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MEGATRENDS
ByAndersLindgren
Discover the tidal waves of change
shaping our present and future lives
TOP8GLOBAL
The trends that break all other trends
MEGATRENDS are strong global forces
affecting everything and all life on our
planet. By viewing the world from a
distance and over several centuries,
there are 3 revolutionary turning points
and 8 global forces of change that stand
out and break all other trends.
By understanding these deep founded
grass root trends and the forces that have
shaped the society we have today, it is
also easier to predict the future. Especially
if we understand how the different forces
interact.
Our population boom, rapid urbanization,
consumption patterns, manufacturing
methods and technology craze are all
inextricably linked. Anders Lindgren, Futurist,
PR-veteran, Digital Pioneer
and Services Marketer
In the same manner as ocean waves can
amplify one another, the 8 megatrends
are gaining in magnitude and influence,
as they interact with one another.
Together, they are producing the greatest
changes the world has ever seen.
Opposing forces and counter cyclical
trends will surely arise. They tend to
balance things out and are as natural
as life itself. They too, are easier to spot
when we have a good grasp of the waves
of change shaping our past, present
and future lives.
The world is
COMPLEX
To understand the
CHAOS
Simply observe the
CHANGE
From
AFAR
And over
100 years of ups and downs
in the American stock market
Source: Robert Schiller, professor of economics at Yale University
800
1600
400
0
2000
1200
(S&P Index adjusted for inflation)
TIME
You’ll discover the mighty megatrends
HIDDEN behind
all the turmoil
and change…
The megatrends
impact all life and
They are macroeconomic forces,
spanning hundreds of years and
backed by verifiable data
EVERYONE
They are undeniable in their magnitude
Population
boom
Global
connectedness
Wealth
inequality
Technology
rush
Rapid
urbanization
Ferocious
consumption
Digital
transformation
Environmental
degradation
8 mighty MEGATRENDS stand out
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1
2
3
Three revolutionary
TURNING POINTS
The Agricultural Revolution
(16th and 17th Century)
The Industrial Revolution
(18th Century)
The Digital Revolution
(20th and 21st Century)
stand out
Let’s go way, way
BACK IN TIME
Once
UPON A TIME...
Life was
SIMPLE...
Humans
HUNTED...
GATHERED
food…
FOUGHT disasters
and diseases
12,000 YEARS
Life continued like that for
8000 BC
AD 1
6000 BC
4000 BC
2000 BC
1700
10 000 BC
1
Then in the 17th century
we reached a
According to anthropologist it is
the most significant change
in our way of thinking and living
TURNING POINT
Two behavioral shifts ignited
A MONUMENTAL CHANGE
We understood the vital
importance of personal
HYGIENE
It vastly improved our living conditions
We started farming
food crops and animals
for NUTRITION
Historians call it the
Dawn of Civilization
The AGRICULTURAL
REVOLUTION started
Life on Earth
EXPLODED!
In both good ways and bad ways
Population
boom
Global
connectedness
Wealth
inequality
Technology
rush
Rapid
urbanization
Ferocious
consumption
Digital
transformation
Environmental
degradation
Let’s look at the 1st MEGATREND
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
POPULATION
1
boom
Key challenge
The boom will be our doom
if we don't change our ways,
predict experts.
300 millions
We have grown from
1 billion people to
8000 BC
AD 1
6000 BC
4000 BC
2000 BC
1700
1800
The Agricultural revolution
1
billion
5 millions
in just 200 years!
2000
7
billions
YEAR 2016
9
billions
YEAR 20507 BILLION
The strongest growth
will be seen in AFRICA
It’s population
will double by 2050
while Europe’s is
expected to shrink.
