The document provides a technical analysis of the QE Index and key Qatari stocks to consider. It finds the QE Index ended lower, losing 277 points, and several stocks like Qatar Electricity & Water Co. and Qatar Insurance declined and breached important support levels. However, some stocks like Barwa Real Estate Co. and Milaha gained and have potential to continue their upward moves if they surpass resistance levels. Overall, the analysis adopts a neutral short-term view of the QE Index and Al Rayan Islamic Index, and identifies both upward and downward potential in various stocks.
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1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index ended the session in the red to lose around 277 points
(-2.01%) on the back of heavy profit-booking. After reaching an
intraday high of 13,788.20, the index failed to remain afloat for long,
and penetrated below many important psychological levels along with
both the 55-day and 21-day moving averages. However, the upmove
in the index remains intact, until it stays above 13,450.0. A dip below
the 13,450.0 level could drag the index further down.
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Pullback
QEWS has been making lower lows on the chart since topping the
current rally at around QR192.60. Moreover, the stock declined and
dipped below its important supports of QR186.0 and QR184.0 in a
single swoop on the back of large volumes. With the RSI pointing
down and the MACD crossing the signal line in a bearish manner,
QEWS may continue to move lower and test QR180.0. However, the
stock may get some relief, if it closes above the QR184.0 level.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index failed to make further headway toward 4,639.0 and
shed around 73 points (-1.58%) to settle at 4,523.15. Profit-booking
took a toll on the index, leading to a down-session performance,
which dragged it below the crucial supports of the 21-day moving
average and 4,529.0. On the downside, the index has a psychological
support at 4,500.0, followed by 4,476.0. The bears will gain an upper
hand only if the index slips below these levels.
Qatar Insurance: Short-Term – Pullback
QATI could not make a break through above QR99.0 and retreated to
breach the 55-day moving average. Notably, volumes were also large
on the decline, showing a negative sign. Although the stock is trading
close to its immediate support of QR97.0, it is unlikely to cling on to it
and drift down further to test QR94.60. However, if the stock manages
to reclaim the 55-day moving average, it may halt its pullback.
Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are looking weak.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Upmove
BRES gained 2.63% and advanced further to clear its resistance of
QR42.50. We believe based on the current higher push and spike in
volumes, the stock has enough steam to surpass QR43.20 and
proceed ahead toward QR43.80. Moreover, both the indicators are
positively poised, indicating strength in the current upmove. However,
traders may need to keep a close watch on QR42.50, as any decline
below this level may pull the stock down to test QR41.80.
Milaha: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QNNS declined marginally on Thursday. However, the stock is in the
upmove mode and is moving along the trendline. The RSI is in the
buy zone, while the MACD is diverging away from the signal line in a
bullish manner, indicating a possibility of a higher move. We believe
the stock may likely rebound from the current level and clear its
resistance of QR98.30 to target QR100.10. Conversely, any failure to
surpass and sustain above QR98.30 may pull the stock down.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,498.86 FLAT DOWN 13,447.17 13,400.00 13,500.00 13,584.34 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,523.15 DOWN DOWN 4,500.00 4,476.45 4,528.58 4,584.50 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
51.00
DOWN
DOWN
50.40
49.75
51.80
52.80 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 73.90 UP UP 73.40 72.50 74.30 75.00
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
58.00
FLAT
DOWN
58.00
57.20
59.20
60.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 112.00 DOWN DOWN 111.00 110.00 113.00 115.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
87.00
FLAT
DOWN
86.10
84.90
87.30
89.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)* 97.10 DOWN DOWN 97.00 94.60 98.00 99.00 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
126.40
DOWN
DOWN
124.75
121.50
126.50
128.80 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
188.40
FLAT
FLAT
186.40
184.00
188.50
190.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 182.20 DOWN DOWN 180.00 178.18 184.00 186.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
119.00
DOWN
FLAT
118.10
115.00
119.50
121.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 49.35 DOWN DOWN 48.90 47.70 49.75 51.00 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)*
42.95
UP
UP
42.50
41.80
43.20
43.80 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 26.65 DOWN DOWN 26.45 26.10 26.70 27.00
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)
19.70
UP
UP
19.36
18.97
20.04
20.35 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 24.10 UP FLAT 23.89 23.35 24.25 25.00 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
123.50
DOWN
DOWN
122.90
121.00
123.70
124.90 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 20.70 DOWN FLAT 20.40 20.00 20.79 21.10 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
23.75
DOWN
DOWN
23.40
23.00
23.90
24.12 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 97.80 UP UP 97.20 96.50 98.30 100.10