VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of mantle hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland) or explosive eruptions in subduction zones (e.g., the Pacific Rim). LESSON: THE KNOWLEDGE AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL. The people who know: 1) what hazards to expect (e.g., vertical ash plume, lateral blast, lava flow, lahar), 2) where and when they will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare for them will survive. The people who have timely, realistic, advance information that facilitates reduction of vulnerabilities, and hence the risks associated with the vertical ash plume, pyroclastic flows, tephra, lava flows, and lahars will survive. The people who have timely, accurate, advance information that facilitates evacuation to get our of harm’s way of pyroclastic flows, lava flows, and lahars will survive. The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy is not enough by itself to ensure earthquake disaster resilience. THE CHALLENGE: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

1. THE GLOBAL DISASTER
LABORATORY MODEL:
AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

2. FRAMEWORK 1
A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-
DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE
ON
GLOBAL DISASTERS
AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

3. 1. SCOPE
FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS
TO
A DISASTER
TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF
“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

4. A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that occur when
the continuums of: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs),
and 3) recurring events (e.g., volcanic
eruptions, floods, ...,) intersect at a
point in space and time, when and
where the community is not ready.

5. THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
• PEOPLE (7+ Billion and
counting)
• COMMUNITIES
• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards, which are
proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

6. PEOPLE = INNOVATION
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
NORTH
AMERICA
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
MEDITER-
RANEAN
ISLAND
NATIONS
ASIA
SOUTH
AMERICA
EUROPE

7. INTERSECTION OF THESE
CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL
CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T

8. THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
• 7 + BILLION
(DISTRIBUTED
THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD)

9. LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM
OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS

10. LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM
HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE

11. FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
• IGNORANCE
• APATHY
• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES
• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

12. THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM:
(SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
• GOVERNMENT
• DWELLINGS
• SCHOOLS
• HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES
• BUSINESSES
• INFRA-
STRUCTURE
• ETC

13. EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE
READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
INTERSECTION THAT WILL
CHALLENGE ITS
STATE-OF-RESILIENCE

14. THE RECURRING - EVENTS
CONTINUUM
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.

15. RECURRING VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS

16. RECURRING EARTHQUAKES

17. RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS
TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES

18. RECURRING FLOODS

19. RECURRING DROUGHT
EPISODES

20. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL,
EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,
STATISTICAL, FUZZY,
PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND
THEORETICAL MODELS
HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND
UNCERTAINTIES

21. FRAMEWORK 2
A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-
DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION
OF KNOWLEDGE FOR
THE END GAME OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE
IN THE 21ST CENTURY

22. POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
Anticipatory Preparedness
Adoption and Implementation of Realistic
Building Codes & Standards
Timely Early Warning and Evacuation
Timely Emergency Response (including
Evacuation and Emergency Medical Services)
Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction

23. YOUR
COMMUNITYDATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•FLOODS
•SEVERE WIND
STORMS
•EARTHQUAKES
…ETC
A DISASTER
CAUSES
FAILURES IN POLICIES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
COUNTER MEASURES
• BEST POLICIES
•BEST PRACTICES
DISASTER RESILIENCE

24. THE END GAME CHALLENGE
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST,
AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND
PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE
PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED
FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER
RESILIENCE

25. BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES
WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE
KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,
AND
IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE/COMMUNITY
CONTINUUMS

26. BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR INNOVATIVE
USE OF TECHNOLOGY
AND STRATEGIC
PLANNING

27. THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL
INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS ---
a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is
increased, b) Physical and
organizational VULNERABILITIES in
the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and
c) Each people-community-hazard
INTERSECTION is met successfully.

28. VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

30. INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS
USE GLOBAL VOLCANIC
ERUPTION DISASTER
LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR
PREPARING FROM “A”
(Emergency Response) TO “Z”
(Recovery and Reconstruction)

31. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
FOR VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE

32. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
• FORECASTS OF
ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
DEFORMATION,
SEISMICITY, GAS
EMISSIONS, REMOTE
SENSING, WINDS)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• DATABASES FOR
EACH VOLCANO
• COMPUTER MODELS
OF VOLCANOES
• MAPS
• DISASTER
SCENARIOS
• HAZARD
ASSESSMENT
• RISK ASSESSMENT

33. MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES
.

34. DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

35. DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• PROTECTION
• CONTROL
• AVIATION SAFETY
• TECHNIQUE
• DESIGN ROOFS
FOR WET ASH
• LAVA AND/OR
LAHAR DIVERSION
CHANNELS
• MODELS OF ASH
DISTRIBUTION

36. PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS
FOR WET ASH
• A LOAD OF WET
ASH ON A ROOF IS
TEN TIMES
HEAVIER THAN A
LOAD OF WET
SNOW.

37. AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS
TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH
• JET AIRCRAFT
ARE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ENGINE
FAILURE AND FREE
FALL WHEN
FLYING THROUGH
AN ASH CLOUD.

38. LAVA DIVERSION
CHANNELS: CONTROL
• LAVA FLOWS CAN
NOT BE PRE-
VENTED FROM
OCCURRING, BUT
THEY CAN BE
DIVERTED AWAY
FROM URBAN
CENTERS INTO THE
OCEAN

39. DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• COMPUTER
MODELS OF A
SPECIFIC VOL-
CANO, OR A
SPECIFIC HAZARD
(E.G., ASH
DISTRIBUTION)
• TECHNIQUE
• REAL TIME
MONITORING
• ERUPTION
HISTORY OF A
VOLCANO

40. EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF
SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES
• PRECURSORS TO
EXPECT
• LIKELY
EXPLOSIVENESS
• LIKELY SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL
DISTRIBUTION OF
PHYSICAL EFFECTS

41. COMPUTER MODELS: MOUNT
RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION

42. LAHAR DIVERSION
CHANNELS: CONTROL
• LAHARS CAN NOT
BE PREVENTED
FROM OCCUR-
RING, BUT THEY
CAN BE DIVERTED
AWAY FROM
URBAN CENTERS.

43. DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• URBAN PLANNING
• EVACUATION
• TECHNIQUE
• MAPS: LAVA
AND/OR LAHAR
FLOW PATHS
• COMMUNITY
EVACUATION
PLAN

44. EXAMPLE: MOUNT MERAPI
EVACUATION PLAN
• 11,000 from
three districts
were evacuated
to schools and
other
designated
emergency
shelters.

45. MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE
• Many citizens
chose to
evacuate, as
was ordered.
• Many villagers
remembered the
1994 disaster
and did not want
to repeat it.

46. MANY CHOOSE NOT TO
EVACUATE
• Many citizens
chose not to
evacuate because
shelters are boring
and they needed
to provide for
livestock and tend
crops.