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BUSINESS COUNCIL of MONGOLIA
NewsWire
www.bcmongolia.org
info@bcmongolia.org
Issue 99, December 18 2009
SEASON‟S GREETINGS
BCM wishes all Members and Friends a happy, healthy and prosperous holiday season
and 2010. There will be no BCM NewsWire on December 25. On January 1 we will
distribute a special Year-End Issue covering developments in 2009. BCM‟s office will be
closed from December 25 to reopen on January 4.
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS:
Business:
 Mongolia to Establish Three National Holding Companies;
 Khan Resources Urges Rejection of ARMZ Takeover Offer;
 More Banks do not Meet Requirements;
 Some Mined Areas Not Rehabilitated;
 Oyu Tolgoi Mineral Resources Potential Increases;
 Rio Tinto to Replace Iron-Ore Negotiator;
 Kazakhmys to Invest $5 billion in Copper Production, Refining;
 China Pension Fund to Triple Overseas Investment;
 Chinese Car Maker to Purchase Pieces of GM’s Saab.
Economy:
 Mongolian Wolf to Be ‘Unstoppable’;
 Economy to Improve in 2010, says Ch. Khashchuluun of NDIC;
 China Casts its Shadow on Mongolia;
 Fuel Prices Depend on Russia’s Rosnefti;
 Herders will be Active Part of Business via Wireless;
 Six Provinces Having a Tough Winter;
 Europe-Mongolia Investors’ Forum held in London;
 MNMA Partnering with BCM;
 China November Copper, Aluminum Output Hit Record;
 Russia Faces Wider Deficit if Spending not Curbed;
 Irish Discipline Sets an Example for Greece;
 China 2010 Coal Term Prices Seen Rising 8% on Year;
 China Struggles to Fuel its Nuclear Energy Boom;
 Nuclear Power Expansion in China Stirs Concerns;
 Iraq is Wild Card in World Oil Supply;
 Stocks Rise Around World on Dubai Bailout;
 Abu Dhabi Tightens Its Grip as It Offers Help to Dubai.
Politics:
 President Points at Parliament’s Clear Mistake, Vetoes Whole Budget;
 MPs Need to be Stopped, says D. Dorligjav;
 MCC Board Approves Re-Allocation of $188 Million of Grants;
 Russians are not Hiding Their Interest in Mongolia’s Coal;
 Civil Participation Important for National Security;
 5,000 Doses of Long-Awaited H1N1 Vaccine Arrive;
 Anti-Money Laundering Procedures Put into Place;
 Climate Concerns Put Energy Focus Back on Uranium;
 U.S. Move May Give Boost to Copenhagen Climate Talks;
 Climate Talks Near Deal to Save Forests;
 North Korea’s Four-Party Ploy;
 Seized North Korea Arms Cache Raises New Questions.
BUSINESS
MONGOLIA TO ESTABLISH THREE NATIONAL HOLDING COMPANIES
Mongolia is seeking to create three national holding companies. Prime Minister Batbold made a
number of important policy statements in recent meetings with mining industry executives,
representatives of the securities market, as well as the Wall Street Journal. The Mongolian
government intends to establish three major state-owned holding companies and raise significant
amounts of capital by offering their shares in international and domestic stock markets. Raising
billions of dollars through IPOs would allow the mineral-rich nation to finance major mining, energy
and infrastructure projects. These three envisioned national holding companies are:
- Mongol Erdes (Mongolian Minerals) to consolidate mining assets;
- Mongol Erchim (Mongolian Power) to combine power assets;
- Mongol Ded Butets (Mongolian Infrastructure) to include various infrastructure projects.
We highly rate the Prime Minister’s vision and initiatives in developing the national economy, local
capital markets, and effectively managing resource wealth. If these initiatives are successfully
implemented, they would be the main engines of industrialization and economic growth in the
coming decade as publicly-listed companies are poised to become one of best investment
opportunities in Mongolia.
Source: www.eurasiac.com
KHAN RESOURCES URGES REJECTION OF ARMZ TAKEOVER OFFER
The board of TSX-listed Khan Resources recommends that shareholders reject an unsolicited offer
from Russia's Atomredmetzoloto (ARMZ), labeling the bid "highly prejudicial and opportunistic".
The company said it is pursuing alternative transactions that could offer better "strategic value".
ARMZ offered $0.65 in cash per Khan share, which the Canadian firm's financial advisor has also said
is inadequate from a financial point of view. Khan said the ARMZ offer exposes the company to
"serious risks", because it comes at a time when Khan is trying to re-register mining and exploration
licenses in Mongolia for its Dornod uranium project, under a new nuclear energy law in the country.
"ARMZ is seeking to take advantage of Khan at a vulnerable time, and to capitalize on this
regulatory uncertainty," said Grant Edey, who chairs Khan's special committee of directors.
"The special committee and Khan management are focused on finding alternative strategic
transactions that take into account the interests of all relevant stakeholders and recognize the
reality of the current circumstances in Mongolia and the critical value of maintaining a positive
working relationship with the Mongolian government," Edey said.
Khan holds a 58% interest in Central Asian Uranium Company (CAUC), which holds a mining license
on the Dornod uranium project in Mongolia. ARMZ subsidiary Priargunsky owns 21% of CAUC and
Mongolian government-owned MonAtom holds the balance.
Source: Mining Weekly
MORE BANKS DO NOT MEET REQUIREMENTS
During the meeting of the Budget Standing Committee of the Parliament, officials were not denying
that there were other banks following the path of Anod and Zoos banks. At the meeting, when MP
B. Choijilsuren asked if there were any banks going bankrupt like Zoos, First Deputy Governor of
MongolBank B. Enkhkhuyag answered that there were banks that do not meet requirements, but not
quite like Anod or Zoos banks. S. Bayartsogt claimed that bond issue will be raised again for Anod
customers from the Government. Bonds of MNT 140-170 billion shall be issued, which are non-
refundable.
In the meantime, the Government has become owner of loans of Zoos Bank and newly established
"State Bank". In order to establish a smooth run of State Bank, about MNT 100 billion of funding is
required. Seven of the 12 members of the standing committee agree to discuss the bond resolution
at the Parliament joint session.
Mr. Enkhkhuyag stated that the Central Bank staff had already started going after the bad loans
which were granted to Mongol Gazar and its subsidiaries. Good loans from Zoos Bank were
transferred to the State Bank, and the bad ones left in the Mongol Bank. S. Bayartsogt, said that the
bonds will be repaid by the State Bank, which was established by the Government resolution. Its
board representatives were established by the Committee of the State Property. The head of the
board is the Vice Minister of Finance, T. Ochirkhuu. The board members discussed and delegated a
team for managing the bank, which consist of foreign experts. That way the team can be free from
political pressure. The bonds shall be sold domestically and to the Mongol Bank. The term and
interest rate remain confidential.
Source: Zuunii Medee
SOME MINED AREAS NOT REHABILITATED
The amount of land destroyed as a result of mining has reached 11799.4 hectare. In Uvurkhangai,
Arkhangai, Dornod and Khentii provinces, 1200 hectare that were mined have not been
rehabilitated, according to the national inspectors' assessment. Economic loss from such
environmental damage cannot be estimated. However, the value of rehabilitation per hectare will
be set up in the coming year.
The following companies were found to be mining illegally in Dundgovi, Arkhangai and Dornogovi
provinces: Meriflulord, Jonsht Gazar, New-fluorite, Tumen, Teeliin shonkhor, Taikhar deposit, Jung
Yuan, Ejung Meng in Dundgovi aimag, Zolotoi Vostok Mongoliya in Arkangai aimag,
Mongolrostsvetmet and Guoming in Dornogovi aimag. Moreover, some national companies will be
sued for damages on unrehabilitated areas.
On the other hand, due to the Baganuur coal mining operation, small lakes have nearly dried up.
The company made a channel to the lakes and re-introduced fish from Herlen River. Eventually,
birds such as swan started gathering again. These rehabilitation efforts were successful.
Source: Zuunii Medee
OYU TOLGOI MINERAL RESOURCES POTENTIAL INCREASES
An expanded induced polarization (IP) survey has significantly increased the potential for additional
resources to be discovered at Ivanhoe Mines’ Oyu Tolgoi Project in southern Mongolia. The IP survey
was aimed at testing the full extent of the 12km-long chain of copper-gold porphyry deposits
Ivanhoe discovered in 2001. The Zeus exploration technology used in this work succeeded in further
defining the spatial extent of the known ore bodies and revealed previously undetected
mineralization to depths of 3500 meters.
GoviEx Gold’s chief geophysicist Grant Hendrickson says the IP and resistivity technology has shown
that the main Hugo North deposit has an induced polarization depth extent that is at least 2.5
times greater than what has been defined to date by years of drilling. “The geophysical survey data
also show that the size and amplitude of the core of this immense sulphide body is increasing with
depth.” Mr. Hendrickson says there is excellent potential to very significantly increase Oyu Tolgoi’s
current mineral resources through an expanded, deep-drilling program conducted from the surface
and also underground.
Source: www.ivanhoe-mines.com
RIO TINTO TO REPLACE IRON-ORE NEGOTIATOR
Rio Tinto is replacing its chief iron-ore negotiator ahead of 2010 talks on benchmark prices after
this year's talks failed to reach an accord with China. The nation is the world's biggest consumer of
iron ore, a key ingredient in steel, so the prices it negotiates are highly influential on world
markets. Will Malaney, president of Rio Tinto Iron Ore Asia, is handing over his responsibility as Rio's
chief negotiator to Danny Goeman, Rio Tinto Iron Ore Asia's general manager of marketing. The
change allows Mr. Malaney to "focus exclusively on managing Asian sales in his ongoing role as
president of Rio Tinto Iron Ore Asia".
Rio Tinto's Mr. Greene dismissed any suggestion that its change was intended to recast the
leadership of the iron-ore talks following Rio Tinto's difficulties in China this year. Chinese
authorities detained four Rio Tinto executives, including an Australian citizen, on allegations of
bribery and stealing commercial secrets. The company has denied wrongdoing.
The China Iron and Steel Association took over negotiations for China for the first time this year,
after five years of Baosteel representing Chinese mills in talks with Rio Tinto and fellow mining
giants BHP Billiton Ltd. and Vale SA. Baosteel is replacing China Iron and Steel as the chief
negotiator for the Chinese side in 2010.
Source: Wall Street Journal
KAZAKHMYS TO INVEST $5 BILLION IN COPPER PRODUCTION, REFINING
Kazakh copper giant Kazakhmys plans to invest $4 billion in its copper deposits and a further $1
billion in refining facilities within the next five to six years, a company official said. "Our program
for the next five years is to build two large blocks at Bozshakol and Aktogai (copper deposits) that
would allow us to increase capacity by 30% on average," Eduard Ogai, head of the company's Kazakh
operations, told reporters. "Investments into those two objects will total about $4 billion," he said.
Kazakh state welfare fund Samruk-Kazyna, a Kazakhmys shareholder, said in October that China's
Development Bank could lend Kazakhmys between $1.5 billion and $2 billion to finance the
Bozshakol project.
Source: Reuters
CHINA PENSION FUND TO TRIPLE OVERSEAS INVESTMENT
China's national pension fund plans to nearly triple its overseas investments, as the fast-growing
fund seeks to diversify assets and boost returns following its first losses in the stock market last
year.
The National Social Security Fund, already one of the world's largest pension funds by assets, plans
to maintain the proportion of its equity investments and reduce its holdings in fixed-income
products, and invest in unlisted companies and private equity overseas, said fund Chairman Dai
Xianglong. The fund aims to increase the proportion of overseas investments in its total assets to
20%, the maximum allowed by the government, from 7%, he said.
Read more…
"The national pension fund will grow beyond 1 trillion yuan ($146.5 billion) in assets in the next two
years," he said. "Hence, the National Social Security Fund will strive to improve management and
increase value preservation and enhancement." As of the end of September, the fund had 678
billion yuan worth of assets under management, of which fixed-income investments accounted for
45%, domestic and foreign stocks 30%, private-equity investments 20%, and cash 5%. The fund's
investment income totaled 55.6 billion yuan in the January-September period, a return of 9.84%. Its
investment return ratio swung to a decline of 6.79% in 2008 from a rise of 38.93% in 2007. Mr. Dai
said the pension fund's minimum investment goal by 2012 is to beat inflation, with an average
annualized return of no less than 3.5% between 2008 and 2012.
Source: Dow Jones
CHINESE CAR MAKER TO PURCHASE PIECES OF GM‟S SAAB
General Motors Co.'s Saab Automobile AB unit and China's Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings Co.
said Saab has closed on the sale of certain assets, including intellectual property for two sedans and
equipment to produce those cars, to Beijing Auto. Beijing Auto, China's fifth-largest car maker, has
bought intellectual property rights for Saab 9-3 models, the current 9-5 models, and powertrain
technology and tooling. The Swedish car maker said that tooling for its current 9-5 model will move
to China, where it will be used to make Beijing Auto vehicles, and Saab will assist Beijing Auto in
integrating the technology into its vehicles.
