The document provides a technical analysis of the QE Index and key Qatari stocks, identifying short-term pullback trends. It finds that the QE Index and Al Rayan Islamic Index have shed points in recent sessions and momentum indicators point downward, suggesting further declines. Similarly, it identifies short-term pullback trends for Qatar Electricity & Water Co., Qatar Islamic Bank, Al Meera Consumer Goods Co., and Barwa Real Estate Co. based on losses of late and bearish technical indicators. Support and resistance levels are also provided to analyze future price directions.
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24 September Daily technical trader
1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Pullback
The QE Index continued its southbound journey for the third
consecutive session and shed around 111 points (-0.79%) to settle
near 14,000.0. The index remained in a bearish mode throughout the
day and slipped below the 14,100.0 and 14,050.0 levels on the back
of sustained selling. With both the momentum indicators pointing
down, the index may retrace toward 13,950.0. However, the outlook
may turn bullish, if the index moves above the 14,100.0 level.
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Pullback
QEWS has been drifting lower over the past few days since topping
the current rally at QR196.50. Moreover, volumes were also large on
the decline, which is a negative sign. Further, both the indicators are
looking weak. We believe although the stock is sitting exactly on its
immediate support of QR190.0, it is unlikely to cling onto it and may
move down further to test QR188.0. Conversely, the stock may
rebound, if it manages to stay above QR190.0 on a closing basis.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pullback
The QERI Index ended the session in red with a cut of over 1 percent
for the third straight session. The index caved in under selling
pressure and penetrated below the important supports of 4,770.0 and
the 21-day moving average in a single swoop. The current prognosis
implies further downside toward 4,700.0, with the RSI showing a
negative slope and the MACD growing in a bearish manner.
However, a close above the 4,750.0 level may attract buyers.
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co.: Short-Term – Pullback
MERS has been making lower lows on the chart since moving below
the 21-day moving average. We believe the stock may continue to
underperform and head down toward its next support of QR181.40.
Further, the RSI is in a downtrend mode, while the MACD is widening
away from the signal line in a bearish manner, indicating sustained
weakness. Meanwhile, the stock needs to move above QR185.0 to
attract buying interest, until then it may move lower.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Pullback
BRES continued on its declining mode and breached the supports of
the 21-day and the 55-day moving averages. The stock has been
moving along the descending trendline over the past few days and is
registering losses. We believe the stock may continue to weaken
further and test QR40.20 on the downside. However, a close above
both the moving averages may halt its pullback. Meanwhile, both the
momentum indicators are providing bearish signals.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pullback
QIBK failed to make further headway above QR118.0 and retreated,
breaching its important support of QR117.40. Moreover, the stock
developed a bearish Marubozu candlestick formation, indicating a
likely continuation of this pullback. We believe the stock may drift
down toward QR115.0 and any sustained weakness below this level
may pull it further down to test QR111.0. Meanwhile, both the
momentum indicators are pointing down.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 14,006.46 FLAT UP 13,993.34 13,909.87 14,102.54 14,225.39 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,723.42 DOWN UP 4,707.59 4,672.95 4,750.00 4,770.31 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
56.10
DOWN
UP
55.80
54.00
57.30
58.20 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 72.90 UP UP 72.40 70.70 73.40 74.30
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
60.10
DOWN
FLAT
59.90
58.80
61.00
62.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 115.60 DOWN UP 115.00 111.00 117.40 118.90
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
92.30
UP
UP
91.50
90.50
93.50
96.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 98.30 DOWN UP 97.00 95.20 99.00 100.00
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)
22.40
DOWN
FLAT
21.99
21.70
22.49
22.85 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
128.60
DOWN
UP
126.50
122.50
128.80
130.00
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD)*
183.00
DOWN
DOWN
183.00
181.60
185.00
187.80 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
193.00
FLAT
UP
192.10
191.00
193.50
194.60 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 190.00 UP UP 190.00 188.00 192.00 194.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
126.00
UP
UP
124.10
122.50
127.00
129.80 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 58.60 DOWN UP 57.70 56.20 59.00 60.60 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)*
41.10
DOWN
DOWN
41.00
40.20
41.80
42.50 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 29.30 DOWN UP 29.05 28.70 29.50 30.00 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
135.00
UP
UP
133.90
132.00
135.90
138.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 21.70 FLAT UP 21.40 21.00 21.97 22.30 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
24.80
FLAT
UP
24.45
23.90
24.90
25.30 Milaha (QNNS QD) 96.90 UP UP 96.50 95.10 97.80 98.80