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QE Index Stocks Technical Analysis & Short-Term Outlook
1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QE Index gained for the second straight session and rose
around 252 points (1.93%) to settle above the 13,300.0 mark. The
index witnessed a gap-up opening and continued to move northward,
breaching many important psychological levels on the back of
sustained buying. We believe the index will continue its bullish
momentum and advance further toward 13,350.0. Conversely, the
13,300.0 level may provide psychological support.
Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Rebound
QIIK halted its bearish spell on Tuesday and gained further yesterday,
indicating the downmove could be over. Moreover, the stock bounced
back to clear its resistances of QR83.0 and QR84.90 in a single
trading session on the back of large volumes. We believe QIIK may
now march toward its next resistance of QR86.10. However, any
retreat below QR84.90 may result in a pullback. Meanwhile, the RSI
is moving up in a bullish manner, indicating strength.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QERI Index showcased an enthusiastic performance by rallying
around 102 points (2.33%) to close at 4,480.10. The index extended
its gains and made further headway, surpassing the 4,400.0 and
4,450.0 levels in a single swoop. The index has now strongly bounced
back, keeping its upmove intact. We believe based on the current
higher push, the index has enough steam to proceed toward 4,529.0.
On the flip side, the index may find support near the 4,450.0 level.
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Rebound
QEWS developed a small bullish candlestick formation on Tuesday,
and rebounded strongly around 3.27% yesterday, thus confirming its
trend reversal. Moreover, QEWS breached both its resistances of
QR186.0 and QR188.0, along with the 21-day and 55-day moving
averages in a single swoop. With the RSI showing bullish divergence,
the stock may surpass QR190.0 to target QR192.0. However, a dip
below the 21-day moving average may pull the stock down.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Upmove
GISS jumped 5.66% and maintained its positive momentum to breach
both its important resistances of QR115.0 and QR118.10. The stock
has been moving up since the past few days and is showing strength.
The spike in volumes and the RSI being in the buy zone suggest that
GISS may move above QR119.50, and advance further toward the
55-day and 21-day moving averages. However, any failure to clear
QR119.50 may result in consolidation.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Upmove
BRES built on its gains and cleared the resistances of QR40.20 and
the 21-day moving average on the back of increased participation.
The stock also developed a sizable bullish candlestick formation on
daily charts, indicating a likely continuation of this upmove. Further,
the RSI in the buy zone supports this bullish sentiment. We believe
the stock may surpass the 55-day moving average and proceed
toward QR41.0. However, a dip below QR40.72 may halt its upmove.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,328.62 DOWN DOWN 13,300.00 13,195.88 13,350.54 13,447.17 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,480.10 DOWN DOWN 4,444.86 4,400.00 4,528.58 4,550.00 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
52.70
DOWN
DOWN
51.80
50.40
52.80
54.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 70.80 DOWN FLAT 70.70 69.70 71.50 72.40
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
57.80
DOWN
DOWN
57.00
55.80
58.00
59.20 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 112.80 FLAT DOWN 111.00 110.00 113.00 115.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)*
85.40
DOWN
DOWN
84.90
83.00
86.10
87.30 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 98.50 FLAT UP 97.00 94.60 99.00 100.00 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
125.30
DOWN
DOWN
124.75
121.50
126.50
128.80 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
187.20
FLAT
UP
186.40
184.00
188.50
190.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 189.50 UP UP 188.00 186.00 190.00 192.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)*
119.50
FLAT
FLAT
118.10
115.00
119.50
121.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 50.00 DOWN DOWN 49.75 48.05 51.00 52.40 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)*
40.80
UP
FLAT
40.20
39.70
41.00
41.80 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 27.95 DOWN DOWN 27.85 27.35 28.20 28.45
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)
18.57
DOWN
DOWN
18.50
18.10
18.97
19.36 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 22.55 DOWN DOWN 22.09 21.50 22.75 23.00 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
125.80
DOWN
DOWN
124.90
123.70
126.00
128.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 20.10 DOWN DOWN 20.00 19.29 20.40 20.79 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
23.40
DOWN
DOWN
23.00
22.48
23.40
23.90 Milaha (QNNS QD) 95.60 FLAT UP 94.50 93.00 96.50 97.80