The deal is part of a broader push by China to create a small number of globally competitive auto
makers through domestic consolidation and by acquiring foreign auto makers or their technology.
Chinese car makers are gaining strength thanks in part to a home market that has boomed as the
rest of the world's car markets have sputtered. China is on track to post total vehicle sales of more
than 13 million this year, surpassing the U.S. as the world's biggest auto market.
Read more…
Selling Saab is a key element of GM's revitalization strategy, but the U.S. auto maker has struggled
to seal a deal. Last month, Swedish sports-car maker Koenigsegg Group AB unexpectedly dropped a
separate bid for Saab. Beijing Auto had been putting the finishing touches on a deal to help
Koenigsegg finance that acquisition, in exchange for which the Chinese company was supposed to
secure access to Saab's technology and know-how.
Source: Wall Street Journal
ECONOMY
MONGOLIAN WOLF TO BE „UNSTOPPABLE‟
Mongolia may become the world’s fastest-growing economy in the next decade as untapped mineral
deposits lure investors, Renaissance Capital said last week. “We think Mongolia may be able to
position itself as the next Asian tiger or, as they prefer, Mongolian wolf,” strategists Roland Nash
and Ovanes Oganisian wrote.
Mongolia’s “unstoppable” transformation will begin next year as foreign mining companies seek
access to some of the world’s largest untapped deposits of gold, copper and coal. Ivanhoe Mines
and Rio Tinto Group signed an agreement with Mongolia in October to develop the $4 billion Oyu
Tolgoi copper-gold project. Investment in the Oyu Tolgoi deposit will be equivalent on an annual
basis to 10 percent of Mongolia’s current gross domestic product, Renaissance Capital said.
Mongolia may emerge as the world’s fastest-growing economy. Mongolia has the world’s biggest
copper reserves and the ninth-largest coal supplies as well as deposits of uranium, rare-earth
metals, gold, lead and zinc, the report said. Coal output will double in the next five years, while
gold output will triple and copper production will quadruple, the investment bank said. Mongolia’s
economy will probably double in dollar terms by 2014 or grow by 80 percent in the period under the
International Monetary Fund’s “more conservative” outlook.
Source: Moscow Times, Bloomberg
ECONOMY TO IMPROVE IN 2010, SAYS CH.KHASHCHULUUN OF NDIC
Dr. Ch. Khashchuluun, Chairman of the National Development and Innovation Committee, states
“the Mongolian economy will improve in 2010. There are three factors for the improvement. First,
the world market is getting better and that will impact our country positively because our country
has export orientation. Secondly, domestic investment is increasing, even though the budget has
been estimated to be with loss. We need to run a policy that activates the economy by increasing
investment and cover the loss of the budget. Third, the real estate sector is gradually reviving. As it
revives, more jobs will be created.”
The greatest impact on the economy is anticipated from the mining industry. For instance, OT is
bringing a great deal of investment which is approved by the experts. According to Khaschuluun,
per the NDIC “the economic growth is estimated to be up by 7.4%, whereby the International
Monetary Fund provided an estimation of 8%, which indicates that our estimation can be
feasible/realistic.”
Source: News.mn
CHINA CASTS ITS SHADOW ON MONGOLIA
China's economic growth and its implications for the world inspire both optimism and fear. In
Ulaanbaatar, the capital of a country with a strategic importance to China, the promise and the
threat loom large these days. In Mongolia, China's role as the catalyst for interest in untapped
mineral and energy resources has fueled optimism. Chinese demand for coal, copper and other
resources means anyone investing in the businesses that excavate them has a guaranteed market
right next door. Some in Mongolia fear China may swallow Mongolia’s economy.
Mongolia's leadership is adept at maintaining equilibrium between China and Russia. In a recent
interview, Prime Minister Batbold said he welcomed Chinese investment, but he also wants to
promote "balanced interest and investment" from a number of countries. That is one reason
Mongolia is eager to see Peabody Energy Corp. play a role in the development of the Tavan Tolgoi
coal mine.
Despite its enormous financial influence, China has kept its profile in Mongolia relatively low-key. It
has built up a presence in the mining sector through investments in companies with those assets,
such as Canadian-listed coal miner SouthGobi Energy Resources Ltd. and Western Prospector Group
Ltd., a Canadian uranium exploration company. Perhaps China is motivated by concern over its
international reputation, or maybe it is an understanding that economics and geography are already
in the country's favor. Pushing too hard could prompt an anti-China backlash that might lead
Mongolia to seek closer ties with Russia.
Read more…
"In my opinion, it's not a question of whether Mongolia will get money or not, but of the very
existence of Mongolia as an independent country," says Gombosuren Arslan, who leads a Mongolian
political group called the Just Society Front. He wonders: "will Mongolia become a colony of China?"
China is already Mongolia's biggest foreign investor, and new funds are pouring in. In recent months,
China's sovereign-wealth fund, China Investment Corp., agreed to invest $1.2 billion in mining firms
with Mongolian assets. That is about a quarter of Mongolia's gross domestic product, but less than
half a percent of CIC's total assets of $300 billion.
Source: Wall Street Journal
FUEL PRICES DEPEND ON RUSSIA‟S ROSNEFTI
Fuel Mongolian drivers use is directly dependent on the Russian Rosnefti company. When the
company increases the price it goes up, when the price decreases, it still goes up. This month,
Russia raised diesel price by USD 66 per ton, however when prices decreased for AI-92 by USD 15
per ton and for A-80 by USD 10 per ton, the importers are quiet.
The Mongolian Government decreased the previously imposed MNT 65,000 tax on diesel import by
MNT 35,000 and the MNT 60,000 tax on fuel by MNT 20,000. Why the tax difference? What is the
decision based on?
Last week, when the diesel price was increased by MNT 65 per liter, many distributors were
actually against it. However, the head of the oil authority of the country "ordered" them to raise
their price. Some companies were punished for declaring that it was actually possible not to
increase fuel and diesel price. They announced that it was a fake fuel distributor.
Source: Zuunii Medee
HERDERS WILL BE ACTIVE PART OF BUSINESS VIA WIRELESS
Globe International, a NGO along with Inter-news Europe, is implementing a "Business Information"
project funded by the European Union Investment for Asia. To encourage herders to be more
entrepreneurial, five aimags: Uvurkhangai, Dornogovi, Khovd, Khuvsgul and Khentii were chosen to
participate in the implementation of the "Production, sharing and dissemination of business
information" project. Their representatives held a meeting to discuss the content and distribution
of information and how to make it sustainable.
For distributing information and sharing business skills, cell phones were chosen as the best
communication tool. For example, as a result of the business information project, a herder
community learned that there was a huge budget allocated each year for purchasing work uniforms.
So the community got organized and within two months, they gathered up MNT 3 million tugrugs
and started their business. Having access to business information is a big opportunity for many
herders and allows them to find opportunities.
Source: Zuunii Medee
SIX PROVINCES HAVING TOUGH WINTER
Umnugovi, Dundgovi, Govi-Altai, Zavkhan, Uvurkhangai and Bayankhongor aimags, which had a
drought this past summer, are having a disastrous winter with snow covering 83.5% of their
territory. The recent cold days resulted in 113.9 thousand head of livestock dying. Local
governments are using all their reserves due to an exceeding number of livestock that herders bring
from neighboring aimags.
G. Naranchuluun, the Coordination Officer for the Animal Husbandry Policy Implementation
Department of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry claims that 3.3 thousand tons of
grass and 4 thousand ton of fodder have been used to supplement the herders.
Source: Zuunii Medee
EUROPE-MONGOLIA INVESTORS‟ FORUM HELD IN LONDON
The Foreign Investment and Foreign Trade Agency of Mongolia, in cooperation with European Bank
of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and the Embassy of Mongolia to the United Kingdom,
organized the “Europe-Mongolia Investors’ Forum” which took place in London, on December 3,
2009. The main purpose was to promote the business and investment environment of Mongolia to
European investors, as well as to attract quality investment and progressive technology.
A Panel discussion was held on “Economic development and role of foreign investments in
Mongolia” and was moderated by Mr. Philip ter Woort, Head of Ulaanbaatar Representative office,
EBRD, with panelists including Mr. Peter Morrow, CEO, Khan Bank and Founding Chairman of BCM,
Mr. O.Orkhon, Deputy CEO of Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia, Mr. G.Jargalsaihan,
Director of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
Trade, and Dr. Toshi Sakatsume, Principal Economist for Mongolia, EBRD.
The Forum was attended by 320 delegates, with 220 officials, banking, financial, industrial sector
representatives, investors and business people from 25 European countries, and 100 officials,
private sector delegates from Mongolia headed by MP D.Zorigt, Minister for Mineral Resources and
Energy. The forum was sponsored by Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia.
Source: www.InvestMongolia.com
MNMA PARTNERING WITH BCM
BCM officials, Laurenz Melchers, Jim Dwyer and Ser-Od, met with D. Ganbold, President of the
Mongolian National Mining Association (MNMA), on December 10 and exchanged views on next year’s
work plans. It was proposed by BCM that MNMA be represented as members of the BCM Tax
and BCM Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) working groups. Ganbold gave an
update on the MNMA’s 2010 work plan and invited BCM’s participation in a working group of GoM
authorities and Private Sector members hosted by MNMA to be set up for collaboration with the
Government. These mutual efforts will enable both organizations to better coordinate by updating
each other on current developments and efforts being undertaken for the betterment of mining
sector development.
Source: MNMA Weekly News
CHINA NOVEMBER COPPER, ALUMINIUM OUTPUT HIT RECORD
China's producers of refined copper and aluminum churned out record amounts of metal for a third
straight month in November, racing to meet annual output plans for the year.
China, the world's top aluminum smelter and a major copper refiner, produced 420,700 tons of
refined copper in November, up 5.4% from the previous month's 399,300 tons, data from the
National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday. "The record output proved that even small- and
medium-sized smelters increased production," Zhu Yanzhong, an analyst at Jinrui Futures, said.
"Smelters have boosted production due to the market conditions and ahead of the year-end."
A source at top smelter Jiangxi Copper said the firm planned to produce around 74,000 tons of
refined copper a month in the October-December period, allowing it to meet an annual output
target of 800,000 tons this year.
Source: Mining Weekly
RUSSIA FACES WIDER DEFICIT IF SPENDING NOT CURBED
The International Monetary Fund urged Russia to scale back spending and put interest-rate cuts on
hold to avoid creating wider deficits, a weaker ruble and faster inflation. The IMF said economic
and financial conditions have improved and forecast expansion next year of 3.5 percent. Failure to
contain the budget deficit and slow inflation would undermine the recovery and leave the country
more reliant on commodities, the IMF mission warned.
Russia’s budget deficit this year may be wider than official estimates show, Deputy Economy
Minister Andrei Klepach said on Dec. 10, even after the shortfall in the first 11 months indicated
state coffers benefited from oil windfall. He expects a 7 percent gap of gross domestic product in
2009, which compares with a cumulative deficit of 4.9 percent in the year through November. The
budget deficit will be 6.9 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, or 7.3 percent taking into
account subordinated loans the government provided to bolster lenders’ balance sheets.
The Russian banking system has stabilized, according to the IMF report, though “generous liquidity
support is likely to be masking more severe underlying problems.” The IMF said it is concerned that
“significant problems in the banking system could emerge once a normalization of cyclical
conditions forces the central bank to tighten monetary policy.”
Source: Bloomberg
IRISH DISCIPLINE SETS AN EXAMPLE FOR GREECE
Greece and Ireland face the biggest fiscal problems in Europe. But their responses couldn't be more
different. Both countries face double-digit deficits this year: 12.7% of gross domestic product in
Greece and around 12% in Ireland. Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to hit 120% next year;
Ireland's headline ratio of 64% also would rise to more than 100% if the bad debt taken on by the
government under its bank bailouts is included. The European Commission is demanding that both
cut their deficits to below 3% of GDP and reduce debt-to-GDP to less than 60%.
Ireland has shown far greater political courage. Its 2010 budget includes clear spending cuts.
Public-sector wages are to fall by between 5% and 15%; the Prime Minister is taking a 20% cut.
Greece's budget relies heavily on one-time policies such as measures aimed at reducing tax evasion.
Ireland's past record earns it a degree of forbearance. Between 1994 and 2006, Dublin cut its debt
to 24% of GDP from 94%, according to Barclays Capital. Compare that to Greece, which has very
little credibility when it comes to making tough political decisions: It cut debt to only 94% of GDP in
1999 from 108% in 1994 ahead of euro entry, before it started rising again. Dublin enjoys broad
public acceptance of its plans, but Greece faced riots last year and renewed clashes last week.
Athens has little choice but to bite the bullet. The Irish lesson may be a hard one, but Greece needs
to learn it fast.
Source: Wall Street Journal
CHINA 2010 COAL TERM PRICES SEEN RISING 8% ON YEAR
Term prices of thermal coal for 2010 in China are expected to rise about 8 percent from this year's
levels, as demand for power has been roaring back due to steady economic recovery, analysts and
industry officials said. But higher coal prices may bring a tough year for power plants, in the
absence of power tariff hikes or pricing scheme reforms. Six analysts surveyed by Reuters expect
term prices for thermal coal, used in power generation, to rise between 5 and 20 percent from this
year's levels, with consensus around 8 percent. Coal miners and power plants were in a stalemate
over this year's term prices for months, before some power plants quietly accepted price hikes
demanded by coal miners, as power consumption recovered and spot coal prices strengthened.
