Markets
Tenth Edition
Fredrick.S.Mishkin
MODULE-6
Aggregate Demand & Supply Analysis
Aggregate Demand & Supply AnalysisIn this chapter we will study the aggregate demand and supply analysis that will enable us to study the effects of monetary policy on output and prices.Aggregate demand is the total amount of output demanded at different price level.Aggregate supply is the total amount of output that firms in the economy want to sell at different price level.The equilibrium level of output is determined where aggregate demand equals aggregate supply.
Aggregate Demand & Supply AnalysisAggregate Demand Curve: it shows the relationship between the quantity of aggregate output demanded and the inflation rate.Aggregate Demand consists of four components:
Consumption Expenditure (the total demand for consumer goods and services)
Planned Investment Spending (the total planned spending by business firms on new Machines, Factories and other capital goods, plus planned spending on new homes)
Aggregate Demand & Supply Analysis
3. Government Expenditure (purchases): spending by all levels of government (federal, state and local) on goods and services .
4. Net exports (the net foreign spending on domestic goods and services which equals exports – Imports.Using the symbols C for Consumption Expenditure, I for planned investment spending, G for government spending, and NX for net exports, we can write the expression of aggregate demand Yad = C+I+G+NX
Aggregate Demand & Supply AnalysisDeriving the aggregate demand curve: the first step to derive the aggregate demand curve is to recognize that when the inflation rises, the Central Bank will increase the real interest rate in order to control inflation.We need to examine the effects of higher real interest rates on aggregate demand components.When real interest rate increases the planned investment decreases which in turn causes decline in aggregate demand.
Aggregate Demand & Supply AnalysisThus a higher inflation rate leads to a lower level of aggregate output demanded and so the aggregate demand curve slopes down as shown in the fig:1 on next slide. r I Yad = inflation , r = rate of interest, I = planned investment and Yad = aggregate demand
Aggregate Demand & Supply Analysis
fig:1
Aggregate Demand & Supply AnalysisFactors that shift the aggregate demand curve:
There are seven basic factors which may cause a shift in the aggregate demand curve:
1. Autonomous monetary policy: when current inflation rises, the central bank will raise the real interest rate which causes investment to decrease and hence decrease in aggregate demand. Thus aggregate demand curve shifts to left as in the figure.
2. Government purchases (expenditure): an increase in GE increases aggregate demand and shifts the aggregate demand curve to right as shown in fig:2
Aggregate Demand & Supply Analysis
fig:2
Aggregate Demand & Supply Analy.
Here I describe supply. The law of supply.Supply curve and supply schedule with their Example.Shifty in the supply curve.Market Demand and many Things.
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
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1. 1
AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND AGGREGATE DEMAND
MD Siyam Hossain
Bangladesh Institute of Business & Technology
Narayangonj,Dhaka
Dhaka,Bangladesh
www.facebook.com/mdsiyamhossain
2. 2
1. AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODEL
Aggregate Supply-Demand Schedule
Aggregate supply-demand curves are tool for studying:
Fluctuations in output
Price level and
Inflation rate
Aggregate supply-demand curves helps to understand:
Why the economy deviates from growth path over
time
Aggregate supply-demand curves helps to investigate
the impact of policies on:
Employment
Output, and
Inflation
3. 3
Aggregate Supply Schedule
Aggregate supply curve (AS) represent:
Quantity of output firms willing to supply for a given
price levels
Aggregate Supply curve is upward sloping
Aggregate Supply Says:
At higher price firms are willing to supply more
output and
At lower price firms supply les output (Figure-1)
4. 4
Aggregate Demand Schedule
Aggregate demand (AD) Schedule shows that goods and
money markets are in equilibrium at certain (Figure-1):
Price level and
Level of output
Aggregate demand (AD) Schedule is downward sloping
Aggregate demand (AD) Schedule shows that higher
prices:
Reduce the value of the money and
Demand for output sinks
Intersection of the AD and AS Schedule
5. 5
Intersection of the AD and AS determines:
Equilibrium level of output and
Equilibrium level of output price
Intersection of AD and AS at E determines the
equilibrium level of output Yo
, and the equilibrium price
level, Po
(Figure-1)
Shift either of demand and supply schedule
causes:
Change in price level and
Change in output level (Figure-1)
7. 7
Causes for Shifting of Aggregate Demand Schedule
On following grounds the aggregate demand curve shifts:
Increases in government spending,
Cuts in taxes
Increases in the money supply and
Consumer and investor confidence also
(i) Increases in government spending
Increase in government spending increases:
Could increase money supply
As a result:
Demand of output increases
And price increases and AD curve moves to the right
8. 8
(i) Cuts in taxes
Tax Cuts:
Increases ultimate income and demand
This shifts the demand schedule rightward
As a result:
Demand of output increases
Output increases
And price increases
9. 9
(ii) Increase in confidence of the consumer and investor
Increase in the confidence of the consumer:
Increase in the confidence of the consumer increases
demand
The AD curve moves to the right
As a result:
Demand of output increases
Output increases
And price increases
Increase in the confidence of the investor increases:
Increase in the confidence of the investor increases
investment
10. 10
As a result:
Output increases,
Demand increases
And price increases
The AD curve moves to the right
When confidence of consumer and investor drops
demand
Demand decreases
Output decreases
Price decreases
The AD curve moves to the left
11. 11
(iii) Increases in the money supply
Increase in money supply is only then real money supply,
when:
Money supply increases the value of the money
That is, when money supply increases real income
When money supply increases income then it is
called real money supply
Increases in the real money supply:
Increases income
Increases demand
Increases output
Increases price
12. 12
Condition of real money supply
Real money supply depends on the value of M/P
Where M is money supply and P is price level
So, when M/P increases, real money supply increases
That is, when increase in money supply (M) more
than price (P) increases
When M/P decreases, real money supply decreases
That is, when price (P) increase is more than money
supply (M)
13. 13
When money supply causes real money supply, then:
Interest rate falls
Investment rises
Output also increases
Real income increases
Aggregate demand increase
On the contrary, when money supply decreases value of
money:
Interest rate increases
Investment decreases
Output also decreases
Real income decreases
Aggregate demand decreases
14. 14
ANALYSING BEHAVIOUR OF THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND
CURVE
Let us suppose that the government increases the
money supply
What impact will have this on the price level?
Will have the increase in the money supply cause
inflation?
Will the output increase?
Or do both output and the price level rise?
15. 15
An increase in the money supply:
Shifts the aggregate demand curve AD to the right to
AD1
(Figure-2)
Shifting of aggregate demand curve moves
equilibrium of economy from E to E1
The price level rises from Po
to P1
This shifting moves also the level of output from Yo
to Y1
Increase in money supply increases level of output
and price (Figure-2)
16. 16
Figure-2: Impact of an increase in money supply on output and price level
P Price Level
AS
P1
Po
E1
E
0 Yo
Y1
Demanded Output
17. 17
Impact of supply shock on output and price:
Supply shocks means abrupt sinking of the supply
In supply shocks supply decreases suddenly creating
shock
OPEC oil embargo from 1973 created a supply shock
As by supply shock supply sinks, supply curve shifts
leftward (Figure-3)
So, output is cut
Price increases (Figure-3)
18. 18
Figure-3: Impact of a supply shock on output and price level
P Price Level
AS1
AS
P1
E1
Po
E0
AD
0 Y1
Yo
Y Output/Income
19. 19
2. THE AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
Short-run aggregate supply curve
Aggregate supply curve presents:
Quantity of output that firms are willing to supply at
a given price level
If in short-run demand increases:
Firms increase supply
Firms use this opportunity to achieve extra gain
They keep price unchanged and increase supply
So, in short-run aggregate supply curve remains
horizontal (Figure-4a)
Long-run aggregate supply curve
20. 20
In the long-run:
Per capital GDP is constant
Per capita capital in constant, and
Full employment is achieved
So, if the long-run demand increases:
Firms have no possibility to increase supply
(because of full employment)
Hence, if in the long run demand increases:
It increases only price level
However, output remains unchanged
Hence, in the long run aggregate supply curve is
Vertical (Figure-4b)
22. 22
Figure-4b: Long run aggregate supply curve
P Price Level
AS0
P1
P0
AS1
0 Yo
Y Output/Income
23. 23
2.1 CHANG OF AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE OVER TIME
Over time the economy accumulates resources, technology
improves and GDP grows
So, over time aggregate supply curve moves to the right
(Figure-5a Figure-5b)
The Changes of GDP over a short period is usually small
(Bangladesh 5%)
So, a single vertical line can be drawn to represent short-run
supply of GDP
Annual changes of GDP do not depend on the price level
