Climate change and heat: risks to defence forces
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Talk given in April 2016, concerning heat, health and the defence community, in the context of climate change
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Climate change and heat: risks to defence forces
- 1. CRICOS #00212K Climate Security Roundtable/ Climate Change Institute ADFA April 12, 2016
- 4. CRICOS #00212K But - are some risks “perhaps unacceptable”?
- 5. CRICOS #00212K Butler et al, 2005 (Ecosystems) direct & indirect Log scale Log scale
- 6. CRICOS #00212K “Primary” (easily foreseeable) 6
- 7. CRICOS #00212K Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines on Nov 7, 2013. Credit: EUMETSAT (Wide-angle satellite image) 7
- 8. CRICOS #00212K 8 A woman, who survived the typhoon by climbing up a steep hill, stands beside her temporary home. “I’m scared living here. When the tide comes up here, I’m very nervous that my house will be destroyed,” she said. Photograph: Eleanor Farmer/Oxfam
- 9. CRICOS #00212K “Tertiary” (potentially catastrophic) “Primary” (easily foreseeable) 9 “Secondary” (less obvious) Old location
- 10. CRICOS #00212K Burden of Disease (proportion) Year widely accepted now 2050? PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity) SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies) TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) via famine, conflict, large-scale migration, economic collapse Butler et al, 2014
- 11. CRICOS #00212K 11 Butler et al, 2014 Mental health: “crosscut”
- 12. CRICOS #00212K Watts et al, Lancet 2015
- 13. CRICOS #00212K Dept of Defence, climate change and health Heat – quintuple vulnerability including conflict / disaster relief / peacekeeping in hot countries Vector borne diseases, other infectious diseases Conflict-related injuries Post traumatic stress disorder
- 14. CRICOS #00212K Dept of Defence, climate change and heat Quintuple vulnerability 1.Warmer external temperatures (+humidity?) 2.Instability/disasters in already hot places 3.Internal heat (weight bearing exercise) 4.Heat capture (clothing, equipment) 5.Additional external heat? (heat island effects, fires) Heat stress, heat exhaustion, death Dehydration and heat: renal impairment Neural slowdown – Multiple Sclerosis – others? Exacerbation of chronic diseases? (also mental ill-health) Impacts due to family members & colleagues who are vulnerable (partners, parents, senior staff?) Unknown effects
Editor's Notes
- Thank you ! On Tuesday, March 22, 2016, Colin.Butler <[email_address]> wrote: Yes, sure. Colin From: Alix Pearce [mailto:[email_address]] Sent: Tuesday, 22 March 2016 5:58 PMTo: Colin.ButlerSubject: April 12th: climate security roundtable Hi Colin, We're looking forward to having you at the climate security roundtable on April 12th. I wanted to touch base with you to see if you're able to talk on climate change and health during the roundtable. We have structured the draft agenda so that a range of participants can talk for 5 minutes on knowledge gaps that have security implications. One of these gaps is climate change, security and health, and it would be invaluable for you to share your insights on climate change and health with the group for 5 minutes. Would this be something you would be able to do? Cheers Alix -- Alix PearceStrategic Projects Manager, Climate Council E [email_address] W climatecouncil.org.au P 02 9356 8493 Be the first to hear about updates on the Climate Council Facebook & Twitter P.S. Support the work of the Climate Council and help us crowd-fund our reports by making a donation here. The Climate Council of Australia may collect your personal information when you contact us with a query, comment or feedback by email, post, or over the phone, make a donation, or otherwise provide us with your personal information. For details, please see our Privacy Policy and Collection Statements. -- Sent from Gmail Mobile
- People searching through the debris of destroyed buildings in the aftermath of a strike by Syrian government forces, in the neighborhood of Jabal Bedro, Aleppo, Syria, Tuesday (AP Photo/Aleppo Media Center AMC) Feb 2013 Dear presenting author, Dear submitter, Please find below more information regarding your poster presentation: Abstract ID 3268 Title Is climate change as large a health threat as some have proposed? A new conceptual framework suggests it is. Presenting author Colin Butler Presentation format Poster Poster format The poster should not exceed the following dimensions: 90 cm width x 130 cm height (~world format). Session V-03: Poster Viewing III Time Thursday, 22 Aug, 13:00-14:00 PublicationYour abstract will be published in an online searchable program on the conference website. Furthermore all abstracts are published in an EHP Environmental Health Perspectives (http://www.ehponline.org/) online file, which will have a fully citable DOI number. Setting up your poster on siteThe poster exhibition will take place in hall 4.1.of the Congress Center Basel - there will be staff available to assist you with the installation of your poster. Around 450 posters will be on display during your poster viewing session. Please ensure, that your poster is