Power utilities, which just returned to profit this year due to lower coal prices, are again facing
steep rises in production cost and coal miners with increasing negotiating power. "There is an
increasing monopoly in the coal industry, as the consolidation is pushing forward. But the power
sector is still segmented," said an executive at a large power generating group. China's five major
power generating groups, including the parents of GD Power Development Co Ltd, China Power
International, Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd, Huadian Power and Huaneng Power
International, generate nearly half of national output. "We can't do anything. If coal costs rise, we'll
probably see sector-wise losses again," said the executive.
Beijing has cancelled the annual coal price negotiating conference and instead asked suppliers and
users to complete deals within a month, while pledging to improve the power tariff pricing scheme
and keep coal prices stable.
Source: Reuters
CHINA STRUGGLES TO FUEL ITS NUCLEAR ENERGY BOOM
China is driving ahead with an ambitious program to expand its atomic energy capacity over the
next decade, raising questions about its ability to find the uranium it will need. China currently
operates 11 reactors and has 17 under construction, but has 124 more on the drawing boards,
according to industry group the World Nuclear Association (WNA). The expansion program will cause
its demand for uranium to rocket tenfold by 2030, making it the world's second biggest consumer of
the radioactive metal following the United States, according the WNA forecasts.
Concerns have been raised about the availability of sufficient fuel to feed the growing demand in
China and elsewhere. "The uranium market in the future faces a lot of uncertainties with not a
small supply shortage," said Zhou Zhenxing, who heads the uranium development unit at the China
Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation (CGNPC), the second of China's big nuclear firms. When
China announced in a 2006 policy document that it would aim for 40 GW of nuclear capacity by
2020, skeptics noted this meant finding the wherewithal to bring at least two reactors into
operation every year. China had 11 reactors in operation by the end of last year.
U.S.-based Westinghouse Electric is building four of its new AP1000 reactors in coastal Zhejiang and
Shandong provinces. In exchange, China was granted a generous technology transfer agreement that
would make the AP1000 the model for its own "localized" reactors. France's Areva agreed to build
two of its European Pressurized Reactors for the Taishan nuclear project in southeast China's
Guangdong.
Read more…
With every province and region keen to grab a stake in the lucrative nuclear sector, both CGNPC
and CNNC have been scouring the country for potential projects. Every province along the eastern
coast is building new reactors, and a multitude of cities in China's interior are also lobbying to
become the country's first inland nuclear plant.
The need to feed such growing capacity has required the two state-owned giants to hunt the globe
for new sources of fuel - with CGNPC chasing uranium reserves in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Australia
and Namibia, and CNNC signing deals to explore and develop in Mongolia and Niger.
Source: Mining Weekly
NUCLEAR POWER EXPANSION IN CHINA STIRS CONCERNS
China is preparing to build three times as many nuclear power plants in the coming decade as the
rest of the world combined, a breakneck pace with the potential to help slow global warming.
China’s nuclear power industry, with 11 reactors operating and construction starting on as many as
10 each year, is not known to have had a serious accident in 15 years. China is already the largest
emitter of gases blamed for global warming, and the expansion of nuclear power would at least
slow the increase in emissions.
The speed of the construction program has raised safety concerns. China has asked for international
help in training a force of nuclear inspectors.
China is placing many of its nuclear plants near large cities, potentially exposing tens of millions of
people to radiation in the event of an accident. In addition, China must maintain nuclear safeguards
in a business culture where quality and safety sometimes take a back seat to cost-cutting, profits
and outright corruption, as shown by scandals in the food, pharmaceutical, construction and toy
industries.
Read more…
A top-level corruption scandal is already unfolding in the nuclear industry. In August, the Chinese
government dismissed and detained the powerful president of the China National Nuclear
Corporation, Kang Rixin, in a $260 million corruption case involving allegations of bid-rigging in
nuclear power plant construction. The case is a worrisome sign that nuclear executives in China
may not always put safety first in their decision-making.
“It’s a concern, and that’s why we’re all working together because we hear about these things
going on in other industries,” said William P. Poirier, a vice president for Westinghouse Electric,
which is building four nuclear reactors in China. Bringing so much nuclear power online over the
next decade would reduce the country’s energy-related emissions of global warming gases by about
5 percent, compared with the emissions that would be produced by burning coal to generate the
power. But the economy is growing so fast that even if the country can meet its goals, total
emissions will rise 72 to 88 percent by 2020, Mr. Sinton said.
Source: New York Times
IRAQ IS WILD CARD IN WORLD OIL SUPPLY
As 2009 draws to a close, surging demand from countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China
accounted for 61% of demand growth over the past decade, according to the International Energy
Agency. As important, however, was a squeeze on supply. The Energy Policy Research Foundation
has estimated disruption caused by factors like war and resource nationalism lowered potential
global output by between 2.5 million and 4.5 million barrels per day in the second half of this
decade. That is a lot when you consider OPEC's buffer of spare capacity fell below two million
barrels per day by mid-2008, when oil prices peaked. A loosening of supply constraints is the major
risk to the expectations of a rebound priced into oil futures, especially as demand growth will likely
prove lackluster.
The wild card is Iraq, where more licenses for foreign oil companies were awarded last week.
Contract terms encourage firms to maximize output quickly and winners aim to produce 8.5 million
barrels per day. Given Iraq's fragile peace and ravaged infrastructure, that looks unrealistic. But
even if production increased by a more conservative 1.5 million barrels per day by 2015, it could
pressure oil prices through the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC
projects the world will require an extra 3.2 million barrels per day OPEC by 2015. Iraq's increased
production would take up more than half of the extra amount required.
If sovereign-debt concerns ripple out from places like Dubai to squeeze foreign investment
elsewhere, the temptation to pump more oil for cash will increase, pressuring prices. Saudi Arabia,
which maintains a large spare capacity and whose public finances can withstand a lower oil price
than Iran, will likely bridle at taking all the pain of accommodating Iraq. When oil prices collapsed
in 1986 after the second oil shock, it was due to a combination of competing supplies, lackluster
demand growth, and a breakdown in OPEC cohesion.
Source: Wall Street Journal
STOCKS RISE AROUND WORLD ON DUBAI BAILOUT
Stocks rose from Shanghai to London as Abu Dhabi provided $10 billion to avert a default by Dubai’s
Nakheel PJSC. Abu Dhabi’s pledge reassured investors who sent stock markets tumbling last month
on concern defaults would slow the global economic recovery. Dubai’s bailout “puts to rest any
lingering fears that might have existed about possible contagion,” said Tim Condon, head of Asia
credit research for ING Groep NV in Singapore. “It’s inevitable that we’re going to see a few more
incidents of credit stress show up in both banks and corporates, but in terms of it becoming a
macro-economic issue I think Dubai World was as close as we were going to get.”
The Dubai Financial Market General Index climbed to the highest level this month. Abu Dhabi’s ADX
General Index advanced 7.9 percent for the biggest gain since May 2006. Nakheel’s $750 million of
Islamic bonds due 2011 surged to 81.4 cents on the dollar from 36 on Dec. 11, according to
Citigroup Inc. prices.
Source: Bloomberg
ABU DHABI TIGHTENS ITS GRIP AS IT OFFERS HELP TO DUBAI
By providing a $10 billion lifeline to Dubai, Abu Dhabi has granted its debt-stricken neighbor a
critical short-term reprieve from its creditors. But in doing so, it also appears determined to tighten
the reins that Dubai has long resisted.
For decades, Dubai had claimed a special autonomy from Abu Dhabi, the more conservative seat of
the federal government. This freedom let Dubai, which lacks significant oil reserves, establish itself
as a city-state that welcomed all comers, from Iranian and Israeli executives to Western tourists
and profit-hungry bankers. But the $100 billion or so in liabilities that Dubai accumulated in the
process proved to be unsustainable, threatening not only itself but the federation as a whole. But
even as Dubai appeared to be bowing to the inevitable, the markets cheered the unexpectedly swift
move by Abu Dhabi. It remained unclear exactly how Abu Dhabi came to its decision.
Read more…
The intensive talks about the true nature of Dubai’s debt problems broke ground in communication
and disclosure between the emirates, a sign that from here on, Abu Dhabi will impose a much
higher level of scrutiny and supervision over Dubai’s decisions, financial and otherwise. It became
clear that what had started as a negotiating ploy by Dubai World with its creditors had become a
compounding crisis that threatened the global credibility of not only Dubai, but the United Arab
Emirates itself. Dubai World’s standstill created even more of an uproar when a group of foreign
hedge funds that had recently become large holders of the bonds of Nakheel, Dubai World’s
troubled real estate venture, threatened to drive Dubai World into default by rejecting its proposal
to delay interest payments.
According to a statement released by Dubai, the $10 billion was to be used to cover the $4.1 billion
owed to the Nakheel bondholders as well as to provide money for the company to pay its creditors
through April 2010 on the condition that the standstill agreement was accepted. The government
also said that it would impose a “comprehensive reorganization law” to help creditors, a step that
is likely to result in measures that would allow ailing companies to restructure their debts in a more
orderly process. Even with the $10 billion bailout, Dubai remains heavily burdened with debt.
Source: New York Times
POLITICS
PRESIDENT POINTS AT PARLIAMENT‟S CLEAR MISTAKE, VETOS WHOLE BUDGET
Parliament members approved MNT 76 billion in the state budget for development of their
respective regions and each constituent would get MNT 1 billion each. The state budget was
presented to the President of Mongolia on December 4th. The President vetoed the law which was
approved by the Parliament. “It is clearly seen from the protocols of the Parliament’s and Standing
Committee meetings, that the MPs negotiated to spend MNT 1 billion for their representative
constituencies and implement it in the state budget” the President said. He said that this “mistake”
contradicts the basic procedures of the State Constitution. The President stated that he regrets the
Parliament’s move to cover the unnecessary funding under a different name.
The President’s ban is stated in “State Constitution’s 23.1 that a Parliament member is the envoy of
the people and must protect the interests of the citizens and the state. In the job description of
General Budget Administrator, the budget law contradicts with 30.18 the Budgeted Organization
Administration Law and 15.2 of Construction Law”. The President decided to prohibit the whole
budget. The Parliament will now discuss it this week.
Source: News.mn
MPS NEED TO BE STOPPED
D. Dorligjav, the Head of the President's Office made a statement about the President's veto of the
2010 budget. He criticized the attitude of investment, said Mr. Dorligjav. The Parliament was
supposed to discuss the MNT 500 million per electoral district initially allocated by the Ministry of
Finance as an investment for local development projects. However, the amount has been doubled
to the contrary. The Mongolian Constitution Referee said that was breaking the Constitution as well
as the law of Local Government Management and Finance by allocating the money to Ministries
instead of to local governments. Also, the budget covered underestimated construction plans which
were one of the main factors of corruption. The President reminded MPs of not repeating the
previous wrong practices when estimating the budget.
Source: Zuunii Medee
MCC BOARD APPROVES RE-ALLOCATION OF $188 MILLION OF GRANTS
On December 9, the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s (MCC) Board of Directors approved the
allocation of approximately $127 million for two new projects under the Mongolia Compact: the
North-South Road and the Energy and Environment Projects. The projects had been proposed by the
Government of Mongolia to replace the cancelled Rail Project.
Now that the Board has approved the reallocation of funds, over the next month the Governments
of the US and of Mongolia must approve an amendment to the Compact to include these new
projects and a $50 million expansion of the existing projects that had been approved last
September. The total amount re-programmed totals the amount of the original Rail project - $188
million. The two new projects and the expansions will benefit thousands of Mongolians, and will
contribute to the economic growth of the country.
To support the implementation of the new and expanded projects, approximately $4 million has
also been allocated for program administration, environmental assessment, and monitoring and
evaluation. In addition, approximately $7 million is allocated for contingency purposes. The United
States of America looks forward to our on-going collaboration in implementing the Millennium
Challenge Compact with the government and people of Mongolia.
Source: MCA.mn
RUSSIANS ARE NOT HIDING THEIR INTEREST IN MONGOLIA'S COAL
Russia's Railway Association requested USD 1.5 billion from the Russian Government for their
project related to Mongolia, according to Vitalii Morozov, Councilor to the President of RRW and the
Executive Director of the "Infrastructure Development". Russia has initiated the idea, "Instead of
having Tavan Tolgoi, let us build a railway up to Sainshand". Moscow is observing how Mongolia is
arguing over the two different directions of the railway projects. The experts say Moscow was not
idly observing, but taking part cunningly in the game.
Who is going to be the partner for Mongolia's road and transportation infrastructure building? It
means exporting Mongolia's minerals will come under the partner's control later. That is why Russia
believes that it is vital to get connected to Tavan Tolgoi via Trans Mongolia which will successfully
hinder China's road for exporting coal.
