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CAPRISA hosts a MRC
HIV-TB Pathogenesis and
Treatment Research Unit
CAPRISA hosts a DST-
NRF Centre of Excellence
in HIV Prevention
CAPRISA is the UNAIDS
Collaborating Centre for
HIV Research and Policy
Achieving HIV epidemic control –
the importance of HIV prevention in
women
CFAR Biannual meeting, Durban 2016
Quarraisha Abdool Karim, PhD
Associate Scientific Director: CAPRISA
Member: UNAIDS Scientific Expert Panel
Professor in Clinical Epidemiology, Columbia University
Adjunct Professor in Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal
Overview
• Is epidemic control achievable?
• Can treatment alone end the AIDS epidemic?
• What is combination prevention?
• The evolving HIV epidemic:
o Where are new infections occurring?
o Where and what are the challenges for epidemic control?
• Conclusion
What is Epidemic Control?
• Reduction of disease incidence, prevalence,
morbidity or mortality to a locally acceptable level
as a result of deliberate intervention measures
• Point where HIV no longer represents a public
health threat and is no longer among the leading
causes of country’s disease burden
• Mathematically defined as the point at which the
reproductive rate of infection (R0) is below 1
Can treatment alone end the AIDS epidemic?
The case of Botswana
Despite being very close to the
UNAIDS targets of 90-90-90,
Botswana still has unacceptably
high community HIV incidence
rates. … at 3.1%.
What is combination prevention?
“Prevention packages that… combine
various arrays of evidence-based
strategies… tailored to the needs of
diverse subgroups and… targeted to
achieve high coverage… for a measurable
reduction in population-level HIV
transmission”
Source: Kurth et al, Current HIV/AIDS Reports 2011
Note: PMTCT, Screening transfusions, Harm reduction, Universal precautions, etc. have not been included – this is on sexual transmission
Behavioural
Intervention
- Abstinence
- Be Faithful
HIV Counselling
and Testing
Coates T, Lancet 2000
Sweat M, Lancet 2011
Male Condoms
Female Condoms
Treatment of
STIs
Grosskurth H, Lancet 2000
Male
circumcision
Auvert B, PloS Med 2005
Gray R, Lancet 2007
Bailey R, Lancet 2007
Treatment for
prevention
Cohen M, NEJM, 2011
Donnell D, Lancet 2010
Tanser, Science 2013
Grant R, NEJM 2010 (MSM)
Baeten J , NEJM 2012 (Couples)
Thigpen L, NEJM 2012 (Heterosexuals)
Choopanya K, Lancet 2013 (IDU)
Oral pre-exposure
prophylaxis
Post Exposure
prophylaxis (PEP)
Scheckter M, 2002
Tools for
preventing sexual
transmission of HIV
HIV
PREVENTION
About 6,000
new HIV
infections
each day
The world has made impressive
progress in the HIV response, but the
spread of HIV has yet to be controlled!
