The document provides a technical analysis of the QE Index and key Qatari stocks, identifying short-term pullback trends. It finds that the QE Index, Al Rayan Islamic Index, and most analyzed stocks like Medicare Group, Barwa Real Estate, and Qatar International Islamic Bank are in short-term downtrends and recommends levels to watch for further weakness or potential rebounds. The analysis also provides historical trend data and support and resistance levels to inform traders' and investors' short and long-term perspectives.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Pullback
The QE Index ended the session in the red with a sharp cut of
around 415 points (-3.0%) to settle near 13,400.0. The index
witnessed a gap-down opening and remained in bearish mode,
penetrating below many important psychological supports along with
the 55-day moving average. We believe traders are likely to witness
further weakness and the index may drift down toward 13,350.0.
Conversely, a close above 13,450.0 may attract buying interest.
Medicare Group: Short-Term – Pullback
MCGS after witnessing a brief period of consolidation dipped below
the important supports of QR128.80 and QR126.50 along with the 21-
day moving average. Moreover, the stock developed a bearish
Marubozu candlestick formation, indicating a likely continuation of this
pullback. Further, the RSI has shown a negative slope. We believe
the stock may not cling onto its immediate support of the 55-day
moving average and continue its decline toward QR121.50.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pullback
The QERI Index fell drastically losing around 151 points (-3.22%),
caving under sustained selling pressure. The index made a weak start
to the day and further retreated breaching its important supports of
4,600.0 and the 55-day moving average in a single swoop. With both
the momentum indicators providing bearish signals, the index may
continue to drift lower toward 4,500.0. On the flip side, if the index
manages to climb above 4,584.0, it may rebound.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Pullback
BRES has been facing stiff resistance of the descending trendline and
has been unable to clear it even after multiple rejected attempts.
Further, the stock breached its supports of QR41.0 and QR40.20
providing a bearish signal. The prognosis of the current time implies a
further downside and the stock may test QR39.70. However, if the
stock manages to reclaim QR40.20 it may halt its pullback.
Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators suggest weakness.
Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Pullback
MARK failed to make any further headway above QR56.0 and
reversed penetrating below the supports of the 55-day moving
average and QR54.0 in a single trading session. Notably, volumes
were also large on the decline, indicating a negative sign. We believe
the stock may continue to weaken further and move lower to test
QR52.80, followed by QR51.80. However, MARK may get some relief
if it moves above QR54.0. Meanwhile, the RSI is pointing down.
Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pullback
QIIK has been moving along the descending trendline over the past
few days and is in declining mode. Moreover, the stock penetrated
below its supports of QR89.0 and QR87.80 along with the 55-day
moving average, which has bearish implications. Further, the RSI is
drifting down and has enough room before getting oversold, while the
MACD is growing in a bearish manner. We believe the stock may
continue to drift lower and test QR85.90, followed by QR84.90.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,416.06 DOWN DOWN 13,350.54 13,300.00 13,447.17 13,500.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,539.47 DOWN DOWN 4,528.58 4,481.57 4,584.50 4,638.81 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)*
53.20
DOWN
DOWN
52.80
51.80
54.00
55.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 71.90 DOWN UP 71.50 70.70 72.40 73.40
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
58.30
DOWN
DOWN
58.00
56.20
59.20
59.90 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 111.00 DOWN DOWN 111.00 110.00 113.00 115.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)*
86.50
DOWN
DOWN
85.90
84.90
87.80
89.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 98.60 FLAT UP 98.00 97.00 99.00 100.00 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)*
124.50
DOWN
FLAT
121.50
118.20
126.50
128.80 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
185.50
DOWN
FLAT
184.00
182.50
186.40
188.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 187.00 DOWN DOWN 186.00 184.00 188.00 190.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
117.00
DOWN
DOWN
115.00
111.90
118.10
119.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 56.60 DOWN DOWN 56.10 55.20 57.70 59.00 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)*
40.15
DOWN
DOWN
39.70
39.20
40.20
41.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 27.80 DOWN DOWN 27.35 27.00 27.85 28.20
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)
19.77
DOWN
DOWN
19.71
19.36
20.04
20.36 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 23.30 DOWN DOWN 23.00 22.45 23.50 23.90 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
127.10
DOWN
DOWN
126.00
124.50
128.00
129.70 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 20.55 DOWN DOWN 20.40 20.00 20.79 21.00 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
24.14
DOWN
DOWN
23.90
23.50
24.20
24.45 Milaha (QNNS QD) 95.00 DOWN DOWN 94.50 93.90 95.10 96.50