The document summarizes a two hour search to find estimates of potential improvements in US building energy efficiency over the next 10-20 years. The search involved cycling through Google searches and visiting over 75 URLs, with promising sources including the UN, US national labs, IPCC reports, and government agencies. Estimates found ranged from 11.7-28% improvement by 2010-2030 depending on the source and geography. The search highlighted the complexity of the question and issues with search syntax and jargon across different sources.

1. The question
“Find the most substantial estimates of the
percentage improvements in US building energy
efficiency that will be possible over the next 10-
20 years.”
Focus on building energy use
United States or developed country context
Both technical and policy drivers
Fast moving field - current citations needed

2. Points of departure
Audiences for
building energy Initial
estimates Indices Keywords
Policy makers Machine compiled Energy wedge
Environmentalists Popular search Conservation
engines Long term carbon
Electric utility
forecasters Specialized emissions
indices Technology
Building efficiency
researchers Human compiled assessment
resource lists Amory Lovins
Robert Socolow
IPCC

3. Mild performance anxiety sets in

4. First stop
The ED Library research guides -- Susan Koskinen
Green Design / Sustainable Architecture Resources
various Building Science topics

5. A cycle develops
Google Speculative, dial in keywords,
look for government, labs,
professional groups, utility, etc.
Organization Search within an organization’s
WWW Site WWW site for summary
reports
Summary Check if summary report is on
Report track, then consult citations and
links
Technical Report Scan technical report for
(typically PDF) projections and basis

6. Summary of the search
In two hours I visited
approximately 75 URLs
and downloaded 15 PDF
documents
The search involved a
dozen “Google-to-
detailed-PDF” cycles and
multiple false starts.
As often happens, the
question became complex.

7. Productive threads
United Nations Google
IPCC Organization WWW
US National Labs sites
PDF pubs online

8. Dead ends
Professional societies Lexus-Nexus
(soft) (too broad)
Government agencies Science Direct
(see below) (insufficient time)
Energy Citations
(dated)

9. Promising citations
“Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2030,”
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html (accessed May 22, 2007).
“IPCC Technical Paper I: Technical Summary,” http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/techrepI/techsumm.html (accessed May 22,
2007).
“IPCC Technical Paper I: Residential, Commercial and Institutional Buildings Sector,”
http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/techrepI/residential.html#2.4 (accessed May 22, 2007).
“Climate Change 2001: Mitigation,” http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/093.htm (accessed May 22, 2007).
“2006 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update,” http://www.energy.ca.gov/2006_policy_update/index.html (accessed May
22, 2007).
“Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future,” http://www.ornl.gov/sci/eere/cef/ (accessed May 22, 2007).
“Wege Summary Tb,” http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/wedgesumtb.htm (accessed May 22, 2007).
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook
(Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ; Washington, D.C, 1977).
“Kyoto - End-Use Energy Demand (Residential & Commercial),” http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/kyoto/enduse.html (accessed
May 22, 2007).
Pantelis Capros, et al., Climate Technology Strategies 1: Controlling Greenhouse Gases. Policy and Technology Options
(Physica-Verlag Heidelberg, 1999).
International Conference on Climate Change Research: Evaluation and Policy Implications, Climate Change Research:
Evaluation and Policy Implications (Amsterdam ; New York: Elsevier Science, 1995).

10. Sample predictions
Predicted Forecast Geographic
Source improvement Date Context
United Nations 13% 2010 United
Development Programme States
(1999)
Clean Energy Futures 11.7% 2010 United
(2000) (LBNL, PNNL) 25% 2020 States
Sectoral Trends, Lawrence 19.5% 2010 North
Berkeley National Lab 24% 2020 America
(2006) 27% 2030
Intergovernmental Panel 28% 2030 Global (> in
on Climate Change (2007) dev. country}

11. Observations
Google was remarkably quick & effective
Policy issues more important than assumed
Given two hours, ample ground covered
but did not pause to review carefully
The US government sites were disappointing
Many PDFs encountered (crtl-F “building*)
Search syntax unclear as I moved from site to site
Jargon a major issue (SAR, TAR, FAR), Wikipedia
Zotero from George Mason University