In 2015, worldwide there were:
1.2 million HIV deaths
37 million living with HIV
2 million new infections
Source: UNAIDS Global Report 2016
About 6,000
new HIV
infections
each day
Source: UNAIDS Global Report 2015
2 out of 3 new
HIV infections
are in sub-
Saharan Africa
1 out of 3 new
HIV infections
are in youth
(15-24yr)
Global HIV epidemic at a glance
Rank Country
% of people with
HIV in the world
1 South Africa 18%
2 Nigeria 9%
3 India 6%
4 Kenya 5%
5 Mozambique 4%
6 Uganda 4%
7 Tanzania 4%
8 Zimbabwe 4%
9 USA 4%
10 Malawi 3%
Remaining
countries 39%
South Africa
Nigeria
India
Kenya
Mozambique
Uganda
Tanzania
Zimbabwe
USA
Zambia
Remaining countries
With <1% of the world’s population, South
Africa has 18% of the HIV infections
61%
Zambia
Source: UNAIDS Global Report 2014
33%
Top 10
countries:
People living
with HIV
35 countries account for 90% of new
HIV infections globally
Young Women at High Risk
The South African HIV Epidemic:
A diversity of epidemics at a district level
HIV in South Africa:
Disproportionate burden of HIV in young women
South Africa
HIV in 15–24 year
men and women
(2008–2011)
Young women have
up to 8 times more
HIV than men
AIDS 1992, 6:1535-1539
1990
Worsening of the HIV epidemic in
young women in South Africa from
1990 to 2005HIVprevalence(%)
Source: Abdool Karim SS, Churchyard G, Abdool Karim Q, Lawn S. Lancet 2009
1990
2005
Abdool Karim Q et al. AIDS 1992
Shisana O et al. HSRC Press 2005
< 9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 > 49
HSRC Survey: 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+
HIVPrevalence(%)
Age group (years)
Females
Adapted from Shisana O, Rehle T, Simbayi LC, Zuma K, Jooste S, Zungu
N, et al. South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and
Behaviour Survey, 2012. Cape Town, HSRC Press. 2014.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
HIVprevalence(%)
Survey year
Pregnant women in Vulindlela
National HIV prevalence in pregnant women
In KwaZulu-Natal, HIV prevalence
declining too slowly in young women
Moving average HIV prevalence
in pregnant women in Vulindlela
Source: Kharsany ABM et al , JAIDS 2015
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
32 35 41 43 37 38 34 41 37 40 35 40 44
25 27 28 30 30 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 30
Year
HIV
prevalence (%)
National HIV
prevalence (%)
Age
Group
(Years)
HIV Prevalence
(N=4818)
≤16 11.5%
17-18 21.3%
19-20 30.4%
21-22 39.4%
23-24 49.5%
>25 51.9%
Overall HIV prevalence
in rural Vulindlela
(2001-2013)
Highest Priority: Reducing HIV in young girls
HIV in rural South Africa (Grade 9/10)
Age Group
(years)
HIV Prevalence (2010)
% (95% Confidence Interval)
Male (n=1252)
≤15 1.0 (0.0 - 2.2)
16-17 1.1 (0.2 - 2.0)
18-19 1.5 (0 - 3.7)
≥20 1.8 (0 - 3.9)
Female (n= 1423)
2.6 (1.2 - 4.0)
6.1 (2.6 - 9.6)
13.6 (9.0 - 18.1)
24.7 (6.3 - 43.1)
Age Group
(years)
HIV Prevalence
% (95% Confidence Interval)
Male (n=1252) Female (n= 1423)
≤15 1.0
16-17 1.1
18-19 1.5
≥20 1.8
HIV & HSV-2 prevalence in students by age
HSV-2 Prevalence
≤15 0.7
16-17 2.0
18-19 6.6
≥20 3.5
2.6
6.1
13.6
24.7
3.5
9.3
30.2
43.3
Risk factors for HIV acquisition in
female high school students
Risk factor Adjusted OR p-value
Age <18 years
2.67
(1.67-4.27)
<0.001
HSV-2 seropositive
4.35
(2.61-7.24)
<0.001
Experience of pregnancy
1.66
(1.10-2.51)
0.016
Experience of >1 adult
deaths in household
1.97
(1.13-3.44)
0.016
SOCIAL as well as BIOLOGICAL
vulnerability to infection
Abdool Karim Q, Kharsany ABM, Leask K, Ntombela F, Humphries H, Frohlich JA, Samsunder N,
Grobler A, Dellar R, Abdool Karim SS. Sexually Transmitted Infections 2014;
HSV-2 infection increases HIV risk in
CAPRISA 004 women
HSV-2 incident infections
HSV-2 positive
n=58
HSV-2 Negative
n=164
# HIV infections 11 13
HIV incidence / 100 person-yrs 12.3 5.3
HR for HIV risk in incident HSV-2: 2.4 (CI: 1.1-5.4), p = 0.03
Prevalent HPV infection increases
HIV risk
*Multivariate model fitted to HIV incidence adjusting for Study arm, Self-reported condom use, Age, Baseline
HSV-2 status, Self-reported sex acts in the last month, and Age at sexual debut.