The nearest opportunity Russia had for getting Tavan Tolgoi was when Vladimir Putin met with the
Prime Minister to obtain Tavan Tolgoi through the Russian Consortium including Severstali Resurs,
Bazovii Element and Renova. GIG expert Evgenii Bulanov states that Severstali Resurs, who had rich
experiences in coal mining, reduced the chance of getting Tavan Tolgoi by leaving the consortium.
Because without SR, the other companies would not be able to raise USD 2 billion for getting 49% of
Tavan Tolgoi solely.
As things turned out, the Russians have the only option which is to obtain TT via participating in a
railway construction project through its "Infrastructure Development" company which owns 62.5% of
the Mongolia's Railway. So, the Russians are working hard on fundraising now.
Source: Zuunii Medee
CIVIL PARTICIPATION IMPORTANT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY
The National Intelligence Academy conducted a sociologic survey called “National Security and
Foreign Policy”. The survey encompassed 4500 citizens of UB and 20 provinces. 70 percent of the
participants said influence of big nations and dependence of a country is the main external factor
which may impact national security negatively. 20 percent said globalization is the main cause.
Analysts said the majority of the people think influence by big nations is increasing in Mongolia.
Furthermore, 90 percent of the people said food security is insufficient, 80 percent said civil rights
and freedom was not satisfactory. 61.1 percent said economic security was at a low level while 26.5
percent said it does not exist. 21.3 percent thinks Mongolian ecologic security is in extremely
dangerous position while 59.9 percent answered it is becoming worse. 35.2 percent of the
participants said foreign religions have huge impacts in national security while 42.8 percent said it
had a certain impact. Furthermore, 31.3 percent said politics is one of the factors which has a
negative impact on people’s unity, 17 percent said it is caused by a difference between rich and
poor, 33.6 percent said injustice was the main reason. The survey also showed that 74.3 percent of
the people think citizen participation is important for ensuring national security.
Source: News.mn
5,000 DOSES OF LONG-AWAITED H1N1 VACCINE ARRIVE
Munkhiin tun, a national company which obtained permission for importing 50,000 doses of the
H1N1 vaccine, received the first part of 5,000 doses from France this week. The vaccines were
handed over to the National Center for the Study of Infectious Diseases. The at-risk group
comprising of young children and pregnant women shall get the vaccination shots. Tentatively, all
the vaccinations ordered shall be enough for 30% of the entire population of Mongolia.
Source: Zuunii Medee
ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING PROCEDURES PUT INTO PLACE
The Financial Regulation Bureau approved a procedure to prevent money washing and investing in
suspicious activities by knowing customers and keeping informed of suspicious cash transfers. The
bureau worked with Mongolbank on the procedure which orders financial organizations, insurance
companies and bond organizations to inform the higher financial organizations before making a
money transfer of MNT 20 million or above. Furthermore, these suspicious transfers can be
postponed. Suspicious transfers would mean the source of the money and receiver is not clear.
Those customers and organizations transferring money must give detailed information, including
name, home address and phone numbers.
Source: News.mn
CLIMATE CONCERNS PUT ENERGY FOCUS BACK ON URANIUM
Uranium is capturing growing attention amid burgeoning demand for power from emerging nations
and a scramble to curtail carbon emissions. Many nations have seized on uranium and nuclear power
as a carbon-free energy solution despite opposition by environmentalists on safety grounds. The
case for uranium is bolstered by estimates that electricity demand is due to surge by up to two-
thirds by 2030, driven by emerging nations like China and India.
While new plants in the West might face opposition, that is not an issue in China, where the central
government is backing ambitious growth plans. Beijing is moving even faster than official targets to
boost nuclear power to 40 gigawatts by 2020, a more than four-fold rise. India is building six
reactors and has 23 on the drawing boards to add to its existing 17 plants, according to the World
Nuclear Association. The current revival in nuclear power comes after decades of decline in the
wake of the 1986 Chernobyl accident that sparked widespread fears about safety and a virtual
freeze on new plants.
Read more…
Investors in the sector are looking at the long-term picture, confident that a supply squeeze is
looming even if a glut of supplies may cap prices in the short term. "The more that prices are
depressed in the short term, the fewer mines that are likely to be built and developed and that
could possibly exacerbate any price spike," said Will Smith, a London-based portfolio manager on
the Geiger Counter fund run by New City Investment Managers that focuses on uranium producers.
Mining groups seeking to meet higher demand for uranium may face obstacles such as government
red tape, technical mining problems and the hangover of years of underinvestment.
Supplies from dismantled Russian nuclear weapons may help plug shortfalls in mining supply as
Moscow seeks to supply China and India as well as lucrative deals with US utilities.
Source: Reuters
U.S. MOVE MAY GIVE BOOST TO COPENHAGEN CLIMATE TALKS
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has announced that the U.S. is prepared to join other rich
countries in raising $100 billion in yearly climate financing for poor countries by 2020. The
announcement could give a boost to deadlocked climate talks, which have faltered over disputes
between rich and poor countries over emissions cuts and climate financing.
Source: Wall Street Journal
CLIMATE TALKS NEAR DEAL TO SAVE FORESTS
A final draft of the agreement called Reducing Emissions From Deforestation and Forest Degradation
(REDD) was given to ministers of 200 countries. Negotiators said all major points had been resolved
through compromise. The agreement may turn out to be the most significant achievement to come
out of the Copenhagen climate talks, providing a system through which countries can be paid for
conserving disappearing natural assets based on their contribution to reducing emissions.
A final agreement may not be announced until the end of the week, when President Obama and
other world leaders arrive, in part because there has been so little progress on other issues at the
climate summit meeting, sponsored by the United Nations. “It is likely to be the most concrete
thing that comes out of Copenhagen — and it is a very big thing,” said Fred Krupp, head of the
Environmental Defense Fund.
For poorer countries, the payments will provide a much-needed new income stream. For richer
nations, the lure of the program is not cash but carbon credits that can be used to cancel out, in
part, their industrial emissions under a carbon trading system, like the cap-and-trade plan currently
under consideration by Congress. Under the cap-and-trade system, companies that cannot meet
their greenhouse gas pollution limit could buy extra permits by investing in carbon-reduction
programs abroad. Plans to preserve forests under REDD would presumably qualify. The forest
program “offers the opportunities for U.S. companies to reduce emissions at lower cost, which is
very important politically,” Mr. Krupp said.
Ban Ki-moon, secretary general of the United Nations, addressed the delegates Tuesday night as
they moved into the final days of negotiations. “We do not have another year to deliberate,” he
said. “Nature does not negotiate.”
Source: New York Times
NORTH KOREA‟S FOUR-PARTY PLOY
Last Sunday, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported that the U.S. and North Korea have
agreed to resume the four-party talks to formally end the Korean War. By proposing a revival of the
troubled negotiations at this time, Pyongyang is up to no good. The North Koreans suggested the
revival of the Korean War talks last week during the visit of U.S. special envoy Stephen Bosworth to
Pyongyang. The previous round of negotiations to reach a peace agreement, which would replace
the 1953 armistice, stalled in 1999 over Pyongyang's objection to the participation of arch-enemy
South Korea, which did not sign the 1953 cease-fire.
By raising this now, the North Koreans have managed to switch the topic of multilateral
negotiations from disarmament to something else. Mr. Bosworth's original mission in Pyongyang was
to restart the stalled six-party talks to "denuclearize" the North. The North Koreans have
complicated matters by raising an entirely new set of issues. The four-party talks exclude two
nations that participate in the six-party process, Russia and Japan.
Another danger is that the four-party talks pave the way for Washington and its allies to provide
material assistance, should the talks succeed. In recent years, North Korea has become less
amenable to giving up its nukes once it has received international support. The U.S. should be wary
of propping up the Pyongyang regime right now. The North Korean economy looks like it is in
turmoil after the botched demonetization of paper currency two weeks ago that resulted in unrest
across the country. By agreeing to the four-party talks, Washington has fallen for an oft-used North
Korean ploy. The U.S. has also given up an important advantage by permitting the North Koreans to
exclude the Japanese. The prospects for peace in North Asia just got smaller.
Read more…
The Russians have never taken the disarmament discussions seriously. The Japanese have played a
crucial role. Tokyo's diplomats worked hard to make sure Washington did not buckle under Chinese
pressure while the U.N. Security Council considered imposing sanctions on the North. That is part of
the reason why Pyongyang wants the Japanese out of the picture. With Japan gone, the U.S. loses
an important negotiating ally. The exclusion of two countries from the bargaining table gives North
Korea an opportunity to employ its classic tactic: divide the powers it faces. Kim has tried to kill
the six-party talks from the beginning because he does not want to confront all his adversaries in
the same room. In the months ahead, expect Kim to announce that a formal end to the Korean War
is a precondition to a six-party deal.
Source: Dow Jones
SEIZED NORTH KOREA ARMS CACHE RAISES NEW QUESTIONS
Thai investigators searching cargo seized from a plane from North Korea have found weaponry that
includes missiles uncommon in Southeast Asia, adding to suspicions that the arms were destined for
the Middle East or elsewhere. Thai government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said the cache,
taken from a plane from Pyongyang that stopped in Bangkok to refuel, included shoulder missiles as
well as large rockets, electronics and fire-control systems that "seem to be quite sophisticated."
Although inspectors are still working to fully identify the weapons, in Southeast Asia "we don't have
these kinds of rockets," he said.
The United Nations Security Council approved rules in June that ban North Korea from exporting
arms and called on states to inspect its cargoes in their airports and seaports if they are believed to
carry banned items. The rules were developed after North Korea tested a nuclear explosive in late
May in defiance of U.N. sanctions. The cargo's final destination isn't clear. Some analysts said the
arms might have been intended for Myanmar, that has demonstrated closer ties with North Korea
and is at risk of ethnic unrest before a national election next year. Some analysts speculated the
weapons could have been destined from there for Pakistan, the Middle East, or an African nation
such as Sudan.
Thai police continue to hold the crew members, four from Kazakhstan and one from Belarus, who
were charged with illegal arms possession. They face up to 10 years in prison and have denied
knowledge of the weapons, saying they thought they were ferrying oil-drilling equipment.
Previously, the plane was owned by companies that the U.S. Treasury Department linked to
suspected Russian arms trafficker Viktor Bout, according to AeroTransport Data Bank, an Internet
service that tracks aircraft.
Source: Wall Street Journal
NEW MONGOLIAN LAWS
The following addendum to a current Mongolian law was published in a recent weekly Government
bulletin. Unless otherwise decided by Parliament, the addendum takes effect (10) days after
publication.
Date Law
12/11/2009 Addendum to Law on Medicine, medical tools
Please visit BCM’s website, Legislative Committee, for a summary of new Mongolian laws.
BCM members who wish complete versions of the laws in Mongolian language are welcome to call or
email the BCM office (332345; info@bcmongolia.org)
ANNOUNCEMENTS
PANTHERE MIDLAND AUDIT LLC NAMED NATIONAL COMPANY OF MONGOLIA
Roy Dongen, General Director of Panthere Midland Audit LLC, announced that Panthere Midland
Audit LLC, a Netherlands (EU)-Mongolian JV, has been elected a National Company of Mongolia. It is
joined with three other major Mongolian companies - Jiguur Grand, Sansar Cable and Montrans. This
election takes place every 4 years by a combined organization which includes the Tax Authority of
Mongolia and the Social Insurance Office. The awards are given to companies that are loyal
contributors of taxes and social insurance and that contribute to the development of Mongolia in
general. “We would like to thank all our clients and staff members for helping our young
organization achieve this within the third year of our establishment”, said Mr. Dongen.
_________________________________________
“MM TODAY” ON MNB-TV
BCM is pleased to announce that Mongolian National Broadcasting continues its cooperation with
BCM on “MM Today”. This English news program is aired every Friday for 10 minutes and is
scheduled for 22:25 tonight. Tune in to watch this program that reports stories from today’s BCM
NewsWire.
SPONSORS
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
MSE WEEKLY REVIEW
For the week ended December 11, 2009, trading activity on the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE)
totaled 136,600 shares with 33 companies traded. Total market value of transactions was MNT
118.4 million. Total market capitalization of the 358 stock companies listed on the MSE was MNT
590.8 billion, and decreased by MNT 10.4 billion or 1.7% from the previous week.
The Top-20 Index decreased by 183.43 points or 3.0% compared to the previous week, closing at
5,911.53 points. The MSE Composite Index decreased by 71.80 points or 2.4% compared to the
previous week, closing at 2,988.68 points.
Most active stocks traded were: Khuh gan (47,500 shares), APU (39,900 shares), and Genco tur buro
(12,000 shares).
Major share price percentage gainers were: Selenge sureg (15%), Jinst Uvs (15%), Monnab (14.9%),
Eermel (5.5%), and Khuh gan (4.3%). Major share price percentage losers were: Gobi (15.2 %), Gutal
(14.9%), Moningbar(13.6 %), Shivee ovoo (9.4%), and NIC (5.9%).
