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16 October Daily technical trader
1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index ended the day in the red losing around 182 points (-
1.35%) after sustaining its gains over the past two sessions. The
index failed to make any further headway toward 13,550.0 and
retreated breaching many important psychological levels. Meanwhile,
the index has its immediate psychological support at 13,300.0; if level
gets penetrated, that may trigger selling pressure. Conversely, a
close above 13,350.0 may keep its upward hopes intact.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Pullback
GISS has been experiencing a steady decline since moving below
the 21-day moving average. Moreover, the stock penetrated below
the key support of QR115.0 with increased volumes, after managing
to defend this level several times before providing a bearish signal.
We believe with both the indicators pointing down, the stock may
experience further weakness and move lower to test QR111.90.
Conversely, a close above QR115.0 may attract buying interest.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pullback
The QERI Index extended its losses for the second consecutive
session and fell around 59 points (-1.30%). The index remained in
bearish mode and slipped below its important supports of 4,529.0 and
4,500.0, caving under selling pressure. With both the momentum
indicators looking weak, it seems the index may further drift lower
toward 4,450.0. On the flip side, the index may rebound if it manages
to reclaim the 4,500.0 level on a closing basis.
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev.: Short-Term – Pullback
MRDS continued its declining trend and further drifted below its
support of QR22.45 yesterday. Moreover, the stock developed a
bearish Marubozu candlestick formation on the daily charts,
suggesting the stock may continue its pullback. With the RSI moving
down, and the MACD growing in a bearish manner, it seems the
stock may move lower toward QR22.09. However, MRDS may get
some relief if it manages to climb above the QR22.45 level.
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Pullback
QEWS witnesses sustained selling pressure and penetrated below its
supports of QR186.0 and QR184.0, along with the 55-day moving
average in a single swoop. Notably, volumes were also large on the
decline, indicating a negative sign. We believe although the stock is
trading close to its immediate support of QR182.0, it may not cling
onto it and decline further to test QR180.0. Meanwhile, both the
momentum indicators are providing bearish signals.
Nakilat: Short-Term – Pullback
QGTS is tagging lower lows on the charts since topping the current
rally at QR25.30. Further, the stock breached its supports of QR23.90
and QR23.40 in a single trading session on the back of increased
participation, indicating weakness. We believe this strong breach of
supports has bearish implications and provides a downside target of
QR23.0. However, a close above QR23.40 may halt its pullback.
Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are in downtrend mode.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,329.02 DOWN DOWN 13,300.00 13,195.88 13,350.54 13,400.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,481.68 DOWN DOWN 4,468.06 4,444.86 4,500.00 4,528.58 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
52.90
DOWN
DOWN
52.80
51.80
54.00
55.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 71.00 DOWN FLAT 70.70 69.90 71.50 72.40
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
57.40
DOWN
DOWN
57.00
56.20
58.00
59.20 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 112.80 DOWN FLAT 111.00 110.00 113.00 115.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
85.00
DOWN
DOWN
84.90
83.00
85.90
87.80 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 99.00 FLAT UP 98.00 97.00 100.00 100.90 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
124.00
DOWN
DOWN
121.50
118.20
126.50
128.80 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
182.90
DOWN
DOWN
181.00
180.00
183.00
184.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 182.10 DOWN DOWN 182.00 180.00 184.00 186.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)*
114.00
DOWN
DOWN
111.90
109.00
115.00
118.10 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.00 DOWN DOWN 54.30 52.20 55.20 56.10 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
40.10
DOWN
DOWN
39.70
39.20
40.20
41.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 27.65 DOWN DOWN 27.35 27.00 27.85 28.20
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)
19.45
DOWN
DOWN
19.36
19.00
19.71
20.04 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD)* 22.30 DOWN DOWN 22.09 21.35 22.45 22.90 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
126.10
DOWN
DOWN
126.00
124.50
128.00
129.70 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 20.46 DOWN DOWN 20.40 20.00 20.79 21.00 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)*
23.28
DOWN
DOWN
23.00
22.45
23.40
23.90 Milaha (QNNS QD) 92.20 DOWN DOWN 91.30 90.10 93.00 94.50