Prevalent HPV Women-years (n/N) HIV Incidence rate (95% CI)
HPV- 330.5 (8/204) 2.4 (1.1 - 4.8)
HPV+ 880.3 (59/575) 6.7 (5.1 - 8.6)
HR for prevalent HPV: 2.8 (CI: 1.3 – 5.9), p=0.007
New WHO policy on ARVs to
prevent the spread of HIV by sex
(Pre-exposure prophylaxis - PrEP):
New WHO PrEP
guidelines
“..the use of daily oral
pre-exposure prophylaxis
is recommended as an
additional prevention
choice for people at
substantial risk of HIV
infection as part of
combination prevention
approaches..”
20
PrEP recommended as global standard for all at high risk
Daily Truvada
Summary
• Diversity of epidemics
• Responses have to be shaped by knowledge of
epidemic, drivers of epidemic & target populations
• Need to define optimal combinations of known
interventions appropriate for target population and
epidemic
• More than a health issue - social mobilization is
effective
• Treatment scale up and PrEP are creating new
opportunities for prevention – increase male
engagement; 3 zeroes
• HIV prevention is complex challenge - no quick fix, no
magic bullets, no one size fits all
• Major gap is HIV prevention technologies for young
women – daily Truvada is a start.
• M&E and keep track of new knowledge
Conclusion
 Impressive progress in scientific research, political
commitment & implementation globally:
 created a favourable HIV trajectory
 but, young women in SSA still have high HIV rates
 SSA is important and critical in impacting the global
 There are many challenges but it should not deter us!
 We won’t stop HIV in young women tomorrow….
…. but socialand biomedical innovation has to
be part of our long-term vision
CAPRISA hosts a MRC
HIV-TB Pathogenesis and
Treatment Research Unit
CAPRISA is the UNAIDS
Collaborating Centre for
HIV Research and Policy
CAPRISA hosts a DST-
NRF Centre of Excellence
in HIV Prevention
CAPRISA Partner
Institutions:
Acknowledgements
 CAPRISA is funded by:
 DAIDS, NIAID, National Institutes of Health
 US Agency for International Development (USAID)
 President’s Emergency fund for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)
 US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
 South African Department of Science and Technology
(DST)
 National Research Foundation (NRF)
 Fogarty International Center, NIH
 Gilead Sciences (tenofovir API)
 MACAIDS Fund (via Tides Foundation)
 Medical Research Council (MRC)
 CONRAD
• CAPRISA hosts a DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in HIV
Prevention (jointly with the University of KwaZulu-Natal)
Who is infecting who?
Africa Centre identified phylogenetically linked HIV
transmission networks in Hlabisa
High HIV incidence men
mean age 27 years (range
23-35 years)
High HIV risk women
Mean age 18 years
(range 16-23 years)
High HIV prevalence women
Mean age 26 years
(range 24-29 years)
Very young women
acquire HIV from
men, on average,
8 years older
Men and women > 24
years usually acquire
HIV from similarly
aged partners
When teen women
reach mid-20s they
continue the cycleSource: Dellar R, et al. Manuscript in preparation
Source: Cremin I. et al. AIDS 2013
Status quo
+ 100% ART at CD4 200
+ Circumcision
+ Early ART + structural
+ PrEP + behavioral
Is HIV epidemic control achievable?
Yes, HIV epidemic control is achievable!
CAPRISA hosts a MRC
HIV-TB Pathogenesis and
Treatment Research Unit
CAPRISA hosts a DST-
NRF Centre of Excellence
in HIV Prevention
CAPRISA is the UNAIDS
Collaborating Centre for
HIV Research and Policy
HSRC 2012 Survey: HIV Incidence rates
Adapted from Shisana O, Rehle T, Simbayi LC, Zuma K, Jooste S, Zungu N, et al. South African National HIV Prevalence,
Incidence and Behaviour Survey, 2012. Cape Town, HSRC Press. 2014.

