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MEASURING ECONOMICMEASURING ECONOMIC
PERFORMANCE:PERFORMANCE:
All you wanted to knowAll you wanted to know
about GVAabout GVA
Stephen BashfordStephen Bashford
StructureStructure
• Gross Value Added (GVA)
• Complementary measures
– Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI)
– Regional Index of Sustainable Economic Well-
being (R-ISEW)
• See regional and sub-regional indicators
http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/
Gross Valued Added (GVA):Gross Valued Added (GVA):
Total value of goods and services
produced through economic activity in any
particular period
• GVA = GDP - Taxes + Subsidies (GDP is at market
prices)
• Taxes and subsidies not part of the value added in
production
• GDP = national; GVA = regional
• GVA = Output = Income = Expenditure…
(1) OUTPUT
(2) INCOME
(3) EXPENDITURE
(1) Output (production) approach(1) Output (production) approach
Farmer’s
value addedFarmer
Value of
wheat
Miller’s
value added
Miller
Value of flour
Baker’s
value added
Baker
Wholesale value of bread
Grocer’s
value added
Grocer
Retail value of bread
Final expenditure on bread
0 10p 20p 30p 40p
GVA
Farmer’s
value added
Miller’s
value added
Baker’s
value added
Grocer’s
value added
Intermediate
expenditure
Final expenditure
Value added
Note that the sum of
all value added is
also equal to final
expenditure.
0 10p 20p 30p 40p
(2) Income approach(2) Income approach
• Income of all those involved in production process
• Includes:
– Compensation of employees (wages and salaries)
~60%
– Operating surplus (profit, interest…etc) ~30%
– Mixed incomes (sole traders and self-employed)
~10%
• Excludes:
– Transfer payments (pensions and social security);
Direct taxes; ‘Shadow Economy’
(3) Expenditure approach(3) Expenditure approach
 The value of expenditure on goods and
services
C + G + I + X – M
C = Consumer expenditure on goods & services
G = Government expenditure
I = Investment in buildings and machinery
X-M = Exports minus imports
What is the GVA for Company A?What is the GVA for Company A?
Company A
Sales £100
Cost of Sales £30
Wages £40
Expenses £20 £90
Net profit £10
GVA for Company A £50
Sales - CoS - Expenses £50
Wages + net profit £50
Other calculations:
Employment based:
Net additional employment x GVA per FTE
for sector
Turnover based:
Turnover x Turnover :GVA ratio for sector
Nominal vs. Real GVANominal vs. Real GVA
• Nominal GVA in current prices with no allowances
made for inflation
• Real GVA in constant prices i.e. a fixed year
(2007)
GVA
deflator
Real
GVA
Real
GVA
2007
2008
Nominal
GVA
ProductivityProductivity
How efficiently factors of production (land,
labour and capital) are used in the
production process
• GVA per job or GVA per hour
• GVA per head as a proxy (from ONS)
–Resident vs. workplace: commuting effects
–Non-active population factor
expansion
recession
Potential
output
Actual
output
Trend
output
In The Challenge of Affluence (2006), economist
Avner Offer says that the various forms of national
accounts were not designed to measure welfare but
cyclical changes in levels of economic activity:
Time
Output
• Indicator of scale and growth
• Comparisons across time & place (but time lags)
• Established methodology
• Limitations are well documented
– Does not directly measure well-being; ‘Threshold hypothesis’
– Distribution; Income inequality
– Ignores externalities e.g. environmental
– Includes ‘bads’ i.e. more expenditure on health care due to stress
– To be considered alongside other economic, environmental and
social indicators
GVA: What it does and does not doGVA: What it does and does not do
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
NE YH WM NW EM SW E ENG SE L
Agriculture Production
Construction Distribution, transport and comms
Business services Public admin
Example 1: GVA composition 2008Example 1: GVA composition 2008
Example 2: Sub-regional GVA per headExample 2: Sub-regional GVA per head
indicesindices
Example 3: Sub-regional GVA/head growthExample 3: Sub-regional GVA/head growth
1999-20071999-2007
• The amount that households have to spend or save
after deduction of income and property taxes, National
Insurance and social contributions
…the maximum amount that a household can (or
has available at its disposal to) consume without
reducing its real worth
Gross Disposable Household IncomeGross Disposable Household Income
(GDHI)(GDHI)
MethodologyMethodology
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
£
GVA per head
GDHI per head
SW GVA versus GDHISW GVA versus GDHI
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
£million
Operating
Surplus/Mixed
Income
Compensation of
employees
Property income,
received
Social benefits
Other current
transfers
Current taxes on
income, wealth
etc
Social
contributions
Other current
transfers, uses
Property income,
paid
Components of SW GDHIComponents of SW GDHI
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Plymouth
Torbay
Cornwall&IoS
Bristol
DevonCC
Somerset
Swindon
B&NES,NSomerset&SGlos
B&P
Wiltshire
Dorset
Gloucestershire
£
GVA per head GDHI per head
But how is this affected by commuting? Again, work-based vs.
resident-based.
