No estimates is a Twitter hash tag suggesting that decisions can be made in the absence of estimating the impact of those decisions.

1. Here's a post asking for a conversation about estimates. Here's a response. Let's ignore the
term FACT as untestable and see how an answer can be arrived at. These answers are from a
paradigm of Software Intensive Systems, where Microeconomics of decision making are the
paradigm used to make decisions, based on the Opportunity Costs from those decisions.
• FACT: It is possible, and sometimes necessary, to estimate software tasks and
projects.
o It is always possible to estimate the future
o The confidence in the estimate's value is part of the estimating process
o The value at risk is one attribute of the estimate
o Low value at risk provides a wider range on the confidence value
o High value at risk requires higher confidence
• FACT: Questioning the intent behind a request for an estimate is the professional
thing to do
o The intent of estimates is to inform those accountable for the money to make
decisions about that money informed by the value at risk.
o To question that intent assumes those making those decision no longer have
the fiduciary responsibility for being the stewards of the money. And that
responsibility is transferred to those spending the money.
o This would imply the separation of concerns on any governance based
business has been suspended.
• FACT: #NoEstimates is a Twitter hashtag and was never intended to become a
demand, a method or a black-and-white truth
o The HashTag's original poster makes a clear and concise statement
o We can make decisions in the absence of estimating the impact of those
decisions.
o Until those original words are addressed, the hashtag will remain
contentious, since that would mean the principle of Microeconomics would
not longer be applicable in that business domain.
• FACT: The #NoEstimates hashtag became something due to the interest it
generated
o This is a shouting fire in a theater approach to conversation
o Without a domain and governance paradigm, the notion of making decisions
in the absence of estimates has no basis for being tested.
• FACT: A forecast is a type of estimate, whether probabilistic, deterministic,
bombastic or otherwise
• FACT: Forecasting is distinct from estimation, at least in the common usage of the
words, in that it involves using data to make the “estimate” rather than relying on a
person or people drawing on “experience” or guessing
o These definitions are not found outside the personally selected operational
definitions.
o Texts like Estimating Software Intensive Systems do not make this
distinction
o Estimating is about past, present, and future approximation of value found in
system with uncertainty.
§ Estimate - a number that approximates a value of interest in a system
with uncertainty.
§ Estimating - the process used to make such a calculation
§ To Estimate - find a value close to the actual value. 2 ≈ 2.3. 2 is an
approximation of the value 2.3.
o Forecasts are about future approximations of values found in systems with
uncertainty.
o Looking for definitions outside the domain of software development and
applying to fit the needs of the argument is disingenuous

2. • FACT: People who tweet with the hashtag #NoEstimates, or indeed any other
hashtag, are not automatically saying “My tweet is congruent and completely in
agreement with the literal meaning of the words in the hashtag”
o Those who tweet with hashtag are in fact retweeting the notion that decisions
can be made with estimates if they do not explicitly challenge that notion.
o If that is not established, there is an implicit support of the original idea
• FACT: The prevailing way estimation is done in software projects is single point
estimation
o This is likely a personal experience, since many stating that have limited
experience outside there domain.
• FACT: The prevailing way estimates are used in software organizations is a push
for a commitment, and then an excuse for a whipping when the estimate is not met.
o Again likely personal experience.
o If the poster said in my experience... that would establish the limits of the
statement.
o IME takes 3 letters. Those are rarely seen by those
suggesting not estimating is a desirable approach to managing in the
presence of uncertainty while spending other people money.
o Those complaining the phrase spending other peoples money are likely not
dong that, or not doing that with an substantial value at risk.
• FACT: The above fact does not make estimates a useless artifact, nor estimation
itself a useless or damaging activity
o Those proffering decisions can be made without estimating have in FACT said
estimating are damaging, useless, and a waste of time.
o Until that is countered, it will remain the basis of NoEstimates.