The boom has TRIGGERED
explosive growth in all areas
Social
Technical
Creative
2
Shortly after the population boom
started in 18th century
A 2nd revolution
happened
The steam engine
gave it power
The industrial revolution
came with full speed
1950 20001850 19001800
YEAR
2
It fuelled rapid
economic progress
Growth in
world
Domestic
Product
Source: Angus Maddison
30
25
20
15
10
5
TRILLIONDOLLARS
0
1950 20001850 19001800
YEAR
2
became more
efficient
MANUFACTURING
FACTORIES shoot up
like mushrooms
Masses of WORKERS
came searching for jobs
It led to rapid growth of
URBAN AREAS
Population
boom
Global
connectedness
Wealth
inequality
Technology
rush
Rapid
urbanization
Ferocious
consumption
Digital
transformation
Environmental
degradation
That brings us to the 2nd MEGATREND
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
URBANIZATION
Rapid
2
Key challenge
How will we live:
In cities of dreams
or urban nightmares?
In 1800, only 3% of
the world’s population
lived in cities.
Today it’s
By 2030,
two-thirds of the world’s population
WILL RESIDE IN CITIES
Source: United Nations Population Division
Apparently, we are compelled
to crowd together
in big cities
Explosive growth of
MEGACITIES
1970 Today 2030
30 today and counting: The number of megacities with > 10 million
people is expected to grow to over 40 by 2030.
Every year, 70 million people
join the URBAN POPULATION
Through a combination of
migration and childbirth
CLIMATE CHANGES
and wars also force
people to move
Every year millions of refugees migrate
to urban areas in search of a better life
SOURCE: Synthesis Report,
Climate Change, Global
Risks, Challenges &
Decisions
No wonder, we see
such rapid growth of
URBAN AREAS
Our cities are more
DENSELY
Inevitably, this is putting cities’social
fabric and infrastructure under pressure
populated than ever
The cities are struggling
TO KEEP UP
With growing need for houses, transport,
food, water, sanitation, care and education
1 BILLION
The number is expected to rise, despite great
efforts to counteract the problem
people live in
urban slums
Source: UN-Habitat
Air pollution is now
the deadliest form
and the fourth leading risk factor
for premature deaths worldwide
SOURCE: The Cost of Air
Pollution 2016, the World Bank
OF POLLUTION…
Managing urban areas
has become one of
the most important
development challenges
of the 21st century.”
– JOHN WILMOTH, Director of
UN DESA’s Population Division
trying to keep our cities livable for everyone
We face TOUGH
CHOICES…
Quai Branly Museum. Photo courtesy
http://www.verticalgardenpatrickblanc.com/
At the same time
opportunities for
SMART solutions abound
Obviously, there is still
plenty of space in
RURAL AREAS
Only 3% of Earth’s landmass is urbanized
SOURCE: GRUMP
Many urban people
long back to the
In everything from interior to personal
development and housing we can see
groups of people seeking back to their
natural heritage and RURAL LIFE
SOURCE: Jean Viard
and Bertrand Hervieu
COUNTRYSIDE
SMARTER TRANSPORT
and new digital advances
makes rural development
more feasible than ever
Population
boom
Global
connectedness
Wealth
inequality
Technology
rush
Rapid
urbanization
Ferocious
consumption
Digital
transformation
Environmental
degradation
Now, let’s look at the 3rd MEGATREND
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CONSUMPTION
Ferocious
3
Key challenge
Our getting and spending
culture seems to consume
the time to nourish our bonds
with family and nature.