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Achieving HIV epidemic control - the importance of HIV prevention in women

  • 1. CAPRISA hosts a MRC HIV-TB Pathogenesis and Treatment Research Unit CAPRISA hosts a DST- NRF Centre of Excellence in HIV Prevention CAPRISA is the UNAIDS Collaborating Centre for HIV Research and Policy Achieving HIV epidemic control – the importance of HIV prevention in women CFAR Biannual meeting, Durban 2016 Quarraisha Abdool Karim, PhD Associate Scientific Director: CAPRISA Member: UNAIDS Scientific Expert Panel Professor in Clinical Epidemiology, Columbia University Adjunct Professor in Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal
  • 2. Overview • Is epidemic control achievable? • Can treatment alone end the AIDS epidemic? • What is combination prevention? • The evolving HIV epidemic: o Where are new infections occurring? o Where and what are the challenges for epidemic control? • Conclusion
  • 3. What is Epidemic Control? • Reduction of disease incidence, prevalence, morbidity or mortality to a locally acceptable level as a result of deliberate intervention measures • Point where HIV no longer represents a public health threat and is no longer among the leading causes of country’s disease burden • Mathematically defined as the point at which the reproductive rate of infection (R0) is below 1
  • 4. Can treatment alone end the AIDS epidemic? The case of Botswana Despite being very close to the UNAIDS targets of 90-90-90, Botswana still has unacceptably high community HIV incidence rates. … at 3.1%.
  • 5. What is combination prevention? “Prevention packages that… combine various arrays of evidence-based strategies… tailored to the needs of diverse subgroups and… targeted to achieve high coverage… for a measurable reduction in population-level HIV transmission” Source: Kurth et al, Current HIV/AIDS Reports 2011
  • 6. Note: PMTCT, Screening transfusions, Harm reduction, Universal precautions, etc. have not been included – this is on sexual transmission Behavioural Intervention - Abstinence - Be Faithful HIV Counselling and Testing Coates T, Lancet 2000 Sweat M, Lancet 2011 Male Condoms Female Condoms Treatment of STIs Grosskurth H, Lancet 2000 Male circumcision Auvert B, PloS Med 2005 Gray R, Lancet 2007 Bailey R, Lancet 2007 Treatment for prevention Cohen M, NEJM, 2011 Donnell D, Lancet 2010 Tanser, Science 2013 Grant R, NEJM 2010 (MSM) Baeten J , NEJM 2012 (Couples) Thigpen L, NEJM 2012 (Heterosexuals) Choopanya K, Lancet 2013 (IDU) Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis Post Exposure prophylaxis (PEP) Scheckter M, 2002 Tools for preventing sexual transmission of HIV HIV PREVENTION
  • 7. About 6,000 new HIV infections each day The world has made impressive progress in the HIV response, but the spread of HIV has yet to be controlled! In 2015, worldwide there were: 1.2 million HIV deaths 37 million living with HIV 2 million new infections Source: UNAIDS Global Report 2016
  • 8. About 6,000 new HIV infections each day Source: UNAIDS Global Report 2015 2 out of 3 new HIV infections are in sub- Saharan Africa 1 out of 3 new HIV infections are in youth (15-24yr) Global HIV epidemic at a glance
  • 9. Rank Country % of people with HIV in the world 1 South Africa 18% 2 Nigeria 9% 3 India 6% 4 Kenya 5% 5 Mozambique 4% 6 Uganda 4% 7 Tanzania 4% 8 Zimbabwe 4% 9 USA 4% 10 Malawi 3% Remaining countries 39% South Africa Nigeria India Kenya Mozambique Uganda Tanzania Zimbabwe USA Zambia Remaining countries With <1% of the world’s population, South Africa has 18% of the HIV infections 61% Zambia Source: UNAIDS Global Report 2014 33% Top 10 countries: People living with HIV 35 countries account for 90% of new HIV infections globally
  • 10. Young Women at High Risk
  • 11. The South African HIV Epidemic: A diversity of epidemics at a district level
  • 12. HIV in South Africa: Disproportionate burden of HIV in young women South Africa HIV in 15–24 year men and women (2008–2011) Young women have up to 8 times more HIV than men AIDS 1992, 6:1535-1539 1990
  • 13. Worsening of the HIV epidemic in young women in South Africa from 1990 to 2005HIVprevalence(%) Source: Abdool Karim SS, Churchyard G, Abdool Karim Q, Lawn S. Lancet 2009 1990 2005 Abdool Karim Q et al. AIDS 1992 Shisana O et al. HSRC Press 2005 < 9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 > 49
  • 14. HSRC Survey: 2012 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+ HIVPrevalence(%) Age group (years) Females Adapted from Shisana O, Rehle T, Simbayi LC, Zuma K, Jooste S, Zungu N, et al. South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey, 2012. Cape Town, HSRC Press. 2014.
