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What would you like to grow?
whatwouldyouliketogrow.com.au
Asia: Regional
Commodity Needs and
Outlook
Where to next …Tim Goldsmith
Partner, PwC
8 September 2011
What would you like to grow?PwC
The new game
• Demand is stoked by growth in the emerging markets
• Supply is challenging due to declining grades and new mines in
remote locations
• Cost base of the industry has changed, leading to sustained
higher commodity prices and reduced margins
• Higher level of confidence from CEOs than seen in several
years, with strong belief in the emerging markets story
• Over $300 billion capex announced by the Top 40 miners – 1/3
in 2011
• Profits of Top 40 miners $110 billion, cash reserves over $100
billion
• Net debt down to 8%
1
What would you like to grow?PwC
China – a history of delivery
2
• The market continues to be nervous
about China’s ability to manage its
economy
• Historically China has outperformed
5 Year Plan targets
• 7% growth target in 5 Year Plan a
floor
• Not a ceiling
What would you like to grow?PwC
Steel intensity
3
What would you like to grow?PwC
Many large Chinese provinces are just
beginning to climb the steel intensity curve
4
What would you like to grow?PwC
Copper “gap”
5
What would you like to grow?PwC
Cost pressures felt by all
6
Source: BHP Billiton
BHP Billiton Western Australian Iron Ore cash costs
(US$/t)
What would you like to grow?PwC
Mining Deals 2011 mid-year update
Global mining M&A deal volumes and values rally during 1H 2011
7
• Record 1,379 deals worth
$71 billion announced
• Deal volumes and values
up 10% and 25% over
same period 2010
• Second half M&A
grinding to a halt – deal
value down 32% in July
and a further 25% in
August
What would you like to grow?PwC
Mining Deals 2011 mid-year update
• Mining activity by volume in
Mongolia at record
annualised levels (13
transactions in 2011 to date)
• Activity by value already
surpassed previous high
8
• Steelmaking ingredients, led by
coal and iron ore were the top
elements in focus
• Coal represented 26.5% of total
value, iron ore 11.8%
• Mongolian Coal Corp.
acquisition of QGX Coal
contributed $950 million
0
4
8
12
16
20
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H 2011
NumberofTransactions
US$(millions)
Mining M&A Activity in Mongolia
Value Volume
What would you like to grow?PwC
Outlook
9
• Demand fuelled by emerging markets
• Supply challenges remain and will continue
• Mining high on the political agenda
…the game has changed
What would you like to grow?
Contact Details
© 2010 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers
to PricewaterhouseCoopers, which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers
International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity
Tim Goldsmith, PwC Global Mining Leader
Telephone: +61 3 8603 2016
Mobile: +61 419 201 877
Email: tim.goldsmith@au.pwc.com

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08.09.2011 Asia: Regional commodity needs and outlook, Mr. Tim Goldsmith

  • 1. What would you like to grow? whatwouldyouliketogrow.com.au Asia: Regional Commodity Needs and Outlook Where to next …Tim Goldsmith Partner, PwC 8 September 2011
  • 2. What would you like to grow?PwC The new game • Demand is stoked by growth in the emerging markets • Supply is challenging due to declining grades and new mines in remote locations • Cost base of the industry has changed, leading to sustained higher commodity prices and reduced margins • Higher level of confidence from CEOs than seen in several years, with strong belief in the emerging markets story • Over $300 billion capex announced by the Top 40 miners – 1/3 in 2011 • Profits of Top 40 miners $110 billion, cash reserves over $100 billion • Net debt down to 8% 1
  • 3. What would you like to grow?PwC China – a history of delivery 2 • The market continues to be nervous about China’s ability to manage its economy • Historically China has outperformed 5 Year Plan targets • 7% growth target in 5 Year Plan a floor • Not a ceiling
  • 4. What would you like to grow?PwC Steel intensity 3
  • 5. What would you like to grow?PwC Many large Chinese provinces are just beginning to climb the steel intensity curve 4
  • 6. What would you like to grow?PwC Copper “gap” 5
  • 7. What would you like to grow?PwC Cost pressures felt by all 6 Source: BHP Billiton BHP Billiton Western Australian Iron Ore cash costs (US$/t)
  • 8. What would you like to grow?PwC Mining Deals 2011 mid-year update Global mining M&A deal volumes and values rally during 1H 2011 7 • Record 1,379 deals worth $71 billion announced • Deal volumes and values up 10% and 25% over same period 2010 • Second half M&A grinding to a halt – deal value down 32% in July and a further 25% in August
  • 9. What would you like to grow?PwC Mining Deals 2011 mid-year update • Mining activity by volume in Mongolia at record annualised levels (13 transactions in 2011 to date) • Activity by value already surpassed previous high 8 • Steelmaking ingredients, led by coal and iron ore were the top elements in focus • Coal represented 26.5% of total value, iron ore 11.8% • Mongolian Coal Corp. acquisition of QGX Coal contributed $950 million 0 4 8 12 16 20 - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H 2011 NumberofTransactions US$(millions) Mining M&A Activity in Mongolia Value Volume
  • 10. What would you like to grow?PwC Outlook 9 • Demand fuelled by emerging markets • Supply challenges remain and will continue • Mining high on the political agenda …the game has changed
  • 11. What would you like to grow? Contact Details © 2010 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers, which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity Tim Goldsmith, PwC Global Mining Leader Telephone: +61 3 8603 2016 Mobile: +61 419 201 877 Email: tim.goldsmith@au.pwc.com