Annual supply of GDP is ‘exogenous to the price level’
(Figure-5b)
26. 26
2.2 SHORT RUN (KEYNESIAN) AGGREGATE
SUPPLY CURVE
The idea of short run supply curve implies that
there is unemployment
The firms can obtain as much labour as they want
at present wage
So, the costs of production do not to change as
output levels change
Firms are willing to supply as much as demanded
at existing price
So, short run (Keynesian) aggregate supply is
horizontal
This indicates that firms supply whatever
demanded at the existing price
27. 27
2.3 FRIC11ONAL OR NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Classical model implies that there is no
unemployment
Everyone who wants to work get work
But practically there is always some
unemployment
This unemployment is associated with
market friction
Labour market is in continuous change
Some people are moving and changing jobs
Other looking for jobs
28. 28
Some firms are expanding and hiring new workers
Others firms reduce employment by firing workers
Under such condition to find the right job toilsome
So, there is always some frictional unemployment
Frictional unemployment exists because of shifting
one job and for new
Such unemployment is also called the natural
unemployment
It exists when the labour market is in equilibrium
Currently natural rate in United States is about
5.5%
In spite of some frictional unemployment, we can say
there is full employment:
If those who wish to work are able to get work
29. 29
2.4 STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
In modem economy, man by himself hardly produces
anything
Even primitive man needed some tools like bow and
arrow for his livelihood
With growth of technology, much more capital
needed for productive activity
All instruments of production constitute stock of
capital
Now, if working force grows faster than capital stock
of a country, entire labour force cannot be absorbed
in productive employment
So, some will remain unemployed
Such unemployment is known as structural
(Marxian) unemployment
30. 30
2.5 SEASONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Some productive activity has seasonal character
In these sectors (activities), during the slack season
people become unemployed
Such unemployment is known as seasonal
unemployment
Agriculture work is normally a seasonal occupation
So, farmers have not sufficient work to do during
the slack season
Other examples of seasonal industry are:
Ice factories
Rice mills
Sugar factories, etc
31. 31
2.6. KEYNESIAN UNEMPLOYMENT OR CYCLICAL
UNEMPLOY-MENT
Equilibrium level of income and employment may be
established at less than full employment level
That means, there is some unemployment
It is known as Keynesian unemployment
It is due to deficiency of aggregate effective demand
It is also called cyclical unemployment
It is called cyclical, because business depression
occurs at cyclical intervals
During depression, business activity is at low ebb and
unemployment increases
Some people are thrown out of employment
altogether
Some are partially employed
32. 32
This type of unemployment arises not because of too
little capital as for structural unemployment
It occurs because of too much capital
This type of unemployment occurs because total
effective demand is not sufficient to absorb the entire
production of goods that can be produced with the
available stock of capital
Business cannot sell their entire output
So, output is reduced that occurs creates
unemployment
33. 33
Measures Removing Cyclical or Keynesian Unemployment
This unemployment is due to the deficiency of effective
demand
It could be removed by boosting effective demand
Boosting effective demand following should be done:
Government boost consumption by reducing tax rates
on incomes and consumption
Government subsidies private consumption
Government increases its own consumption
34. 34
4. FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY UNDER
ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY ASSUMPTIONS
4.1 SHORT RUN (KEYNESIAN) FISCAL POLICY
Fiscal policy includes govt income (tax) and
expenditure policy
The fiscal policy could be expansionary or contractive
Expansionary fiscal policy includes tax cut and
expansion of the market
Contractive fiscal policy includes increasing tax and
cutting market
Let the market is equilibrium in at point E (Figure-6)
At point E the aggregate demand and supply
schedules intersect
Let us now consider a short run change
35. 35
Let us consider a fiscal expansion
Let government expands spending (or cut tax)
Demand increases and shifts rightward from AD to
AD1
(Figure-6)
As it is a short run change, supply schedule is a
horizontal line AS passing through E
The Supply schedule intersects the new demand
schedule at equilibrium point E1
Output increases, but no prices increase (Figure-6)
Impact of higher government spending (or tax cut) is:
Increase in output (Y1)
No prices increase (P0)
Generate employment
36. 36
