Oral presentation at the 60th Annual Winter Meeting of the British Phycological Society, 4-7 Jan 2012, Newcastle, United Kingdom

1. Responses of the Macroalgal Key Species
Fucus serratus
Driving the Impact of Climate Change
on North Atlantic Rocky Shores
Jüterbock A. Coyer J.A. Tyberghein L.
Olsen J.L. Hoarau G.
Alexander.Juterbock@uin.no
BPS Annual Winter Meeting, Newcastle 2012
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 1 / 15

2. Introduction
Human impact on marine ecosystems
IC
[Halpern et al., 2010; Science]
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 2 / 15

3. Introduction
Recent warming in the North Atlantic
Shift of the 15°C isotherm
330 km north
1985 2000
[McMahon & Hays, 2006; Global Change Biol.]
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 3 / 15

4. Introduction
Main objective
What is the impact of climate change on the
North Atlantic intertidal ecosystem?
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 4 / 15

5. Introduction
Fucus serratus, a habitat-provisioning key-species on
North Atlantic rocky shores
e.g. [Fredriksen et al., 2005; Mar. Biol. Res.]
Glacial Refugia
Locations of glacial refugia based on: [Hoarau et al., 2007; Mol. Ecol.]; algal
frond from: [Køie et al., 2001; Der große Kosmos Strandführer].
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 5 / 15

6. Introduction
Fucus serratus, a habitat-provisioning key-species on
North Atlantic rocky shores
e.g. [Fredriksen et al., 2005; Mar. Biol. Res.]
Glacial Refugia
Locations of glacial refugia based on: [Hoarau et al., 2007; Mol. Ecol.]; algal
frond from: [Køie et al., 2001; Der große Kosmos Strandführer].
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 5 / 15

7. Introduction
Recent changes in southern edge populations
of F. serratus
© Coyer, J.A.
1999
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 6 / 15

8. Introduction
Recent changes in southern edge populations
of F. serratus
© Coyer, J.A.
1999
2010
Reduced reproductive capacity
[Viejo et al., 2011; Ecography]
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 6 / 15

9. Objectives
Specific aims
Responses of F. serratus
Distributional changes
Selection
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 7 / 15

10. Objectives
Specific aims
Responses of F. serratus
Distributional changes
Selection
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 7 / 15

11. Projects Distributional changes
Modelling the Ecological Niche of F. serratus
Present-day conditions
Bio-ORACLE database
[Tyberghein et al., 2011; Global Ecol. Biogeogr.].
Georeferenced Occurrences
Calcite (mol/m3)
Dissox (ml/l)
SST ( )
SAT ( )
Ecological Niche Model (Maxent [Phillips et al., 2006; Ecol. Model.])
2000 2100 ? 2200 ?
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 8 / 15

12. Projects Distributional changes
Modelling the Ecological Niche of F. serratus
Present-day conditions
Bio-ORACLE database
[Tyberghein et al., 2011; Global Ecol. Biogeogr.].
Georeferenced Occurrences
Calcite (mol/m3)
Dissox (ml/l)
SST ( )
SAT ( )
Ecological Niche Model (Maxent [Phillips et al., 2006; Ecol. Model.])
2000 2100 ? 2200 ?
A1B IPCC scenario changes
SST ( )
SAT ( )
SST ( )
SAT ( )
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 8 / 15

13. Projects Distributional changes
Drastic northward niche shift until 2200
Persistent habitat
Habitat loss 49%
Habitat gain 56%
Unsuitable habitat
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 9 / 15

14. Projects Distributional changes
Specific aims
Responses of F. serratus
Distributional change
Selection
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 10 / 15

15. Projects Selection
Genotyping of temporally paired samples
(50–75 ind./pop)
Sampling ∼ 2000 Sampling ∼ 2010
1 decade
of selection
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 11 / 15

16. Projects Selection
Genotyping of temporally paired samples
(50–75 ind./pop)
Sampling ∼ 2000 Sampling ∼ 2010
1 decade
of selection
Genotyping
31 microsatellites (20 EST-linked); ABI 3500xl Genetic Analyzer
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 11 / 15

17. Projects Selection
Genotyping of temporally paired samples
(50–75 ind./pop)
Sampling ∼ 2000 Sampling ∼ 2010
1 decade
of selection
Genotyping
31 microsatellites (20 EST-linked); ABI 3500xl Genetic Analyzer
Testing for
Changes in allelic richness
Genetic differentiation
Outlier loci
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 11 / 15