World production
of goods and services
has grown 240-fold
1500
$ 250BILLIONS*
2016
$ 60,000BILLIONS
* In today’s dollars, World economy (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all
final goods and services produced. Source: Angus Maddison and the World Bank
For the privileged
industrialized countries
THE WORLD IS AWASH
in material goods
…have
ABUNDANT
choices
… live
longer
… travel
greater
distances
… love
technology
WE … play
more
… eat
more
The median size of today’s supermarket in the US
are 46,000 square feet (6 x FOOTBALL FIELDS)
Source: Food Marketing Institute
choice of
groceries
ABUNDANT
Average number of items in a US supermarket has
grown from 15,000 in 1980 to 50,000 in 2014
Source: Food Marketing Institute
ABUNDANT
choice of
groceries
The size of a typical grocery store in the 1920’s
was probably around 1,000 square feet
Shopping has
RADICALLY
changed
1908 2016
ABUNDANT
choice of
cars
Average number of
channels per US home
1960
6
2014
189
ABUNDANT
choice of
TV channels
Source: Nielsen
We have become the
greatest consumers
in the history
of life on earth
IN SHORT:
People in
EMERGING
Also want a richer material life and are swiftly
adopting the western consumer culture
like Brazil, China and
India and Russia…
economies
India and China
will be the new
In 2020 the size of the
middle class in Asia Pacific
is expected to overtake
Europe and America
combined
Source: World Bank
BIG SPENDERS
There is a
PARADOX
that puzzles experts
The race for riches
doesn’t seem to
MAKE US HAPPIER
The overwhelming
abundance of
Often causes choice overload
CHOICE
The getting
and spending
Seem to eat away the time to nourish family ties
CULTURE
A good feeling in the body
and peace of mind!
People are made happy
by one thing and
one thing only
SOME CLAIM:
The debate
goes on…
One thing is for
SURE:
Consumerism drives business growth
Population
boom
Global
connectedness
Wealth
inequality
Technology
rush
Rapid
urbanization
Ferocious
consumption
Digital
transformation
Environmental
degradation
That leads us to the 4th MEGATREND
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
TECHNOLOGY
rush
4
Key challenge
We can do incredible
things with technology –
does that mean we
always should?
Time to reach 150
million users, years
Phone TV Cell
phone
iPod Facebook Internet Google
Earth
89
38
14
7 5 4 2
Source: The Magazine Imaging Notes. See also Ray Kurzweil's book The Singularity is Near and The Economist
Adoption of new
technologies is
ACCELERATING
Number of patent
filings in leading
economies
800,000
600,000
400,000
0
200,000
Patents has grown to
DIZZYING HEIGHTS
Source: WIPO,
China
USA
Japan
EU
There’s been a rush of new
TECHNOLOGIES
AGRI-
technology
ROBOTICS-
technology
ENERGY-
technology
BIO-
technology
NANO-
technology
COMMUNICATION-
technology
Two innovations has
We invented the
TRANSISTOR to
help us use and send
electronic signals
It vastly improved our communication
We invented
WRITING and the
PRINTING PRESS
than anything else
MEANT MORE
Writing and printing
has allowed us to
CONQUER THE WORLD
It's pure magic how we have used
the written language to teach each
other things, invent things and
create great wonders.
Writing is possible the most
important single invention
of the last few thousand
years.”
– JARED M. DIAMOND, professor,
University of California, author of
the Pulitzer book Guns, Germs, and
Steel.
The transistor and
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT
The rate of progress
defies the
The first transistor invented in
1947 could be held in your hand
Today the worlds tiniest transistor
is the size of a single molecule
IMAGINATION
Something else is
TRANSFORMING
our society…
Our exploration
of the DIGITAL
UNIVERSE
Population
boom
Global
connectedness
Wealth
inequality
Technology
rush
Rapid
urbanization
Ferocious
consumption
Digital
transformation
Environmental
degradation
That brings us to the 5th MEGATREND
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
DIGITAL
transformation
5
Key challenge
Will the digital world make our lives
more simple and convenient or
more complicated and confusing?
Welcome to the digital
INFORMATION AGE
It all started in the 70’s with a
revolutionaryturningpoint
THE DIGITAL
REVOLUION
All of a sudden, almost every aspect
of life around the world is being
recorded and stored in some digital
information format. That's a real
change in our human ecology.”
– PETER LYMAN, (1940 – 2007)
professor emeritus at UC Berkeley
Size of circles
indicate actual and
expected amount
of digitally stored
information in
the world.
