The document provides a technical analysis of the QE Index and key Qatari stocks, identifying short-term pullback trends. It finds that the QE Index and Al Rayan Islamic Index have fallen over the past six days and may continue declining. Several stocks like Gulf International Services, Ooredoo, Barwa Real Estate Co., and Milaha are also seen as likely to pull back further in the short term. However, support levels are identified that could halt or reverse the declines for these indexes and stocks.
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1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Pullback
The QE Index extended its bearish spell for the sixth straight session
and fell around 40 points (-0.29%) slipping below the 13,850.0 mark.
The index has been in corrective mode and is moving along the
descending trendline over the past few days. We believe based on
the current scenario traders are likely to witness further retracement
toward 13,800.0, followed by 13,750.0. On the flip side, the index
needs to close above 13,900.0 in order to attract buying interest.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Pullback
GISS has been encountering stiff resistance of the descending
trendline and is struggling to move above it over the past few days.
GISS penetrated below its important support of QR124.10 after
holding above it, which is a negative sign. Further, both the indicators
are providing bearish signals. We believe the stock may continue its
decline and test the 21-day moving average. However, a close above
QR124.10 may halt its pullback.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pullback
The QERI Index ended the session in the red with a cut of around 19
points (-0.40%) for the sixth consecutive day and closed down at
4,676.73. The index momentarily managed to move above the
4,700.0 mark, but failed to hold on its gains and reversed as the bears
once again proved to be more dominant than the bulls. We believe
the index may continue to weaken further and test lower levels as
long as it stays below the 4,700.0 level.
Ooredoo: Short-Term – Pullback
ORDS failed to make any further headway above QR138.50 and
retreated. Moreover, the stock developed a bearish Marubozu
candlestick formation, which indicates a likely continuation of this
pullback. We believe although the stock is trading close to its
immediate support of QR135.90, it is unlikely to cling onto it and drift
down further to test QR134.0. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving down
toward the mid-line in a negative manner.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Pullback
BRES extended its losses and moved down further yesterday. The
stock has been in declining mode since topping the current rally at
QR43.20 and is experiencing selling pressure over the past few days.
We believe the stock may continue its underperformance and move
lower to test QR40.20. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are
indicating sustained weakness. However, BRES may get some relief
if it closes above the QR41.0 level.
Milaha: Short-Term – Pullback
QNNS breached its support of QR96.50 on Thursday and further
declined yesterday, penetrating below the 21-day moving average,
thus confirming its pullback. Notably, volumes were also large on the
dip, indicating continued weakness. With both the momentum
indicators pointing down, QNNS’ preferred direction seems to be on
the downside toward QR95.10. However, the stock may rebound if it
manages to reclaim the 21-day moving average.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,835.01 DOWN UP 13,800.00 13,753.36 13,847.11 13,909.87 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,676.73 DOWN UP 4,672.95 4,638.81 4,707.59 4,750.00 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
55.40
DOWN
DOWN
55.00
54.00
55.80
57.30 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 71.50 DOWN UP 70.70 70.10 71.50 72.40
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
58.90
DOWN
DOWN
58.00
56.20
59.20
59.90 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 113.00 DOWN FLAT 111.00 110.00 115.00 117.40
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
89.50
DOWN
UP
89.00
87.80
90.50
91.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 98.10 DOWN UP 97.00 95.20 99.00 100.00
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)
22.15
DOWN
DOWN
21.99
21.70
22.49
22.85 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
130.50
FLAT
UP
128.80
126.50
131.50
132.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD)
183.00
DOWN
DOWN
181.60
180.00
183.00
185.00 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
191.00
DOWN
UP
191.00
190.00
192.10
193.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 189.00 DOWN UP 188.00 186.00 190.00 192.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)*
124.00
FLAT
UP
122.50
121.00
124.10
125.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 58.00 DOWN FLAT 57.70 56.20 59.00 60.60 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)*
40.55
DOWN
DOWN
40.20
39.70
41.00
41.80 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 29.10 DOWN FLAT 29.05 28.70 29.50 30.00 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)*
136.00
UP
UP
135.90
133.90
138.50
140.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 21.20 DOWN UP 20.79 20.20 21.40 21.97 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
24.45
DOWN
UP
24.45
23.90
24.90
25.30 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 95.80 DOWN FLAT 95.10 94.50 96.50 97.80