The document provides a technical analysis of the QSE Index and key Qatari stocks. It finds that the QSE Index and Al Rayan Islamic Index are in short-term uptrends, supported by technical indicators. Several stocks are also seen as being in short-term uptrends, including Milaha, Gulf International Services, and Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development. Technical analysis is used to identify trends, patterns, and price support and resistance levels to determine whether stocks will continue rising or potentially consolidate.
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1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QSE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QSE Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QSE Index extended its winning streak for the third consecutive
session and rose around 96 points (0.70%). The index got off to a
positive start and maintained its bullish momentum, breaching its
resistances of both the 55-day moving average and 13,750.0 in a
single swoop. With the RSI and the MACD lines showing strength,
we believe the index will continue its rally and advance further toward
13,850.0. Conversely, the index may find support at 13,750.0.
Milaha: Short-Term – Upmove
QNNS built on its gains and advanced 1.96%, clearing its important
resistance of QR102.0 recording a 52-week high. The stock has been
in an upmove mode and is registering strong gains since moving
above both the moving averages. With volumes picking up and both
the indicators pointing higher, we believe the stock may further rally
and breach QR104.0, targeting QR105.80. Conversely, any failure to
move above QR104.0 may result in consolidation.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QERI Index continued its northward journey for the third straight
day and gained around 22 points (0.49%) to settle near the 4,600.0
mark. The bulls continued their domination over the bears and
pushed the index higher above its important resistance of 4,585.0.
Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are suggesting the index
will continue its upward momentum and test 4,639.0. On the flip side,
4,585.0 and 4,550.0 may provide immediate support for the index.
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
MRDS rebounded and jumped 4.21% on the back of increased
participation, after moving lower over the past few days. Further, the
stock breached its resistances of QR23.89, QR24.25, along with the
55-day moving average in a single session, providing a positive
signal. The stock has also developed a bullish Marubozu candlestick
formation, indicating a continuation of this bounce back toward
QR25.0. However, a dip below QR24.25 may pull the stock down.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Uptrend
GISS gained 2.20% and surpassed the resistances of QR128.30 and
QR129.80 to tag an all-time high. Notably, volumes were also high on
the rise, reflecting optimism among traders. The stock has been
making higher tops and higher bottoms, which is a bullish indication.
We believe based on the current higher push and positive indicators,
GISS may extend its gains further and record new highs. However,
any retreat below QR129.80 may halt its uptrend.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
UDCD reversed and gained 2.94% and moved above the descending
trendline, which had restricted its bullish move in the past. Further, the
stock cleared its resistances of QR25.70 and QR26.10 and ended in
a sizable bullish candlestick formation on the daily chart. We believe
the stock may proceed toward QR26.50 given the positive divergence
on the RSI line. However, traders need to exercise caution if the stock
slips below QR26.10 as it may result in a pullback.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Stock Exchange;
QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute
legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that
QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any
representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may
also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QSE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Stock Exchange Index (QSE Index) 13,788.40 UP UP 13,753.36 13,700.00 13,847.11 13,909.87 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,595.42 UP DOWN 4,584.50 4,550.00 4,638.81 4,672.95 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
50.40
DOWN
DOWN
49.60
48.50
50.40
51.80 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 73.90 UP UP 73.40 72.50 74.30 75.00
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
59.80
UP
FLAT
59.20
58.70
59.90
60.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 110.10 DOWN DOWN 110.00 107.00 111.00 113.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
85.70
FLAT
DOWN
84.90
84.00
86.10
87.30 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 98.10 FLAT FLAT 98.00 97.00 99.00 100.00 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
126.50
FLAT
DOWN
126.50
124.75
128.80
131.00 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
197.00
UP
UP
196.50
194.60
197.70
199.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 188.20 UP FLAT 188.00 186.00 190.00 192.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)*
129.90
UP
UP
129.80
127.00
131.00
133.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 48.70 DOWN DOWN 47.70 46.90 48.90 49.75 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
47.85
UP
UP
47.30
46.50
48.50
50.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 26.30 DOWN DOWN 26.10 25.70 26.50 27.00
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)
19.24
FLAT
DOWN
18.97
18.55
19.36
19.50 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD)* 24.49 UP UP 24.25 23.89 25.00 25.50 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
122.00
DOWN
DOWN
121.40
120.50
122.90
123.70 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.44 DOWN DOWN 19.29 18.75 19.72 20.00 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
24.65
UP
UP
24.61
24.45
25.00
25.30 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 103.80 UP UP 102.00 101.10 104.00 105.80