DID YOU KNOW?
We live in an exploding digital universe.
By the start of 2013, there were almost
as many bits of data in our digital universe
as there are known stars in the physical
universe (4.4 zb). By 2020, the amount
is expected to be 10x.
Source: The EMC Digital Universe study
2013
2020
0,1 ZB 44 ZB4,4 ZB
2005
By one calculation,
we’ve created more
information in the last
10 years than in all of
human history before
that.”
– DANIEL LEVITIN, McGill
University psychology professor,
author of The Organized Mind:
Thinking Straight in the Age of
Information Overload.
All of this is more
information than
the brain is
configured to
handle.”
– DANIEL LEVITIN, McGill University
psychology professor, author of The
Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in
the Age of Information Overload.
Never have people had so much
INFORMATION & CONTENT
to choose from
It has radically changed how buyers
READ, SHOP and PROCESS
information
in 7
ways
People are
ADAPTING
their lives
1. We have become digital animals
2. We try to avoid content overload
3. We want things to be easy
4. Everything should happen quickly
5. We seek help and guidance
6. We want to be seen and heard
7. We trust word of mouth
There are only
They read, buy
and shop differently -
so learn about their
differences.
4 types of people
say experts
A stimulus sparks
an interest that
meets a need.
People ask around
and go online to
find out more.
People reevaluate
the purchase
and share their
experiences.
People decide
to buy, join,
sign up etc.
People try demos
and seek proof points
to compare solutions.
People use the
product or
service.
Do what you can to understand
every step of the
CUSTOMERJOURNEY
The better you do it,
the easier it will be to do
and say the right things
in your communication
customer handling
This human quality
will be a key to
empathy
noun | em·pa·thy |
ˈem-pə-thē
The ability to identify
with the situation
and emotions of
other people.
The capacity to
understand what
other beings are
experiencing as if
we were feeling it
ourselves.
SUCCESS
The advances in digital
communications
ONLINE USAGE HAS SOARED
is directly linked to the fact that
LOG OFF
It’s about turning off, shutting down and
logging out from the digital world
mini-boom
Be alert to the
IT’S CALLED DIGITAL DETOX!
On the new digital free resorts,
people are forced to ditch their
smart devices as they check in
Businesses have great
OPPORTUNITIES
To streamline their business
and delivery model
The smart ones utilize
digital technologies
To create a seamless buying
process fit for our digital age
DON’T BE
FOOLED!
There are many dangers lurking
in the shadows of the digital jungle
Today’s world is more interconnected
than ever before. Yet, for all its
advantages, increased connectivity
brings increased risk of theft, fraud,
and abuse. As people become more
reliant on modern technology, we also
become more vulnerable to
cyberattacks.”
– U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
Population
boom
Global
connectedness
Wealth
inequality
Technology
rush
Rapid
urbanization
Ferocious
consumption
Digital
transformation
Environmental
degradation
That leads us to the 6th MEGATREND
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
GLOBAL
connectedness
6
Key challenge
Human survival have always
depended on our ability
to work together as a team.
Now, we are being forced
to manage it on a global scale.
Global trade has
EXPLODED Source: Manfred Steger, Globalization:
A Very Short Introduction, Oxford 2013
2010
$ 15,000BILLIONS
1947
$ 57BILLIONS*
There’s been a surge
in international
CAPITAL FLOWS
Nothing flows
more freely than
INFORMATION
we can connect like never before
With the
WORLD WIDE WEB
as platform…
Map reveals every
connected device
in the world
Source: John Matherly
Through internet
we have instant
world wide reach
In just 4 years time, between 20 and 30 billion
things will be connected to the internet.
In 1992 it was 1 million
Source: Gartner, McKinsey
of the world’s population is
connected to internet today.
In 1995 it was 1%.
Source: Internet Live Stats
40%
25 billion
ENGLISH has become
a truly global language
Source: Neil Reynolds, Spread the word
2016
2000MILLIONS
Growth in English speakers
and learners globally
1582
4MILLIONS
When trade
and information
flows..
