The document discusses relationship forecasting and why it is better than traditional budgeting approaches. Some key points: 1) Forecasting focuses on what is likely to happen rather than target-setting, and uses a range to capture uncertainty rather than a single number. 2) Considering best- and worst-case scenarios through a range helps have more honest, meaningful discussions about opportunities and risks. 3) Relationship forecasting emphasizes building trust between parties to improve forecast accuracy, which benefits the overall organization. 4) A variety of statistical tools from simple conversations to more advanced models like Monte Carlo simulations can help quantify probabilities within a forecast range.

1. Relationship Forecasting Caroline Stockmann Save the Children International 5 July 2011

19. Statistical Modelling