  • 15. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 HIVprevalence(%) Survey year Pregnant women in Vulindlela National HIV prevalence in pregnant women In KwaZulu-Natal, HIV prevalence declining too slowly in young women Moving average HIV prevalence in pregnant women in Vulindlela Source: Kharsany ABM et al , JAIDS 2015 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 32 35 41 43 37 38 34 41 37 40 35 40 44 25 27 28 30 30 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 Year HIV prevalence (%) National HIV prevalence (%) Age Group (Years) HIV Prevalence (N=4818) ≤16 11.5% 17-18 21.3% 19-20 30.4% 21-22 39.4% 23-24 49.5% >25 51.9% Overall HIV prevalence in rural Vulindlela (2001-2013)
  • 16. Highest Priority: Reducing HIV in young girls HIV in rural South Africa (Grade 9/10) Age Group (years) HIV Prevalence (2010) % (95% Confidence Interval) Male (n=1252) ≤15 1.0 (0.0 - 2.2) 16-17 1.1 (0.2 - 2.0) 18-19 1.5 (0 - 3.7) ≥20 1.8 (0 - 3.9) Female (n= 1423) 2.6 (1.2 - 4.0) 6.1 (2.6 - 9.6) 13.6 (9.0 - 18.1) 24.7 (6.3 - 43.1)
  • 17. Age Group (years) HIV Prevalence % (95% Confidence Interval) Male (n=1252) Female (n= 1423) ≤15 1.0 16-17 1.1 18-19 1.5 ≥20 1.8 HIV & HSV-2 prevalence in students by age HSV-2 Prevalence ≤15 0.7 16-17 2.0 18-19 6.6 ≥20 3.5 2.6 6.1 13.6 24.7 3.5 9.3 30.2 43.3
  • 18. Risk factors for HIV acquisition in female high school students Risk factor Adjusted OR p-value Age <18 years 2.67 (1.67-4.27) <0.001 HSV-2 seropositive 4.35 (2.61-7.24) <0.001 Experience of pregnancy 1.66 (1.10-2.51) 0.016 Experience of >1 adult deaths in household 1.97 (1.13-3.44) 0.016 SOCIAL as well as BIOLOGICAL vulnerability to infection Abdool Karim Q, Kharsany ABM, Leask K, Ntombela F, Humphries H, Frohlich JA, Samsunder N, Grobler A, Dellar R, Abdool Karim SS. Sexually Transmitted Infections 2014;
  • 19. HSV-2 infection increases HIV risk in CAPRISA 004 women HSV-2 incident infections HSV-2 positive n=58 HSV-2 Negative n=164 # HIV infections 11 13 HIV incidence / 100 person-yrs 12.3 5.3 HR for HIV risk in incident HSV-2: 2.4 (CI: 1.1-5.4), p = 0.03 Prevalent HPV infection increases HIV risk *Multivariate model fitted to HIV incidence adjusting for Study arm, Self-reported condom use, Age, Baseline HSV-2 status, Self-reported sex acts in the last month, and Age at sexual debut. Prevalent HPV Women-years (n/N) HIV Incidence rate (95% CI) HPV- 330.5 (8/204) 2.4 (1.1 - 4.8) HPV+ 880.3 (59/575) 6.7 (5.1 - 8.6) HR for prevalent HPV: 2.8 (CI: 1.3 – 5.9), p=0.007
  • 20. New WHO policy on ARVs to prevent the spread of HIV by sex (Pre-exposure prophylaxis - PrEP): New WHO PrEP guidelines “..the use of daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis is recommended as an additional prevention choice for people at substantial risk of HIV infection as part of combination prevention approaches..” 20 PrEP recommended as global standard for all at high risk Daily Truvada