CULTURE FLOWS
Labor also find
more ways to cross
BORDERS
It means that things
SPREAD
faster than ever
The good
STUFF
Democratization (voting right is key)
The good
STUFF
Rise of democratization
Number of nations scoring 8 or more
on Polity IV scale, a measure of democracy
Source: The Polity IV project
20
100
80
60
40
But also the really
BAD STUFF
The market is more
VOLATILE
The ups and downs
in American stock market
Source: Robert Schller, professor of economics at Yale University
800
1600
400
0
2000
1200
(S&P Index adjusted for inflation)
People are more
VULNERABLE
The networked world
isn't just a little bigger,
a little faster, and
a little more complex.
It is qualitatively
different.”
– JAMES CLEICK, author,
reporter, and essayist
Everyone
& everything
is inextricably
LINKED
We are especially
linked to this
BLUE BALL
Population
boom
Global
connectedness
Wealth
inequality
Technology
rush
Rapid
urbanization
Ferocious
consumption
Digital
transformation
Environmental
degradation
That brings us to the 7th megatrend
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ENVIRONMENTAL
degradation
7
Key challenge
Did you know? We are eating
away our own natural life
support systems.
As a species,
we have much to be
PROUD OF
… built
wonders
of the
world
…
landed
on the
moon
We
have
… almost
put a stop
to wars
… close to
eliminated
child
mortality
… tamed
wild beasts
Climbing and clawing our way
to be the top rung of the food chain
We have won
the evolutionary
ARMS RACE
In fact, we have
OVERRUN
We have
cut down forest,
drained swamps,
dammed rivers,
flooded plains,
laid railroads and
built skyscraping
megacities
the planet
Our colonization of the planet has been
a disaster for plants and wildlife
The bad news is that we
DESTROY NATURE
in the process
Historical records makes
Homo sapiens look like an
ecological serial killer.”
– YUVAL NOAH HARARI,
professor of history, Hebrew
University of Jerusalem and
author of the international
bestseller Sapiens, A Brief
History of Humankind.
All the experts
give us the same
MESSAGE
United Nations (IPCC),
World Resources Institute,
NASA, IUCN and WWF
The scale of damage
to the natural ecosystems
that are vital to our lives
IS ALARMING
Up to 25% of the
world’s food
production may
become lost due
to environmental
breakdown by
2050 unless
action is taken.”
– UNEP, (United Nations
Environment Programme)
More than 80% of
the natural forests
that once covered
the Earth, have
been destroyed.”
– World Resource Institute,
Global Forests Resources
Assessment 2015
Over the past few
hundred years, humans
have increased the
species extinction
rate by as much as
1,000 times over
background rates
typical over the
planet’s history.”
– World Resource Institute,
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Population sizes of
vertebrate species -
mammals, birds,
reptiles, amphibians,
and fish - have
declined by 52 %
the last 40 years.”
– World Wildlife Fund (WWF)
Living Planet Report 2014
Our planet has lost more than half of its creatures since 1970
IN SHORT:
and the terror of
the ecosystem
THE MASTER OF
THE PLANET
We have become
It’s time to remember a fact
that’s so obvious
IT’S EASY TO FORGET
THE FOOD
you eat
THE WATER
you drink
THE AIR
you breathe
THE FUEL
you use
THE TIMBER
in your house
THE FIBERS
in your clothes
Are all products
of this living
ECOSYSTEM
So, let’s stop
destroying
NATURE
Earth’s natural resources are
the very foundation of our lives
Population
boom
Global
connectedness
Wealth
inequality
Technology
rush
Rapid
urbanization
Ferocious
consumption
Digital
transformation
Environmental
degradation
That brings us to the 8th megatrend
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
inequality
8
Key challenge
Do we really want a society
where a few have a lot
and many have little?