Figure-6: Impact of short run fiscal expansion
P Price Level
E E1
Po
AS
AD1
0 Yo
Y1
Output/Spending
37. 37
4.2 IMPACT OF LONG RUN FISCAL POLICY
Let us analyse the impact of fiscal policy in the long
run
Fiscal policy includes govt income (tax) and
expenditure policy
Fiscal policy could be expansionary or contractive
Expansionary fiscal policy means tax cut and
expansion of the market
Contractive fiscal policy means increasing tax and
cutting market
Let us consider that government follows an
expansionary fiscal policy
Let government expands spending
38. 38
In long run the aggregate supply curve is vertical
Supply cannot be increased because there is full-
employment
Level of output (Y*) remains constant (Figure-7)
Impact of Expansionary fiscal policy in the long run
is:
No increase in output
Per capital GDP remains constant
Price increase
Let us consider that government follows an
expansionary fiscal policy
It cuts tax, so:
Demand increases and demand schedule shifts
rightward from AD to AD1
39. 39
If there is unemployment economy move to E1
in short
run
Supply increase by unchanged price P0
to E1
Firms cannot obtain labour to produce more output
New demand schedule intersects the vertical aggregate
supply schedule at point E2
This is new equilibrium and at point E2
there is full
employment
Supply of output cannot be increased to meet
increased demand
Firms charge higher prices for their output and price
increases
Impact of tax cut in the long run is:
No increase in output
Price increase
40. 40
Figure-7: Impact of expansive fiscal policy in the long run
P Price Level
AS
E1
P1
Po
E E1
AD1
AD
0 Yo
Y1
Output/Spending
41. 41
The process of price increase:
Let before the tax cut the real money stock was M/P
M was money supple, P was the price level and there
was equilibrium
Let because of tax cut money supply increases to M1
Demand increases
Output can’t be increased
So, price level increases
Price level increases to P1
so that:
M/P = M1
/P1
There is new equilibrium at higher price (P1)
That means, same output is supplied at higher price
42. 42
4.2.1 Crowding Out
Let there was equilibrium between government and
private sector spending
Let now government spends more
(Govt either increases tax or borrows from bank)
So, private sector spends less
(Because the total income is constant)
Spending of private sector falls by amount that
government spends more
This is known as crowding out
Crowding out occurs when increase in government
spending lessens private sector spending
There is full or partial crowding out
43. 43
5. ONGOING MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
IN LONG RUN
In long run money supply leads to increase price
level
If money supply grows 10% a year
Demand schedule would move up 10% annually
Point of equilibrium of demand and supply would
move up 10%
It means, in the long run prices would rise 10%
annually
So we see ongoing money growth leads to inflation
In the long run fiscal policy cannot affect output
So, neutrality of money has strong policy
implications
44. 44
If money were neutral, inflation could be reduced
For this, growing of the money stock would have to be
stopped
In practice, it is difficult to reduce inflation without
recession
Lower growth rate of money leads to demand sinks
Consequently, output sinks and unemployment
increases
So, money is not neutral
Changes in quantity of money have real effects
Monetary policy affects the level of output
45. 45
6. SUPPLY-SIDE ECONOMICS
Some economists favour policies:
Those shift supply curve right ward
And increases GDP
Arguments are:
Increased supply creates job
And increases per capita income
46. 46
So, following policies suggested for increasing supply:
Removing unnecessary regulation of the economy
Cutting tax rates
Encouraging technological progress
Some economists refer ‘supply-side economics’ as
‘voodoo (curse) economics’
Let us analyse what happens if tax rates are cut
Tax cut has effects both on aggregate supply and
aggregate demand
Aggregate demand increases
(Demand schedule shifts right from AD to
AD1
/Figure-7)
47. 47
This shift is relatively large
Aggregate supply also increases
(Supply curve shifts to the right from AS to
AS1
/Figure -7)
Lower tax rates increase the incentive to work
The effect of such an incentive is quite small
So, rightward shift of GDP is small
So, in short run GDP is higher but very small amount
However, total tax collections fall and the deficit rises
In addition, prices are permanently higher
48. 48
Supply Side Economics: Experiences in the USA
Tax was cut in USA in 1981-1983
Output increased very small
Price increased
Budget deficit increased
Many economists don't believe in magic of tax cut
Conservative economists argue that tax cut has a
small but real effective incentive
They suggest that cutting of tax & govt spending
should fall at same time:
Tax collections fall, so fall also government
spending
So, effect on budget is nearly neutralised