INFLATION
Year 2006 6.0% [source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia (NSOM)]
Year 2007 *15.1% [source: NSOM]
Year 2008 *22.1% [source: NSOM]
November 30, 2009 *3.5% [source: NSOM]
*Year-over-year (y-o-y)
CENTRAL BANK POLICY LOAN RATE
December 31, 2008 9.75% [source: IMF]
March 11, 2009 14.00% [source: IMF]
May 12, 2009 12.75% [source: IMF]
June 12, 2009 11.50% [source: IMF]
September 30, 2009 10.00% [source: IMF]
CURRENCY RATES – December 17, 2009
Currency name Currency Rate
US dollars USD 1443.17
Euro EUR 2096.57
Japanese yen JPY 16.09
British pound GBP 2346.31
Hong Kong dollar HKD 186.12
Chinese yuan CNY 211.37
Russian ruble RUB 47.72
South Korean won KRW 1.24
Disclaimer: Except for reporting on BCM’s activities, all information in the BCM NewsWire is
selected from various news sources. Opinions are those of the respective news sources.

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18.12.2009, NEWSWIRE, Issue 99

  • 1. BUSINESS COUNCIL of MONGOLIA NewsWire www.bcmongolia.org info@bcmongolia.org Issue 99, December 18 2009 SEASON‟S GREETINGS BCM wishes all Members and Friends a happy, healthy and prosperous holiday season and 2010. There will be no BCM NewsWire on December 25. On January 1 we will distribute a special Year-End Issue covering developments in 2009. BCM‟s office will be closed from December 25 to reopen on January 4. NEWS HIGHLIGHTS: Business:  Mongolia to Establish Three National Holding Companies;  Khan Resources Urges Rejection of ARMZ Takeover Offer;  More Banks do not Meet Requirements;  Some Mined Areas Not Rehabilitated;  Oyu Tolgoi Mineral Resources Potential Increases;  Rio Tinto to Replace Iron-Ore Negotiator;  Kazakhmys to Invest $5 billion in Copper Production, Refining;  China Pension Fund to Triple Overseas Investment;  Chinese Car Maker to Purchase Pieces of GM’s Saab. Economy:  Mongolian Wolf to Be ‘Unstoppable’;  Economy to Improve in 2010, says Ch. Khashchuluun of NDIC;  China Casts its Shadow on Mongolia;  Fuel Prices Depend on Russia’s Rosnefti;  Herders will be Active Part of Business via Wireless;  Six Provinces Having a Tough Winter;  Europe-Mongolia Investors’ Forum held in London;  MNMA Partnering with BCM;  China November Copper, Aluminum Output Hit Record;  Russia Faces Wider Deficit if Spending not Curbed;  Irish Discipline Sets an Example for Greece;  China 2010 Coal Term Prices Seen Rising 8% on Year;  China Struggles to Fuel its Nuclear Energy Boom;  Nuclear Power Expansion in China Stirs Concerns;  Iraq is Wild Card in World Oil Supply;  Stocks Rise Around World on Dubai Bailout;  Abu Dhabi Tightens Its Grip as It Offers Help to Dubai. Politics:  President Points at Parliament’s Clear Mistake, Vetoes Whole Budget;  MPs Need to be Stopped, says D. Dorligjav;  MCC Board Approves Re-Allocation of $188 Million of Grants;  Russians are not Hiding Their Interest in Mongolia’s Coal;  Civil Participation Important for National Security;
  • 2.  5,000 Doses of Long-Awaited H1N1 Vaccine Arrive;  Anti-Money Laundering Procedures Put into Place;  Climate Concerns Put Energy Focus Back on Uranium;  U.S. Move May Give Boost to Copenhagen Climate Talks;  Climate Talks Near Deal to Save Forests;  North Korea’s Four-Party Ploy;  Seized North Korea Arms Cache Raises New Questions. BUSINESS MONGOLIA TO ESTABLISH THREE NATIONAL HOLDING COMPANIES Mongolia is seeking to create three national holding companies. Prime Minister Batbold made a number of important policy statements in recent meetings with mining industry executives, representatives of the securities market, as well as the Wall Street Journal. The Mongolian government intends to establish three major state-owned holding companies and raise significant amounts of capital by offering their shares in international and domestic stock markets. Raising billions of dollars through IPOs would allow the mineral-rich nation to finance major mining, energy and infrastructure projects. These three envisioned national holding companies are: - Mongol Erdes (Mongolian Minerals) to consolidate mining assets; - Mongol Erchim (Mongolian Power) to combine power assets; - Mongol Ded Butets (Mongolian Infrastructure) to include various infrastructure projects. We highly rate the Prime Minister’s vision and initiatives in developing the national economy, local capital markets, and effectively managing resource wealth. If these initiatives are successfully implemented, they would be the main engines of industrialization and economic growth in the coming decade as publicly-listed companies are poised to become one of best investment opportunities in Mongolia. Source: www.eurasiac.com KHAN RESOURCES URGES REJECTION OF ARMZ TAKEOVER OFFER The board of TSX-listed Khan Resources recommends that shareholders reject an unsolicited offer from Russia's Atomredmetzoloto (ARMZ), labeling the bid "highly prejudicial and opportunistic". The company said it is pursuing alternative transactions that could offer better "strategic value". ARMZ offered $0.65 in cash per Khan share, which the Canadian firm's financial advisor has also said is inadequate from a financial point of view. Khan said the ARMZ offer exposes the company to "serious risks", because it comes at a time when Khan is trying to re-register mining and exploration licenses in Mongolia for its Dornod uranium project, under a new nuclear energy law in the country. "ARMZ is seeking to take advantage of Khan at a vulnerable time, and to capitalize on this regulatory uncertainty," said Grant Edey, who chairs Khan's special committee of directors. "The special committee and Khan management are focused on finding alternative strategic transactions that take into account the interests of all relevant stakeholders and recognize the reality of the current circumstances in Mongolia and the critical value of maintaining a positive working relationship with the Mongolian government," Edey said. Khan holds a 58% interest in Central Asian Uranium Company (CAUC), which holds a mining license on the Dornod uranium project in Mongolia. ARMZ subsidiary Priargunsky owns 21% of CAUC and Mongolian government-owned MonAtom holds the balance. Source: Mining Weekly MORE BANKS DO NOT MEET REQUIREMENTS During the meeting of the Budget Standing Committee of the Parliament, officials were not denying that there were other banks following the path of Anod and Zoos banks. At the meeting, when MP B. Choijilsuren asked if there were any banks going bankrupt like Zoos, First Deputy Governor of MongolBank B. Enkhkhuyag answered that there were banks that do not meet requirements, but not quite like Anod or Zoos banks. S. Bayartsogt claimed that bond issue will be raised again for Anod customers from the Government. Bonds of MNT 140-170 billion shall be issued, which are non- refundable. In the meantime, the Government has become owner of loans of Zoos Bank and newly established
  • 3. "State Bank". In order to establish a smooth run of State Bank, about MNT 100 billion of funding is required. Seven of the 12 members of the standing committee agree to discuss the bond resolution at the Parliament joint session. Mr. Enkhkhuyag stated that the Central Bank staff had already started going after the bad loans which were granted to Mongol Gazar and its subsidiaries. Good loans from Zoos Bank were transferred to the State Bank, and the bad ones left in the Mongol Bank. S. Bayartsogt, said that the bonds will be repaid by the State Bank, which was established by the Government resolution. Its board representatives were established by the Committee of the State Property. The head of the board is the Vice Minister of Finance, T. Ochirkhuu. The board members discussed and delegated a team for managing the bank, which consist of foreign experts. That way the team can be free from political pressure. The bonds shall be sold domestically and to the Mongol Bank. The term and interest rate remain confidential. Source: Zuunii Medee SOME MINED AREAS NOT REHABILITATED The amount of land destroyed as a result of mining has reached 11799.4 hectare. In Uvurkhangai, Arkhangai, Dornod and Khentii provinces, 1200 hectare that were mined have not been rehabilitated, according to the national inspectors' assessment. Economic loss from such environmental damage cannot be estimated. However, the value of rehabilitation per hectare will be set up in the coming year. The following companies were found to be mining illegally in Dundgovi, Arkhangai and Dornogovi provinces: Meriflulord, Jonsht Gazar, New-fluorite, Tumen, Teeliin shonkhor, Taikhar deposit, Jung Yuan, Ejung Meng in Dundgovi aimag, Zolotoi Vostok Mongoliya in Arkangai aimag, Mongolrostsvetmet and Guoming in Dornogovi aimag. Moreover, some national companies will be sued for damages on unrehabilitated areas. On the other hand, due to the Baganuur coal mining operation, small lakes have nearly dried up. The company made a channel to the lakes and re-introduced fish from Herlen River. Eventually, birds such as swan started gathering again. These rehabilitation efforts were successful. Source: Zuunii Medee OYU TOLGOI MINERAL RESOURCES POTENTIAL INCREASES An expanded induced polarization (IP) survey has significantly increased the potential for additional resources to be discovered at Ivanhoe Mines’ Oyu Tolgoi Project in southern Mongolia. The IP survey was aimed at testing the full extent of the 12km-long chain of copper-gold porphyry deposits Ivanhoe discovered in 2001. The Zeus exploration technology used in this work succeeded in further defining the spatial extent of the known ore bodies and revealed previously undetected mineralization to depths of 3500 meters. GoviEx Gold’s chief geophysicist Grant Hendrickson says the IP and resistivity technology has shown that the main Hugo North deposit has an induced polarization depth extent that is at least 2.5 times greater than what has been defined to date by years of drilling. “The geophysical survey data also show that the size and amplitude of the core of this immense sulphide body is increasing with depth.” Mr. Hendrickson says there is excellent potential to very significantly increase Oyu Tolgoi’s current mineral resources through an expanded, deep-drilling program conducted from the surface and also underground. Source: www.ivanhoe-mines.com RIO TINTO TO REPLACE IRON-ORE NEGOTIATOR Rio Tinto is replacing its chief iron-ore negotiator ahead of 2010 talks on benchmark prices after this year's talks failed to reach an accord with China. The nation is the world's biggest consumer of iron ore, a key ingredient in steel, so the prices it negotiates are highly influential on world markets. Will Malaney, president of Rio Tinto Iron Ore Asia, is handing over his responsibility as Rio's chief negotiator to Danny Goeman, Rio Tinto Iron Ore Asia's general manager of marketing. The change allows Mr. Malaney to "focus exclusively on managing Asian sales in his ongoing role as president of Rio Tinto Iron Ore Asia". Rio Tinto's Mr. Greene dismissed any suggestion that its change was intended to recast the leadership of the iron-ore talks following Rio Tinto's difficulties in China this year. Chinese authorities detained four Rio Tinto executives, including an Australian citizen, on allegations of
  • 4. bribery and stealing commercial secrets. The company has denied wrongdoing. The China Iron and Steel Association took over negotiations for China for the first time this year, after five years of Baosteel representing Chinese mills in talks with Rio Tinto and fellow mining giants BHP Billiton Ltd. and Vale SA. Baosteel is replacing China Iron and Steel as the chief negotiator for the Chinese side in 2010. Source: Wall Street Journal KAZAKHMYS TO INVEST $5 BILLION IN COPPER PRODUCTION, REFINING Kazakh copper giant Kazakhmys plans to invest $4 billion in its copper deposits and a further $1 billion in refining facilities within the next five to six years, a company official said. "Our program for the next five years is to build two large blocks at Bozshakol and Aktogai (copper deposits) that would allow us to increase capacity by 30% on average," Eduard Ogai, head of the company's Kazakh operations, told reporters. "Investments into those two objects will total about $4 billion," he said. Kazakh state welfare fund Samruk-Kazyna, a Kazakhmys shareholder, said in October that China's Development Bank could lend Kazakhmys between $1.5 billion and $2 billion to finance the Bozshakol project. Source: Reuters CHINA PENSION FUND TO TRIPLE OVERSEAS INVESTMENT China's national pension fund plans to nearly triple its overseas investments, as the fast-growing fund seeks to diversify assets and boost returns following its first losses in the stock market last year. The National Social Security Fund, already one of the world's largest pension funds by assets, plans to maintain the proportion of its equity investments and reduce its holdings in fixed-income products, and invest in unlisted companies and private equity overseas, said fund Chairman Dai Xianglong. The fund aims to increase the proportion of overseas investments in its total assets to 20%, the maximum allowed by the government, from 7%, he said. Read more… "The national pension fund will grow beyond 1 trillion yuan ($146.5 billion) in assets in the next two years," he said. "Hence, the National Social Security Fund will strive to improve management and increase value preservation and enhancement." As of the end of September, the fund had 678 billion yuan worth of assets under management, of which fixed-income investments accounted for 45%, domestic and foreign stocks 30%, private-equity investments 20%, and cash 5%. The fund's investment income totaled 55.6 billion yuan in the January-September period, a return of 9.84%. Its investment return ratio swung to a decline of 6.79% in 2008 from a rise of 38.93% in 2007. Mr. Dai said the pension fund's minimum investment goal by 2012 is to beat inflation, with an average annualized return of no less than 3.5% between 2008 and 2012. Source: Dow Jones CHINESE CAR MAKER TO PURCHASE PIECES OF GM‟S SAAB General Motors Co.'s Saab Automobile AB unit and China's Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings Co. said Saab has closed on the sale of certain assets, including intellectual property for two sedans and equipment to produce those cars, to Beijing Auto. Beijing Auto, China's fifth-largest car maker, has bought intellectual property rights for Saab 9-3 models, the current 9-5 models, and powertrain technology and tooling. The Swedish car maker said that tooling for its current 9-5 model will move to China, where it will be used to make Beijing Auto vehicles, and Saab will assist Beijing Auto in integrating the technology into its vehicles. The deal is part of a broader push by China to create a small number of globally competitive auto makers through domestic consolidation and by acquiring foreign auto makers or their technology. Chinese car makers are gaining strength thanks in part to a home market that has boomed as the rest of the world's car markets have sputtered. China is on track to post total vehicle sales of more than 13 million this year, surpassing the U.S. as the world's biggest auto market. Read more… Selling Saab is a key element of GM's revitalization strategy, but the U.S. auto maker has struggled to seal a deal. Last month, Swedish sports-car maker Koenigsegg Group AB unexpectedly dropped a separate bid for Saab. Beijing Auto had been putting the finishing touches on a deal to help Koenigsegg finance that acquisition, in exchange for which the Chinese company was supposed to
