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15 October Daily technical trader
1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QE Index extended its gains and moved higher around 33 points
(0.24%) to settle above the 13,500.0 psychological level. After
moving down toward 13,350.0 yesterday, the index once again
witnesses a smart recovery sustaining its rebound for the second
straight session. With the RSI showing signs of recovery, the index
may continue its bounce-back and approach the 13,550.0-13,580.0
levels. Conversely, the 13,450.0 level may provide strong support.
Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Rebound
CBQK gained 0.56% and cleared the stiff resistance of the
descending trendline, which had restricted its bullish move in the past.
With volumes also picking up it seems potential buyers are stepping
in. We believe the current higher push has enough steam to surpass
QR72.40 and the 21-day moving average, targeting QR73.40.
However, any retreat below QR71.50 may pull the stock down. The
RSI, which is in the buy zone, supports this bullish sentiment.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index ended the session in the red losing marginally by -
0.03% to close at 4,540.64. The index failed to capitalize on its
rebound witnessed on Monday and retreated. Meanwhile, the index
faces its strong resistance at 4,585.0, whereas support is seen at
4,529.0. A move above or below these levels may decide the next
direction of the index, until then it may oscillate in the above range.
Traders are advised to remain on the sidelines for now.
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev.: Short-Term – Pullback
MRDS has been experiencing selling pressure over the past few days
and is underperforming. Moreover, the stock breached its support of
QR22.90 and continued its decline, which is a negative sign. The
prognosis for the near-term suggests a further downside with both the
RSI and the MACD lines showing weakness. We believe the stock
may drift lower toward QR22.44. However, the stock may halt its
pullback if it manages to reclaim the QR22.90 level.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Rebound
QIBK respected its support of QR111.0 and rebounded on the back of
increased participation. The stock is now approaching the 55-day
moving average. If QIBK can move above the 55-day moving
average, it will provide confirmation that the upmove is underway
targeting QR115.0. On the other hand, any failure to move above the
55-day moving average may result in consolidation. Meanwhile, the
RSI is moving up in a bullish manner, indicating strength.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Bounce Back
IQCD has been witnessing a steady decline since topping the current
rally at QR198.0; however, it found support near QR183.0 and
reversed yesterday. We believe based on the current price swing the
stock may clear the 55-day moving average, targeting QR186.40.
Further, the RSI has turned flat after moving down over the past few
days, indicating the stock may further continue its rebound. However,
any dip below QR184.50 may pull the stock to test QR183.0.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,511.11 DOWN DOWN 13,500.00 13,447.17 13,584.34 13,650.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,540.64 DOWN DOWN 4,528.58 4,481.57 4,584.50 4,638.81 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
53.40
DOWN
DOWN
52.80
51.80
54.00
55.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 72.00 DOWN UP 71.50 70.70 72.40 73.40
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
57.50
DOWN
DOWN
57.00
56.20
58.00
59.20 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 113.10 DOWN FLAT 113.00 111.00 115.00 117.40
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
86.30
DOWN
DOWN
85.90
84.90
87.80
89.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 99.10 FLAT UP 98.00 97.00 100.00 100.90 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
126.90
DOWN
FLAT
126.50
121.50
128.80
130.00 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)*
185.40
DOWN
FLAT
184.50
183.00
186.40
188.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 187.00 DOWN FLAT 186.00 184.00 188.00 190.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
117.60
DOWN
DOWN
115.00
111.90
118.10
119.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.30 DOWN DOWN 55.20 54.30 56.10 57.70 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
40.45
DOWN
DOWN
40.20
39.70
41.00
41.80 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 27.70 DOWN DOWN 27.35 27.00 27.85 28.20
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)
19.85
FLAT
DOWN
19.71
19.36
20.04
20.36 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD)* 22.75 DOWN DOWN 22.45 22.09 22.90 23.35 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
131.10
DOWN
UP
129.70
128.00
132.00
134.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 20.74 DOWN DOWN 20.40 20.00 20.79 21.00 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
24.04
DOWN
DOWN
23.90
23.69
24.20
24.45 Milaha (QNNS QD) 94.00 DOWN DOWN 92.90 91.30 94.50 95.10