installed before 10h00. The posters may be uninstalled starting at 15:30 (after the coffee break). For the poster viewing sessions on Tuesday (Aug 20) and Wednesday (Aug 21) we ask you to make sure, that your poster is uninstalled at the end of the conference day to free the poster space for the following poster viewing session the next day. Presenting your posterThe presenters of the posters should be available for questioning during the poster viewing sessions, which will take place from 13h00-14h00. Poster Award CompetitionIf you are a student poster presenter, you have the possiblity to register for the poster award competition for one of the three societies organizing this conference (ISIAQ/ ISES/ISEE). Click on the following link for more information: http://see13.organizers-congress.ch/english/Poster-award-comp.php Online RegistrationPlease ensure, that at least the presenting author is registered for the conference and the presenting author information we received is correct (see above). Posters without a registered presenting author may be cancelled.Online Registration and further information is available through our conference website: www.ehbasel13.org Once again we would like to thank your for your contribution to the conference. We are looking forward to welcoming you soon in Basel!For the organizing committeeThe Registration Office
- Wide-angle satellite image showing Super Typhoon Haiyan approach the Philippines on November 7, 2013.Credit: EUMETSAT http://www.climatecentral.org/news/globe-saw-a-record-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2013-17037
- People searching through the debris of destroyed buildings in the aftermath of a strike by Syrian government forces, in the neighborhood of Jabal Bedro, Aleppo, Syria, Tuesday (AP Photo/Aleppo Media Center AMC) Feb 2013 Dear presenting author, Dear submitter, Please find below more information regarding your poster presentation: Abstract ID 3268 Title Is climate change as large a health threat as some have proposed? A new conceptual framework suggests it is. Presenting author Colin Butler Presentation format Poster Poster format The poster should not exceed the following dimensions: 90 cm width x 130 cm height (~world format). Session V-03: Poster Viewing III Time Thursday, 22 Aug, 13:00-14:00 PublicationYour abstract will be published in an online searchable program on the conference website. Furthermore all abstracts are published in an EHP Environmental Health Perspectives (http://www.ehponline.org/) online file, which will have a fully citable DOI number. Setting up your poster on siteThe poster exhibition will take place in hall 4.1.of the Congress Center Basel - there will be staff available to assist you with the installation of your poster. Around 450 posters will be on display during your poster viewing session. Please ensure, that your poster is installed before 10h00. The posters may be uninstalled starting at 15:30 (after the coffee break). For the poster viewing sessions on Tuesday (Aug 20) and Wednesday (Aug 21) we ask you to make sure, that your poster is uninstalled at the end of the conference day to free the poster space for the following poster viewing session the next day. Presenting your posterThe presenters of the posters should be available for questioning during the poster viewing sessions, which will take place from 13h00-14h00. Poster Award CompetitionIf you are a student poster presenter, you have the possiblity to register for the poster award competition for one of the three societies organizing this conference (ISIAQ/ ISES/ISEE). Click on the following link for more information: http://see13.organizers-congress.ch/english/Poster-award-comp.php Online RegistrationPlease ensure, that at least the presenting author is registered for the conference and the presenting author information we received is correct (see above). Posters without a registered presenting author may be cancelled.Online Registration and further information is available through our conference website: www.ehbasel13.org Once again we would like to thank your for your contribution to the conference. We are looking forward to welcoming you soon in Basel!For the organizing committeeThe Registration Office
- Fig. 26.2. This conceptual diagram compares the likely burden of disease from the primary, secondary and tertiary effects of climate change with the time at which the effects are likely to be widely accepted as causally related by the general and even the scientific community. Two major European heatwaves since 2000 (France and Russia) killed over 100,000 people. Both extreme events are likely to have been contributed to by climate change. Secondary effects, such as changes to vector-borne diseases, probably have a lower burden of disease. There has been greater scientific resistance to their reality, but this is fading. Tertiary effects such as the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the conflicts in Sudan and Syria are still regarded as speculative by most people, including most scientists. These events have the potential to cause a burden of disease at least of an order of magnitude higher than the others. Waiting for complete consensus is to wait too long.