  • 21. Summary • Diversity of epidemics • Responses have to be shaped by knowledge of epidemic, drivers of epidemic & target populations • Need to define optimal combinations of known interventions appropriate for target population and epidemic • More than a health issue - social mobilization is effective • Treatment scale up and PrEP are creating new opportunities for prevention – increase male engagement; 3 zeroes • HIV prevention is complex challenge - no quick fix, no magic bullets, no one size fits all • Major gap is HIV prevention technologies for young women – daily Truvada is a start. • M&E and keep track of new knowledge
  • 22. Conclusion  Impressive progress in scientific research, political commitment & implementation globally:  created a favourable HIV trajectory  but, young women in SSA still have high HIV rates  SSA is important and critical in impacting the global  There are many challenges but it should not deter us!  We won’t stop HIV in young women tomorrow…. …. but socialand biomedical innovation has to be part of our long-term vision
  • 23. CAPRISA hosts a MRC HIV-TB Pathogenesis and Treatment Research Unit CAPRISA is the UNAIDS Collaborating Centre for HIV Research and Policy CAPRISA hosts a DST- NRF Centre of Excellence in HIV Prevention CAPRISA Partner Institutions: Acknowledgements  CAPRISA is funded by:  DAIDS, NIAID, National Institutes of Health  US Agency for International Development (USAID)  President’s Emergency fund for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)  US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)  South African Department of Science and Technology (DST)  National Research Foundation (NRF)  Fogarty International Center, NIH  Gilead Sciences (tenofovir API)  MACAIDS Fund (via Tides Foundation)  Medical Research Council (MRC)  CONRAD • CAPRISA hosts a DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in HIV Prevention (jointly with the University of KwaZulu-Natal)
  • 24.
  • 25. Who is infecting who? Africa Centre identified phylogenetically linked HIV transmission networks in Hlabisa High HIV incidence men mean age 27 years (range 23-35 years) High HIV risk women Mean age 18 years (range 16-23 years) High HIV prevalence women Mean age 26 years (range 24-29 years) Very young women acquire HIV from men, on average, 8 years older Men and women > 24 years usually acquire HIV from similarly aged partners When teen women reach mid-20s they continue the cycleSource: Dellar R, et al. Manuscript in preparation
  • 26. Source: Cremin I. et al. AIDS 2013 Status quo + 100% ART at CD4 200 + Circumcision + Early ART + structural + PrEP + behavioral Is HIV epidemic control achievable? Yes, HIV epidemic control is achievable!
  • 27. CAPRISA hosts a MRC HIV-TB Pathogenesis and Treatment Research Unit CAPRISA hosts a DST- NRF Centre of Excellence in HIV Prevention CAPRISA is the UNAIDS Collaborating Centre for HIV Research and Policy HSRC 2012 Survey: HIV Incidence rates Adapted from Shisana O, Rehle T, Simbayi LC, Zuma K, Jooste S, Zungu N, et al. South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey, 2012. Cape Town, HSRC Press. 2014.