18. Projects Selection
Loss of genetic diversity at the southern distributional
margin
∼ 2000 ∼ 2010Allelic richness α
3.18
4.55
8.61
4.24
3.10
4.19
8.72
3.68*
−14%
*: p < 0.05
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 12 / 15

19. Projects Selection
Genetic differentiation over the past decade
∼ 2000 ∼ 2010
*: p < 0.05
0.044*
0.010*
0.008*
0.008*
FST
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 12 / 15

20. Projects Selection
Loci under selection
∼ 2000 ∼ 2010
*: p < 0.05
5%
0%
24%
14%
Outlier loci
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 12 / 15

21. Conclusions
Conclusions
Responses of F. serratus
Distributional change
Selection
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 13 / 15

22. Conclusions
Conclusions
Responses of F. serratus
Distributional change
drastic northward shift in absence of evolution and plasticity
Selection
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 13 / 15

23. Conclusions
Conclusions
Responses of F. serratus
Distributional change
drastic northward shift in absence of evolution and plasticity
Selection
significant genetic changes, but are they adaptive to climate change?
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 13 / 15

24. Conclusions
Overall conclusion
Climate change driven
ecosystem shift?
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 14 / 15

25. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
Jorge Fernandes
Ketil Eiane
Kurt Tande
Irina Smolina
Mark Powell
Marion Skog Nilsen
Kevin Klingan
Ellen Sirnes
Renate Fretheim Karlsen
Ann-Merete Siversten
Nina Ellingsen Høiskar
Heidi Klæboe Nilsen
Randi Restad Sjøvik
Frans Allmendingen
Tor Ove Dyping
Bjørnar Eggen
Kaspar Klaudiussen
Steinar Johnson
Morten Krogstad
Olivier De Clerck Heroen Verbruggen Klaas Pauly
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 15 / 15

26. Appendix
5 Appendix
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 1 / 5

27. Appendix
References I
Fredriksen, S.; Christie, H.; Saethre, B.A. (2005)
Species richness in macroalgae and macrofauna assemblages on Fucus
serratus L. (Phaeophyceae) and Zostera marina L. (Angiospermae) in
Skagerrak, Norway.
Marine Biology Research 1(1):2–19.
Halpern, B.S.; Walbridge, S.; Selkoe, K.A.; Kappel, C.V.; Micheli, F.;
D’Agrosa, C.; Bruno, J.F.; Casey, K.S.; Ebert, C.; Fox, H.E. and
others (2010)
A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems
Science 319(5856):948–952.
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 2 / 5

28. Appendix
References II
Hoarau, G.; Coyer, J.A.; Veldsink, J.H.; Stam, W.T.; Olsen, J.L.
(2007)
Glacial refugia and recolonization pathways in the brown seaweed
Fucus serratus
Molecular Ecology 16(17):3606–3616.
Køie, M.; Kristiansen, A.; Weitemeyer, S. (2001)
Der große Kosmos Strandführer.
Kosmos.
McMahon, C.R. & Hays, G.C. (2006)
Thermal niche, large-scale movements and implications of climate
change for a critically endangered marine vertebrate.
Global Change Biology 12(7):1330–1338.
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 3 / 5

29. Appendix
References III
Pearson, G.A.; Lago-Leston, A.; Mota, C. (2009)
Frayed at the edges: selective pressure and adaptive response to
abiotic stressors are mismatched in low diversity edge populations.
Journal of Ecology 97(3):450–462.
Phillips, S.J.; Anderson, R.P.; Schapire, R.E. (2006)
Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.
Ecological Modelling190(3-4):231–259.
Tyberghein, L.; Verbruggen, H.; Pauly, K.; Troupin, C.; Mineur, F.; De
Clerck, O. (2011)
Bio-ORACLE: a global environmental dataset for marine species
distribution modelling.
Global Ecology and Biogeography.
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 4 / 5

30. Appendix
References IV
Viejo, R.M.; Martínez, B.; Arrontes, J.; Astudillo, C.; Hernández, L.
(2011)
Reproductive patterns in central and marginal populations of a large
brown seaweed: drastic changes at the southern range limit.
Ecography 34(1):75–84.
Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 5 / 5