1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QE Index moved higher for the second straight day, breaching
its resistances of the 55-day moving average and 13,750.0 on the
back of large volumes. The index gained momentum throughout the
session and concluded at the day’s highest point. We believe the
index has now set the stage for a further rally toward 13,850.0.
Moreover, both the indicators are positively poised. On the flip side,
the index may find support at the 13,750.0 and 13,700.0 levels.
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Pullback
QEWS has been drifting lower since forming a tweezer-top formation
at around QR192.80. Moreover, the stock penetrated below its
important support of QR188.00, along with both the 21-day and 55-
day moving averages in a single swoop. With volumes picking up on
the decline and the RSI showing negative slope, QEWS may
continue to move lower and test QR186.0, followed by QR184.00.
However, the stock may halt its pullback if it climbs above QR187.36.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QERI Index ended the session in the green for the second
consecutive session and gained 1.13% to settle near the 4,600.0
level. The index got off to a positive start and made further headway,
recapturing the 21-day moving average for the first time since mid-
September. Moreover, the index developed a bullish Marubozu
candlestick formation, indicating a likely continuation of this upmove.
Conversely, 4,550.0 may provide intermediate support.
Ezdan Holding Group: Short-Term – Pullback
ERES witnessed a gap-up opening and reached an intraday high of
QR20.95, but reversed and closed below its day’s opening with minor
gains. Moreover, ERES developed a shooting star candlestick
formation on daily charts, which usually signifies exhaustion on the
part of buyers and often leads to a trend reversal. We believe ERES
may retreat and test the moving averages. However, the stock may
move higher if it manages to reclaim the QR20.35 level.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Upmove
BRES built on its gains and surpassed the resistance of QR41.80
yesterday. The stock has been moving along the ascending trendline
over the past few days and is gaining strength. With both the
momentum indicators pointing higher, BRES’s preferred direction
seems to be on the upside. We believe the stock may advance further
and test QR42.50, followed by QR43.20. However, traders may need
to be cautious if the stock slips below the QR41.80 level.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Bounce Back
GISS gained 1.67% to clear the important resistances of QR121.00
and the 55-day moving average, along with the descending trendline,
which had restricted its bullish move in the past. Moreover, GISS
found support near the 21-day moving average and formed a sizable
bullish candlestick on daily charts, indicating a positive signal. We
believe the stock may surpass QR122.50 and test QR124.10.
However, a dip below QR121.00 may drag the stock down.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,775.89 UP UP 13,753.36 13,700.00 13,847.11 13,909.87 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,595.86 UP DOWN 4,550.00 4,528.58 4,638.81 4,672.95 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
52.50
DOWN
DOWN
51.80
50.40
52.80
53.40 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 74.80 UP UP 74.30 73.40 75.00 76.25
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
59.80
UP
FLAT
59.20
58.00
60.50
61.30 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 115.90 UP UP 115.00 113.00 117.40 118.90
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
88.60
UP
UP
88.00
87.30
89.00
89.80 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 98.30 FLAT FLAT 98.00 97.00 99.00 100.00 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
126.40
DOWN
DOWN
124.75
121.50
126.50
128.80 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
195.00
UP
UP
194.60
193.50
197.70
199.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 186.50 DOWN DOWN 186.00 184.00 188.00 190.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)*
122.00
UP
UP
121.00
119.50
122.50
124.10 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 50.80 DOWN DOWN 49.75 47.70 51.00 52.40 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)*
41.85
UP
UP
41.80
41.00
42.50
43.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 26.85 DOWN DOWN 26.70 26.45 27.00 27.35
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)*
20.10
UP
UP
19.36
18.97
20.35
20.60 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 24.30 UP UP 24.25 23.89 25.00 25.50 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
127.90
DOWN
DOWN
126.00
124.90
128.00
129.70 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 21.10 UP FLAT 20.79 20.10 21.60 21.97 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
24.17
UP
DOWN
24.12
23.90
24.45
24.61 Milaha (QNNS QD) 97.90 UP UP 97.80 96.50 98.30 100.10