5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Dr. Walter HaysDr. Walter Hays
US Geological Survey (Retired)US Geological Survey (Retired)
Global Alliance for Disaster ReductionGlobal Alliance for Disaster Reduction

2. PreparednessPreparedness Emergency ResponseEmergency Response
ESSENTIAL PILLARSESSENTIAL PILLARS
OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCEOF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
ESSENTIAL PILLARSESSENTIAL PILLARS
OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCEOF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

3. EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS,
WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR
“BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ON
EMERGENCY RESPONSE

4. BREAKING NEWS
August 24, 2014

5. THE MAGNITUDE 6.0 NAPA
VALLEY, CA EARTHQUAKE
3:20 AM, AUGUST 24, 2014
Strongest in area since the M 6.9
1989 Loma Prieta Quake, BUT about
1/30th
the energy release

6. LOCATION: AUGUST 24 NAPA
VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

7. LOCATION: AUGUST 24 NAPA
VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

8. USGS’ SHAKE MAP: AUGUST 24
NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

9. AUGUST 24: EARLY REPORTS OF
SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS
• Local damage to buildings and
houses, injuries, but no deaths (yet)
• Damage to contents
• Loss of Power
• Damage to Highway 12
• Local fires
• Aftershocks

10. GLOBAL AN D LOCAL CONTEXTS

11. PACIFIC RING OF FIRE
Prone to earthquakes and tsunamis

13. STATES WITH THE MOST EATHQUAKE
ACTIVITY
At least one event every 30 yearsAt least one event every 30 years
0 events in 30 years0 events in 30 years

14. YOUR
COMMUNITY
DATA BASESDATA BASES
AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
RISK
BOOKS OFBOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE
• MONITORING
• HAZARD MAPS
• INVENTORY
• VULNERABILITY
• LOCATION

15. TYPICAL SITUATIONS ENCOUNTERED
DURING EM. RESPONSE
• DAMAGE; DEBRIS
• COLLAPSE
• TRAPPED SURVIVORS
• SEARCH AND RESCUE
CLOCK
• FIRES
• INUNDATION
• EVACUATION CENTERS
• EM. MEDICAL
• MASS CARE
• HAZ MAT RELEASE
• INJURIES
• DEATHS

16. THE GOAL:THE GOAL:
DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
EARTHQUAKE DISASTEREARTHQUAKE DISASTER
RESILIENCE:RESILIENCE:
CAPABILITIES OFCAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
CAPABILITIES OFCAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

17. REALITY:REALITY:
UNANTICIPATEDUNANTICIPATED
DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
UNANTICIPATEDUNANTICIPATED
DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
LACK OF EARTHQUAKELACK OF EARTHQUAKE
PREPAREDNESSPREPAREDNESS
INSUFFICIENTINSUFFICIENT
PREPAREDNESS OFPREPAREDNESS OF
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
INSUFFICIENTINSUFFICIENT
PREPAREDNESS OFPREPAREDNESS OF
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

18. REALITY:REALITY:
URGENT DEMANDSURGENT DEMANDS
ON COMMUNITYON COMMUNITY
URGENT DEMANDSURGENT DEMANDS
ON COMMUNITYON COMMUNITY
LACK OF EMERGENCYLACK OF EMERGENCY
RESPONSE CAPABILITYRESPONSE CAPABILITY
INSUFFICIENTINSUFFICIENT
CAPABILITY TOCAPABILITY TO
RESPOND TORESPOND TO
DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
INSUFFICIENTINSUFFICIENT
CAPABILITY TOCAPABILITY TO
RESPOND TORESPOND TO
DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

19. WHAT IS EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS?WHAT IS EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS?
A state of readiness on individual, urban,
sub-regional, and national scales that is
sufficient to keep the expected and
unexpected effects of an earthquake from
causing a disaster

20. ANTICIPATION IS THE KEY TO
PREPAREDNESS
• Strong ground shaking
• Tsunami wave run up
• Liquefaction
• Landslides
• Aftershocks
• Vulnerabilities

21. STRONG GROUND SHAKING

22. GROUND SHAKING CAUSES SOCIAL AND
ECONOMIC LOSSES

23. AS COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS
INCREASES,
SO DOES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS
AND INFRASTRUCTURE

24. WHAT IS PROTECTION?
A legally mandated state of planning and
verified robustness, strength, and
ductility for important buildings and
essential - critical infrastructure to
prevent loss of function

25. WHAT IS EMERGENCY RESPONSE
All of the scripted and unscripted heroic
and historic responses during the “race
against time” after a quake to save lives
and protect property