  • 5. secure access to Saab's technology and know-how. Source: Wall Street Journal ECONOMY MONGOLIAN WOLF TO BE „UNSTOPPABLE‟ Mongolia may become the world’s fastest-growing economy in the next decade as untapped mineral deposits lure investors, Renaissance Capital said last week. “We think Mongolia may be able to position itself as the next Asian tiger or, as they prefer, Mongolian wolf,” strategists Roland Nash and Ovanes Oganisian wrote. Mongolia’s “unstoppable” transformation will begin next year as foreign mining companies seek access to some of the world’s largest untapped deposits of gold, copper and coal. Ivanhoe Mines and Rio Tinto Group signed an agreement with Mongolia in October to develop the $4 billion Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold project. Investment in the Oyu Tolgoi deposit will be equivalent on an annual basis to 10 percent of Mongolia’s current gross domestic product, Renaissance Capital said. Mongolia may emerge as the world’s fastest-growing economy. Mongolia has the world’s biggest copper reserves and the ninth-largest coal supplies as well as deposits of uranium, rare-earth metals, gold, lead and zinc, the report said. Coal output will double in the next five years, while gold output will triple and copper production will quadruple, the investment bank said. Mongolia’s economy will probably double in dollar terms by 2014 or grow by 80 percent in the period under the International Monetary Fund’s “more conservative” outlook. Source: Moscow Times, Bloomberg ECONOMY TO IMPROVE IN 2010, SAYS CH.KHASHCHULUUN OF NDIC Dr. Ch. Khashchuluun, Chairman of the National Development and Innovation Committee, states “the Mongolian economy will improve in 2010. There are three factors for the improvement. First, the world market is getting better and that will impact our country positively because our country has export orientation. Secondly, domestic investment is increasing, even though the budget has been estimated to be with loss. We need to run a policy that activates the economy by increasing investment and cover the loss of the budget. Third, the real estate sector is gradually reviving. As it revives, more jobs will be created.” The greatest impact on the economy is anticipated from the mining industry. For instance, OT is bringing a great deal of investment which is approved by the experts. According to Khaschuluun, per the NDIC “the economic growth is estimated to be up by 7.4%, whereby the International Monetary Fund provided an estimation of 8%, which indicates that our estimation can be feasible/realistic.” Source: News.mn CHINA CASTS ITS SHADOW ON MONGOLIA China's economic growth and its implications for the world inspire both optimism and fear. In Ulaanbaatar, the capital of a country with a strategic importance to China, the promise and the threat loom large these days. In Mongolia, China's role as the catalyst for interest in untapped mineral and energy resources has fueled optimism. Chinese demand for coal, copper and other resources means anyone investing in the businesses that excavate them has a guaranteed market right next door. Some in Mongolia fear China may swallow Mongolia’s economy. Mongolia's leadership is adept at maintaining equilibrium between China and Russia. In a recent interview, Prime Minister Batbold said he welcomed Chinese investment, but he also wants to promote "balanced interest and investment" from a number of countries. That is one reason Mongolia is eager to see Peabody Energy Corp. play a role in the development of the Tavan Tolgoi coal mine. Despite its enormous financial influence, China has kept its profile in Mongolia relatively low-key. It has built up a presence in the mining sector through investments in companies with those assets, such as Canadian-listed coal miner SouthGobi Energy Resources Ltd. and Western Prospector Group Ltd., a Canadian uranium exploration company. Perhaps China is motivated by concern over its international reputation, or maybe it is an understanding that economics and geography are already in the country's favor. Pushing too hard could prompt an anti-China backlash that might lead Mongolia to seek closer ties with Russia.
  • 6. Read more… "In my opinion, it's not a question of whether Mongolia will get money or not, but of the very existence of Mongolia as an independent country," says Gombosuren Arslan, who leads a Mongolian political group called the Just Society Front. He wonders: "will Mongolia become a colony of China?" China is already Mongolia's biggest foreign investor, and new funds are pouring in. In recent months, China's sovereign-wealth fund, China Investment Corp., agreed to invest $1.2 billion in mining firms with Mongolian assets. That is about a quarter of Mongolia's gross domestic product, but less than half a percent of CIC's total assets of $300 billion. Source: Wall Street Journal FUEL PRICES DEPEND ON RUSSIA‟S ROSNEFTI Fuel Mongolian drivers use is directly dependent on the Russian Rosnefti company. When the company increases the price it goes up, when the price decreases, it still goes up. This month, Russia raised diesel price by USD 66 per ton, however when prices decreased for AI-92 by USD 15 per ton and for A-80 by USD 10 per ton, the importers are quiet. The Mongolian Government decreased the previously imposed MNT 65,000 tax on diesel import by MNT 35,000 and the MNT 60,000 tax on fuel by MNT 20,000. Why the tax difference? What is the decision based on? Last week, when the diesel price was increased by MNT 65 per liter, many distributors were actually against it. However, the head of the oil authority of the country "ordered" them to raise their price. Some companies were punished for declaring that it was actually possible not to increase fuel and diesel price. They announced that it was a fake fuel distributor. Source: Zuunii Medee HERDERS WILL BE ACTIVE PART OF BUSINESS VIA WIRELESS Globe International, a NGO along with Inter-news Europe, is implementing a "Business Information" project funded by the European Union Investment for Asia. To encourage herders to be more entrepreneurial, five aimags: Uvurkhangai, Dornogovi, Khovd, Khuvsgul and Khentii were chosen to participate in the implementation of the "Production, sharing and dissemination of business information" project. Their representatives held a meeting to discuss the content and distribution of information and how to make it sustainable. For distributing information and sharing business skills, cell phones were chosen as the best communication tool. For example, as a result of the business information project, a herder community learned that there was a huge budget allocated each year for purchasing work uniforms. So the community got organized and within two months, they gathered up MNT 3 million tugrugs and started their business. Having access to business information is a big opportunity for many herders and allows them to find opportunities. Source: Zuunii Medee SIX PROVINCES HAVING TOUGH WINTER Umnugovi, Dundgovi, Govi-Altai, Zavkhan, Uvurkhangai and Bayankhongor aimags, which had a drought this past summer, are having a disastrous winter with snow covering 83.5% of their territory. The recent cold days resulted in 113.9 thousand head of livestock dying. Local governments are using all their reserves due to an exceeding number of livestock that herders bring from neighboring aimags. G. Naranchuluun, the Coordination Officer for the Animal Husbandry Policy Implementation Department of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry claims that 3.3 thousand tons of grass and 4 thousand ton of fodder have been used to supplement the herders. Source: Zuunii Medee EUROPE-MONGOLIA INVESTORS‟ FORUM HELD IN LONDON The Foreign Investment and Foreign Trade Agency of Mongolia, in cooperation with European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and the Embassy of Mongolia to the United Kingdom, organized the “Europe-Mongolia Investors’ Forum” which took place in London, on December 3, 2009. The main purpose was to promote the business and investment environment of Mongolia to European investors, as well as to attract quality investment and progressive technology.
  • 7. A Panel discussion was held on “Economic development and role of foreign investments in Mongolia” and was moderated by Mr. Philip ter Woort, Head of Ulaanbaatar Representative office, EBRD, with panelists including Mr. Peter Morrow, CEO, Khan Bank and Founding Chairman of BCM, Mr. O.Orkhon, Deputy CEO of Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia, Mr. G.Jargalsaihan, Director of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and Dr. Toshi Sakatsume, Principal Economist for Mongolia, EBRD. The Forum was attended by 320 delegates, with 220 officials, banking, financial, industrial sector representatives, investors and business people from 25 European countries, and 100 officials, private sector delegates from Mongolia headed by MP D.Zorigt, Minister for Mineral Resources and Energy. The forum was sponsored by Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia. Source: www.InvestMongolia.com MNMA PARTNERING WITH BCM BCM officials, Laurenz Melchers, Jim Dwyer and Ser-Od, met with D. Ganbold, President of the Mongolian National Mining Association (MNMA), on December 10 and exchanged views on next year’s work plans. It was proposed by BCM that MNMA be represented as members of the BCM Tax and BCM Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) working groups. Ganbold gave an update on the MNMA’s 2010 work plan and invited BCM’s participation in a working group of GoM authorities and Private Sector members hosted by MNMA to be set up for collaboration with the Government. These mutual efforts will enable both organizations to better coordinate by updating each other on current developments and efforts being undertaken for the betterment of mining sector development. Source: MNMA Weekly News CHINA NOVEMBER COPPER, ALUMINIUM OUTPUT HIT RECORD China's producers of refined copper and aluminum churned out record amounts of metal for a third straight month in November, racing to meet annual output plans for the year. China, the world's top aluminum smelter and a major copper refiner, produced 420,700 tons of refined copper in November, up 5.4% from the previous month's 399,300 tons, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday. "The record output proved that even small- and medium-sized smelters increased production," Zhu Yanzhong, an analyst at Jinrui Futures, said. "Smelters have boosted production due to the market conditions and ahead of the year-end." A source at top smelter Jiangxi Copper said the firm planned to produce around 74,000 tons of refined copper a month in the October-December period, allowing it to meet an annual output target of 800,000 tons this year. Source: Mining Weekly RUSSIA FACES WIDER DEFICIT IF SPENDING NOT CURBED The International Monetary Fund urged Russia to scale back spending and put interest-rate cuts on hold to avoid creating wider deficits, a weaker ruble and faster inflation. The IMF said economic and financial conditions have improved and forecast expansion next year of 3.5 percent. Failure to contain the budget deficit and slow inflation would undermine the recovery and leave the country more reliant on commodities, the IMF mission warned. Russia’s budget deficit this year may be wider than official estimates show, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said on Dec. 10, even after the shortfall in the first 11 months indicated state coffers benefited from oil windfall. He expects a 7 percent gap of gross domestic product in 2009, which compares with a cumulative deficit of 4.9 percent in the year through November. The budget deficit will be 6.9 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, or 7.3 percent taking into account subordinated loans the government provided to bolster lenders’ balance sheets. The Russian banking system has stabilized, according to the IMF report, though “generous liquidity support is likely to be masking more severe underlying problems.” The IMF said it is concerned that “significant problems in the banking system could emerge once a normalization of cyclical conditions forces the central bank to tighten monetary policy.” Source: Bloomberg
  • 8. IRISH DISCIPLINE SETS AN EXAMPLE FOR GREECE Greece and Ireland face the biggest fiscal problems in Europe. But their responses couldn't be more different. Both countries face double-digit deficits this year: 12.7% of gross domestic product in Greece and around 12% in Ireland. Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to hit 120% next year; Ireland's headline ratio of 64% also would rise to more than 100% if the bad debt taken on by the government under its bank bailouts is included. The European Commission is demanding that both cut their deficits to below 3% of GDP and reduce debt-to-GDP to less than 60%. Ireland has shown far greater political courage. Its 2010 budget includes clear spending cuts. Public-sector wages are to fall by between 5% and 15%; the Prime Minister is taking a 20% cut. Greece's budget relies heavily on one-time policies such as measures aimed at reducing tax evasion. Ireland's past record earns it a degree of forbearance. Between 1994 and 2006, Dublin cut its debt to 24% of GDP from 94%, according to Barclays Capital. Compare that to Greece, which has very little credibility when it comes to making tough political decisions: It cut debt to only 94% of GDP in 1999 from 108% in 1994 ahead of euro entry, before it started rising again. Dublin enjoys broad public acceptance of its plans, but Greece faced riots last year and renewed clashes last week. Athens has little choice but to bite the bullet. The Irish lesson may be a hard one, but Greece needs to learn it fast. Source: Wall Street Journal CHINA 2010 COAL TERM PRICES SEEN RISING 8% ON YEAR Term prices of thermal coal for 2010 in China are expected to rise about 8 percent from this year's levels, as demand for power has been roaring back due to steady economic recovery, analysts and industry officials said. But higher coal prices may bring a tough year for power plants, in the absence of power tariff hikes or pricing scheme reforms. Six analysts surveyed by Reuters expect term prices for thermal coal, used in power generation, to rise between 5 and 20 percent from this year's levels, with consensus around 8 percent. Coal miners and power plants were in a stalemate over this year's term prices for months, before some power plants quietly accepted price hikes demanded by coal miners, as power consumption recovered and spot coal prices strengthened. Power utilities, which just returned to profit this year due to lower coal prices, are again facing steep rises in production cost and coal miners with increasing negotiating power. "There is an increasing monopoly in the coal industry, as the consolidation is pushing forward. But the power sector is still segmented," said an executive at a large power generating group. China's five major power generating groups, including the parents of GD Power Development Co Ltd, China Power International, Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd, Huadian Power and Huaneng Power International, generate nearly half of national output. "We can't do anything. If coal costs rise, we'll probably see sector-wise losses again," said the executive. Beijing has cancelled the annual coal price negotiating conference and instead asked suppliers and users to complete deals within a month, while pledging to improve the power tariff pricing scheme and keep coal prices stable. Source: Reuters CHINA STRUGGLES TO FUEL ITS NUCLEAR ENERGY BOOM China is driving ahead with an ambitious program to expand its atomic energy capacity over the next decade, raising questions about its ability to find the uranium it will need. China currently operates 11 reactors and has 17 under construction, but has 124 more on the drawing boards, according to industry group the World Nuclear Association (WNA). The expansion program will cause its demand for uranium to rocket tenfold by 2030, making it the world's second biggest consumer of the radioactive metal following the United States, according the WNA forecasts. Concerns have been raised about the availability of sufficient fuel to feed the growing demand in China and elsewhere. "The uranium market in the future faces a lot of uncertainties with not a small supply shortage," said Zhou Zhenxing, who heads the uranium development unit at the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation (CGNPC), the second of China's big nuclear firms. When China announced in a 2006 policy document that it would aim for 40 GW of nuclear capacity by 2020, skeptics noted this meant finding the wherewithal to bring at least two reactors into operation every year. China had 11 reactors in operation by the end of last year. U.S.-based Westinghouse Electric is building four of its new AP1000 reactors in coastal Zhejiang and Shandong provinces. In exchange, China was granted a generous technology transfer agreement that
