QNBFS Daily Technical Trader Qatar - September 07, 2023 التحليل الفني اليومي ...
21 October Daily technical trader
1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index ended the session in the red losing around 185 points
(-1.4%), following a rebound in the previous session. After reaching
an intraday high of 13,220.02, the index took a U-turn and retreated,
as traders offloaded their positions. Further, the index slipped below
its psychological levels of 13,100.0 and 13,000.0 in a single swoop,
and continued to move southward. Meanwhile, the index has a strong
support at 12,900.0, which if penetrated may trigger a sell-off.
Milaha: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QNNS advanced 1.49% to breach its important resistances of the 55-
day moving average and QR94.50 in a single trading session. We
believe the current higher push has enough steam to surpass the 21-
day moving average, targeting QR96.50. However, any retreat below
the 55-day moving average may pull the stock down to test QR94.50.
Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence and is in the buy
zone, supporting this positive technical outlook for the stock.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index shed around 81 points (-1.8%) and dipped below the
4,400.0 and 4,350.0 levels, after ending on a strong note on Sunday.
The index got off to a positive start and momentarily moved above its
important resistance of 4,445.0, but surrendered all its gains in the
later stage to languish in the negative terrain thereafter. Meanwhile,
the index needs to move above 4,376.0 in order to proceed ahead;
else it may drift further lower.
Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pullback
QIIK failed to make any further headway above QR84.90 and
declined. The stock has been experiencing sustained selling pressure
over the past few weeks and is drifting lower. Moreover, QIIK
developed a bearish engulfing candlestick formation on daily charts,
indicating a likely continuation of this pullback. With both the
indicators pointing down, the stock may continue its decline and test
QR81.0. However, a close above QR83.0 may halt its pullback.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Rebound
GISS bucked the bearish trend and gained 0.5% yesterday. We
believe the stock could now approach toward its important resistance
of QR111.90. If GISS manages to move above this level, it may spark
additional buying interest and push the stock further up toward
QR115.0. Meanwhile, the RSI has turned flat from the declining
mode, indicating a possibility of an advance. However, any failure to
move above QR111.90 may pull the stock down.
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev.: Short-Term – Pullback
MRDS penetrated below its support of QR21.50 yesterday, after
failing to surpass its resistance of QR22.09 on Sunday. The stock is
making lower lows on the charts since penetrating below the 21-day
moving average. We believe MRDS may continue to underperform
and drift lower to test QR21.20. Any sustained weakness below
QR21.20 may drag the stock further down toward QR20.55.
However, MRDS may get some relief if it closes above QR21.50.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,962.67 DOWN DOWN 12,939.80 12,768.17 13,019.55 13,100.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,342.70 DOWN DOWN 4,341.10 4,301.89 4,376.45 4,400.00 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
50.20
DOWN
DOWN
48.90
47.20
50.40
51.80 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 70.70 DOWN FLAT 69.70 68.40 70.70 71.50
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
56.50
DOWN
DOWN
55.80
54.90
57.00
58.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 109.00 DOWN DOWN 107.00 104.50 110.00 111.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)*
82.00
DOWN
DOWN
81.00
79.90
83.00
84.90 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 97.70 DOWN UP 97.00 94.60 99.00 100.00 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
122.10
DOWN
DOWN
121.50
118.20
124.75
126.50 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
182.80
DOWN
DOWN
182.50
180.00
184.00
186.40 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 181.30 DOWN DOWN 180.00 178.18 182.00 184.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)*
111.20
DOWN
DOWN
109.00
104.50
111.90
115.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 48.90 DOWN DOWN 48.05 47.70 49.75 51.00 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
39.50
DOWN
DOWN
39.20
38.40
39.70
40.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 27.25 DOWN DOWN 26.70 26.45 27.35 27.85
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)
18.10
DOWN
DOWN
18.10
17.50
18.50
18.97 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD)* 21.31 DOWN DOWN 21.20 20.55 21.50 22.09 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
126.20
DOWN
DOWN
126.00
124.50
128.00
129.70 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.45 DOWN DOWN 19.29 18.75 20.00 20.40 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
23.29
DOWN
DOWN
23.00
22.48
23.40
23.90 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 95.40 FLAT UP 94.50 93.00 96.50 97.80