26. KEY ELEMENTS OF PREPAREDNESS
• Know your seimic activity (i.e.,
Seismicity )
• Know your fault zones
• Know your Vulnerabilites

27. FAULTS

28. THE USA’S MOST NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY
FAULT ZONE
• San Andreas Fault
• 600 Miles long
• Source of M8
Earthquakes in 1847
and 1906

29. THE USA’S OTHER NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY
FAULT ZONE
• The Juan De Faca Plate
• Subducting beneath
Wash and Oregon
• Potential for M9.0

30. ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE
INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES
• Wasatch Fault, Utah
• 250 Miles long
• Potential source of
M7.0-7.5 earthquake

31. ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLEONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE
INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONESINTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES
• New Madrid SeismicNew Madrid Seismic
ZoneZone
• Source of four (4)Source of four (4)
M* earthquakes inM* earthquakes in
1811--18121811--1812

32. Community preparedness and emergency
management response increases as the
community’s capability to anticipate what
will increases

33. EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS
A DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
TECHNIQUE FOR USE IN ANY
EARTHQUAKE-PRONE AREA

34. FACILITATES ADVANCE PLANNING FOR
IMPLEMENTING ”INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT” PRACTICES BEFORE PAST MAJOR
EARTHQUAKES RECUR AND READINESS WHEN THEY
DO
Source: US Geological Survey and many
public-private sector partners

35. HAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO
EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
LOCALOCA
TIONTION
RISKRISK

36. INTEGRATED
KNOWLEDGE
• WHAT IS LIKELY TO
HAPPEN
• WHERE
• WHY
• HOW BAD
• WHAT CAN WE DO TO
MINIMIZE THE
SOCIOECONOMIC
IMPACTS
INTEGRATED
KNOWLEDGE
• WHAT IS LIKELY TO
HAPPEN
• WHERE
• WHY
• HOW BAD
• WHAT CAN WE DO TO
MINIMIZE THE
SOCIOECONOMIC
IMPACTS
EARTHQUAKE
SCENARIO
EARTHQUAKE
SCENARIO
EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION
POSTDISASTER
INVESTIGATIONS
POSTDISASTER
INVESTIGATIONS
MONITORING
AND RESEARCH
MONITORING
AND RESEARCH

37. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SCENARIO
(developed in 2008)
BASED ON INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE
FROM MONITORING, RESEACH, AND
POSTEARTHQUAKE STUDIES SINCE
APRIL 1906

38. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA: WHAT NEEDS
TO BE ANTICIPATED?
• How likely is a damaging
earthquake to occur?
• Where and when will it occur?
• How big will it be?
• How strong will its potential
disaster agents be?

39. • The Bay Area is prone to large
earthquakes because it straddles the
boundary between two major
tectonic plates — the North American
and Pacific plates.

44. • Much of the stress release happens
on the San Andreas fault, but some of
it is relieved by the Hayward fault and
other smaller parallel faults.

45. • Because of its location in the densely
populated Bay area of 7 million
people, a Hayward fault quake is likely
to cause worse societal impacts than a
San Andreas quake and be one of the
nation's largest natural disasters.

47. DAMAGEDAMAGE
PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETALPHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL
IMPACTS AND RISKIMPACTS AND RISK
COLLAPSECOLLAPSE
LOSS OFLOSS OF
FUNCTIONFUNCTION
ECONOMICECONOMIC
LOSSLOSS
RISKRISK

48. WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED
(Continued)?
• What kinds of buildings are at
risk?
• What kinds of basic, essential,
and critical infrastructure are
at risk?
• What are the physical
vulnerabilities?

49. • Potentially affecting 5 million people, a
Hayward fault quake damages homes,
schools, senior centers, hospitals,
businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus
of University of California, Berkeley.

50. WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED
(Continued)?
• What are the social
vulnerabilities?
• What is the likely damage
distribution?
• What are the HAT ARE THE
LIKELY CASUALTIES, SOCIO-
ECONOMIC, AND
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS?

51. • Damage will be extensive to
buildings and infrastructure.
•The region's transportation
infrastructure and water delivery
systems are expected to take a major
hit in a M7.0 or greater earthquake.

52. • A M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward
fault will cause an estimated $210
billion dollars in damage.

53. DAMAGE: AUGUST 24 NAPA
VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

54. DAMAGE TO HIGHWAY 12: AUGUST
24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

55. DAMAGE TO HIGHWAY 12: AUGUST
24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

56. CONCLUSION
EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD
TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE”
ON ANTICIPATING FUTURE IMPACTS