The good news:
Total global wealth just
US and Europa are the main drivers, but also
emerging markets like Asia Pacific and China
HIT A NEW RECORD
New York City is ranked as the
second richest city in the world
after Tokyo
In China and India,
millions have risen out of poverty
to join the working MIDDLE CLASS
The bad news:
The rich and poor gap
is not only chronic,
IT KEEPS WIDENING
The top 1% wealthiest people now own
50% of all household wealth in the world
THE RICHEST
of the rich are
getting richer
SOURCE: Credit Suisse and Oxfam
2 billion people live on less than $3 a day
SOURCE: World Bank
TOO LITTLE
Still, far too many
are living with far
71% of the world’s
population remain
Living on $10 or less per day
SOURCE: Pew Research Centre
LOW INCOME OR POOR
The problem
with these kind of
They are just numbers and hardly touch us
STATISTICS
1%
Hopefully
this touches
YOUR HEART
And motives you to care and act
Extreme unequal
societies break with the
DEMOCRATIC IDEAL
They are neither stable nor sustainable
in the long run
Abraham Lincoln’s legendary
definition of democracy:
“Democracy is the government
of the people, by the people,
for the people.”
The world’s leading
economists ties it all
together for us
Growing income inequality
is the biggest risk the
world may face within
the next 10 years. It
has already squeezed
the middle class in
both developed and
emerging economies.”
– World Economic Forum,
The Global Risks Report 2014
The top 1 per cent have the best houses,
the best educations, the best doctors, and
the best lifestyles, but there is one thing
that money doesn't seem to have bought:
and understanding that their fate is
bound up with how the other 99 per cent live.
Throughout history, this is
something that the top
1 per cent eventually do
learn. Too late.”
– Joseph E. Stiglitz,
winner of the nobel price
in economics
How can we make it bright for all?
THEFUTURE?
What about
The transformation starts in our mind
To transform our future, we must understand
and learn from the past. Looking back on the
12,000 year history of humankind, there has
really been minor changes in our way of
thinking that has ignited monumental
changes.
We understood the importance of having a
language, cultivating food crops, keeping
clean, utilizing technology and working
together.
These five small changes in our mindset
started the greatest revolutions the world
has ever seen.
Perhaps another small change in our way of
thinking will be enough to make life on earth
better for everyone including animals and
plants.
It might be, that the discoveries made by
modern physicists hold the key to the
greatest transformation of all time.
“The universe, including us, is made up of
energy, not matter, and we are all connected”,
the scientist say.
What if they are right?
Perhaps we only need to change our
worldview, to discover that the essential
character of life, is so much more than our
physical bodies and the material world we
see around us?
Maybe we simply need to open our hearts
and minds, to tune into the invisible and
universal energy that connects us all?
It could be, that when we start to get a
sense of this underlying energy, we will
naturally begin to honor ourselves and all
other humans and life forms with the
dignity they deserve.
All the best wishes for a bright future.
Regards,
Recommended books
About the author
Hey, my name is Anders Lindgren. People
who know me well, will label me as a
content marketing specialist, digital
pioneer, PR-veteran and futurist.
I have two decades of experience as a
marketing and communication director for
some of the most renowned brands in the
world, primarily PwC, AT&T and Sopra
Steria. Today, I work as partner for PLOT,
a market strategy consulting firm, based
in Oslo, Norway.
Throughout my career I have been
passionate about understanding the world
around us, sharing insights and helping
people and brands communicate in a way
that makes them shine.
© 2016 Anders Lindgren.
The information in this guide is copyrighted. Sharing and copying is permitted
only if the information remains unchanged and licensee "Anders Lindgren" is
referred to as the source.
The information can not be published in print in any media without the prior
consent of the copyright holder.
Text , design and illustrations : Anders Lindgren
Photos: © Adobe Stock, © Dreamstime
Typefaces : Myriad Pro , Myriad Pro Black and FFAD Matro

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