The document provides a technical analysis of the QE Index and key Qatari stocks to consider. It finds that the QE Index and most mentioned stocks are in an upmove in the short-term. Specifically, the QE Index is approaching resistance at 13,584, Nakilat has bounced back above resistances and may continue rising to QR24.45, and Qatar Islamic Bank cleared resistances and is expected to reach QR117.40. Most other stocks analyzed, including Industries Qatar, Mazya Qatar Real Estate Development, and Al Rayan Islamic Index, are also in short-term upmove modes.
QNBFS Daily Technical Trader Qatar - September 07, 2023 التحليل الفني اليومي ...
QE Index Stocks Technical Analysis
1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QE Index extended its winning streak for the fourth straight
session and rose around 78 points (0.6%). The index got off to a
positive start and surpassed the 13,500.0 psychological level, on the
back of its bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the index is now rapidly
approaching its next important resistance of 13,584.0. Any move
above this level may start a new phase of higher wave. On the flip
side, the index could find support at the 13,500.0 level.
Nakilat: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QGTS advanced 2.4% and surpassed the resistances of QR24.12
and the 21-day moving average on the back of large volumes. We
believe based on the current higher push, the stock may continue to
proceed further toward QR24.45, which is also in proximity to the 55-
day moving average. However, a dip below QR24.12 may pull the
stock down. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence, thus
supporting this positive sentiment.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QERI Index continued its northward journey and moved higher
around 26 points (0.6%) to settle near 4,550.0. The index cleared its
important resistance of 4,529.0 and made further headway, as the
bulls keep on its hold over the bears. With both the indicators
providing positive signals, we believe the index will further continue its
rally toward the 21-day moving average followed by 4,639.0.
Conversely, the 4529.0 level may now provide immediate support.
Mazya Qatar Real Estate Dev.: Short-Term – Upmove
MRDS surpassed the resistances of QR23.35 along with both the 21-
day and 55-day moving averages in a single trading session
yesterday. We believe this strong breach of resistances has bullish
implications and provides an upside target of QR23.89. Moreover, the
RSI is showing signs of strength, indicating the likely possibility of a
further rise. However, any decline below the 55-day moving average
may result in a pullback.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove
QIBK gained 1.3% and cleared the resistances of the 55-day moving
average and QR115.0 in a single swoop. Moreover, the stock ended
in a small bullish candlestick formation on the daily chart, indication a
likely continuation of this upmove. Further, the RSI is in the buy zone,
while the MACD has crossed the signal line in a positive manner.
Traders may consider buying the stock at the current level for an
immediate target of QR117.40 with a strict stop loss of QR115.0.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove
IQCD built on its gains and moved above its important resistance of
QR191.50. The stock has been showing strength since moving above
the 55-day moving average and is currently in upmove mode. With
both the indicators providing bullish signals, IQCD’s preferred
direction seems to be on the upside. We believe the stock may further
extend its gains and clear QR193.50 to target QR194.60. However,
any failure to surpass QR193.50 may halt its upmove.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,544.04 FLAT DOWN 13,500.00 13,447.17 13,584.34 13,650.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,548.22 FLAT DOWN 4,528.58 4,500.00 4,600.00 4,638.81 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
52.90
DOWN
DOWN
52.80
51.80
53.40
54.10 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 72.40 UP UP 71.50 70.70 72.50 73.40
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
58.40
FLAT
DOWN
58.00
57.00
59.20
60.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 116.00 UP UP 115.00 113.00 117.40 118.90
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
87.90
FLAT
FLAT
87.30
86.10
88.00
89.80 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 98.20 FLAT UP 97.00 94.60 99.00 100.00 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
127.00
FLAT
DOWN
126.50
124.75
128.80
131.50 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)*
193.30
UP
UP
191.50
190.00
193.50
194.60 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 189.60 UP UP 188.00 186.00 190.00 192.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
119.70
FLAT
DOWN
119.50
118.10
121.00
122.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 50.20 DOWN DOWN 49.75 48.05 51.00 52.40 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
41.00
UP
FLAT
40.20
39.70
41.00
41.80 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 28.65 UP DOWN 28.45 28.20 29.05 29.50
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)
18.70
DOWN
DOWN
18.50
18.10
18.97
19.36 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD)* 23.62 UP FLAT 23.35 23.00 23.89 24.25 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
126.20
DOWN
DOWN
126.00
124.90
128.00
129.70 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 20.39 DOWN DOWN 20.00 19.75 20.79 21.00 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)*
24.21
UP
FLAT
24.12
23.90
24.45
24.61 Milaha (QNNS QD) 96.70 UP UP 96.50 95.10 97.80 98.20