Managing coral reefs in the
face of climate change:
Is there any point?
Dr Paul Marshall
Director – Climate Change
Great B...
Healthy reef
Bleached reef
Damaged reef
Degraded reef
Is management futile?
Pre-climate change
Worst-case scenario
1950 2000 2100
Reefcondition
2050
20092009 tem
perature
Pre-climate change
Worst-case scenario
1950 2000 2100
Reefcondition
2050
20092009 tem
perature
Best-case scenario
RESILIEN...
A framework for management action
1.1. Understand problemUnderstand problem
Climate Change Vulnerability AssessmentClimate...
Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity
Climate Change & the GBR:
A Vulnerability Assessment
Introduction
Vulnerability
of species and
species
groups
Vulnerability
of GBR
habitats
Enabling
management
The Great Barri...
Prioritising management
Humans
Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity
Prioritising management
Resilience Analysis (corals)
Marshall &
Schuttenberg
2007
New science
Reducing nutrients increases bleaching threshold
Wooldridge and
Done, 2009
Adaptation Plan
Adapting management
1.1. Manage for process, not just stateManage for process, not just state
• Restore water quality
• Pr...
2.2. Effectively prioritise effort & resourcesEffectively prioritise effort & resources
• Urgency
• Importance
• Feasibili...
3.3. Manage for social-ecological resilienceManage for social-ecological resilience
• Resource-dependency
• Climate change...
Key messages
1.1. GHGs must be stabilisedGHGs must be stabilised
2.2. Management has never been moreManagement has never b...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Managing coral reefs in the face of climate change: Is there any point (IWC5 Presentation)

267 views

Published on

Paul Marshall, Director – Climate Change
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority

Presentation given during the 5th GEF Biennial International Waters Conference in Cairns, Australia (during the pre-conference workshop marine ecosystems, Global Change and Marine Resources).

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Managing coral reefs in the face of climate change: Is there any point (IWC5 Presentation)

  1. 1. Managing coral reefs in the face of climate change: Is there any point? Dr Paul Marshall Director – Climate Change Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
  2. 2. Healthy reef
  3. 3. Bleached reef
  4. 4. Damaged reef
  5. 5. Degraded reef
  6. 6. Is management futile? Pre-climate change Worst-case scenario 1950 2000 2100 Reefcondition 2050 20092009 tem perature
  7. 7. Pre-climate change Worst-case scenario 1950 2000 2100 Reefcondition 2050 20092009 tem perature Best-case scenario RESILIENCERESILIENCE Is management futile?
  8. 8. A framework for management action 1.1. Understand problemUnderstand problem Climate Change Vulnerability AssessmentClimate Change Vulnerability Assessment 2.2. Identify strategies for reducing riskIdentify strategies for reducing risk Resilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectorsResilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectors 3.3. Prioritise adaptation activitiesPrioritise adaptation activities Climate Change Adaptation PlanClimate Change Adaptation Plan 4.4. Build resilienceBuild resilience ImplementationImplementation
  9. 9. Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity Climate Change & the GBR: A Vulnerability Assessment
  10. 10. Introduction Vulnerability of species and species groups Vulnerability of GBR habitats Enabling management The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) Climate and climate change on the GBR Oceanography and climate change Resilience, climate change & the GBR Marine microbes Plankton Macroalgae Seagrasses Mangroves & tidal wetlands Reef-building corals Benthic invertebrates Fishes Sharks & Rays Seabirds Marine reptiles Marine mammals Coral reefs Pelagic systems Coasts and estuaries Islands and cays Geomorphological features Palaeoecology Industries and communities Vulnerability & management implications Climate Change & the GBR: A Vulnerability Assessment
  11. 11. Prioritising management Humans
  12. 12. Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity Prioritising management
  13. 13. Resilience Analysis (corals) Marshall & Schuttenberg 2007
  14. 14. New science Reducing nutrients increases bleaching threshold Wooldridge and Done, 2009
  15. 15. Adaptation Plan
  16. 16. Adapting management 1.1. Manage for process, not just stateManage for process, not just state • Restore water quality • Protect key functional groups • Protect refugia/critical habitats • Restore resilience of important components  Photo © Georgette Douwma / naturepl.com.
  17. 17. 2.2. Effectively prioritise effort & resourcesEffectively prioritise effort & resources • Urgency • Importance • Feasibility Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity Cost Values Management Priority Adapting management
  18. 18. 3.3. Manage for social-ecological resilienceManage for social-ecological resilience • Resource-dependency • Climate change as a common enemy • Converting stakeholders to champions Adapting management
  19. 19. Key messages 1.1. GHGs must be stabilisedGHGs must be stabilised 2.2. Management has never been moreManagement has never been more importantimportant 3.3. Management needs to adaptManagement needs to adapt • Resilience focus • Triage • Partnerships 4.4. Climate change is an opportunity, tooClimate change is an opportunity, too

×