  • 9. would make the AP1000 the model for its own "localized" reactors. France's Areva agreed to build two of its European Pressurized Reactors for the Taishan nuclear project in southeast China's Guangdong. Read more… With every province and region keen to grab a stake in the lucrative nuclear sector, both CGNPC and CNNC have been scouring the country for potential projects. Every province along the eastern coast is building new reactors, and a multitude of cities in China's interior are also lobbying to become the country's first inland nuclear plant. The need to feed such growing capacity has required the two state-owned giants to hunt the globe for new sources of fuel - with CGNPC chasing uranium reserves in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Australia and Namibia, and CNNC signing deals to explore and develop in Mongolia and Niger. Source: Mining Weekly NUCLEAR POWER EXPANSION IN CHINA STIRS CONCERNS China is preparing to build three times as many nuclear power plants in the coming decade as the rest of the world combined, a breakneck pace with the potential to help slow global warming. China’s nuclear power industry, with 11 reactors operating and construction starting on as many as 10 each year, is not known to have had a serious accident in 15 years. China is already the largest emitter of gases blamed for global warming, and the expansion of nuclear power would at least slow the increase in emissions. The speed of the construction program has raised safety concerns. China has asked for international help in training a force of nuclear inspectors. China is placing many of its nuclear plants near large cities, potentially exposing tens of millions of people to radiation in the event of an accident. In addition, China must maintain nuclear safeguards in a business culture where quality and safety sometimes take a back seat to cost-cutting, profits and outright corruption, as shown by scandals in the food, pharmaceutical, construction and toy industries. Read more… A top-level corruption scandal is already unfolding in the nuclear industry. In August, the Chinese government dismissed and detained the powerful president of the China National Nuclear Corporation, Kang Rixin, in a $260 million corruption case involving allegations of bid-rigging in nuclear power plant construction. The case is a worrisome sign that nuclear executives in China may not always put safety first in their decision-making. “It’s a concern, and that’s why we’re all working together because we hear about these things going on in other industries,” said William P. Poirier, a vice president for Westinghouse Electric, which is building four nuclear reactors in China. Bringing so much nuclear power online over the next decade would reduce the country’s energy-related emissions of global warming gases by about 5 percent, compared with the emissions that would be produced by burning coal to generate the power. But the economy is growing so fast that even if the country can meet its goals, total emissions will rise 72 to 88 percent by 2020, Mr. Sinton said. Source: New York Times IRAQ IS WILD CARD IN WORLD OIL SUPPLY As 2009 draws to a close, surging demand from countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China accounted for 61% of demand growth over the past decade, according to the International Energy Agency. As important, however, was a squeeze on supply. The Energy Policy Research Foundation has estimated disruption caused by factors like war and resource nationalism lowered potential global output by between 2.5 million and 4.5 million barrels per day in the second half of this decade. That is a lot when you consider OPEC's buffer of spare capacity fell below two million barrels per day by mid-2008, when oil prices peaked. A loosening of supply constraints is the major risk to the expectations of a rebound priced into oil futures, especially as demand growth will likely prove lackluster. The wild card is Iraq, where more licenses for foreign oil companies were awarded last week. Contract terms encourage firms to maximize output quickly and winners aim to produce 8.5 million barrels per day. Given Iraq's fragile peace and ravaged infrastructure, that looks unrealistic. But even if production increased by a more conservative 1.5 million barrels per day by 2015, it could pressure oil prices through the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC
  • 10. projects the world will require an extra 3.2 million barrels per day OPEC by 2015. Iraq's increased production would take up more than half of the extra amount required. If sovereign-debt concerns ripple out from places like Dubai to squeeze foreign investment elsewhere, the temptation to pump more oil for cash will increase, pressuring prices. Saudi Arabia, which maintains a large spare capacity and whose public finances can withstand a lower oil price than Iran, will likely bridle at taking all the pain of accommodating Iraq. When oil prices collapsed in 1986 after the second oil shock, it was due to a combination of competing supplies, lackluster demand growth, and a breakdown in OPEC cohesion. Source: Wall Street Journal STOCKS RISE AROUND WORLD ON DUBAI BAILOUT Stocks rose from Shanghai to London as Abu Dhabi provided $10 billion to avert a default by Dubai’s Nakheel PJSC. Abu Dhabi’s pledge reassured investors who sent stock markets tumbling last month on concern defaults would slow the global economic recovery. Dubai’s bailout “puts to rest any lingering fears that might have existed about possible contagion,” said Tim Condon, head of Asia credit research for ING Groep NV in Singapore. “It’s inevitable that we’re going to see a few more incidents of credit stress show up in both banks and corporates, but in terms of it becoming a macro-economic issue I think Dubai World was as close as we were going to get.” The Dubai Financial Market General Index climbed to the highest level this month. Abu Dhabi’s ADX General Index advanced 7.9 percent for the biggest gain since May 2006. Nakheel’s $750 million of Islamic bonds due 2011 surged to 81.4 cents on the dollar from 36 on Dec. 11, according to Citigroup Inc. prices. Source: Bloomberg ABU DHABI TIGHTENS ITS GRIP AS IT OFFERS HELP TO DUBAI By providing a $10 billion lifeline to Dubai, Abu Dhabi has granted its debt-stricken neighbor a critical short-term reprieve from its creditors. But in doing so, it also appears determined to tighten the reins that Dubai has long resisted. For decades, Dubai had claimed a special autonomy from Abu Dhabi, the more conservative seat of the federal government. This freedom let Dubai, which lacks significant oil reserves, establish itself as a city-state that welcomed all comers, from Iranian and Israeli executives to Western tourists and profit-hungry bankers. But the $100 billion or so in liabilities that Dubai accumulated in the process proved to be unsustainable, threatening not only itself but the federation as a whole. But even as Dubai appeared to be bowing to the inevitable, the markets cheered the unexpectedly swift move by Abu Dhabi. It remained unclear exactly how Abu Dhabi came to its decision. Read more… The intensive talks about the true nature of Dubai’s debt problems broke ground in communication and disclosure between the emirates, a sign that from here on, Abu Dhabi will impose a much higher level of scrutiny and supervision over Dubai’s decisions, financial and otherwise. It became clear that what had started as a negotiating ploy by Dubai World with its creditors had become a compounding crisis that threatened the global credibility of not only Dubai, but the United Arab Emirates itself. Dubai World’s standstill created even more of an uproar when a group of foreign hedge funds that had recently become large holders of the bonds of Nakheel, Dubai World’s troubled real estate venture, threatened to drive Dubai World into default by rejecting its proposal to delay interest payments. According to a statement released by Dubai, the $10 billion was to be used to cover the $4.1 billion owed to the Nakheel bondholders as well as to provide money for the company to pay its creditors through April 2010 on the condition that the standstill agreement was accepted. The government also said that it would impose a “comprehensive reorganization law” to help creditors, a step that is likely to result in measures that would allow ailing companies to restructure their debts in a more orderly process. Even with the $10 billion bailout, Dubai remains heavily burdened with debt. Source: New York Times
  • 11. POLITICS PRESIDENT POINTS AT PARLIAMENT‟S CLEAR MISTAKE, VETOS WHOLE BUDGET Parliament members approved MNT 76 billion in the state budget for development of their respective regions and each constituent would get MNT 1 billion each. The state budget was presented to the President of Mongolia on December 4th. The President vetoed the law which was approved by the Parliament. “It is clearly seen from the protocols of the Parliament’s and Standing Committee meetings, that the MPs negotiated to spend MNT 1 billion for their representative constituencies and implement it in the state budget” the President said. He said that this “mistake” contradicts the basic procedures of the State Constitution. The President stated that he regrets the Parliament’s move to cover the unnecessary funding under a different name. The President’s ban is stated in “State Constitution’s 23.1 that a Parliament member is the envoy of the people and must protect the interests of the citizens and the state. In the job description of General Budget Administrator, the budget law contradicts with 30.18 the Budgeted Organization Administration Law and 15.2 of Construction Law”. The President decided to prohibit the whole budget. The Parliament will now discuss it this week. Source: News.mn MPS NEED TO BE STOPPED D. Dorligjav, the Head of the President's Office made a statement about the President's veto of the 2010 budget. He criticized the attitude of investment, said Mr. Dorligjav. The Parliament was supposed to discuss the MNT 500 million per electoral district initially allocated by the Ministry of Finance as an investment for local development projects. However, the amount has been doubled to the contrary. The Mongolian Constitution Referee said that was breaking the Constitution as well as the law of Local Government Management and Finance by allocating the money to Ministries instead of to local governments. Also, the budget covered underestimated construction plans which were one of the main factors of corruption. The President reminded MPs of not repeating the previous wrong practices when estimating the budget. Source: Zuunii Medee MCC BOARD APPROVES RE-ALLOCATION OF $188 MILLION OF GRANTS On December 9, the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s (MCC) Board of Directors approved the allocation of approximately $127 million for two new projects under the Mongolia Compact: the North-South Road and the Energy and Environment Projects. The projects had been proposed by the Government of Mongolia to replace the cancelled Rail Project. Now that the Board has approved the reallocation of funds, over the next month the Governments of the US and of Mongolia must approve an amendment to the Compact to include these new projects and a $50 million expansion of the existing projects that had been approved last September. The total amount re-programmed totals the amount of the original Rail project - $188 million. The two new projects and the expansions will benefit thousands of Mongolians, and will contribute to the economic growth of the country. To support the implementation of the new and expanded projects, approximately $4 million has also been allocated for program administration, environmental assessment, and monitoring and evaluation. In addition, approximately $7 million is allocated for contingency purposes. The United States of America looks forward to our on-going collaboration in implementing the Millennium Challenge Compact with the government and people of Mongolia. Source: MCA.mn RUSSIANS ARE NOT HIDING THEIR INTEREST IN MONGOLIA'S COAL Russia's Railway Association requested USD 1.5 billion from the Russian Government for their project related to Mongolia, according to Vitalii Morozov, Councilor to the President of RRW and the Executive Director of the "Infrastructure Development". Russia has initiated the idea, "Instead of having Tavan Tolgoi, let us build a railway up to Sainshand". Moscow is observing how Mongolia is arguing over the two different directions of the railway projects. The experts say Moscow was not idly observing, but taking part cunningly in the game. Who is going to be the partner for Mongolia's road and transportation infrastructure building? It means exporting Mongolia's minerals will come under the partner's control later. That is why Russia believes that it is vital to get connected to Tavan Tolgoi via Trans Mongolia which will successfully