Redistributive effectRedistributive effect
Regional Index of Sustainable EconomicRegional Index of Sustainable Economic
Well-being (R-ISEW)Well-being (R-ISEW)
• Monetises social and environmental issues bringing
them into the same analytical framework as economic
indicators
• First ISEW by Cobb & Daly in 1989
• First UK ISEW by nef and Professor Tim Jackson, University of Surrey
in 1994
•First R-ISEWs for all regions supported by RDAs, calculated in 2007
R-ISEW = Personal consumer expenditure
- adjustment for income inequality
+ public expenditures (non-defensive)
+ value of domestic labour & volunteering
+/- economic adjustments (net international position, net
capital growth, consumer durables)
- defensive private expenditures
- costs of environmental degradation
- depreciation of natural capital
MethodologyMethodology
GVA per head versus R-ISEW per headGVA per head versus R-ISEW per head
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
£
R-ISEW per head England GVA per head England
R-ISEW per head South West GVA per head South West
Capital growth, resource
depletion, commuting
Components of SW R-ISEWComponents of SW R-ISEW
ConclusionsConclusions
• Must fully understand the benefits and limitations of indicators.
• GVA measures the total value of goods and services produced
through economic activity.
• ‘Circular flow’: GVA = Output = Income = Expenditure
• Productivity describes how efficiently an economy is using its
resources.
• GDHI measures how much consumers have available to spend in
the economy and reveals a ‘redistributive effect’.
• The R-ISEW attempts to bring a number of indicators into a single
framework. An effective model?
For briefings on theseFor briefings on these
indicators and more…indicators and more…
http://economy.swo.org.uk/http://economy.swo.org.uk/

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Economics Demystified: All You Wanted to Know About GVA

  • 1. MEASURING ECONOMICMEASURING ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:PERFORMANCE: All you wanted to knowAll you wanted to know about GVAabout GVA Stephen BashfordStephen Bashford
  • 2. StructureStructure • Gross Value Added (GVA) • Complementary measures – Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) – Regional Index of Sustainable Economic Well- being (R-ISEW) • See regional and sub-regional indicators http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/
  • 3. Gross Valued Added (GVA):Gross Valued Added (GVA): Total value of goods and services produced through economic activity in any particular period • GVA = GDP - Taxes + Subsidies (GDP is at market prices) • Taxes and subsidies not part of the value added in production • GDP = national; GVA = regional • GVA = Output = Income = Expenditure…
  • 5. (1) Output (production) approach(1) Output (production) approach Farmer’s value addedFarmer Value of wheat Miller’s value added Miller Value of flour Baker’s value added Baker Wholesale value of bread Grocer’s value added Grocer Retail value of bread Final expenditure on bread 0 10p 20p 30p 40p GVA Farmer’s value added Miller’s value added Baker’s value added Grocer’s value added Intermediate expenditure Final expenditure Value added Note that the sum of all value added is also equal to final expenditure. 0 10p 20p 30p 40p
  • 6. (2) Income approach(2) Income approach • Income of all those involved in production process • Includes: – Compensation of employees (wages and salaries) ~60% – Operating surplus (profit, interest…etc) ~30% – Mixed incomes (sole traders and self-employed) ~10% • Excludes: – Transfer payments (pensions and social security); Direct taxes; ‘Shadow Economy’
  • 7. (3) Expenditure approach(3) Expenditure approach  The value of expenditure on goods and services C + G + I + X – M C = Consumer expenditure on goods & services G = Government expenditure I = Investment in buildings and machinery X-M = Exports minus imports
  • 8. What is the GVA for Company A?What is the GVA for Company A? Company A Sales £100 Cost of Sales £30 Wages £40 Expenses £20 £90 Net profit £10 GVA for Company A £50 Sales - CoS - Expenses £50 Wages + net profit £50 Other calculations: Employment based: Net additional employment x GVA per FTE for sector Turnover based: Turnover x Turnover :GVA ratio for sector
  • 9. Nominal vs. Real GVANominal vs. Real GVA • Nominal GVA in current prices with no allowances made for inflation • Real GVA in constant prices i.e. a fixed year (2007) GVA deflator Real GVA Real GVA 2007 2008 Nominal GVA
  • 10. ProductivityProductivity How efficiently factors of production (land, labour and capital) are used in the production process • GVA per job or GVA per hour • GVA per head as a proxy (from ONS) –Resident vs. workplace: commuting effects –Non-active population factor
  • 11.
