Presentation to the 2016 Society of American Foresters National Convention

1. Maria Janowiaka,b, Todd Ontla,b, Chris Swanstona,b, Anthony D'Amatoc, Leslie
Brandta,b, Patricia Butlera,d, Stephen Handlera,b, Danielle Shannona,d
a Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
b USDA Forest Service
c University of Vermont
d Michigan Technological University,
School of Forest Resources & Environmental Science
FOREST ADAPTATION IN ACTION:
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PROJECTS
IN NORTHERN FORESTS

2. Considering Climate Change

3. Considering Climate Change

4. Responding to Climate Change

5. If you want a single “answer” for how
to respond to climate change, it’s:
“It depends”
It depends on where you are working
and what you’re trying to achieve.

6. Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook

Strategies & Approaches

Menu of adaptation actions
• Structured process to
integrate climate
change considerations
into management
• Workbook approach
Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760

7. www.forestadaptation.org/demos
Adaptation Demonstrations
(real-world examples)

8. What actions can be taken to
enhance the ability of a system to
cope with change
and
meet conservation goals and
objectives?

9. Adaptation Workbook Process
Janowiak et al. 2014

10. Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
Management Goals
& Objectives
Climate Change
Impacts
Intent of Adaptation
(Option)
Make Idea Specific
(Strategy, Approach)
Action to Implement
(Tactic)
Challenges &
Opportunities
Why it’s important:
Helps connect the dots
from broad concepts
to specific actions for
implementation.

11. Adaptation Demonstrations
What are we learning?

12. Adaptation Demonstrations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
#projects
Ownership
Ontl et al. in review

13. Quantitative content analysis of adaptation planning documents (n=44)
 Regional: Laurentian Mixed Forest vs. Central Interior Broadleaf Forest
(Federal ownership)
 Ownership: Federal v. Private
(Laurentian Mixed Forest region)
Federal
Municipal
NGO
Private
State
Tribal
University

14. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Pests & pathogens
Soil moisture stress
Altered precipitation (seasonal)
Extreme precipitation
Warmer (seasonal)
Invasives
Longer growing season
Reduced snowpack/ frozen ground
Altered disturbance regimes
Increased wildfire
Increased deer populations
Warmer (annual)
Extreme storms (other than precip)
Increased precipitation (annual)
Increased soil freezing
CO2 fertilization
Early thaw/ late frost
Increase in southern spp.
Temperature extremes
Climate Impact
Frequency
Biological Stressors
Precipitation
Temperature
Disturbance
Other
What
climate
impacts
concern
managers
most?
Ontl et al. in review

15. What actions are managers considering
for climate change adaptation?

16. What actions are managers considering
for climate change adaptation?
Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate
Change
Trajectory
?
Increasing resources
needed to meet DFC

17. What actions are managers considering
for climate change adaptation?
RESISTANCE
 Improve defenses of
forest against change
 Maintain relatively
unchanged conditions
Millar et al. 2007

18. What actions are managers considering
for climate change adaptation?
RESISTANCE RESILIENCE
 Improve defenses of
forest against change
 Maintain relatively
unchanged conditions
 Accommodate some
degree of change
 Return to prior condition
after disturbance
Millar et al. 2007

19. What actions are managers considering
for climate change adaptation?
RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION
 Improve defenses of
forest against change
 Maintain relatively
unchanged conditions
 Accommodate some
degree of change
 Return to prior condition
after disturbance
 Facilitate change
 Enable ecosystem to
respond to new and
changing conditions
Millar et al. 2007

20. What actions are managers considering
for climate change adaptation?
RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION
Region Resistance Resilience Transition
Laurentian Mixed Forest 23.8% 48.1% 28.1%
Central Interior Forest 18.0% 37.3% 44.7%
Ontl et al. in review

21. Resist Change
Prevent the introduction and
establishment of invasive plant
species and remove existing
invasives (4)
Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)

22. Resist Change
Prioritize and protect sensitive or at-
risk species or communities (9)
www.forestadaptation.org/node/659

23. Enhance Resilience
Promote diverse age classes (2)
Maintain and restore diversity
of native tree species (3)
Retain biological legacies (6)
www.forestadaptation.org/node/375

24. Enhance Resilience
Maintain or restore soil quality and nutrient cycling (10)
www.forestadaptation.org/node/310

25. Transition and Transform Systems
Favor or restore native species that are expected to be
better adapted to future conditions (1)
www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake

26. Transition and Transform Systems
Emphasize drought- and heat-tolerant species and
populations (8)
www.forestadaptation.org/jerktail_mountain

27. Transition and Transform Systems
Emphasize drought- and heat-tolerant species and
populations (8)
www.forestadaptation.org/mte

28. What adaptation looks loke
Same actions–
climate change
just makes
them that
much more
important
Small “tweaks” that
improve effectiveness
New & different
actions to consider,
even some that may
seem wild & crazy
*not actual data; individual results will vary