  • 12. hinder China's road for exporting coal. The nearest opportunity Russia had for getting Tavan Tolgoi was when Vladimir Putin met with the Prime Minister to obtain Tavan Tolgoi through the Russian Consortium including Severstali Resurs, Bazovii Element and Renova. GIG expert Evgenii Bulanov states that Severstali Resurs, who had rich experiences in coal mining, reduced the chance of getting Tavan Tolgoi by leaving the consortium. Because without SR, the other companies would not be able to raise USD 2 billion for getting 49% of Tavan Tolgoi solely. As things turned out, the Russians have the only option which is to obtain TT via participating in a railway construction project through its "Infrastructure Development" company which owns 62.5% of the Mongolia's Railway. So, the Russians are working hard on fundraising now. Source: Zuunii Medee CIVIL PARTICIPATION IMPORTANT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY The National Intelligence Academy conducted a sociologic survey called “National Security and Foreign Policy”. The survey encompassed 4500 citizens of UB and 20 provinces. 70 percent of the participants said influence of big nations and dependence of a country is the main external factor which may impact national security negatively. 20 percent said globalization is the main cause. Analysts said the majority of the people think influence by big nations is increasing in Mongolia. Furthermore, 90 percent of the people said food security is insufficient, 80 percent said civil rights and freedom was not satisfactory. 61.1 percent said economic security was at a low level while 26.5 percent said it does not exist. 21.3 percent thinks Mongolian ecologic security is in extremely dangerous position while 59.9 percent answered it is becoming worse. 35.2 percent of the participants said foreign religions have huge impacts in national security while 42.8 percent said it had a certain impact. Furthermore, 31.3 percent said politics is one of the factors which has a negative impact on people’s unity, 17 percent said it is caused by a difference between rich and poor, 33.6 percent said injustice was the main reason. The survey also showed that 74.3 percent of the people think citizen participation is important for ensuring national security. Source: News.mn 5,000 DOSES OF LONG-AWAITED H1N1 VACCINE ARRIVE Munkhiin tun, a national company which obtained permission for importing 50,000 doses of the H1N1 vaccine, received the first part of 5,000 doses from France this week. The vaccines were handed over to the National Center for the Study of Infectious Diseases. The at-risk group comprising of young children and pregnant women shall get the vaccination shots. Tentatively, all the vaccinations ordered shall be enough for 30% of the entire population of Mongolia. Source: Zuunii Medee ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING PROCEDURES PUT INTO PLACE The Financial Regulation Bureau approved a procedure to prevent money washing and investing in suspicious activities by knowing customers and keeping informed of suspicious cash transfers. The bureau worked with Mongolbank on the procedure which orders financial organizations, insurance companies and bond organizations to inform the higher financial organizations before making a money transfer of MNT 20 million or above. Furthermore, these suspicious transfers can be postponed. Suspicious transfers would mean the source of the money and receiver is not clear. Those customers and organizations transferring money must give detailed information, including name, home address and phone numbers. Source: News.mn CLIMATE CONCERNS PUT ENERGY FOCUS BACK ON URANIUM Uranium is capturing growing attention amid burgeoning demand for power from emerging nations and a scramble to curtail carbon emissions. Many nations have seized on uranium and nuclear power as a carbon-free energy solution despite opposition by environmentalists on safety grounds. The case for uranium is bolstered by estimates that electricity demand is due to surge by up to two- thirds by 2030, driven by emerging nations like China and India. While new plants in the West might face opposition, that is not an issue in China, where the central government is backing ambitious growth plans. Beijing is moving even faster than official targets to
  • 13. boost nuclear power to 40 gigawatts by 2020, a more than four-fold rise. India is building six reactors and has 23 on the drawing boards to add to its existing 17 plants, according to the World Nuclear Association. The current revival in nuclear power comes after decades of decline in the wake of the 1986 Chernobyl accident that sparked widespread fears about safety and a virtual freeze on new plants. Read more… Investors in the sector are looking at the long-term picture, confident that a supply squeeze is looming even if a glut of supplies may cap prices in the short term. "The more that prices are depressed in the short term, the fewer mines that are likely to be built and developed and that could possibly exacerbate any price spike," said Will Smith, a London-based portfolio manager on the Geiger Counter fund run by New City Investment Managers that focuses on uranium producers. Mining groups seeking to meet higher demand for uranium may face obstacles such as government red tape, technical mining problems and the hangover of years of underinvestment. Supplies from dismantled Russian nuclear weapons may help plug shortfalls in mining supply as Moscow seeks to supply China and India as well as lucrative deals with US utilities. Source: Reuters U.S. MOVE MAY GIVE BOOST TO COPENHAGEN CLIMATE TALKS U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has announced that the U.S. is prepared to join other rich countries in raising $100 billion in yearly climate financing for poor countries by 2020. The announcement could give a boost to deadlocked climate talks, which have faltered over disputes between rich and poor countries over emissions cuts and climate financing. Source: Wall Street Journal CLIMATE TALKS NEAR DEAL TO SAVE FORESTS A final draft of the agreement called Reducing Emissions From Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) was given to ministers of 200 countries. Negotiators said all major points had been resolved through compromise. The agreement may turn out to be the most significant achievement to come out of the Copenhagen climate talks, providing a system through which countries can be paid for conserving disappearing natural assets based on their contribution to reducing emissions. A final agreement may not be announced until the end of the week, when President Obama and other world leaders arrive, in part because there has been so little progress on other issues at the climate summit meeting, sponsored by the United Nations. “It is likely to be the most concrete thing that comes out of Copenhagen — and it is a very big thing,” said Fred Krupp, head of the Environmental Defense Fund. For poorer countries, the payments will provide a much-needed new income stream. For richer nations, the lure of the program is not cash but carbon credits that can be used to cancel out, in part, their industrial emissions under a carbon trading system, like the cap-and-trade plan currently under consideration by Congress. Under the cap-and-trade system, companies that cannot meet their greenhouse gas pollution limit could buy extra permits by investing in carbon-reduction programs abroad. Plans to preserve forests under REDD would presumably qualify. The forest program “offers the opportunities for U.S. companies to reduce emissions at lower cost, which is very important politically,” Mr. Krupp said. Ban Ki-moon, secretary general of the United Nations, addressed the delegates Tuesday night as they moved into the final days of negotiations. “We do not have another year to deliberate,” he said. “Nature does not negotiate.” Source: New York Times NORTH KOREA‟S FOUR-PARTY PLOY Last Sunday, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported that the U.S. and North Korea have agreed to resume the four-party talks to formally end the Korean War. By proposing a revival of the troubled negotiations at this time, Pyongyang is up to no good. The North Koreans suggested the revival of the Korean War talks last week during the visit of U.S. special envoy Stephen Bosworth to Pyongyang. The previous round of negotiations to reach a peace agreement, which would replace the 1953 armistice, stalled in 1999 over Pyongyang's objection to the participation of arch-enemy South Korea, which did not sign the 1953 cease-fire. By raising this now, the North Koreans have managed to switch the topic of multilateral
  • 14. negotiations from disarmament to something else. Mr. Bosworth's original mission in Pyongyang was to restart the stalled six-party talks to "denuclearize" the North. The North Koreans have complicated matters by raising an entirely new set of issues. The four-party talks exclude two nations that participate in the six-party process, Russia and Japan. Another danger is that the four-party talks pave the way for Washington and its allies to provide material assistance, should the talks succeed. In recent years, North Korea has become less amenable to giving up its nukes once it has received international support. The U.S. should be wary of propping up the Pyongyang regime right now. The North Korean economy looks like it is in turmoil after the botched demonetization of paper currency two weeks ago that resulted in unrest across the country. By agreeing to the four-party talks, Washington has fallen for an oft-used North Korean ploy. The U.S. has also given up an important advantage by permitting the North Koreans to exclude the Japanese. The prospects for peace in North Asia just got smaller. Read more… The Russians have never taken the disarmament discussions seriously. The Japanese have played a crucial role. Tokyo's diplomats worked hard to make sure Washington did not buckle under Chinese pressure while the U.N. Security Council considered imposing sanctions on the North. That is part of the reason why Pyongyang wants the Japanese out of the picture. With Japan gone, the U.S. loses an important negotiating ally. The exclusion of two countries from the bargaining table gives North Korea an opportunity to employ its classic tactic: divide the powers it faces. Kim has tried to kill the six-party talks from the beginning because he does not want to confront all his adversaries in the same room. In the months ahead, expect Kim to announce that a formal end to the Korean War is a precondition to a six-party deal. Source: Dow Jones SEIZED NORTH KOREA ARMS CACHE RAISES NEW QUESTIONS Thai investigators searching cargo seized from a plane from North Korea have found weaponry that includes missiles uncommon in Southeast Asia, adding to suspicions that the arms were destined for the Middle East or elsewhere. Thai government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said the cache, taken from a plane from Pyongyang that stopped in Bangkok to refuel, included shoulder missiles as well as large rockets, electronics and fire-control systems that "seem to be quite sophisticated." Although inspectors are still working to fully identify the weapons, in Southeast Asia "we don't have these kinds of rockets," he said. The United Nations Security Council approved rules in June that ban North Korea from exporting arms and called on states to inspect its cargoes in their airports and seaports if they are believed to carry banned items. The rules were developed after North Korea tested a nuclear explosive in late May in defiance of U.N. sanctions. The cargo's final destination isn't clear. Some analysts said the arms might have been intended for Myanmar, that has demonstrated closer ties with North Korea and is at risk of ethnic unrest before a national election next year. Some analysts speculated the weapons could have been destined from there for Pakistan, the Middle East, or an African nation such as Sudan. Thai police continue to hold the crew members, four from Kazakhstan and one from Belarus, who were charged with illegal arms possession. They face up to 10 years in prison and have denied knowledge of the weapons, saying they thought they were ferrying oil-drilling equipment. Previously, the plane was owned by companies that the U.S. Treasury Department linked to suspected Russian arms trafficker Viktor Bout, according to AeroTransport Data Bank, an Internet service that tracks aircraft. Source: Wall Street Journal NEW MONGOLIAN LAWS The following addendum to a current Mongolian law was published in a recent weekly Government bulletin. Unless otherwise decided by Parliament, the addendum takes effect (10) days after publication. Date Law 12/11/2009 Addendum to Law on Medicine, medical tools
  • 15. Please visit BCM’s website, Legislative Committee, for a summary of new Mongolian laws. BCM members who wish complete versions of the laws in Mongolian language are welcome to call or email the BCM office (332345; info@bcmongolia.org) ANNOUNCEMENTS PANTHERE MIDLAND AUDIT LLC NAMED NATIONAL COMPANY OF MONGOLIA Roy Dongen, General Director of Panthere Midland Audit LLC, announced that Panthere Midland Audit LLC, a Netherlands (EU)-Mongolian JV, has been elected a National Company of Mongolia. It is joined with three other major Mongolian companies - Jiguur Grand, Sansar Cable and Montrans. This election takes place every 4 years by a combined organization which includes the Tax Authority of Mongolia and the Social Insurance Office. The awards are given to companies that are loyal contributors of taxes and social insurance and that contribute to the development of Mongolia in general. “We would like to thank all our clients and staff members for helping our young organization achieve this within the third year of our establishment”, said Mr. Dongen. _________________________________________ “MM TODAY” ON MNB-TV BCM is pleased to announce that Mongolian National Broadcasting continues its cooperation with BCM on “MM Today”. This English news program is aired every Friday for 10 minutes and is scheduled for 22:25 tonight. Tune in to watch this program that reports stories from today’s BCM NewsWire. SPONSORS ECONOMIC INDICATORS MSE WEEKLY REVIEW For the week ended December 11, 2009, trading activity on the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) totaled 136,600 shares with 33 companies traded. Total market value of transactions was MNT 118.4 million. Total market capitalization of the 358 stock companies listed on the MSE was MNT 590.8 billion, and decreased by MNT 10.4 billion or 1.7% from the previous week.
  • 16. The Top-20 Index decreased by 183.43 points or 3.0% compared to the previous week, closing at 5,911.53 points. The MSE Composite Index decreased by 71.80 points or 2.4% compared to the previous week, closing at 2,988.68 points. Most active stocks traded were: Khuh gan (47,500 shares), APU (39,900 shares), and Genco tur buro (12,000 shares). Major share price percentage gainers were: Selenge sureg (15%), Jinst Uvs (15%), Monnab (14.9%), Eermel (5.5%), and Khuh gan (4.3%). Major share price percentage losers were: Gobi (15.2 %), Gutal (14.9%), Moningbar(13.6 %), Shivee ovoo (9.4%), and NIC (5.9%). INFLATION Year 2006 6.0% [source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia (NSOM)] Year 2007 *15.1% [source: NSOM] Year 2008 *22.1% [source: NSOM] November 30, 2009 *3.5% [source: NSOM] *Year-over-year (y-o-y) CENTRAL BANK POLICY LOAN RATE December 31, 2008 9.75% [source: IMF] March 11, 2009 14.00% [source: IMF] May 12, 2009 12.75% [source: IMF] June 12, 2009 11.50% [source: IMF] September 30, 2009 10.00% [source: IMF] CURRENCY RATES – December 17, 2009 Currency name Currency Rate US dollars USD 1443.17 Euro EUR 2096.57 Japanese yen JPY 16.09 British pound GBP 2346.31 Hong Kong dollar HKD 186.12 Chinese yuan CNY 211.37 Russian ruble RUB 47.72 South Korean won KRW 1.24 Disclaimer: Except for reporting on BCM’s activities, all information in the BCM NewsWire is selected from various news sources. Opinions are those of the respective news sources.