  • 12. expansion recession Potential output Actual output Trend output In The Challenge of Affluence (2006), economist Avner Offer says that the various forms of national accounts were not designed to measure welfare but cyclical changes in levels of economic activity: Time Output
  • 13. • Indicator of scale and growth • Comparisons across time & place (but time lags) • Established methodology • Limitations are well documented – Does not directly measure well-being; ‘Threshold hypothesis’ – Distribution; Income inequality – Ignores externalities e.g. environmental – Includes ‘bads’ i.e. more expenditure on health care due to stress – To be considered alongside other economic, environmental and social indicators GVA: What it does and does not doGVA: What it does and does not do
  • 14. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% NE YH WM NW EM SW E ENG SE L Agriculture Production Construction Distribution, transport and comms Business services Public admin Example 1: GVA composition 2008Example 1: GVA composition 2008
  • 15. Example 2: Sub-regional GVA per headExample 2: Sub-regional GVA per head indicesindices
  • 16. Example 3: Sub-regional GVA/head growthExample 3: Sub-regional GVA/head growth 1999-20071999-2007
  • 17. • The amount that households have to spend or save after deduction of income and property taxes, National Insurance and social contributions …the maximum amount that a household can (or has available at its disposal to) consume without reducing its real worth Gross Disposable Household IncomeGross Disposable Household Income (GDHI)(GDHI)
  • 19. 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 £ GVA per head GDHI per head SW GVA versus GDHISW GVA versus GDHI
  • 20. -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 £million Operating Surplus/Mixed Income Compensation of employees Property income, received Social benefits Other current transfers Current taxes on income, wealth etc Social contributions Other current transfers, uses Property income, paid Components of SW GDHIComponents of SW GDHI
  • 21. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Plymouth Torbay Cornwall&IoS Bristol DevonCC Somerset Swindon B&NES,NSomerset&SGlos B&P Wiltshire Dorset Gloucestershire £ GVA per head GDHI per head But how is this affected by commuting? Again, work-based vs. resident-based. Redistributive effectRedistributive effect
  • 22. Regional Index of Sustainable EconomicRegional Index of Sustainable Economic Well-being (R-ISEW)Well-being (R-ISEW) • Monetises social and environmental issues bringing them into the same analytical framework as economic indicators • First ISEW by Cobb & Daly in 1989 • First UK ISEW by nef and Professor Tim Jackson, University of Surrey in 1994 •First R-ISEWs for all regions supported by RDAs, calculated in 2007
  • 23. R-ISEW = Personal consumer expenditure - adjustment for income inequality + public expenditures (non-defensive) + value of domestic labour & volunteering +/- economic adjustments (net international position, net capital growth, consumer durables) - defensive private expenditures - costs of environmental degradation - depreciation of natural capital MethodologyMethodology
  • 24. GVA per head versus R-ISEW per headGVA per head versus R-ISEW per head 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 £ R-ISEW per head England GVA per head England R-ISEW per head South West GVA per head South West Capital growth, resource depletion, commuting
  • 25. Components of SW R-ISEWComponents of SW R-ISEW
  • 26. ConclusionsConclusions • Must fully understand the benefits and limitations of indicators. • GVA measures the total value of goods and services produced through economic activity. • ‘Circular flow’: GVA = Output = Income = Expenditure • Productivity describes how efficiently an economy is using its resources. • GDHI measures how much consumers have available to spend in the economy and reveals a ‘redistributive effect’. • The R-ISEW attempts to bring a number of indicators into a single framework. An effective model?
  • 27. For briefings on theseFor briefings on these indicators and more…indicators and more… http://economy.swo.org.uk/http://economy.swo.org.uk/