The document outlines three scenarios for future urban development:
1) "Gulliver's World" - cities develop unevenly, with a prosperous core and struggling fringe as basic challenges persist for most.
2) "Massive socio-technical revolution" - a period of decline and upheaval leads to new green, smarter cities with improved quality of life for all.
3) "Triumph of the Triads" - rapid climate change causes infrastructure breakdown and urban tribalism increases as people rely on local warlords for services in a global age of instability.
HMCS Vancouver Pre-Deployment Brief - May 2024 (Web Version).pptx
Oxford "Future of Cities" @ the Harvard GSD
1. The Future of Cities:
Three scenarios for urban futures
A project by the Oxford Programme for the Future of Cities
Presented by:
Noah Raford, DUSP, MIT
nraford@mit.edu
9. Drivers of change
Growing income inequality
Lack of capital availability
Role of centralized governance
Infrastructure decay
Lifestyle change & value shifts
Resource shortages
10. Economic
• Increased division of wealth between rich and poor
• The world’s poor are an increasingly powerful force in urban development
• Current urban development models not t for their emergent needs
• Global warming will disproportionately effect the poor
• International nance will become more important, domestic capital less
• International nance will become more selective, comparing between cities
• Taxation will continue to be a strong determinant of capital ows
• New ecological accounting mechanisms will play an increasing role in real estate
nance and development
• Building obsolescence will become an increasingly important factor
11. Political
• Most city governments will lack the resources to meet increasing citizens
demands
• Weaken central government and open room for other players
• Civil society and community based organisations will be the rst to ll this role
• Bottom-up participatory approaches to development and management will
become important
• Local government will need to shift from regulation to enabling and facilitating
• Boundaries of where city authorities ends will blur, administrative implications are
unclear
• Grassroots' innovation could lead to transformational change
• Insecurity more important factor, with high unemployment and economic, political
and environmental migration
12. Cultural
• Need for new types of education / consciousness change
• Increased social fragmentation as people cling to their identities
• Increasing fragmentation of commercial and social services
• The youth will play a powerful role in urban governance
• Need to strike a balance between short term pro t and growth and long term
needs
• Increasing complexity calls for new kinds of leadership
13. Environmental
• Water will become an ever increasing problem
• Droughts in rural areas will drive people to urban areas
• Global warming and extreme weather will impact urban development
• Most cities have very poor emergency preparedness for environmental disasters
and will be blindsided by change
• Disease return to rst world cities
• May have to consider abandoning cities
14. Technological
• ICT will enable acceleration of social dynamics already in place
• Could have signi cant destabilising effects through asymmetric warfare, etc.
• May allow for breakthroughs in decentralised infrastructure and governance
• ICT enables relocation of activities, such as public administration
• ICT will enable more social surveillance and government control
15. Workshop
Learning journey
Driver identi cation
Sorting key drivers
Scenario snippets
Fleshing out and exploring
implications
Systems mapping
Deeping scenarios
16.
17. Gulliver’s Massive socio- Triumph of the
World technical revolution Triads
